Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". METHODS: Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25-64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as USD per capita per year. RESULTS: 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%). Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (> or =140/90 mmHg or treatment) of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (> or =6.2 mmol/l); 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (<1.0 mmol/l); 9.3% for diabetes (fasting glucose > or =7.0 mmol/l); 17.5% for smoking; 25.1% for obesity (body mass index > or =30 kg/m2) and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to USD 45.6, i.e. 11.2 dollars for high blood pressure, 3.8 dollars for diabetes, and 30.6 dollars for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia). Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to 22.6 dollars. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

Utility scores associated with the world health organisation drinking risk-level classification in alcohol dependence

BACKGROUND: Extensive research exists estimating the effect hazardous alcohol¦use on morbidity and mortality, but little research quantifies the association between¦alcohol consumption and utility scores in patients with alcohol dependence.¦In the context of comparative research, the World Health Organisation (WHO)¦proposed to categorise the risk for alcohol-related acute and chronic harm according¦to patients' average daily alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To estimate utility¦scores associated with each category of the WHO drinking risk-level classification¦in patients with alcohol dependence (AD). METHODS: We used data from¦CONTROL, an observational cohort study including 143 AD patients from the Alcohol¦Treatment Center at Lausanne University Hospital, followed for 12 months.¦Average daily alcohol consumption was assessed monthly using the Timeline Follow-¦back method and patients were categorised according to the WHO drinking¦risk-level classification: abstinent, low, medium, high and very high. Other measures¦as sociodemographic characteristics and utility scores derived from the EuroQoL¦5-Dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D) were collected every three months.¦Mixed models for repeated measures were used to estimate mean utility scores¦associated with WHO drinking risk-level categories. RESULTS: A total of 143 patients¦were included and the 12-month follow-up permitting the assessment of¦1318 person-months. At baseline the mean age of the patients was 44.6 (SD 11.8)¦and the majority of patients was male (63.6%). Using repeated measures analysis,¦utility scores decreased with increasing drinking levels, ranging from 0.80 in abstinent¦patients to 0.62 in patients with very high risk drinking level (p_0.0001).¦CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of patients with alcohol dependence undergoing¦specialized care, utility scores estimated from the EQ-5D appeared to substantially¦and consistently vary according to patients' WHO drinking level.

Changes over time in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and use of lipid-lowering drugs in HIV-infected individuals and impact on myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Because of the known relationship between exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease (CVD), it has become increasingly important to intervene against risk of CVD in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We evaluated changes in risk factors for CVD and the use of lipid-lowering therapy in HIV-infected individuals and assessed the impact of any changes on the incidence of myocardial infarction. METHODS: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study is a collaboration of 11 cohorts of HIV-infected patients that included follow-up for 33,389 HIV-infected patients from December 1999 through February 2006. RESULTS: The proportion of patients at high risk of CVD increased from 35.3% during 1999-2000 to 41.3% during 2005-2006. Of 28,985 patients, 2801 (9.7%) initiated lipid-lowering therapy; initiation of lipid-lowering therapy was more common for those with abnormal lipid values and those with traditional risk factors for CVD (male sex, older age, higher body mass index [calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], family and personal history of CVD, and diabetes mellitus). After controlling for these, use of lipid-lowering drugs became relatively less common over time. The incidence of myocardial infarction (0.32 cases per 100 person-years [PY]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.35 cases per 100 PY) appeared to remain stable. However, after controlling for changes in risk factors for CVD, the rate decreased over time (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 0.73 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.50-1.05 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 0.64 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.44-0.94 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.36 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.24-0.56 cases per 100 PY]). Further adjustment for lipid levels attenuated the relative rates towards unity (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 1.06 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.63-1.77 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 1.02 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.61-1.71 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.63 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.36-1.09 cases per 100 PY]). CONCLUSIONS: Although the CVD risk profile among patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study has decreased since 1999, rates have remained relatively stable, possibly as a result of a more aggressive approach towards managing the risk of CVD.

Risque thrombotique sous procréation médicalement assistée [Thrombotic risk in assisted reproductive technology].

Use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasing in many developed countries. Arterial and venous thromboembolic complications are reported during ART with an incidence of 0.1%. The development of these events has been mainly ascribed to the presence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Precise mechanisms by which OHSS and exogenous hormonal stimulation used in ART induce thromboembolic events remain unclear. However, vascular endothelial growth factor secreted during OHSS, high estradiol concentrations, and blood hyperviscosity play a major role in inducing a prothrombotic state. Therefore, before planning an ART, individual thromboembolic risk should be assessed and thromboprophylaxis offered to high risk patients. Prophylaxis should be initiated in women who develop moderate-to-severe OHSS.

Risk factors of stroke mortality in the African region: a cohort study

Background: Population-based cohort studies of risk factors of stroke are scarce in developing countries and none has been done in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state where the majority of the population is of African descent. Such data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three examination surveys of cardiovascular risk factors were performed in independent samples representative of the general population aged 25-64 in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n=1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline risk factors data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007 (all deaths are medically certified in the Seychelles and kept in an electronic database). We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields in the death certificates for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 2479 persons aged 35-64 at baseline, 280 died including 56 with stroke during follow up (maximum: 18.2 years; mean: 10.2 years). In this age range, age-adjusted mortality rates (/100'000/year) were 969 for all cause and 187 for stroke; age-adjusted prevalence of high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) was 48%. In multivariate Cox survival time regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p<0.001). Stroke mortality was also associated with age, smoking ≥5 cigarettes vs. no smoking (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8) and diabetes (HR: 1.9; 1.02-3.6) but not with sex, LDL-cholesterol intake, alcohol intake and professional occupation. Conclusion. This first population-based cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms associations with high BP and other risk factors. This emphasizes the importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in high risk individuals and in the general population as a main strategy to reduce the burden of stroke.

Cardiovascular risk factor profiles and their social gradient from adolescence to age 74 in a Swiss region.

BACKGROUND: Few European studies have investigated how cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) in adults relate to those observed in younger generations. OBJECTIVE: To explore this issue in a Swiss region using two population health surveys of 3636 adolescents ages 9-19 years and 3299 adults ages 25-74 years. METHODS: Age patterns of continuous CRF were estimated by robust locally weighted regression and those of high-risk groups were calculated using adult criteria with appropriate adjustment for children. RESULTS: Gender differences in height, weight, blood pressure, and HDL cholesterol observed in adults were found to emerge in adolescents. Overweight, affecting 10-12% of adolescents, was increasing steeply in young adults (three times among males and twice among females) in parallel with inactivity. Median age at smoking initiation was decreasing rapidly from 18 to 20 years in young adults to 15 in adolescents. A statistically significant social gradient in disfavor of the lower education level was observed for overweight in all age groups of women above 16 (odds ratios (ORs) 2.4 to 3.3, P < 0.01), for inactivity in adult males (ORs 1.6 to 2.0, P < 0.05), and for regular smoking in older adolescents (OR 1.9 for males, 2.7 for females, P < 0.005), but not for elevated blood pressure. CONCLUSION: Discontinuities in the cross-sectional age patterns of CRF indicated the emergence of a social gradient and the need for preventive actions against the early adoption of persistent unhealthy behaviors, to which low-educated girls and women are particularly exposed.

High prevalence of osteoporosis in Swiss women aged 60 and older: a 2-year pilot screening campaign.

Background: Osteoporosis (OP) is frequent in postmenopausal women, but remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. In Switzerland, DXA is not reimbursed by the insurances for screening, even if it is recommended to test women's Bone Mineral Density (BMD) at the age of 65. Methods: To assess the feasibility of a screening program for OP, the Bone diseases center of Lausanne has been mandated to perform a 2-year information and screening campaign (3 days per months) for women age 60 and older through the state of Vaud using a mobile unit for bone assessment. This project is still ongoing. Women are informed by media for dates and screening locations. Appointments are taken by phone. Women known for osteoporosis or already treated are excluded. During the evaluation every women is assessed by a questionnaire for risk factors, by a DXA measurement (Discovery C, Hololgic), and by Vertebral Fracture Assessment (VFA) for Genant's grades 2 and 3 prevalent vertebral fractures (VF). Women are considered at high risk of fracture if they have a hip fracture, a VF, another fragility fracture with a BMD T-score ≤-2 or a BMD T-score ≤-2.5. Results: After 17 months (50 days of screening), 752 women were assessed, mean age 66±6 yrs, mean BMI 26±5 kg/m2, mean lowest T-score -1.6±1.0 SD. 215 women (29%) were considered at high risk, 92 of them (12%) having established OP and 50 (7%) having one or more fragility VF. VF were unknown for 83% of the women and discovered by VFA. The number needed to screen (NNS) were 3.5 for high risk women, 8.2 for established OP and 15 for VF. Conclusions: After near ¾ of the project, prevalence of women at high risk of fracture was high, with a NNS below 4. Knowing the global cost of OP and that current treatment have a high efficacy for fracture risk reduction, such a screening program could have a positive economic impact. VFA allowed discovering many women with unknown VF, who were at very high risk of further fractures. A systematic screening for VF should be added to BMD measurements after the age of 60.

Monitoring Children with Risk Factors. 2008

The Iowa EHDI High-Risk Monitoring Protocol is based on the Joint Committee on Infant Hearing 2007 position statement. Emphasis is placed on follow-up as deemed appropriate by the primary health care provider and audiologist. The Iowa protocol describes the follow-up process for children with risk factors.

SOIL PHOSPHORUS THRESHOLDS IN EVALUATING RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSFER TO SURFACE WATERS IN SANTA CATARINA, BRAZIL

The State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, has agricultural and livestock activities, such as pig farming, that are responsible for adding large amounts of phosphorus (P) to soils. However, a method is required to evaluate the environmental risk of these high soil P levels. One possible method for evaluating the environmental risk of P fertilization, whether organic or mineral, is to establish threshold levels of soil available P, measured by Mehlich-1 extractions, below which there is not a high risk of P transfer from the soil to surface waters. However, the Mehlich-1 extractant is sensitive to soil clay content, and that factor should be considered when establishing such P-thresholds. The objective of this study was to determine P-thresholds using the Mehlich-1 extractant for soils with different clay contents in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Soil from the B-horizon of an Oxisol with 800 g kg-1 clay was mixed with different amounts of sand to prepare artificial soils with 200, 400, 600, and 800 g kg-1 clay. The artificial soils were incubated for 30 days with moisture content at 80 % of field capacity to stabilize their physicochemical properties, followed by additional incubation for 30 days after liming to raise the pH(H2O) to 6.0. Soil P sorption curves were produced, and the maximum sorption (Pmax) was determined using the Langmuir model for each soil texture evaluated. Based on the Pmax values, seven rates of P were added to four replicates of each soil, and incubated for 20 days more. Following incubation, available P contents (P-Mehlich-1) and P dissolved in the soil solution (P-water) were determined. A change-point value (the P-Mehlich-1 value above which P-water starts increasing sharply) was calculated through the use of segmented equations. The maximum level of P that a soil might safely adsorb (P-threshold) was defined as 80 % of the change-point value to maintain a margin for environmental safety. The P-threshold value, in mg dm-3, was dependent on the soil clay content according to the model P-threshold = 40 + Clay, where the soil clay content is expressed as a percentage. The model was tested in 82 diverse soil samples from the State of Santa Catarina and was able to distinguish samples with high and low environmental risk.

Risk of falls and major bleeds in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy.

BACKGROUND: The risk of falls is the most commonly cited reason for not providing oral anticoagulation, although the risk of bleeding associated with falls on oral anticoagulants is still debated. We aimed to evaluate whether patients on oral anticoagulation with high falls risk have an increased risk of major bleeding. METHODS: We prospectively studied consecutive adult medical patients who were discharged on oral anticoagulants. The outcome was the time to a first major bleed within a 12-month follow-up period adjusted for age, sex, alcohol abuse, number of drugs, concomitant treatment with antiplatelet agents, and history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. RESULTS: Among the 515 enrolled patients, 35 patients had a first major bleed during follow-up (incidence rate: 7.5 per 100 patient-years). Overall, 308 patients (59.8%) were at high risk of falls, and these patients had a nonsignificantly higher crude incidence rate of major bleeding than patients at low risk of falls (8.0 vs 6.8 per 100 patient-years, P=.64). In multivariate analysis, a high falls risk was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of a major bleed (hazard ratio 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-2.21). Overall, only 3 major bleeds occurred directly after a fall (incidence rate: 0.6 per 100 patient-years). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort, patients on oral anticoagulants at high risk of falls did not have a significantly increased risk of major bleeds. These findings suggest that being at risk of falls is not a valid reason to avoid oral anticoagulants in medical patients.

Systematic review o f the Perforation Risk in S tenosing Eosinophilic Esophagitis: D ilation is much s afer than initially reported

Background a nd A ims: D ilation of stenosing EosinophilicEsophagitis (EoE) is considered a high-risk procedure asperforation rates o f up to 9% of patients h ave been reported.Goal: To systematically e valuate the dilation-associatedperforation risk in stenosing EoE.Methods: A systematic review of the literature was performedusing pubmed and Embase. Keywords used were "eosinophilicesophagitis", "dilation", "perforation", and "complications".Results: F rom 2002 to 2007 7 case s eries including 85patients r eported perforations i n 5 patients ( perforation r ate6%). The highest perforation rate was reported in a series of 36patients d ocumenting 3 perforations ( 9%). In 2 010 and 2011three large studies r eporting o n a total o f 404 patientsdocumented a perforation in 3 patients (0.74%). The perforationrate reported in small case series before 2010 was significantlyhigher compared to the r ates since 2 010 ( P <0.001). Theoverall p erforation frequency is 8 /489 patients (1.6%). Amedian of 3 endoscopic sessions with dilations were performedper patient, thereby leading to a perforation rate of 0.53% perendoscopy. Follow-up information on EoE p atients w ithperforation was available in 6 s tudies, all patients c ould bemanaged conservatively, dilation-associated mortality waszero.Conclusions: D ilation of stenosing EoE h as a m uch lowerperforation risk as r eported in e arlier c ase series. Theperforation rate per endoscopy (0.53%) is much lower than theone reported for d ilation of achalasia ( 2-4%). T aking intoaccount t he latest data, dilation of stenosing EoE c an beregarded as a safe procedure.

Gestational diabetes mellitus and the risk of metabolic syndrome: a population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland.

AIMS: To investigate the relationships between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and the metabolic syndrome (MS), as it was suggested that insulin resistance was the hallmark of both conditions. To analyse post-partum screening in order to identify risk factors for the subsequent development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all singleton pregnancies diagnosed with GDM at the Lausanne University Hospital for 3 consecutive years. Pre-pregnancy obesity, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were recorded as constituents of the MS. RESULTS: For 5788 deliveries, 159 women (2.7%) with GDM were identified. Constituents of the MS were present before GDM pregnancy in 26% (n = 37/144): 84% (n = 31/37) were obese, 38% (n = 14/37) had hypertension and 22% (n = 8/37) had dyslipidaemia. Gestational hypertension was associated with obesity (OR = 3.2, P = 0.02) and dyslipidaemia (OR = 5.4, P=0.002). Seventy-four women (47%) returned for post-partum OGTT, which was abnormal in 20 women (27%): 11% (n = 8) had type 2 diabetes and 16% (n = 12) had impaired glucose tolerance. Independent predictors of abnormal glucose tolerance in the post-partum were: having > 2 abnormal values on the diagnostic OGTT during pregnancy and presenting MS constituents (OR = 5.2, CI 1.8-23.2 and OR = 5.3, CI 1.3-22.2). CONCLUSIONS: In one fourth of GDM pregnancies, metabolic abnormalities precede the appearance of glucose intolerance. These women have a high risk of developing the MS and type 2 diabetes in later years. Where GDM screening is not universal, practitioners should be aware of those metabolic risks in every pregnant woman presenting with obesity, hypertension or dyslipidaemia, in order to achieve better diagnosis and especially better post-partum follow-up and treatment.

Alcohol drinking, the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in a population with high mean alcohol consumption.

AIMS: To investigate the relationship of alcohol consumption with the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in a population-based study with high mean alcohol consumption. Few data exist on these conditions in high-risk drinkers. METHODS: In 6172 adults aged 35-75 years, alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34 and ≥ 35 drinks/week or as non-drinkers (0), low-risk (1-13), medium-to-high-risk (14-34) and very-high-risk (≥ 35) drinkers. Alcohol consumption was objectively confirmed by biochemical tests. In multivariate analysis, we assessed the relationship of alcohol consumption with adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and insulin resistance, determined with the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). RESULTS: Seventy-three per cent of participants consumed alcohol, 16% were medium-to-high-risk drinkers and 2% very-high-risk drinkers. In multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and mean HOMA-IR decreased with low-risk drinking and increased with high-risk drinking. Adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 24% in non-drinkers, 19% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 20% in medium-to-high-risk and 29% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.005 vs. low-risk). Adjusted prevalence of diabetes was 6.0% in non-drinkers, 3.6% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 3.8% in medium-to-high-risk and 6.7% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.046 vs. low-risk). Adjusted HOMA-IR was 2.47 in non-drinkers, 2.14 in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 2.27 in medium-to-high-risk and 2.53 in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.04 vs. low-risk). These relationships did not differ according to beverage types. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol has a U-shaped relationship with the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and HOMA-IR, without differences between beverage types.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statins in primary prevention comparing different strategies

Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.