Inflation targeting works well in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil

Includes bibliography

Inflation and stabilization policies

Senala algunos de los problemas destacados en el analisis de las causas y consecuencias de la inflacion y el diseno de politicas de estabilizacion; y examina un caso particular, el Plan Austral aplicado en Argentina desde mediados de 1985.

Effects of resistance training on the performance of activities of daily living in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Aim: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of resistance training in activities of daily living performance in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Methods: An exploratory and longitudinal study, lasting for 16weeks, with the participation of 34 patients divided equally in: the training group (TG), who participated in a resistance training protocol (three sets of 20 repetitions in five exercises); and the social gathering group (SGG), who participated in a social interaction protocol (i.e. group dynamics, writing and reading activities). Results: We observed significant differences between the groups in moving around the house, climbing stairs, standing up from the floor and putting on socks tests. Conclusion: This study showed that resistance training improves agility, lower limb strength, balance and flexibility in AD patients, while SGG protocol is important to improve the agility. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Effect of a multimodal exercise program on sleep disturbances and instrumental activities of daily living performance on Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease patients

Aim: To assess the contribution of a multimodal exercise program on the sleep disturbances (SD) and on the performance of instrumental activities daily living (IADL) in patients with clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease patients (PD). Methods: A total of 42 consecutive patients (23 training group, 19 control group) with PD and 35 demented patients with AD (19 trained group, 16 control group) were recruited. Participants in both training groups carried out three 1-h sessions per week of a multimodal exercise program for 6 months. The Pfeffer Questionnaire for Instrumental Activities and the Mini-Sleep Questionnaire were used to assess the effects of the program on IADL and SD respectively. Results: Two-way ancova showed interactions in IADL and SD. Significant improvements were observed for these variables in both intervention groups, and maintenance or worsening was observed in control groups. The analysis of effect size showed these improvements. Conclusion: The present study results show that a mild to moderate intensity of multimodal physical exercises carried out on a regular basis over 6 months can contribute to reducing IADL deficits and attenuating SD. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

A randomized clinical trial of high volume peritoneal dialysis versus extended daily hemodialysis for acute kidney injury patients

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) requiring dialysis in critically ill patients is associated with an in-hospital mortality rate of 50-80 %. Extended daily hemodialysis (EHD) and high volume peritoneal dialysis (HVPD) have emerged as alternative modalities. Methods: A double-center, randomized, controlled trial was conducted comparing EHD versus HVPD for the treatment for AKI in the intensive care unit (ICU). Four hundred and seven patients were randomized and 143 patients were analyzed. Principal outcome measure was hospital mortality, and secondary end points were recovery of renal function and metabolic and fluid control. Results: There was no difference between the two groups in relation to median ICU stay [11 (5.7-20) vs. 9 (5.7-19)], recovery of kidney function (26.9 vs. 29.6 %, p = 0.11), need for chronic dialysis (9.7 vs. 6.5 %, p = 0.23), and hospital mortality (63.4 vs. 63.9 %, p = 0.94). The groups were different in metabolic and fluid control. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, and bicarbonate levels were stabilized faster in EHD group than in HVPD group. Delivered Kt/V and ultrafiltration were higher in EHD group. Despite randomization, there were significant differences between the groups in some covariates, including age, pre-dialysis BUN, and creatinine levels, biased in favor of the EHD. Using logistic regression to adjust for the imbalances in group assignment, the odds of death associated with HVPD was 1.4 (95 % CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.19). A detailed investigation of the randomization process failed to explain the marked differences in patient assignment. Conclusions: Despite faster metabolic control and higher dialysis dose and ultrafiltration with EHD, this study provides no evidence of a survival benefit of EHD compared with HVPD. The limitations of this study were that the results were not presented according to the intention to treat and it did not control other supportive management strategies as nutrition support and timing of dialysis initiation that might influence outcomes in AKI. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Resolución 13: Inflación = Resolution 13: Inflation = Résolution 13: Inflation

El símbolo E/840/Rev.1 corresponde a la edición bilingüe inglés/francés publicada en 1953

Toxic effects of daily applications of 10% carbamide peroxide on odontoblast-like MDPC-23 cells

Background. Tooth bleaching has been widely studied, mainly due to the possible undesirable effects that can be caused by this esthetic procedure. The cytotoxicity of the bleaching agents and its components to pulp cells has been demonstrated in several researches. The aim of this study was to evaluate the toxic effects of successive applications of 10% carbamide peroxide (CP) gel on odontoblast-like cells. Materials and methods. Enamel-dentin discs obtained from bovine incisors were adapted to artificial pulp chambers (APCs). The groups were formed as follows: G1: Without treatment (control group); G2: 10% carbamide peroxide, CP (five applications/one per day); G3: 10% CP (one unique application); and G4: 35% hydrogen peroxide, HP (three applications of 15 min each). After treatment, cell metabolism (MTT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and plasma membrane damage (flow cytometry) were analyzed. Results. Reductions in cell metabolism and alkaline phosphatase activity along with severe damage of the cytoplasmic membrane were noted in G2. In G3, no damage was observed, compared to the control group. Intermediary values of toxicity were obtained after 35% HP application. Conclusion. It can be concluded that one application of 10% CP did not cause toxic effects in odontoblast-like cells, but the successive application of this product promoted severe cytotoxic effects. The daily application of the bleaching agents, such as used in the at-home bleaching technique, can increase the damages caused by this treatment to the dental pulp cells. © 2013 Informa Healthcare.

Chameleonic inflation

We attempt to incorporate inflation into a string theory realization of the chameleon mechanism. Previously, it was found that the volume modulus, stabilized by the supersymmetric potential used by Kachru, Kallosh, Linde and Trivedi (KKLT) and with the right choice of parameters, can generically work as a chameleon. In this paper, we ask whether inflation can be realized in the same model. We find that we need a large extra dimensions set-up, as well as a semi-phenomenological deformation of the Kähler potential in the quantum region. We also find that an additional KKLT term is required so that there are now two pieces to the potential, one which drives inflation in the early universe, and one which is responsible for chameleon screening at late times. These two pieces of the potential are separated by a large flat desert in field space. The scalar field must dynamically traverse this desert between the end of inflation and today, and we find that this can indeed occur under the right conditions. © 2013 SISSA, Trieste, Italy.

Inflation and growth = Inflación y crecimiento: Resumen de la experiencia en América Latina

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.