Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations.

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO2 changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought-tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO2 concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought-tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low-latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO2 concentration on C3 photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO2 concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO2 concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO2 effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial-interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.

The role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle: tracking the below-ground microbial processing of plant-derived carbon for manipulating carbon dynamics in agricultural systems.

It is well known that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other greenhouse gases) have increased markedly as a result of human activity since the industrial revolution. It is perhaps less appreciated that natural and managed soils are an important source and sink for atmospheric CO2 and that, primarily as a result of the activities of soil microorganisms, there is a soil-derived respiratory flux of CO2 to the atmosphere that overshadows by tenfold the annual CO2 flux from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore small changes in the soil carbon cycle could have large impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we discuss the role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle and review the main methods that have been used to identify the microorganisms responsible for the processing of plant photosynthetic carbon inputs to soil. We discuss whether application of these techniques can provide the information required to underpin the management of agro-ecosystems for carbon sequestration and increased agricultural sustainability. We conclude that, although crucial in enabling the identification of plant-derived carbon-utilising microbes, current technologies lack the high-throughput ability to quantitatively apportion carbon use by phylogentic groups and its use efficiency and destination within the microbial metabolome. It is this information that is required to inform rational manipulation of the plant–soil system to favour organisms or physiologies most important for promoting soil carbon storage in agricultural soil.

Ionospheric signatures of pulsed reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause

THE plasma precipitating into the Earth's dayside auroral atmosphere has characteristics which show that it originates from the shocked solar-wind plasma of the magnetosheath1'2. The particles of the magnetosheath plasma precipitate down a funnel-shaped region (cusp) of open field lines resulting from reconnection of the geomagnetic field with the interplanetary magnetic field3. Although the cusp has long been considered a well defined spatial structure maintained by continuous reconnection, it has recently been suggested4–6 that reconnection instead may take place in a series of discontinuous events; this is the ‘pulsating cusp model’. Here we present coordinated radar and satellite observations of a series of discrete, poleward-moving plasma structures that are consistent with the pulsating-cusp model.

The interconnection of the magnetic fields of the Earth and the sun

Magnetic reconnection facilitates the transfer of mass, energy, and momentum from the solar wind, through the Earth's magnetosphere and into the upper atmosphere. Recently, combined observations using both ground-based and satellite instruments have revealed much about how reconnection takes place. This new understanding has great signficance for systems which exploit, or operate within, the Earth's plasma environment, as well as for a wide variety of scientific studies.

'Where water wells up from the earth’: excavations at the findspot of the Late Bronze Age hoard from Broadward, Shropshire

The paper begins by considering the importance of springs as a focus for votive deposits in Bronze Age Britain. This is not a new idea, but nowhere has this association been examined through the excavation of one of these features. The point is illustrated by excavation at the findspot of a famous group of Late Bronze Age weapons, the Broadward hoard, discovered in 1867. Little was known about the site, where it was found or the character of the original deposit, but a study of contemporary accounts of the hoard, combined with geophysical and topographical surveys, led to small-scale excavation in 2010, which showed that the deposit had most probably been buried in a pit on the edge of a spring. Other finds associated with the spring included an Early Bronze Age macehead, a Roman pot and various Saxon and medieval animal bones. The latest deposit, with a post-medieval carbon date, included a wooden knife or dagger. An adjacent palaeochannel provided an important environmental sequence for this part of the English–Welsh borderland and suggests that the Late Bronze Age hoard had been deposited not far from a settlement. A nearby earthwork enclosure was associated with a clay weight, which may be of similar date. Despite the limited scale of the fieldwork, it illustrates the potential for treating springs associated with artefact finds on the same terms as other archaeological deposits.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

Global, local, or regional? The locus of MNE strategies

This paper provides an overview of the main insights arising from the ‘regional strategy’ literature. It also develops the contours of a new, rich research agenda for future international strategy scholarship, whereby the region should be introduced as an explicit, third geographic level of analysis, in addition to the country-level and the global level. Regional strategy analysis requires a fundamental rethink of mainstream theories in the international strategy sphere. This rethink involves, inter alia, internalization theory, with its resource-based view and transaction cost economics components, as well as the integration (I) – national responsiveness (NR) framework.

The corotation gap in the Galactic H i distribution

We used the H i data from the LAB Survey to map the ring-shaped gap in H i density that lies slightly outside the solar circle. Adopting R(0) = 7.5 kpc, we find an average gap radius of 8.3 kpc and an average gap width of 0.8 kpc. The characteristics of the H i gap correspond closely to the expected ones, as predicted by theory and by numerical simulations of the gas flow near the corotation resonance.