Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Pecuniary Externality through Credit Constraints: Two Examples without Uncertainty

This paper is a contribution to the growing literature on constrained inefficiencies in economies with financial frictions. The purpose is to present two simple examples, inspired by the stochastic models in Gersbach-Rochet (2012) and Lorenzoni (2008), of deterministic environments in which such inefficiencies arise through credit constraints. Common to both examples is a pecuniary externality, which operates through an asset price. In the second example, a simple transfer between two groups of agents can bring about a Pareto improvement. In a first best economy, there are no pecuniary externalities because marginal productivities are equalised. But when agents face credit constraints, there is a wedge between their marginal productivities and those of the non-credit-constrained agents. The wedge is the source of the pecuniary externality: economies with these kinds of imperfections in credit markets are not second-best efficient. This is akin to the constrained inefficiency of an economy with incomplete markets, as in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986).

Reduced quality of life associated adverse events in intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with PRECISION TACE with drug eluting beads: Results from the PRECISION V randomized trial : B-241

Purpose: To evaluate the extent of quality of life (QoL) associated adverse events (AEs) following PRECISION TACE with DC Bead compared with conventional transarterial chemoembolisation (cTACE). Methods and Materials: 201 intermediate HCC patients were treated with DC Bead (PRECISION TACE) or conventional TACE (cTACE) with doxorubicin in the PRECISION V clinical study. 93 patients were treated with DC Bead and 108 Patients with cTACE every 2 months and followed up for 6 months. AEs were classified according to the South West Oncology Group criteria. QoL associated AEs were defined as alopecia, constipation, nausea, vomiting, pyrexia, chills, asthenia, fatigue, and headache. Results: The biggest difference in QoL associated AEs was for alopecia: 2 patients (2.2%) for DC-Bead versus 21 patients (19.4%) for cTACE. For other clinical symptoms, constipation (n=10; 10.8% vs. n=13; 12%), vomiting (n=10; 10.8% vs. n=14; 13.0%), pyrexia (n=16; 17.2% vs. n=26; 24.1%), chills (n=1; 1.1% vs. n=5; 4.6%), and headache (n=2; 2.2% vs. n=8; 7.4%) showed lower incidence in the DC Bead group versus cTACE. Nausea, n= 15; 13.9% (n=15; 16.1%) and fatigue, n=6; 5.6% (n=13; 14.0%) were lower for cTACE. Total dose of doxorubicin was on average 35% higher in the DC Bead group. Conclusion: Although patients in the DC Bead group received a higher doxorubicin dose, less QoL associated AEs were reported for this group. Alopecia, the most obvious outward sign of toxicity, was only reported in a tenth of DC Bead patients. Thus, PRECISION TACE with DC Bead improves quality of life associated adverse events.

Correlation of tumor-associated antigens MAGE, NY-ESO-1 and P53 expression with clinical and pathological relationships of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

Despite advances in the diagnosisand treatment of head and neck cancer,survival rates have not improvedover recent years. New therapeuticstrategies, including immunotherapy,are the subject of extensive research.In several types of tumors, the presenceof tumor infiltrating lymphocytes(TILs), notably CD8+ T cellsand dendritic cells, has been correlatedwith improved prognosis. Moreover,some T cells among TILs havebeen shown to kill tumor cells in vitroupon recognition of tumor-associatedantigens. Tumor associated antigensare expressed in a significant proportionof squamous cell carcinoma ofthe head and neck and apparently mayplay a role in the regulation of cancercell growth notably by inhibition ofp53 protein function in some cancers.The MAGE family CT antigens couldtherefore potentially be used as definedtargets for immunotherapy andtheir study bring new insight in tumorgrowth regulation mechanisms. Between1995 - 2005 54 patients weretreated surgically in our institution forsquamous cell carcinoma of the oralcavity. Patient and clinical data wasobtained from patient files and collectedinto a computerized database.For each patient, paraffin embeddedtumor specimens were retrieved andexpression of MAGE CT antigens,p53, NY-OESO-1 were analyzed byimmunohistochemistry. Results werethen correlated with histopathologicalparameter such as tumor depth,front invasion according to Bryne andboth, local control and disease freesurvival. MAGE-A was expressed in52% of patients. NY-ESO-1 and p53expression was found in 7% and 52%cases respectively. A higher tumordepth was significantly correlatedwith expression of MAGE-Aproteins(p = 0.03). No significant correlationcould be made between the expressionof both p53 andNY-OESO-1 andhistopathological parameters. Expressionof tumor-associated antigendid not seem to impact significantlyon patient prognosis. As does thedemonstration of p53 function inhibitionby CT antigens of MAGE family,our results suggest, that tumor associatedantigens may be implicated in tumorprogression mechanisms. Thishypothesis need further investigationto clarify the relationship betweenhost immune response and local tumorbiology.

Large-scale imatinib dose-concentration-effect study in CML patients under routine care conditions.

This observational study analyzed imatinib pharmacokinetics and response in 2478 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Data were obtained through centralized therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) at median treatment duration of ≥2 years. First, individual initial trough concentrations under 400mg/day imatinib starting dose were estimated. Second, their correlation (C^min(400mg)) with reported treatment response was verified. Low imatinib levels were predicted in young male patients and those receiving P-gp/CYP3A4 inducers. These patients had also lower response rates (7% lower 18-months MMR in male, 17% lower 1-year CCyR in young patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates). Time-point independent multivariate regression confirmed a correlation of individual C^min(400mg) with response and adverse events. Possibly due to confounding factors (e.g. dose modifications, patient selection bias), the relationship seemed however flatter than previously reported from prospective controlled studies. Nonetheless, these observational results strongly suggest that a subgroup of patients could benefit from early dosage optimization assisted by TDM, because of lower imatinib concentrations and lower response rates.

Mefloquine resistant malaria in cameroon and correlation with resistance quinine

Based on the results of in vitro sensitivity of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine, quinine and mefloquine, and evaluation of drug consumption conducted in 1987-1988 in four areas in the noth and south-west of Cameron, two opposite situations were encountered in this country. In northern Cameron where mefloquine resistance is prevalent a close correlation was found between the responses of P. falciparum to mefloquine and to quinine, but not between mefloquine and chloroquine. In the south, where chloroquine resistance is highly prevalent, no correlation was found neither between mefloquine and chloroquine nor mefloquine and quinine, but the responses to quinine and chloroquine appear partly correlated. These lead to formulate the hypothesis of a "southern" type of P. falciparum submitted to a high chloroquine drug pressure inducing a secondary cross resistance, whilst a "northern"type submitted to a relatively high and abortive quinine drug pressure inducing a primary quinine resistance and a secondary cross resistance with mefloquine.

Heterogeneity of Ia antigen expression on myeloblastic leukaemias: correlation with stage of maturation defined by cytochemical markers.

The expression of Ia-like antigen (Ia) has been studied in 55 cases of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in correlation with the expression of both Sudan Black (SB) and naphthol AS-D chloroacetate esterase (NCAE) stains. Operationally the AML cases were divided into three groups using only NCAE expression on the leukaemic cells: the first group with early maturation stage (MS1) consisted of 30 cases with less than 10% NCAE positive cells (SB: 15-100%): the MS2 group of 14 cases with 10-70% NCAE positive cells (SB: 65-100%) and the MS3 group of 11 cases with 70-100% NCAE positive cells (SB: 89-100%). Ia expression was determined by complement-dependent cytotoxicity, immunofluorescence and immunoperoxidase methods. A similar high percentage (80%) of patients from both group MS1 and MS2 expressed Ia on the surface of 32-100% of the cells. Furthermore, individual comparison of all cases from these two groups showed no correlation between Ia, NCAE and SB expression. Only in the 11 cases from the MS3 group, which included nine cases of promyelocytic leukaemias, was there a correlation between very low expression of Ia antigen with the high NCAE expression. Thus, for AML with a low degree of differentiation the expression of Ia seems to be independent of conventional cytochemical markers of cell maturation.

The impact of past direct-personal traumatic events on 12-month outcome in first episode psychotic mania: trauma and early psychotic mania.

OBJECTIVE: Past traumatic events have been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in people with bipolar disorder. However, the impact of these events in the early stages of the illness remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prior traumatic events were related to poorer outcomes 12 months following a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: Traumatic events were retrospectively evaluated from patient files in a sample of 65 participants who had experienced first episode psychotic mania. Participants were aged between 15 and 28 years and were treated at a specialised early psychosis service. Clinical outcomes were measured by a variety of symptomatic and functioning scales at the 12-month time-point. RESULTS: Direct-personal traumatic experiences prior to the onset of psychotic mania were reported by 48% of the sample. Participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly higher symptoms of mania (p=0.02), depression (p=0.03) and psychopathology (p=0.01) 12 months following their first episode compared to participants without past direct-personal trauma, with medium to large effects observed. After adjusting for baseline scores, differences in global functioning (as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning scale) were non-significant (p=0.05); however, participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly poorer social and occupational functioning (p=0.04) at the 12-month assessment with medium effect. CONCLUSIONS: Past direct-personal trauma may predict poorer symptomatic and functional outcomes after first episode psychotic mania. Limitations include that the findings represent individuals treated at a specialist early intervention centre for youth and the retrospective assessment of traumatic events may have been underestimated.

Expression of human estrogen receptor mutants in Xenopus oocytes: correlation between transcriptional activity and ability to form protein-DNA complexes.

The human estrogen receptor (hER) is a trans-acting regulatory protein composed of a series of discrete functional domains. We have microinjected an hER expression vector (HEO) into Xenopus oocyte nuclei and demonstrate, using Western blot assay, that the hER is synthesized. When nuclear extracts from oocytes were prepared and incubated in the presence of a 2.7 kb DNA fragment comprising the 5' end of the vitellogenin gene B2, formation of estrogen-dependent complexes could be visualized by electron microscopy over the estrogen responsive element (ERE). Of crucial importance is the observation that the complex formation is inhibited by the estrogen antagonist tamoxifen, is restored by the addition of the hormone and does not take place with extracts from control oocytes injected with the expression vector lacking the sequences encoding the receptor. The presence of the biologically active hER is confirmed in co-injection experiments, in which HEO is co-introduced with a CAT reporter gene under the control of a vitellogenin promoter containing or lacking the ERE. CAT assays and primer extensions analyses reveal that both the receptor and the ERE are essential for estrogen induced stimulation of transcription. The same approach was used to analyze selective hER mutants. We find that the DNA binding domain (region C) is essential for protein--DNA complex formation at the ERE but is not sufficient by itself to activate transcription from the reporter gene. In addition to region C, both the hormone binding (region E) and amino terminal (region A/B) domains are needed for an efficient transcription activation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A possible correlation between the host genetic background in the epidemiology of Hepatitis B virus in the Amazon region of Brazil

The Amazon region of Brazil is an area of great interest because of the large distribution of hepatitis B virus in specific Western areas. Seven urban communities and 24 Indian groups were visited in a total of 4,244 persons. Each individual was interviewed in order to obtain demographic and familial information. Whole blood was collected for serology and genetic determinations. Eleven genetic markers and three HBV markers were tested. Among the most relevant results it was possible to show that (i) there was a large variation of previous exposure to HBV in both urban and non-urban groups ranging from 0 to 59.2%; (ii) there was a different pattern of epidemiological distribution of HBV that was present even among a same linguistic Indian group, with mixed patterns of correlation between HBsAg and anti-HBs and (iii) the prevalence of HBV markers (HBsAg and anti-HBs) were significantly higher (P=0.0001) among the Indian population (18.8%) than the urban groups (12.5%). Its possible that the host genetic background could influence and modulate the replication of the virus in order to generate HB carrier state.

Evolution of anaesthesia care and related events between 1996 and 2010 in a developed country

Background: Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland (ADS) is a voluntary data registry introduced in 1996. The goal was to promote quality in anaesthesiology. Methods: Analysis of routinely recorded adverse events. Internal and external benchmark comparisons between anaesthesia departments. Results: In 2010, the database included 2'158'735 anaesthetic procedures. Forty-four anaesthesia departments were participating to the data collection in 2010. Over time, the number of patients in older age groups increased, the largest group being patients aged 50 to 64 years. Over time, the percentage of patients with ASA physical status score 1 decreased while the number of ASA 2 or 3 patients increased. The most frequent co-morbidities were hypertension (21%), smoking (16%), allergy (15%), and obesity (12%). Between 1996 and 2010, 146'459 adverse events were recorded, of which 34% were cardiovascular, 7% respiratory, 39% specific to anaesthesia and 17% nonspecific. The overall proportion of adverse events decreased over time, whatever their severity. Conclusion: The ADS routine data collection contributes to monitoring the trends of anaesthesia care in Switzerland.

Correlation between plasma and urine phenylalanine concentrations.

In this pilot study, we show that plasma phenylalanine concentration can be predicted from urine concentration if the age of the patient is taken into consideration. This observation could open the way to a new monitoring of phenylketonuric patients in which painful frequent blood sampling, mandatory to adapt the low phenylalanine diet, could be mostly replaced by urinalysis. Compliance to treatment would be improved and hence also the ultimate mental development. Since this study was based on a small number of patients, validation of the model in a large multicentric survey is needed before it can be recommended.

Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation

Abstract: We scrutinize the realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. We use quantile regressions to pin down the systematic variation of the extreme tails over their economic determinants. The correlation dependence behaves differently when the correlation is large negative and large positive. The important explanatory variables at the extreme low quantile are the short rate, the yield spread, and the volatility index. At the extreme high quantile the bond market liquidity is also important. The empirical fi…ndings are only partially robust to using less precise measures of the stock-bond correlation. The results are not caused by the recent …financial crisis. Keywords: Extreme returns; Financial crisis; Realized stock-bond correlation; Quantile regressions; VIX. JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G01; G11; G12