An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Identidade e participação da comunidade rural nos processos de desenvolvimento local:desafios e competências do regulado de Nhambita-Moçambique

This thesis is defined as a reflection on the mechanisms of expression and insertion of the homo situs in the participatory governance in Mozambique. For a better understanding of this social fact, it was settled a periodization which covered the decline of colonialism at the time of the independence, which was proclaimed in June 1975, the civil war that lasted over 16 years and the period of the democratic State, further established. Therefore, we sought to understand the mechanisms and failures of the participation of the homo situs in local development projects that absorbed the needs and problems of these peasants, not mobilizing the skills and social competences of these communities. It would be essential for the homo situs a genuine democratic practice involving a political culture based on the social construction of the territories of the traditional man which was characterized by being procedural and historical, finding in participation its higher base. In this context, it would be desirable that the community development in Mozambique could contemplate and respect the choices of the homo situs. For this purpose, it would be fundamental the consistency between theory and practice, which builds and rebuilds, continually the competence of the peasants, facilitating the possibility of realization of their primordial aspirations. In the research, it became apparent that there is not a continuous process of participation of the rural communities, which appear as participants, only at the time of the implementation of the activities. Therefore, even having the participation of the communities expected by the law, with predictable moments of discussion and necessary conditions for that, the State failed to establish an ongoing process of democratic dialogue with traditional populations, as well as it failed to organize, properly, accurate informational bases to help solve the problems of rural areas. These facts have led to obstacles to the process of conquest of the human and civil rights of the traditional communities

Os saberes em potencial da atividade policial ostensiva: sistematizando modelos a partir da experiência potiguar

This work of research presents an investigation into the knowledge related to the ostensive policing activities of a group of the Rio Grande do Norte State Military Police Captains. This knowledge, which is decisive and part of Brazilian Military Police Constitutional matters, must be taken into consideration when it comes down to planning and putting into force the services related to ostensive public security. Thus, a historical and social analysis about the formation of the police by starting from foreigner experiences down to Rio Grande do Norte s reality, led by such knowledge, was made. Further, studying Brazilian and local scene, this knowledge was analyzed on the ostensive policing activities as for the principles of the Brazilian National Public Security Plan, Brazilian Classification of Occupations / CBO 2002, the reference documents and studies for police graduation Curricular Basis and Matrix; the Variables of Ostensive Policing, as well as some important competences of police service. Arguing that this knowledge is somehow related to what is presented in this work as Orientation Axis to Military Police Service , research tools such as Critical Case Solution and the answers to the Questionnaire on Fundamental Areas of Military Police Service , having in the end six knowledge models related to ostensive policing activities were used within that group. This knowledge can be classified in three distinct categories of connotations within the military police activity: one with reactive/repressive characteristics being the most predominant; the second as preventive; and another one that revealed that the military police activity is being misused for actions and/or missions outside the scope of action of military police

Educação ambiental: mediações sociais e políticas e a indolência do Poder Público à sua inclusão no ensino formal

As a result of the prediction of irreversible changes on necessary conditions to maintain life, including human, on the planet, environmental education got the spotlight in the political scenario, due to social pressure for the development of individual and collective values, knowledge, skills, attitudes and competences towards environmental preservation. In Brazil, only in 1999 the right for environmental education was officially granted to people, having the status of essential and permanent component in the country s education. Since then, it has been Government s duty, in each federal branch, to plan actions to make it happen, in an articulate way in all levels and modalities of the education process, both formally and informally. This work of research has environmental education in the school as subject matter, and aims on analyzing social and political mediations established between this National Environmental Education policy and the contexts associated to the legislative production process, the political nature of the conceptions about environmental education that underlie Law 9.795/99 (Brazil, 2009c) and also Rio Grande do Norte Government s actions and omissions related to the imperative nature of the insertion of environmental education in the schools ran by the state, during the ten years this law has been in force. The investigation of the subject matter was led by a social and historical understanding of the social and environmental phenomena, as well as of the education system as a whole, considering that only through a dialectical view we can see the real world, by destroying the pseudo-concreteness that surrounds the topic. While analyzing, we assumed that in face of the dominance of a social organization in which market regulations rule on environmental ones, by developing individual and collective critical conscience, environmental education can become a threat to dominant economical interests in exploiting natural resources. The results of this research suggest that as an educational practice to be developed in an integrated, continuous and permanent fashion in all levels and modalities of formal education, environmental education has not yet come to pass in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, due to the neglect and disrespect of the government when facing the need of promoting the necessary and legally appointed measures to make it present in the basic education provided by the state. The legislators silence when it comes to approving a regulation on environmental education essential to define policies, rules and criteria to teaching the subject in the state and the omission from the public administration regarding critical actions in order to integrate in public schools the activities related to the National Environmental Education Policy, represent a political decision for not doing anything, despite the legal demand for an active position. This neglecting attitude for the actualizing of strategically concrete actions, urgent and properly planned for the implementation of environmental education in schools in a multidisciplinary way, exposes the lack of interest the predominant classes have in such kind of education being made available, as it could be developed based on a critic political view, becoming a political and educational action against dominance. When analyzing the basic principles and fundamental goals in Law 9.795/99 (Brazil, 2009c) the development of a critic environmental education is really possible and concurs with the National Environmental Education Policy, reflecting the social and political mediations established between this public policy and the contexts associated to its legislative production process, which are responsible for approving a regulation which also represents the mind of the people about environmental protection above anything else

O processo de constituição histórica das diretrizes curriculares na formação de professores de Educação Física

Os processos históricos que permeiam as diretrizes curriculares possibilitaram enxergar quais são as idéias e as preocupações para com a formação de professores no âmbito da Educação Física. Dentro desse contexto, o objetivo foi averiguar, nas políticas públicas de formação de professor dessa disciplina, como ocorreu o processo de qualificação e certificação, buscando entender as justificativas que orientaram a regulamentação dos normativos legais de 1939 a 2004. Portanto, trata-se de um estudo descritivo, de análise qualitativa, tendo como fonte primária as Diretrizes Curriculares veiculada pela imprensa oficial. As novas Diretrizes Curriculares (Resoluções CNE/CP 01/2002, 02/2002 e 7/2004) apontaram perspectivas na formação de um professor mais qualificado para o seu campo de atuação, priorizando a questão da dimensão política da profissão, das competências e do corpo de conhecimento da área. Embora haja progressos em relação aos normativos anteriores, chama-se atenção para a necessidade de que as propostas em construção façam a mediação entre a proposta atual, o percurso histórico do próprio curso e a relação teoria-prática, visando o equilíbrio na formação. A proposta das novas diretrizes não deixa de evidenciar avanços significativos no horizonte da profissionalidade docente e da identidade profissional docente. da mesma forma, para o leitor ou estudioso atento, não deixa de causar preocupação o excesso de competências técnicas colocadas, passando-se a impressão de que agora o que vale é o primado do saber fazer.

Projetos políticos pedagógicos dos cursos de Odontologia do RN : formação profissional e a perspectiva da atenção à terceira idade

Brazil has been undergoing major demographic change.According to IBGE, the next 20 years the country's elderly population may reach over 30 million people. This tariff provides specifics regarding the process of health / disease. It is essential that higher education institutions are committed to this demand in view of the integrated training of health needs of society. The aim of this study is to analyze the Pedagogical Political Projects (PPP) of courses in dentistry in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), according to the national curriculum guidelines (DCNS) and training from the perspective of health care for the elderly. This is an exploratory study with a qualitative approach: with records and interviews. The study subjects were an Assistant Professor in the development of PPPs for each institution. The scenario in this study were dental training institutions in the newborns. Initially, the analysis of the PPP was by using the Alceste 4.9 software. The interpretation of the contents of interviews with teachers was done through content analysis of Bardin (2010). The PPPs are based on the DCNS, meet the characteristics of regional and seek a generalist, but still strongly directed to technical and scientific aspects of professional practice. Efforts and institutional approaches, involving teachers and students of the courses are being mobilized for training with more articulated network of health services. However, the emphasis on content pertaining to the health care of the elderly, is still limited when compared to those targeted content inherent in children and adolescents in all three curricular structures. It is reasonable to conclude that the historical, political, scientific, cultural and social, present in society, influence the formation of the dental professional RN. The greater participation of society in the process of vocational training in dentistry is needed. This can be done from the involvement of universities with health councils, bodies representing the dental profession and other segments of civil society in order to induce changes that generate ideas and educational practices integrative and interdisciplinary, with emphasis on continuing education for teachers, servants, employees and students. Containing conduct this process inherent flexibility of curriculum, teaching-service integration and coordination abilities and professional skills that are essential to understanding the human being and its complexities

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)