Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Use of acoustic telemetry techniques to understand the individual variability in movement ecology of juvenile lemon sharks, Negaprion brevirostris, in natural conditions, around Bimini Islands, Bahamas: a comparison study with preliminary personality traits observed in mesocosms

Dissertação de Mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Detecting Free Riders in Collective Brands through a Hierarchical Choice Process

Free-riding behaviors exist in tourism and they should be analyzed from a comprehensive perspective; while the literature has mainly focused on free riders operating in a destination, the destinations themselves might also free ride when they are under the umbrella of a collective brand. The objective of this article is to detect potential free-riding destinations by estimating the contribution of the different individual destinations to their collective brands, from the point of view of consumer perception. We argue that these individual contributions can be better understood by reflecting the various stages that tourists follow to reach their final decision. A hierarchical choice process is proposed in which the following choices are nested (not independent): “whether to buy,” “what collective brand to buy,” and “what individual brand to buy.” A Mixed Logit model confirms this sequence, which permits estimation of individual contributions and detection of free riders.

Umbrella pine above ground biomass estimation with very high spatial resolution satellite images

Above ground biomass is frequently estimated with forest inventory data and an extrapolation method for the per unit area evaluations. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. In this study above ground biomass functions, whose independent variable is crown horizontal projection, were developed. Multi-resolution segmentation method and object-oriented classification, based on very high spatial resolution satellite images, were used to obtain the area of tree crown horizontal projection for umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.). A set of inventory plots were measured and with existing allometric functions for this species above ground biomass per tree and per plot were calculated. The two data sets were used to fit linear functions both for individual plot and their cumulative values. The results show a good performance of the models. Errors smaller than 10% are obtained for stand areas greater than 1.4 ha. These functions have the advantages of estimating above ground biomass for all the area under study or surveillance, not requiring forest inventory; allow monitoring in short time periods; and are easily implemented in a geographical information system environment.

Comparison of multitemporal MODIS-EVI smoothing algorithms and its contribution to crop monitoring.

Crop monitoring and more generally land use change detection are of primary importance in order to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics and its impacts on environment. This aspect is especially true in such a region as the State of Mato Grosso (south of the Brazilian Amazon Basin) which hosts an intensive pioneer front. Deforestation in this region as often been explained by soybean expansion in the last three decades. Remote sensing techniques may now represent an efficient and objective manner to quantify how crops expansion really represents a factor of deforestation through crop mapping studies. Due to the special characteristics of the soybean productions' farms in Mato Grosso (area varying between 1000 hectares and 40000 hectares and individual fields often bigger than 100 hectares), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with a near daily temporal resolution and 250 m spatial resolution can be considered as adequate resources to crop mapping. Especially, multitemporal vegetation indices (VI) studies have been currently used to realize this task [1] [2]. In this study, 16-days compositions of EVI (MODQ13 product) data are used. However, although these data are already processed, multitemporal VI profiles still remain noisy due to cloudiness (which is extremely frequent in a tropical region such as south Amazon Basin), sensor problems, errors in atmospheric corrections or BRDF effect. Thus, many works tried to develop algorithms that could smooth the multitemporal VI profiles in order to improve further classification. The goal of this study is to compare and test different smoothing algorithms in order to select the one which satisfies better to the demand which is classifying crop classes. Those classes correspond to 6 different agricultural managements observed in Mato Grosso through an intensive field work which resulted in mapping more than 1000 individual fields. The agricultural managements above mentioned are based on combination of soy, cotton, corn, millet and sorghum crops sowed in single or double crop systems. Due to the difficulty in separating certain classes because of too similar agricultural calendars, the classification will be reduced to 3 classes : Cotton (single crop), Soy and cotton (double crop), soy (single or double crop with corn, millet or sorghum). The classification will use training data obtained in the 2005-2006 harvest and then be tested on the 2006-2007 harvest. In a first step, four smoothing techniques are presented and criticized. Those techniques are Best Index Slope Extraction (BISE) [3], Mean Value Iteration (MVI) [4], Weighted Least Squares (WLS) [5] and Savitzky-Golay Filter (SG) [6] [7]. These techniques are then implemented and visually compared on a few individual pixels so that it allows doing a first selection between the five studied techniques. The WLS and SG techniques are selected according to criteria proposed by [8]. Those criteria are: ability in eliminating frequent noises, conserving the upper values of the VI profiles and keeping the temporality of the profiles. Those selected algorithms are then programmed and applied to the MODIS/TERRA EVI data (16-days composition periods). Tests of separability are realized based on the Jeffries-Matusita distance in order to see if the algorithms managed in improving the potential of differentiation between the classes. Those tests are realized on the overall profile (comprising 23 MODIS images) as well as on each MODIS sub-period of the profile [1]. This last test is a double interest process because it allows comparing the smoothing techniques and also enables to select a set of images which carries more information on the separability between the classes. Those selected dates can then be used to realize a supervised classification. Here three different classifiers are tested to evaluate if the smoothing techniques as a particular effect on the classification depending on the classifiers used. Those classifiers are Maximum Likelihood classifier, Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classifier and CHAID Improved Decision tree. It appears through the separability tests on the overall process that the smoothed profiles don't improve efficiently the potential of discrimination between classes when compared with the original data. However, the same tests realized on the MODIS sub-periods show better results obtained with the smoothed algorithms. The results of the classification confirm this first analyze. The Kappa coefficients are always better with the smoothing techniques and the results obtained with the WLS and SG smoothed profiles are nearly equal. However, the results are different depending on the classifier used. The impact of the smoothing algorithms is much better while using the decision tree model. Indeed, it allows a gain of 0.1 in the Kappa coefficient. While using the Maximum Likelihood end SAM models, the gain remains positive but is much lower (Kappa improved of 0.02 only). Thus, this work's aim is to prove the utility in smoothing the VI profiles in order to improve the final results. However, the choice of the smoothing algorithm has to be made considering the original data used and the classifier models used. In that case the Savitzky-Golay filter gave the better results.

Non-gaussian Spatial Correlations Dramatically Weaken Localization.

We perform variational studies of the interaction-localization problem to describe the interaction-induced renormalizations of the effective (screened) random potential seen by quasiparticles. Here we present results of careful finite-size scaling studies for the conductance of disordered Hubbard chains at half-filling and zero temperature. While our results indicate that quasiparticle wave functions remain exponentially localized even in the presence of moderate to strong repulsive interactions, we show that interactions produce a strong decrease of the characteristic conductance scale g^{*} signaling the crossover to strong localization. This effect, which cannot be captured by a simple renormalization of the disorder strength, instead reflects a peculiar non-Gaussian form of the spatial correlations of the screened disordered potential, a hitherto neglected mechanism to dramatically reduce the impact of Anderson localization (interference) effects.

As atividades ludicas e a criança com paralisia cerebral : o jogo, o brinquedo e a brincadeira no cotidiano da criança e da familia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Desenvolvimento de ferramentas de análise de desempenho de atletas em 3 diferentes modalidades : Handebol, Provas Combinadas e Salto com Vara

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Jogos desportivos coletivos e os estimulos das inteligencias multiplas : bases para uma proposta em pedagogia do esporte

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Síndrome do X Frágil com variante de Dandy-Walker: estudo clínico das manifestações comunicativas orais e escritas

A síndrome do X Frágil é a causa mais frequente de deficiência intelectual hereditária. A variante de Dandy-Walker trata-se de uma constelação específica de achados neurorradiológicos. Este estudo relata achados da comunicação oral e escrita de um menino de 15 anos com diagnóstico clínico e molecular da síndrome do X-Frágil e achados de neuroimagem do encéfalo compatíveis com variante de Dandy-Walker. A avaliação fonoaudiológica foi realizada por meio da Observação do Comportamento Comunicativo, aplicação do ABFW - Teste de Linguagem Infantil - Fonologia, Perfil de Habilidades Fonológicas, Teste de Desempenho Escolar, Teste Illinois de Habilidades Psicolinguísticas, avaliação do sistema estomatognático e avaliação audiológica. Observou-se: alteração de linguagem oral quanto às habilidades fonológicas, semânticas, pragmáticas e morfossintáticas; déficits nas habilidades psicolinguísticas (recepção auditiva, expressão verbal, combinação de sons, memória sequencial auditiva e visual, closura auditiva, associação auditiva e visual); e alterações morfológicas e funcionais do sistema estomatognático. Na leitura verificou-se dificuldades na decodificação dos símbolos gráficos e na escrita havia omissões, aglutinações e representações múltiplas com o uso predominante de vogais e dificuldades na organização viso-espacial. Em matemática, apesar do reconhecimento numérico, não realizou operações aritméticas. Não foram observadas alterações na avaliação audiológica periférica. A constelação de sintomas comportamentais, cognitivos, linguísticos e perceptivos, previstos na síndrome do X-Frágil, somada às alterações estruturais do sistema nervoso central, pertencentes à variante de Dandy-Walker, trouxeram interferências marcantes no desenvolvimento das habilidades comunicativas, no aprendizado da leitura e escrita e na integração social do indivíduo.

T-Bar clasp-retained removable partial denture as an alternative to implant-based prosthetic treatment

This article reports the case of a 55-year-old female patient who presented with unsatisfactory temporary crowns in the right mandibular premolars and molars, and a premolar-to-molar fixed partial denture in the left side. The clinical and radiographic examinations revealed a fracture of the left first premolar that was a retainer of the fixed partial denture and required extraction. Initially, the acrylic resin crowns were replaced by new ones, and a provisional RPD was made using acrylic resin and orthodontic wire clasps to resolve the problem arising from the loss of the fixed partial denture. Considering the patient's high esthetic demands, the treatment options for the definitive prosthetic treatment were discussed with her and rehabilitation with implant-supported dentures was proposed because the clinical conditions of the residual alveolar ridge were suitable for implant installation, and the patient's general health was excellent. However, the patient did not agree because she knew of a failed case of implant-retained denture in a diabetic individual and was concerned. The patient was fully informed that implant installation was the best indication for her case, but the arguments were not sufficient to change her decision. The treatment possibilities were presented and the patient opted for a clasp-retained removable partial denture (RPD) associated with the placement of crowns in the pillar teeth. The temporary RPD was replaced by the definitive RPD constructed subsequently. Although RPD was not the first choice, satisfactory esthetic and functional outcomes were achieved, overcaming the patient's expectations. This case report illustrates that the dentist must be prepared to deal with situations where, for reasons that cannot be managed, the patient does not accept the treatment considered as the most indicated for his/her case. Alternatives must be proposed and the functional and esthetic requirements must be fulfilled in the best possible manner.

Bond strength of a pit-and-fissure sealant associated to etch-and-rinse and self-etching adhesive systems to saliva-contaminated enamel: individual vs. simultaneous light curing

This study evaluated in vitro the shear bond strength (SBS) of a resin-based pit-and-fissure sealant [Fluroshield (F), Dentsply/Caulk] associated with either an etch-and-rinse [Adper Single Bond 2 (SB), 3M/ESPE] or a self-etching adhesive system [Clearfil S3 Bond (S3), Kuraray Co., Ltd.] to saliva-contaminated enamel, comparing two curing protocols: individual light curing of the adhesive system and the sealant or simultaneous curing of both materials. Mesial and distal enamel surfaces from 45 sound third molars were randomly assigned to 6 groups (n=15), according to the bonding technique: I - F was applied to 37% phosphoric acid etched enamel. The other groups were contaminated with fresh human saliva (0.01 mL; 10 s) after acid etching: II - SB and F were light cured separately; III - SB and F were light cured together; IV - S3 and F were light cured separately; V - S3 and F were light cured simultaneously; VI - F was applied to saliva-contaminated, acid-etched enamel without an intermediate bonding agent layer. SBS was tested to failure in a universal testing machine at 0.5 mm/min. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA and Fisher's test (α=0.05).The debonded specimens were examined with a stereomicroscope to assess the failure modes. Three representative specimens from each group were observed under scanning electron microscopy for a qualitative analysis. Mean SBS in MPa were: I-12.28 (±4.29); II-8.57 (±3.19); III-7.97 (±2.16); IV-12.56 (±3.11); V-11.45 (±3.77); and VI-7.47 (±1.99). In conclusion, individual or simultaneous curing of the intermediate bonding agent layer and the resin sealant did not seem to affect bond strength to saliva-contaminated enamel. S3/F presented significantly higher SBS than the that of the groups treated with SB etch-and-rinse adhesive system and similar SBS to that of the control group, in which the sealant was applied under ideal dry, noncontaminated conditions.

Spatial pattern detection modeling of thrips (Thrips tabaci) on onion fields

Onion (Allium cepa) is one of the most cultivated and consumed vegetables in Brazil and its importance is due to the large laborforce involved. One of the main pests that affect this crop is the Onion Thrips (Thrips tabaci), but the spatial distribution of this insect, although important, has not been considered in crop management recommendations, experimental planning or sampling procedures. Our purpose here is to consider statistical tools to detect and model spatial patterns of the occurrence of the onion thrips. In order to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of the Onion Thrips a survey was carried out to record the number of insects in each development phase on onion plant leaves, on different dates and sample locations, in four rural properties with neighboring farms under different infestation levels and planting methods. The Mantel randomization test proved to be a useful tool to test for spatial correlation which, when detected, was described by a mixed spatial Poisson model with a geostatistical random component and parameters allowing for a characterization of the spatial pattern, as well as the production of prediction maps of susceptibility to levels of infestation throughout the area.

A comparison of the leaf-litter ant fauna in a secondary atlantic forest with an adjacent pine plantation in southeastern Brazil

We investigated the influence of Pinus afforestation on the structure of leaf-litter ant communities in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest, studying an old secondary forest and a nearly 30 year-old never managed Pinus elliottii reforested area. A total of 12,826 individual ants distributed among 95 species and 32 genera were obtained from 50 1 m² samples/ habitat. Of these, 60 species were recorded in the pine plantation and 82 in the area of Atlantic forest; almost 50% of the species found in the secondary forest area were also present in the pine plantation. The number of species per sample was significantly higher in the secondary forest than in the pine plantation. Forest-adapted taxa are the most responsible for ant species richness differences between areas, and the pine plantation is richer in species classified as soil or litter omnivorous-dominants. The specialized ant predators registered in the pine plantation, as seven Dacetini, two Basiceros, two Attini and two Discothyrea, belong to widely distributed species. The NMDS (non-metric multidimensional scaling) ordination also suggested strong differences in similarity among samples of the two areas. Furthermore, this analysis indicated higher sample heterogeneity in the secondary forest, with two clusters of species, while in the pine plantation the species belong to a single cluster. We applied the ant mosaic hypothesis to explain the distribution of the leaf-litter fauna and spatial autocorrelation tests among samples. We argue that the results are likely related to differences in quality and distribution of the leaf-litter between the pine plantation and the secondary area.

The impact of spatial data redundancy on SOLAP query performance

Geographic Data Warehouses (GDW) are one of the main technologies used in decision-making processes and spatial analysis, and the literature proposes several conceptual and logical data models for GDW. However, little effort has been focused on studying how spatial data redundancy affects SOLAP (Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing) query performance over GDW. In this paper, we investigate this issue. Firstly, we compare redundant and non-redundant GDW schemas and conclude that redundancy is related to high performance losses. We also analyze the issue of indexing, aiming at improving SOLAP query performance on a redundant GDW. Comparisons of the SB-index approach, the star-join aided by R-tree and the star-join aided by GiST indicate that the SB-index significantly improves the elapsed time in query processing from 25% up to 99% with regard to SOLAP queries defined over the spatial predicates of intersection, enclosure and containment and applied to roll-up and drill-down operations. We also investigate the impact of the increase in data volume on the performance. The increase did not impair the performance of the SB-index, which highly improved the elapsed time in query processing. Performance tests also show that the SB-index is far more compact than the star-join, requiring only a small fraction of at most 0.20% of the volume. Moreover, we propose a specific enhancement of the SB-index to deal with spatial data redundancy. This enhancement improved performance from 80 to 91% for redundant GDW schemas.