Retenção de clientes na renegociação de créditos inadimplentes: um estudo em uma grande instituição financeira brasileira

Este trabalho analisa, sob uma perspectiva quantitativa, a retenção de clientes durante o processo de renegociação de créditos inadimplentes. O foco principal é entender quais são as variáveis que explicam a retenção destes clientes e, portanto, aprimorar o processo de cobrança de uma instituição financeira no Brasil. O tema se torna relevante à medida em que vários fatores tornam a competitividade mais difícil no ambiente de crédito no país: a concentração bancária vivida na última década, o aumento da oferta de crédito nos últimos anos, a redução dos spreads bancários, e por fim a crise econômica global que afeta em especial o setor financeiro. A pesquisa procura investigar quais variáveis melhor explicam o fenômeno da retenção. Para tanto, foram segregados clientes projetados como rentáveis pela cadeia de Markov. Em seguida, testou-se a aderência de variáveis cadastrais e contratuais à variável-resposta retenção, por duas metodologias: o algoritmo CHAID da árvore de decisão e o método stepwise da regressão logística. Os resultados indicam que o método CHAID selecionou 7 e o stepwise 8 variáveis, sendo algumas de natureza cadastral e outras que vêm do próprio contrato de renegociação. Dado que as condições do contrato influenciam a retenção e portanto o valor do cliente, sugere-se que o processo de oferta incorpore operacionalmente a noção de retenção na atividade da cobrança.

Análise empírica do value-at-risk por simulação histórica com atualização de volatilidade para fundos de ações no Brasil

Há mais de uma década, o Value-at-Risk (VaR) é utilizado por instituições financeiras e corporações não financeiras para controlar o risco de mercado de carteiras de investimentos. O fato dos métodos paramétricos assumirem a hipótese de normalidade da distribuição de retornos dos fatores de risco de mercado, leva alguns gestores de risco a utilizar métodos por simulação histórica para calcular o VaR das carteiras. A principal crítica à simulação histórica tradicional é, no entanto, dar o mesmo peso na distribuição à todos os retornos encontrados no período. Este trabalho testa o modelo de simulação histórica com atualização de volatilidade proposto por Hull e White (1998) com dados do mercado brasileiro de ações e compara seu desempenho com o modelo tradicional. Os resultados mostraram um desempenho superior do modelo de Hull e White na previsão de perdas para as carteiras e na sua velocidade de adaptação à períodos de ruptura da volatilidade do mercado.

A note on learning chaotic sunspot equilibrium

In this paper we prove convergence to chaotic sunspot equilibrium through two learning rules used in the bounded rationality literature. The rst one shows the convergence of the actual dynamics generated by simple adaptive learning rules to a probability distribution that is close to the stationary measure of the sunspot equilibrium; since this stationary measure is absolutely continuous it results in a robust convergence to the stochastic equilibrium. The second one is based on the E-stability criterion for testing stability of rational expectations equilibrium, we show that the conditional probability distribution de ned by the sunspot equilibrium is expectational stable under a reasonable updating rule of this parameter. We also report some numerical simulations of the processes proposed.

Estudo analítico da estrutura organizacional do Senado Federal no ano 2001

o presente trabalho pretende responder à questão da adequação ou não da atual estrutura organizacional do Senado Federal frente às novas exigências decorrentes da promulgação da Constituição de 1988 e da mudança de parâmetros e valores trazida pelo paradigma emergente na Administração Pública a partir de 1990. O estudo se propõe a correlacionar de modo analítico quais são as funções de uma Casa legislativa com o órgão técnico responsável por sua realização, priorizando valores quanto ao atendimento do interesse público e atendendo ao cumprimento dos dispositivos constitucionais previstos nos artigos 48, 49, 50 e 52 da Carta Magna. A análise feita transporta conceitos e ferramentas desenvolvidos pelos teóricos da Administração para a prática da instituição, viabilizando dados e disponibilizando informações atualizadas com o objetivo de chamar a atenção para o problema e ampliar o seu espectro.

Descentralização ou desconcentração : AIS-SUDS-SUS

O processo de centralização vigente no setor saúde desenvolveu-se utilizando-se fortemente o mecanismo de desconcentração. A análise das três propostas de reorganização do setor saúde, no período de 1983 a 1990, aponta para uma mudança de estratégia no mecanismo de desconcentração. Anteriormente, os órgãos centrais dispunham de estruturas desconcentradas atuando nos níveis intermediários e locais. A partir de 1983 observa-se a tendência da atuação dos níveis intermediários e locais como instâncias desconcentradas do nível central. Portanto, a desconcentração é um processo em curso no setor. A desconcentração pode assumir sentidos distintos, isto é, pode ser uma estratégia de fortalecimento e atualização da centralização ou pode ser uma estratégia de fortalecimento dos níveis intermediários e locais, e, portanto, facilitadora e promotora da descentralização. Considerando o contexto delineado para o setor saúde no Brasil, caberia investigar qual o atual sentido da desconcentração.

Managerial turnover and leverage under a takeover threat

How do shareholders perceive managers who lever up under a takeover threat? Increasing leverage conveys good news if it reflects management's ability to enhance value. It conveys bad news, though, if inefficient managers are more pressured to lever up. This paper demonstrates that negative (positive) updating prevails when takeover costs are small (large). Managers who leve r up to end a takeover threat thus may commit to an increase in the firm's value and yet increase their chances of being replaced by their shareholders. The model predicts that intraindustry leverage is less dispersed when takeover costs are low.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

Humanização do atendimento à criança na atenção básica: visão dos profissionais

Objetivou-se compreender a humanização do atendimento à criança na Atenção Básica na visão dos profissionais. Estudo qualitativo, realizado em uma Unidade de Saúde da Família de Natal-RN, Brasil. Dezesseis profissionais responderam a um formulário contendo questões referentes ao atendimento à criança, à humanização e às práticas realizadas para humanizar o atendimento. Os dados foram categorizados por temas e analisados a partir dos princípios da Política Nacional de Humanização. Para os profissionais, humanizar o atendimento envolve acolher, escutar, aconselhar sobre o que está sendo realizado com a criança, valorizar a família, e tornar o sujeito ativo no atendimento, mesmo que de forma incipiente. A maioria dos profissionais descreveu atendimento que valorizava parte dos princípios da política de humanização, mesmo com dificuldades para implementá-los na rotina. Requer, portanto, estímulos e atualização dos profissionais para uma postura autocrítica sobre o atendimento

Metodologia de utilização de dados de sensoriamento remoto em zonas costeiras sob influência da indústria petrolífera

Oil spills in marine environments represent immediate environmental impacts of large magnitude. For that reason the Environmental Sensitivity to Oil Maps constitute a major instrument for planning actions of containment and cleanup. For both the Environmental Sensitivity Maps always need to be updated, to have an appropriate scale and to represent accurately the coastal areas. In this context, this thesis presents a methodology for collecting and processing remote sensing data for the purpose of updating the territorial basis of thematic maps of Environmental Sensitivity to Oil. To ensure greater applicability of the methodology, sensors with complementary characteristics, which provide their data at a low financial cost, were selected and tested. To test the methodology, an area located on the northern coast of the Northeast of Brazil was chosen. The results showed that the products of ASTER data and image hybrid sensor PALSAR + CCD and HRC + CCD, have a great potential to be used as a source of cartographic information on projects that seek to update the Environmental Sensitivity Maps of Oil

O direito à saúde: a medida do dever do estado de fornecer Medicamentos de dispensação excepcional à sociedade sob a ótica do desenvolvimento

It is a fact that the fundamental rights of citizens are being recognized and guaranteed by the state over time, regardless of the belief that if these rights has always been part of the heritage of subjective individuals, or whether they will be aggregated during the course of human history. In that, emerged the rights of freedom of men and, subsequently, the rights to create a situation of equality between the humans, the so-called social rights. In turn, as these rights known as social, to be implemented, need a positive action by the state, more precisely by the state power whose function is to manage public money and create policies for implementation of fundamental rights. Given this, pay attention to the right to health, was created the Programa de Medicamentos de Dispensação Excepcional, which aims to provide high-cost medicines to citizens Brazilian carriers of serious diseases, such as Alzheimer's and Mal Hepatitis C. Also on the program, it provides a way which will be mandatory that the drugs will be offered in such situations, and does not include a means of updating the list predicted able to monitor the progress of medicine that have been in the interest of the program. Given that, at present it is necessary to mention the recognition of another fundamental right: the right to development, which is the right of access to positive actions being implemented by the State, which are nothing more than public policy, gender which the Programa de Medicamentos de Dispensação Excepcional is kind. Thus, through the search in legislation and doctrine in relation to the theme, this work has the aim to examine the extent of the state to provide exceptional dispensing of medicines. Specifically, if the State in attention to the right to development and the implementation of the right to health, can really list exhaustively the drugs to be provided by the State, and what are the elements guiding this choice and how to control the same

Narrativa autobiográfica como prática de formação e de atualização de si : os grupos referência e o grupo reflexivo na mediação da constituição identitária docente

The thesis: "autobiographical narrative as practical continuous training and updating of itself: the groups-reference and the reflexive group in the mediation of identity construction of teaching" begins in the founder matter: "What are the implications of groups-reference in the process of identity formation and the teaching role of teachers which is participating of the research? This object of study deals with the continuing education of teachers of Basic Education and the role of the reflective group as space-time of (re) construction of educational knowledge, for the recognition of yourself. The thesis defends that the autobiographical narrative, as a pedagogical tool and research, for the initial and continuous training, is presented as theoretical and methodological foundation necessary for identity formation of the teacher. The research is limited to the qualitative approach with a focus on the autobiographical narrative. The participants are six teachers, three teachers and three students-teachers. The corpus comprises six autobiographical narratives, six reports of successful experiences, two studies on the biographical work, and six individual testimonials about the impact in personal and professional life. The data analysis was to reference Dausien and Alheit (2006), Bruner (1997), Contreras (2002), Delory-Momberger (2007), Freire (2005), Giddens (2002), Josso (2004), new (1988, 2002), Passeggi (2001, 2002), Pineau (2004), Ricoeur (2004), Souza (2006), Tardif (2002) and Vygotsky (2005). The research revealed that the formation of identity as a teachers of the educators occurred in the reference group, involving the formal, non-formal and informal of the processes of knowledge , in a movement of alternation training that includes yourself, the other and the ambient. Also revealed that the pedagogical choices of the teachers studied aimed at minimizing educational gaps that were lived in both field personal and social; that the personal identity is configured as an identity narrative and the methodology of the biographical work, through the mimesis of continuing education, provided the passage from the group reflective to the group of reference

Processo de alimentação do Sistema de Informação do HiperDia: Estudo de Caso no município de Natal/RN

Although the records indicate the involvement of the City Christmas in the feeding system HiperDia, a survey conducted by the Health Ministry in 2004 found that the number of entries made in Natal was well below estimate. In order to understand the functioning of HiperDia, we performed this study to analyze the actions taken by the professionals involved in power system HiperDia in Natal / RN. The research has developed into a quantitative perspective, with the design of exploratory case study conducted in the health services that integrate the various levels of the organization who are directly involved with the process of system power HiperDia in Natal / RN , represented here by SMS, health districts and the Family Health Units in the period from August to October 2008.Study participants were 110 professionals, including nurses, physicians, operators, administrator and a coordinator. The survey results showed that feeding HiperDia in Natal was maintained mainly by health professionals and operators. Activities include carrying out the state registration, monitoring, and updating of data transfer routines. They report that the difficulties in the process of feeding data are related to the work of teams and / or lack of structure of the Program of Hypertension and Diabetes (HA and DM), the discontinuity of federal investments in improving the HiperDia and lack of training. We can see then that the process of feeding system on Christmas HiperDia therefore is developing the three levels (SMS, districts and health units), however is not matching the expectations established by MS, considering that the gaps the flow of information are undermining the end result of this process

O ensino de enfermagem gerontológica na formação do enfermeiro

At the current time of demographic changes in the world , it is observed that the health sector requires restructuring of its practices in caring for the elderly , in order to enable a comprehensive and humane care . In this sense, we identify the need for qualified professionals to assist the elderly and, therefore , it is important that training curricula are adequate to this reality . The study aims to analyze how it develops teaching gerontological nursing component in undergraduate nursing . This is a descriptive , exploratory study with a qualitative approach, in two higher education institutions in the city of Natal / RN . The population involved corresponded to the coordinators of graduate courses in nursing and teachers who teach content of health care for the elderly, a total of seven participants . The data collection instruments were used: a questionnaire containing questions related to the characterization of the participants and the teaching of gerontological nursing in undergraduate courses in nursing and a form with items of analysis for pedagogical projects . The results were presented descriptively in tables and analyzed from coming themes of the main themes of the instruments defined in: knowledge about the research participants , knowledge of teaching gerontological nursing component and knowledge of pedagogical projects , discussed under Resolution paragraph . 03 of 7/11/2001 , which establishes standards for the nursing program , the educational projects of educational institutions , the Theoretical Donald Shoon and thematically relevant literature . The results indicate that the majority of participants were female (four), all have graduate though , none of them stated in the qualification of aging or elderly health area; the organization of the contents of the component in the curriculum, workload theoretical- methodological and practical teaching strategies presented was heterogeneous and sometimes diverging at the same institution . On the definition of gerontological nursing component was identified that is not well defined along the pedagogical design of educational institutions surveyed . It was concluded that in the context of this study , teaching gerontological nursing is present in the course of nursing education, but needs reevaluation and updating in order to teach a wider range of driving and health practices

Uma arquitetura de software baseada em componentes visualização de informações industriais

Due to the current need of the industry to integrate data of the beginning of production originating from of several sources and of transforming them in useful information for sockets of decisions, a search exists every time larger for systems of visualization of information that come to collaborate with that functionality. On the other hand, a common practice nowadays, due to the high competitiveness of the market, it is the development of industrial systems that possess characteristics of modularity, distribution, flexibility, scalability, adaptation, interoperability, reusability and access through web. Those characteristics provide an extra agility and a larger easiness in adapting to the frequent changes of demand of the market. Based on the arguments exposed above, this work consists of specifying a component-based architecture, with the respective development of a system based on that architecture, for the visualization of industrial data. The system was conceived to be capable to supply on-line information and, optionally, historical information of variables originating from of the beginning of production. In this work it is shown that the component-based architecture developed possesses the necessary requirements for the obtaining of a system robust, reliable and of easy maintenance, being, like this, in agreement with the industrial needs. The use of that architecture allows although components can be added, removed or updated in time of execution, through a manager of components through web, still activating more the adaptation process and updating of the system

SAMVC sistema de autoria de museus virtuais colaborativos

The use of graphical objects three-dimensional (3D) multimedia applications is gaining more space in the media. Networks with high transmission rates, computers with large processing and graphics boost and popularize such three-dimensional applications. The areas of 3D applications ranging from military applications, entertainment applications geared up for education. Within the applications related to education, we highlight the applications that create virtual copies of cultural spaces such as museums. Through this copy, you can virtually visit a museum, see other users, communicate, exchange information on works, etc. Thereby allowing the visit museums physically distant remote users. A major problem of such virtual environments is its update. By dealing with various media (text, images, sounds, and 3D models), its subsequent handling and update on a virtual environment requires staff with specialized knowledge. Speaking of museums, they hardly have people on your team with this profile. Inside the GT-MV (Grupo de Trabalho de Museus Virtuais), funded by RNP (Rede Nacional de Ensino e Pesquisa) propose a portal for registration, amendment and seen collaborative virtual museums of Brazil. The update, be it related to work or physical space, a system with a national scale like this, would be impossible if done only by the project team. Within this scenario, we propose the modeling and implementation of a tool that allows editing of virtual spaces in an easy and intuitive as compared with available tools. Within the context of GT-MV, we apply the SAMVC (Sistema de Autoria de Museus Virtuais Colaborativos) to museums where curators build the museum from a 3D floor plan (2D). The system, from these twodimensional information, recreates the equivalent in three dimensions. With this, through little or no training, team members from each museum may be responsible for updating the system