Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Medicines information sources and services for consumers : A special focus on the Internet and people with depression

The range of consumer health and medicines information sources has diversified along with the increased use of the Internet. This has led to a drive to develop medicines information services and to better incorporate the Internet and e-mail into routine practice in health care and in community pharmacies. To support the development of such services more information is needed about the use of online information by consumers, particularly of those who may be the most likely to use and to benefit from the new sources and modes of medicines communication. This study explored the role and utilization of the Internet-based medicines information and information services in the context of a wider network of information sources accessible to the public in Finland. The overall aim was to gather information to develop better and more accessible sources of information for consumers and services to better meet the needs of consumers. Special focus was on the needs and information behavior among people with depression and using antidepressant medicines. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative methods. Consumer medicines information needs and sources were identified by analyzing the utilization of the University Pharmacy operated national drug information call center (Study I) and surveying Finnish adults (n=2348) use of the different medicines information sources (Study II). The utilization of the Internet as a source of antidepressant information among people with depression was explored by focus group discussions among people with depression and with current or past use of the antidepressant(s) (n=29, Studies III & IV). Pharmacy response to the needs of consumers in term of providing e-mail counseling was assessed by conducting a virtual pseudo customer study among the Finnish community pharmacies (n=161, Study V). Physicians and pharmacists were the primary sources of medicines information. People with mental disorders were more frequent users of telephone- and Internet-based medicines information sources and patient information leaflets than people without mental disorders. These sources were used to complement rather than replace information provided face-to-face by health professionals. People with depression used the Internet to seek facts about antidepressants, to share experiences with peers, and for the curiosity. They described that the access to online drug information was empowering. Some people reported lacking the skills necessary to assess the quality of online information. E-mail medication counseling services provided by community pharmacies were rare and varied in quality. Study results suggest that rather than discouraging the use of the Internet, health professionals should direct patients to use accurate and reliable sources of online medicines information. Health care providers, including community pharmacies should also seek to develop new ways of communicating information about medicines with consumers. This study determined that people with depression and using antidepressants need services enabling interactive communication not only with health care professionals, but also with peers. Further research should be focused on developing medicines information service facilitating communication among different patient and consumer groups.

Speech Rhythm in an Interlanguage Perspective : Finnish Adolescents Speaking English

Speech rhythm is an essential part of speech processing. It is the outcome of the workings of a combination of linguistic and non-linguistic parameters, many of which also have other functions in speech. This study focusses on the acoustic and auditive realization of two linguistic parameters of rhythm: (1) sentence stress, and (2) speech rate and pausing. The aim was to find out how well Finnish comprehensive school pupils realize these two parameters in English and how native speakers of English react to Finnish pupils English rhythm. The material was elicited by means of a story-telling task and questionnaires. Three female and three male pupils representing different levels of oral skills in English were selected as the experimental group. The control group consisted of two female and two male native speakers of English. The stories were analysed acoustically and auditorily with respect to interstress intervals, weak forms, fundamental frequency, pausing, and speech as well as articulation rate. In addition, 52 native speakers of English were asked to rate the intelligibility of the Finnish pupils English with respect to speech rhythm and give their attitudes on what the pupils sounded like. Results showed that Finnish pupils can produce isochronous interstress intervals in English, but that too large a proportion of these intervals contain pauses. A closer analysis of the pauses revealed that Finnish pupils pause too frequently and in inappropriate places when they speak English. Frequent pausing was also found to cause slow speech rates. The findings of the fundamental frequency (F0) measurements indicate that Finnish pupils tend to make a slightly narrower F0 difference between stressed and unstressed syllables than the native speakers of English. Furthermore, Finnish pupils appear to know how to reduce the duration and quality of unstressed sounds, but they fail to do it frequently enough. Native listeners gave lower intelligibility and attitude scores to pupils with more anomalous speech rhythm. Finnish pupils rhythm anomalies seemed to derive from various learning- or learner-related factors rather than from the differences between English and Finnish. This study demonstrates that pausing may be a more important component of English speech rhythm than sentence stress as far as Finnish adolescents are concerned and that interlanguage development is affected by various factors and characterised by jumps or periods of stasis. Other theoretical, methodological and pedagogical implications of the results are also discussed.

Englanniksiko maailmanmaineeseen? : Suomalaisen proosakaunokirjallisuuden kääntäminen englanniksi Isossa-Britanniassa vuosina 1945 2003

This doctoral thesis focuses on the translation of Finnish prose literature into English in the United Kingdom between 1945 and 2003. The subject is approached using translation archaeology, interviews, archival material, detailed text analysis and reception material. The main theoretical framework is Descriptive Translation Studies, and certain sociological theories (Bourdieu s field theory, actor-network theory) are also used. After charting the published translations, two periods of time are selected for closer analysis: an earlier period from 1955 to 1959, involving eight translations, and a later one from 1990 to 2003, with a total of six translations. While these translation numbers may appear low, they are actually rather high in proportion to the total number of 28 one-author literary prose translations published in the UK over the approximately 60 years being studied. The two periods of time, the 1950s and 1990s, are compared in terms of the sociological context of translation activity, the reception of translations and their textual features. The comparisons show that the main changes in translation practice between these two periods are increased completeness (translations in the 1950s group often being shortened by hundreds of pages) and lesser use of indirect translation via an intermediary language (about half of the 1950s translations having been translated via Swedish). Otherwise, translation practices have not changed much: except for large omissions, which are far more frequent in the 1950s, variation within each group is larger than between groups. As to the sociological context, the main changes are an increase in long-term institution-level contacts and an increase in the promotion of foreign translation rights by Finnish publishing houses. This is in contrast to the 1950s when translation rights were mainly sold through personal contacts by individual authors and translators. The reception of translations is difficult to study because of scarce material. However, the 1950s translations were aggressively marketed and therefore obtained far more reviews and reprints than the 1990s translations. Several of the 1950s books, mostly historical novels by Mika Waltari, were mainstream bestsellers at the time, while current translations are frequently made for niche markets. The thesis introduces ample new material on the translation of Finnish prose literature into English in the UK. The results are also relevant to translation from a minority literature into a majority one. As to translation theory, they lead us to question the social nature of translation norms and the assumption of a static target culture. The translations analysed here are located in a very fragmented interculture and gain a stronger position in the Finnish culture than in the British one.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

Across the Oceans : Development of Overseas Business Information Transmission, 1815-1875

Earlier studies have shown that the speed of information transmission developed radically during the 19th century. The fast development was mainly due to the change from sailing ships and horse-driven coaches to steamers and railways, as well as the telegraph. Speed of information transmission has normally been measured by calculating the duration between writing and receiving a letter, or between an important event and the time when the news was published elsewhere. As overseas mail was generally carried by ships, the history of communications and maritime history are closely related. This study also brings a postal historical aspect to the academic discussion. Additionally, there is another new aspect included. In business enterprises, information flows generally consisted of multiple transactions. Although fast one-way information was often crucial, e.g. news of a changing market situation, at least equally important was that there was a possibility to react rapidly. To examine the development of business information transmission, the duration of mail transport has been measured by a systematic and commensurable method, using consecutive information circles per year as the principal tool for measurement. The study covers a period of six decades, several of the world's most important trade routes and different mail-carrying systems operated by merchant ships, sailing packets and several nations' steamship services. The main sources have been the sailing data of mail-carrying ships and correspondence of several merchant houses in England. As the world's main trade routes had their specific historical backgrounds with different businesses, interests and needs, the systems for information transmission did not develop similarly or simultaneously. It was a process lasting several decades, initiated by the idea of organizing sailings in a regular line system. The evolution proceeded generally as follows: originally there was a more or less irregular system, then a regular system and finally a more frequent regular system of mail services. The trend was from sail to steam, but both these means of communication improved following the same scheme. Faster sailings alone did not radically improve the number of consecutive information circles per year, if the communication was not frequent enough. Neither did improved frequency advance the information circulation if the trip was very long or if the sailings were overlapping instead of complementing each other. The speed of information transmission could be improved by speeding up the voyage itself (technological improvements, minimizing the waiting time at ports of call, etc.) but especially by organizing sailings so that the recipients had the possibility to reply to arriving mails without unnecessary delay. It took two to three decades before the mail-carrying shipping companies were able to organize their sailings in an optimal way. Strategic shortcuts over isthmuses (e.g. Panama, Suez) together with the cooperation between steamships and railways enabled the most effective improvements in global communications before the introduction of the telegraph.

Phantom limb pain: A nursing perspective

Phantom limb pain (PLP) is a neuropathic pain condition occurring after amputation of a limb. PLP affects amputees’ quality of life and results in loss of productivity and psychological distress. The origin of pain from a non-existing limb creates a challenging situation for both patients and nurses. It is imperative to provide patients and nurses with the knowledge that PLP is a real phenomenon that requires care and treatment. This knowledge will lead to reduced problems for patients by allowing them to talk about PLP and ask for help when needed. Understanding of this phenomenon will enable nurses to appreciate the unique features of this form of neuropathic pain and apply appropriate techniques to promote effective pain management. Performing accurate and frequent assessments to understand the unique characteristics of PLP, displaying a non-judgemental attitude towards patients and teaching throughout the peri-operative process are significant nursing interventions.

Kansanomainen moraali : Tutkimus savolaisista ja pohjalaisista uskomustarinoista

In my research I discuss belief legends as representations of folk morals. Doing wrong is not one s private affair because it can have consequences for the life of a whole community, and therefore, it is in a community s interest to control the conduct of its members. Belief legends have served as a means of instruction for proper behaviour. In this way a community has contributed to the socialization of its members so as to make them comply with common norms and morals. My study is focused on belief legends relating to some type of offence (a crime, an infringement or another kind of misdeed) and its consequences. I try to find out whether there are regional differences and similarities. The material consists of 3120 warning legends that have been recorded in the years 1881‒1981, mainly in Southern Savo and Southern Ostrobothnia, partly in Northern Savo and Northern Ostrobothnia. I have collected the material at the Folklore Archives of the Finnish Literature Society. As a research method I apply discourse analysis to outline the schematic model of the legends, the superstructure, and the substance of the legends, the semantic macrostructure. Also I apply quantitative methods such as cross tabulations in order to establish regional differences and similarities in the concentrated and far abstracted semantic macrostructure of the legends. I look for explanations for the perceptions made in, above all, the cultural context but also with the view of the development of judicial history. Warning legends relating to what is wrong or right are clearly an expression of peasant folklore. The most common types of offences are violations of law and transgressions of Christian traditions and of social conduct. Transgression of Christian traditions is the most frequently committed offence in all geographical areas surveyed. Warning legends have an explicit focus on offence committed by a single person. The most common punishing figure in Southern Savo is the Devil, in Southern Ostrobothnia the Dead, in Northern Savo God, and in Northern Ostrobothnia the Dead or God. The most rigid folk morals are manifested in legends from Northern Savo, where narratives of mortal sin are more frequent than in other areas. The influence of the revivalist movements may be alleged in explanation of this phenomenon. According to these legends people living in Southern Savo are the most tolerant of those included in the study, presumably because of a more liberal revivalist movement in this area, called the Friendship movement. In folk morals women are treated more severely than men. Characteristic of the legends from Ostrobothnia is the emphasis on community, while the legends from Savo lay stress on individuality. The legends from Ostrobothnia manifest a more explicit distinction between the offence committed by a woman and one committed by a man than do legends from Savo. An explanation may be found in the prevailing industries, adherent in the division of labour between the sexes, in this region. The legends are man-centric. Women s occupations are connected with home and family, whereas men s fields of activities are wider. Women moralise each other harsher than do men. Folk morals advise people to be moderate in every sense. Through belief legends people are taught to respect human beings and the rest of creation, to obey the Christian religion and God, and to be moderate in search of wealth.

Alternative fungicides for controlling husk spot caused by Pseudocercospora macadamiae in macadamia

Husk spot, caused by Pseudocercospora macadamiae is a major fungal disease of macadamia in Australia. Chemicals to control the disease are limited and frequent failure to control the disease is a major concern to growers. The overall goal of this research was to improve the chemical control strategy of P. macadamiae through the provision of fungicides with different modes of action to carbendazim, which is the current industry standard. Husk spot incidence, premature fruit abscission, kernel quality and yield were evaluated following application of different fungicide products in replicated field experiments at three different sites. Results showed significant differences in disease incidence and premature fruit abscission between fungicide treatments, field sites and years. Generally, disease incidence and premature fruit abscission on trees treated with fungicide were significantly (P < 0.05) lower than the untreated control. Pyraclostrobin conferred significantly better protection than trifloxystrobin, reducing disease severity by 70% compared with a 50% reduction by trifloxystrobin. The pyraclostrobin treatment had a similar efficacy to the current industry standard (70% reduction cf. 73% reduction by tank-mixed carbendazim and copper). Higher amounts of immature kernels occurred in the untreated control, followed by difenoconazole and trifloxystrobin. Diseased fruit accounted for 78% of premature fruit abscission, which indicates that husk spot enhances fruit abscission in macadamia. Our results suggest that pyraclostrobin provided similar efficacy to the industry standard and could, therefore, play a key role in the management of husk spot.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium aphanidermatum populations infecting cucumber in Oman

Seventy three isolates of Pythium aphanidermatum obtained from cucumber from four different regions of Oman and 16 isolates of muskmelon from the Batinah region in Oman were characterized for aggressiveness, sensitivity to metalaxyl and genetic diversity using AFLP fingerprinting. Twenty isolates of P. aphanidermatum from diverse hosts from different countries were also included in the study. Most isolates from Oman were found to be aggressive on cucumber seedlings and all were highly sensitive to metalaxyl (EC50 < 0•80 µg mL−1). Isolates from cucumber and muskmelon were as aggressive as each other on both hosts (P > 0.05), which implies a lack of host specialization in P. aphanidermatum on these two hosts in Oman. AFLP analysis of all isolates using four primer-pair combinations resolved 152 bands, of which 61 (~40%) were polymorphic. Isolates of P. aphanidermatum from Oman and other countries exhibited high genetic similarity (mean = 94.1%) and produced 59 different AFLP profiles. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that most AFLP variation among populations of P. aphanidermatum in Oman was associated with geographical regions (FST = 0.118; P < 0.0001), not hosts (FST = -0.004; P = 0.4323). These data were supported by the high rate of recovery (24%) of identical phenotypes between cucumber and muskmelon fields in the same region as compared to the low recovery (10%) across regions in Oman, which suggests more frequent movement of Pythium inoculum among muskmelon and cucumber fields in the same region compared to movement across geographically separated regions. However, recovering clones among regions and different countries may imply circulation of Pythium inoculum via common sources in Oman and also intercontinental spread of isolates.

Effects of particle size distribution in the response of model granular materials in multi-ring shear

Rail track undergoes complex loading patterns under moving traffic conditions compared to roads due to its continued and discontinued multi-layered structure, including rail, sleepers, ballast layer, sub-ballast layer, and subgrade. Particle size distributions (PSDs) of ballast, subballast, and subgrade layers can be critical in cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under moving traffic on frequent track degradation of rail tracks, especially at bridge transition zones. Conventional test approaches: static shear and cyclic single-point load tests are however unable to replicate actual loading patterns of moving train. Multi-ring shear apparatus; a new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, which can reproduce moving traffic conditions, was used in this study to investigate influence of particle size distribution of rail track layers on cyclic plastic deformation. Three particle size distributions, using glass beads were examined under different loading patterns: cyclic sin-gle-point load, and cyclic moving wheel load to evaluate cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under different loading methods. The results of these tests suggest that particle size distributions of rail track structural layers have significant impacts on cyclic plastic deformation under moving train load. Further, the limitations in con-ventional test methods used in laboratories to estimate the plastic deformation of rail track materials lead to underestimate the plastic deformation of rail tracks.

Cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load

Cyclic plastic deformation of subgrade and other engineered layers is generally not taken into account in the design of railway bridge transition zones, although the plastic deformation is the governing factor of frequent track deterioration. Actual stress behavior of fine grained subgrade/embankment layers under train traffic is, however, difficult to replicate using the conventional laboratory test apparatus and techniques. A new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, known as multi-ring shear apparatus, was therefore developed to evaluate the actual stress state and the corresponding cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade materials under moving wheel load conditions. Multi-ring shear test results has been validated using a theoretical model test results; the capability of the multi-ring shear apparatus for replicating the cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load conditions is thus established. This paper describes the effects of principal stress rotation (PSR) of the subgrade materials to the cyclic plastic deformation in a railroad and impacts of testing methods in evaluating the influence of principal stress rotation to the track deterioration of rail track.

Level of contribution of intrinsic risk factors to the management of patients with plantar heel pain

Introduction: Injuries in the lower extremity are considered to have multifactorial causes, whilst people with heel pain represent the most frequent cause of visits to health professionals. Managing these patients can be very difficult. The purpose of this research is to identify key variables which can influence foot health in patients with heel pain. Materials and method: A cross-sectional observational study was carried out with a sample of sixty-two participants recruited from the Educational Welfare Unit of the University of Malaga. The therapists, blinded for the study, fill in the data with anthropometric information and the FPI, while participants fill in the foot health status questionnaire, FHSQ. The most significant results reveal that there is a moderate relation between the clinical variables and the FHSQ commands. The most significant contribution is the BMI in the foot health status questionnaire. Conclusion: The variables which can help manage clinical subjects with heel pain are age, BMI, footwear and FPI (left foot).

Utilizing the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), as a biological control agent within an integrated pest management programme for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Creontiades spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) in cotton

Helicoverpa spp. and mirids, Creontiades spp., have been difficult to control biologically in cotton due to their unpredictable temporal abundance combined with a cropping environment often made hostile by frequent usage of broad spectrum insecticides. To address this problem, a range of new generation insecticides registered for use in cotton were tested for compatibility with the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), a potential biological control agent for Helicoverpa spp. and Creontiades spp. Indoxacarb, pyriproxifen, buprofezin, spinosad and fipronil were found to be of low to moderate toxicity on P. plagipennis whilst emamectin benzoate, abamectin, diafenthiuron, imidacloprid and omethaote were moderate to highly toxic. Inundative releases of P. plagipennis integrated with insecticides identified as being of low toxicity were then tested and compared with treatments of P. plagipennis and the compatible insecticides used alone, conventionally sprayed usage practice and an untreated control during two field experiments in cotton. The biological control provided by P. plagipennis nymphs when combined with compatible insecticides provided significant (P<0.001) reductions in Helicoverpa and Creontiades spp. on cotton and provided equivalent yields to conventionally sprayed cotton with half of the synthetic insecticide input. Despite this, the utilization of P. plagipennis in cotton as part of an integrated pest management programme remains unlikely due to high inundative release costs relative to other control technologies such as insecticides and transgenic (Bt) cotton varieties.