808 resultados para Empirical Predictions
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Dreaming is a pure form of phenomenality, created by the brain untouched by external stimulation or behavioral activity, yet including a full range of phenomenal contents. Thus, it has been suggested that the dreaming brain could be used as a model system in a biological research program on consciousness (Revonsuo, 2006). In the present thesis, the philosophical view of biological realism is accepted, and thus, dreaming is considered as a natural biological phenomenon, explainable in naturalistic terms. The major theoretical contribution of the present thesis is that it explores dreaming from a multidisciplinary perspective, integrating information from various fields of science, such as dream research, consciousness research, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive neuroscience. Further, it places dreaming into a multilevel framework, and investigates the constitutive, etiological, and contextual explanations for dreaming. Currently, the only theory offering a full multilevel explanation for dreaming, that is, a theory including constitutive, etiological, and contextual level explanations, is the Threat Simulation Theory (TST) (Revonsuo, 2000a; 2000b). The empirical significance of the present thesis lies in the tests conducted to test this specific theory put forth to explain the form, content, and biological function of dreaming. The first step in the empirical testing of the TST was to define exact criteria for what is a ‘threatening event’ in dreams, and then to develop a detailed and reliable content analysis scale with which it is possible to empirically explore and quantify threatening events in dreams. The second step was to seek answers to the following questions derived from the TST: How frequent threatening events are in dreams? What kind of qualities these events have? How threatening events in dreams relate to the most recently encoded or the most salient memory traces of threatening events experienced in waking life? What are the effects of exposure to severe waking life threat on dreams? The results reveal that threatening events are relatively frequent in dreams, and that the simulated threats are realistic. The most common threats include aggression, are targeted mainly against the dream self, and include simulations of relevant and appropriate defensive actions. Further, real threat experiences activate the threat simulation system in a unique manner, and dream content is modulated by the activation of long term episodic memory traces with highest negative saliency. To sum up, most of the predictions of the TST tested in this thesis received considerable support. The TST presents a strong argument that explains the specific design of dreams as threat simulations. The TST also offers a plausible explanation for why dreaming would have been selected for: because dreaming interacted with the environment in such a way that enhanced fitness of ancestral humans. By referring to a single threat simulation mechanism it furthermore manages to explain a wide variety of dream content data that already exists in the literature, and to predict the overall statistical patterns of threat content in different samples of dreams. The TST and the empirical tests conducted to test the theory are a prime example of what a multidisciplinary approach to mental phenomena can accomplish. Thus far, dreaming seems to have always resided in the periphery of science, never regarded worth to be studied by the mainstream. Nevertheless, when brought to the spotlight, the study of dreaming can greatly benefit from ideas in diverse branches of science. Vice versa, knowledge learned from the study of dreaming can be applied in various disciplines. The main contribution of the present thesis lies in putting dreaming back where it belongs, that is, into the spotlight in the cross-road of various disciplines.
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In this work is presented and tested (for 106 adducts, mainly of the zinc group halides) two empirical equations supported in TG data to estimate the value of the metal-ligand bond dissociation enthalpy for adducts: <D> (M-O) = t i / g if t i < 420 K and <D> (M-O) = (t i / g ) - 7,75 . 10-2 . t i if t i > 420 K. In this empirical equations, t i is the thermodynamic temperature of the beginning of the thermal decomposition of the adduct, as determined by thermogravimetry, andg is a constant factor that is function of the metal halide considered and of the number of ligands, but is not dependant of the ligand itself. To half of the tested adducts the difference between experimental and calculated values was less than 5%. To about 80% of the tested adducts, the difference between the experimental (calorimetric) and the calculated (using the proposed equations) values are less than 15%.
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This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.
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The agricultural sector has always been characterized by a predominance of small firms. International competition and the consequent need for restraining costs are permanent challenges for farms. This paper performs an empirical investigation of cost behavior in agriculture using panel data analysis. Our results show that transactions caused by complexity influence farm costs with opposite effects for specific and indirect costs. While transactions allow economies of scale in specific costs, they significantly increase indirect costs. However, the main driver for farm costs is volume. In addition, important differences exist for small and big farms, since transactional variables significantly influence the former but not the latter. While sophisticated management tools, such ABC, could provide only limited complementary useful information but no essential allocation bases for farms, they seem inappropriate for small farms
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The agricultural sector has always been characterized by a predominance of small firms. International competition and the consequent need for restraining costs are permanent challenges for farms. This paper performs an empirical investigation of cost behavior in agriculture using panel data analysis. Our results show that transactions caused by complexity influence farm costs with opposite effects for specific and indirect costs. While transactions allow economies of scale in specific costs, they significantly increase indirect costs. However, the main driver for farm costs is volume. In addition, important differences exist for small and big farms, since transactional variables significantly influence the former but not the latter. While sophisticated management tools, such ABC, could provide only limited complementary useful information but no essential allocation bases for farms, they seem inappropriate for small farms
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Peer-reviewed
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Peer-reviewed
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Using microdata, we analyse the determinants of firm relocation and conventional outsourcing decisions as a way to reduce employment. The results for a sample of 32 countries show the relevance of factors not considered previously in the literature. Firms that are below average in quality or innovation have a higher propensity to externalise part of their production through outsourcing, while lower relative profitability and longer time to market for new products each imply a higher probability of relocation.
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Recent theoretical developments on concession contracts for long term infrastructure projects under uncertain demand show the benefits of allowing for flexible term contracts rather than fixing a rigid term. This study presents a simulation to compare both alternatives by using real data from the oldest Spanish toll motorway. For this purpose, we analyze how well the flexible term would have performed instead of the fixed length actually established. Our results show a huge reduction of the term of concession that would have dramatically decreased the firm’s benefits and the user’s overpayment due to the internalization of an unexpected traffic increase.
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The empirical literature about factors explaining local government delivery choices has traditionally focused the attention on the public or private production dilemma. However, hybrid organizational forms such as mixed public-private firms are increasingly used in several European countries. This paper makes use of survey data from Spanish municipalities to examine motivations of local governments for engaging in hybrid organizational forms. Data refer to two very relevant local services: water distribution and solid waste collection. The empirical analysis indicates that the use of mixed firms emerge as a type of pragmatically based ‘third way’ between pure public and pure private production. Indeed, local governments make use of mixed firms when cost considerations (scale economies, transaction costs and soon), financial constraints and private interests exert contradictory pressures. On the contrary, political and ideological factors do not play any significant role on the local government decision of engaging or not in joint ventures with private partners.
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The purpose of this study was to define the customer profitability of the case company as well as to specify the factors that explain customer profitability. The study was made with a quantitative research method. The research hypotheses were formulated mainly on the grounds of previous research, and were tested with statistical research methods. The research results showed that customer profitability is not equally distributed among the customers of the case company, and the majority of its customers is profitable. The interpreters for absolute customer profitability were sales volume and the customer’s location region. The interpreters for relative customer profitability were the customer’s location region and the product segment into which a customer can be classified on the basis of the products that were sold to this customer.
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In this article we review some of the basic aspects of rare earth spectroscopy applied to vitreous materials. The characteristics of the intra-atomic free ion and ligand field interactions, as well as the formalisms of the forced electric dipole and dynamic coupling mechanisms of 4f-4f intensities, are outlined. The contribution of the later mechanism to the 4f-4f intensities is critically discussed, a point that has been commonly overlooked in the literature of rare earth doped glasses. The observed correlation between the empirical intensity parameter W2 and the covalence of the ion first coordination shell is discussed accordingly to the theoretical predictions.
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Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.
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The strategic group theory provides an intermediate level of analysis between a single company and the whole industry for identifying issues about the company's competitive position and strategic choices. Strategic groups are companies within an industry with similar strategic characteristics or competing on similar bases. Strategic choices are aligned with the firms’ resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe, and study, whether a certain group membership results in financial performance differences. Altogether 80 European wind energy companies were included in the study, which were clustered into four strategic groups according to their age and growth rate. Each group corresponds to a different strategy. The results show that the wind energy companies can be clustered according to the chosen strategic characteristics. Strategic decisions were investigated with characteristic variables. Performance variables were used in the analysis measuring profitability, liquidity and solvency of the groups. These strategic choices of the companies did not have a significant influence on the firms’ performance. The more mature and slower growing group proved to be the most successful. However, the differences between groups were generally not statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference found was in the solvency ratio between Mature Slow and Young Rapid groups. Measured with these variables, more mature and slower growing companies performed better. Therefore, a certain strategic group membership results in performance differences.
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This paper examines the extent to which innovative Spanish firms pursue improvements in energy efficiency (EE) as an objective of innovation. The increase in energy consumption and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions justifies the greater attention being paid to energy efficiency and especially to industrial EE. The ability of manufacturing companies to innovate and improve their EE has a substantial influence on attaining objectives regarding climate change mitigation. Despite the effort to design more efficient energy policies, the EE determinants in manufacturing firms have been little studied in the empirical literature. From an exhaustive sample of Spanish manufacturing firms and using a logit model, we examine the energy efficiency determinants for those firms that have innovated. To carry out the econometric analysis, we use panel data from the Community Innovation Survey for the period 2008‐2011. Our empirical results underline the role of size among the characteristics of firms that facilitate energy efficiency innovation. Regarding company behaviour, firms that consider the reduction of environmental impacts to be an important objective of innovation and that have introduced organisational innovations are more likely to innovate with the objective of increasing energy efficiency. Keywords: energy efficiency, corporate targets, innovation, Community Innovation Survey. JEL Classification: Q40, Q55, O31