Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

The Ghost in the Machine: Inferring Machine-Based Strategies from Observed Behavior

We introduce a procedure to infer the repeated-game strategies that generate actions in experimental choice data. We apply the technique to set of experiments where human subjects play a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. The technique suggests that two types of strategies underly the data.

Monte Carlo Tests with Nuisance Parameters: A General Approach to Finite-Sample Inference and Nonstandard Asymptotics

The technique of Monte Carlo (MC) tests [Dwass (1957), Barnard (1963)] provides an attractive method of building exact tests from statistics whose finite sample distribution is intractable but can be simulated (provided it does not involve nuisance parameters). We extend this method in two ways: first, by allowing for MC tests based on exchangeable possibly discrete test statistics; second, by generalizing the method to statistics whose null distributions involve nuisance parameters (maximized MC tests, MMC). Simplified asymptotically justified versions of the MMC method are also proposed and it is shown that they provide a simple way of improving standard asymptotics and dealing with nonstandard asymptotics (e.g., unit root asymptotics). Parametric bootstrap tests may be interpreted as a simplified version of the MMC method (without the general validity properties of the latter).

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.

Tests multiples simulés et tests de normalité basés sur plusieurs moments dans les modèles de régression

Cet article illustre l’applicabilité des méthodes de rééchantillonnage dans le cadre des tests multiples (simultanés), pour divers problèmes économétriques. Les hypothèses simultanées sont une conséquence habituelle de la théorie économique, de sorte que le contrôle de la probabilité de rejet de combinaisons de tests est un problème que l’on rencontre fréquemment dans divers contextes économétriques et statistiques. À ce sujet, on sait que le fait d’ignorer le caractère conjoint des hypothèses multiples peut faire en sorte que le niveau de la procédure globale dépasse considérablement le niveau désiré. Alors que la plupart des méthodes d’inférence multiple sont conservatrices en présence de statistiques non-indépendantes, les tests que nous proposons visent à contrôler exactement le niveau de signification. Pour ce faire, nous considérons des critères de test combinés proposés initialement pour des statistiques indépendantes. En appliquant la méthode des tests de Monte Carlo, nous montrons comment ces méthodes de combinaison de tests peuvent s’appliquer à de tels cas, sans recours à des approximations asymptotiques. Après avoir passé en revue les résultats antérieurs sur ce sujet, nous montrons comment une telle méthodologie peut être utilisée pour construire des tests de normalité basés sur plusieurs moments pour les erreurs de modèles de régression linéaires. Pour ce problème, nous proposons une généralisation valide à distance finie du test asymptotique proposé par Kiefer et Salmon (1983) ainsi que des tests combinés suivant les méthodes de Tippett et de Pearson-Fisher. Nous observons empiriquement que les procédures de test corrigées par la méthode des tests de Monte Carlo ne souffrent pas du problème de biais (ou sous-rejet) souvent rapporté dans cette littérature – notamment contre les lois platikurtiques – et permettent des gains sensibles de puissance par rapport aux méthodes combinées usuelles.

Assistance de l’enseignement de la conception architecturale par la modélisation de savoir-faire des référents

Dans une époque de changements des moyens de représentation et communication en architecture, cette recherche porte sur l’enseignement de la conception architecturale et plus spécifiquement sur l’apport que l’informatique pourrait avoir dans ce processus. En nous basant sur une méthodologie qualitative, exploratoire et participative, nous y procédons par enchainement de questions, celle de départ étant la suivante: Comment l’enseignement de la conception architecturale pourrait tirer avantage des moyens numériques? Notre objectif est de proposer des méthodes et des outils d’apprentissage aux étudiants en architecture pour enrichir leurs démarches de conception grâce à l’ordinateur. Après une revue de la littérature dans le domaine, et un approfondissement de l’étude sur le rôle des référents architecturaux et sur la conception intégrée, nous avons procédé à une observation exploratoire du travail des étudiants en atelier d’architecture. Ces premières étapes de la recherche ont permis de dégager des discordances entre les positions théoriques et la pratique en l’atelier, pour concrétiser ultérieurement la question de recherche. Dans le but de discerner des méthodes efficaces et innovatrices pour répondre aux discordances identifiées, nous avons engagé une étude de la littérature sur les théories cognitives par rapport aux connaissances, l’apprentissage et la conception. Certaines stratégies ont pu être définies, notamment la nécessité de représentation multimodale des référents architecturaux, l’importance de représenter le processus et non seulement le résultat, ainsi que l’avantage d’inciter les étudiants à travailler dans leur ‘zone proximale’ de développement. Suite à ces recherches, une méthode d’enseignement complémentaire a été définie. Elle propose aux étudiants des explorations de l’objet en conception basées sur la manipulation des savoir-faire architecturaux. Cette méthode a été opérationnalisée d’un point de vue pédagogique ainsi que didactique et mise à l’épreuve auprès des étudiants en atelier. Un prototype de librairie de référents architecturaux interactifs (LibReArchI) a été créé dans ce but. Elle a été conçue en tant qu’environnement de conception et espace de partage de savoir-faire entre étudiants et enseignants. Les principaux résultats de cette recherche démontrent le rôle positif de la méthode proposée pour le transfert des savoir-faire architecturaux lors de l’apprentissage en atelier. Son potentiel d’assister la conception intégrée et de stimuler l’émergence d’idées a été constaté. Au niveau théorique, un modèle d’un cycle du processus de design avec le numérique a été esquissé. En conclusion, des avenues de développements futurs de cette recherche sont proposées.

Bayesian inference and model comparison for random choice structures

We complete the development of a testing ground for axioms of discrete stochastic choice. Our contribution here is to develop new posterior simulation methods for Bayesian inference, suitable for a class of prior distributions introduced by McCausland and Marley (2013). These prior distributions are joint distributions over various choice distributions over choice sets of di fferent sizes. Since choice distributions over di fferent choice sets can be mutually dependent, previous methods relying on conjugate prior distributions do not apply. We demonstrate by analyzing data from a previously reported experiment and report evidence for and against various axioms.

Information Discovery in Distributed Systems-A Novel Concept Based on Modelling of Information Elements

Sharing of information with those in need of it has always been an idealistic goal of networked environments. With the proliferation of computer networks, information is so widely distributed among systems, that it is imperative to have well-organized schemes for retrieval and also discovery. This thesis attempts to investigate the problems associated with such schemes and suggests a software architecture, which is aimed towards achieving a meaningful discovery. Usage of information elements as a modelling base for efficient information discovery in distributed systems is demonstrated with the aid of a novel conceptual entity called infotron.The investigations are focused on distributed systems and their associated problems. The study was directed towards identifying suitable software architecture and incorporating the same in an environment where information growth is phenomenal and a proper mechanism for carrying out information discovery becomes feasible. An empirical study undertaken with the aid of an election database of constituencies distributed geographically, provided the insights required. This is manifested in the Election Counting and Reporting Software (ECRS) System. ECRS system is a software system, which is essentially distributed in nature designed to prepare reports to district administrators about the election counting process and to generate other miscellaneous statutory reports.Most of the distributed systems of the nature of ECRS normally will possess a "fragile architecture" which would make them amenable to collapse, with the occurrence of minor faults. This is resolved with the help of the penta-tier architecture proposed, that contained five different technologies at different tiers of the architecture.The results of experiment conducted and its analysis show that such an architecture would help to maintain different components of the software intact in an impermeable manner from any internal or external faults. The architecture thus evolved needed a mechanism to support information processing and discovery. This necessitated the introduction of the noveI concept of infotrons. Further, when a computing machine has to perform any meaningful extraction of information, it is guided by what is termed an infotron dictionary.The other empirical study was to find out which of the two prominent markup languages namely HTML and XML, is best suited for the incorporation of infotrons. A comparative study of 200 documents in HTML and XML was undertaken. The result was in favor ofXML.The concept of infotron and that of infotron dictionary, which were developed, was applied to implement an Information Discovery System (IDS). IDS is essentially, a system, that starts with the infotron(s) supplied as clue(s), and results in brewing the information required to satisfy the need of the information discoverer by utilizing the documents available at its disposal (as information space). The various components of the system and their interaction follows the penta-tier architectural model and therefore can be considered fault-tolerant. IDS is generic in nature and therefore the characteristics and the specifications were drawn up accordingly. Many subsystems interacted with multiple infotron dictionaries that were maintained in the system.In order to demonstrate the working of the IDS and to discover the information without modification of a typical Library Information System (LIS), an Information Discovery in Library Information System (lDLIS) application was developed. IDLIS is essentially a wrapper for the LIS, which maintains all the databases of the library. The purpose was to demonstrate that the functionality of a legacy system could be enhanced with the augmentation of IDS leading to information discovery service. IDLIS demonstrates IDS in action. IDLIS proves that any legacy system could be augmented with IDS effectively to provide the additional functionality of information discovery service.Possible applications of IDS and scope for further research in the field are covered.

Spanning avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics: Field dependence and geometrical properties

Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

Precursor nanoscale modulations in ferromagnets: Modeling and thermodynamic characterization

Using a Ginzburg-Landau model for the magnetic degrees of freedom with coupling to disorder, we demonstrate through simulations the existence of stripelike magnetic precursors recently observed in Co-Ni-Al alloys above the Curie temperature. We characterize these magnetic modulations by means of the temperature dependence of local magnetization distribution, magnetized volume fraction, and magnetic susceptibility. We also obtain a temperature-disorder strength phase diagram in which a magnetic tweed phase exists in a small region between the paramagnetic and dipolar phases.

Collective dynamic properties in simple crystals: Influence of the structural disorder

Collective dynamic properties in Lennard-Jones crystals are investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The study is focused on properties such as the dynamic structure factors, the longitudinal and transverse currents and the density of states. The influence on these properties of the structural disorder is analyzed by comparing the results for one-component crystals with those for liquids and supercooled liquids at analogous conditions. The effects of species-disorder on the collective properties of binary crystals are also discussed.

Webhosting and Networking

Page 1. Webhosting and Networking G. Santhosh Kumar, Dept. of Computer Science Cochin University of Science and Technology Page 2. Agenda What is a Network? Elements of a Network Hardware Software Ethernet Technology World Wide Web Setting up a Network Conclusion Page 3. What is a Network? An interconnected system of things or people Purpose of a Network? Resource Sharing Communication LANs have become the most popular form of Computer Networks Page 4. Principle of Locality of Reference Temporal Locality of Reference ...

Anàlisi, disseny i implementació de la nova web del trampolí tecnològic de la UdG

Creació d’un portal web amb informació sobre el Trampolí Tecnològic de la UdG (activitats, ofertes, etc.), i disseny d'una intranet que permeti al trampolí gestionar les diferents funcions que s'hi duen a terme (gestió dels diferents gestors de projectes, projectes que es tutelen, emprenedors i inversors que intervenen, ajudes que es poden rebre, etc.)

Intranet corporativa de Miquel Alimentació Grup, S.A.

Miquel Alimentació es una empresa líder en distribución de artículos de consumo en España. El objetivo principal del proyecto es concebir un punto de trabajo común de acceso centralizado para ubicar toda la información, aplicaciones de empresa y servicios tanto dentro como fuera de ella. Contener herramientas para la gestión, análisis y enlace de datos que permitirá la colaboración de varios usuarios

Una pràctica de simulació de cas: la resolució de problemes i el procés diagnòstic

En aquest article presentem una experiència docent dins de l’àmbit de la Psicologia del Pensament. Es tracta d’una activitat d’aprenentatge basat en problemes en la qual els estudiants han de reflexionar sobre com determinats continguts de l’assignatura, els de resolució de problemes, estan fortament relacionats amb la seva futura pràctica professional i amb el desenvolupament del seu aprenentatge des de psicòlegs novells a psicòlegs experts. En este artículo presentamos una experiencia docente en el ámbito de la Psicología del Pensamiento. Se trata de una actividad de aprendizaje basado en problemas en la que los estudiantes han de reflexionar sobre cómo determinados contenidos de la asignatura, los de resolución de problemas, estan fuertemente relacionados con su futura práctica profesional y con el desarrollo de su aprendizaje desde psicólogos novatos a psicólogos expertos