Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

Att bli, att vara och att ha varit - om ingångar i och utgångar ur Jehovas vittnen i Sverige

Summary To become, to be and to have been: about the  Jehovah’s Witnesses The Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, in the following text referred to as the Jehovah’s Witnesses or “the organisation”, is a worldwide Christian organisation with about 6.7 million members. The organisation has many times, without any success so far, proclaimed Armageddon when they expect Jehovah to return to Earth. They interpret the Bible in their own, often very literal way, and require their members to live according to these interpretations. Among the consequences of this, members are forbidden to vote, to do military service or to receive blood transfusions. Apart from attending the three weekly meetings, members are expected to be active in missionary work, known as “publishing”. If a member fails to do a certain number of hours’ publishing, he or she risks being deprived of active membership status Sweden in general is considered to be a society where the population is not very religious. The formerly state-governed Lutheran church has lost its influence and the vast majority of ordinary Swedes do not visit church on other occasions than weddings, funerals or christenings. Expressing one’s own religious values has become somewhat of a private matter where publicity is seldom appreciated, which is contrary to the practice of the Jehovah’s Witnesses. This is one of the reasons why the Jehovah’s Witnesses are commonly perceived by average Swedes as a “suspicious” religious organisation. The aim and methods of the study This dissertation seeks to describe and investigate the entering and leaving of a highly structured and hierarchical religious community, exemplified in this case by the Jehovah’s Witnesses. What are the thoughts and aspirations of someone who is considering becoming a Jehovah’s Witness? What are the priorities and what experiences seem important when a person is going through such a process? And when this person has finally reached his or her goal of becoming a member, is it the same motivation that makes him or her stay in the organisation for longer periods of time, possibly for the rest of their lives, or does it change during the process of entering, or does this motivation change its character during the transition from entering to being a regular member? Why do some of the members change their attitude to the Jehovah’s Witnesses from rejoicing to bitterness? And how does this process of exit manifest itself? In what way is it different from the process of entry? The respondents in this study were chosen from both active members of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Sweden and those who have left the organisation for personal reasons. Repeated interviews with ten active members of the organisation have been conducted in the course of the study and compared to equal numbers of former members. The interviews have been semi-structured to deal with questions of how a person has come into contact with the organisation; how they retrospectively experienced the process of entry; the reasons for becoming a member. Questions have also been asked about life in the organisation. The group of “exiters” have also been asked about the experience of leaving, why they wanted to leave, and how this process was started and carried out. In addition to this I have analysed a four-year diary describing the time inside and the process of leaving the organisation. This has given me an extra psychological insight into the inner experience of someone who has gone through the whole process. The analysis has been done by categorising the content of the transcribed interviews. An attempt to outline a model of an entry and exit process has been made, based on ideas and interpretations presented in the interviews. The analysis of the diary has involved thorough reading, resulting in a division of it into four different parts, where each part has been given a certain key-word, signifying the author’s emotional state when writing it. A great deal of the information about the Jehovah’s Witnesses has been collected through discussion boards on the Internet, informal talks with members and ex-members, interviews with representatives of the organisations during visits to its different offices (Bethels), such as St. Petersburg, Russia, and Brooklyn, New York, USA. The context Each organisation evolves in its own context with its own norms, roles and stories that would not survive outside it. With this as a starting point, there is a chapter dedicated to the description of the organisation’s history, structure and activities. It has been stated that the organisation’s treatment of its critical members and the strategies for recruiting new members have evolved over the years of its history. At the beginning there was an openness allowing members to be critical. As the structure of the organisation has become more rigid and formalised, the treatment of internal critics has become much less tolerated and exclusion has become a frequent option. As a rule many new members have been attracted to the organisation when (1) the day of Armageddon has been pronounced to be approaching; (2) the members of the organisation have been persecuted or threatened with persecution; and (3) the organisation has discovered a “new market”. The processes for entering and exiting How the entering processes manifest themselves depends on whether the person has been brought up in the organisation or not. A person converting as an adult has to pass six phases before being considered a Jehovah’s Witness by the organisation. These are:  Contact with the Jehovah’s Witnesses, Studying the bible with members of the organisation, Questioning, Accepting, Being active as publisher (spreading the belief), Being baptised.  For a person brought up in the organisation, the process to full membership is much shorter:   Upbringing in the organisation, Taking a stand on the belief, Being baptised. The exit process contains of seven phases:   Different levels of doubts, Testing of doubts, Turning points, Different kinds of decisions, Different steps in executing the decisions, Floating, a period of emotional and cognitive consideration of membership and its experiences, Realtive neutrality.   The process in and the process out are both slow and are accompanied with anguish and doubts. When a person is going through the process in or out of the organisation he or she experiences criticism. This is when people around the adept question the decision to continue in the process. The result of the criticism depends on where in the process the person is. If he or she is at the beginning of the process, the criticism will probably make the person insecure and the process will slow down or stop. If the criticism is pronounced in a later phase, the process will probably speed up. The norms of the organisation affect the behaviour of the members. There are techniques for inclusion that both bind members to the organisation and shield them off from the surrounding society. Examples of techniques for inclusion are the “work situation” and “closed doors”. The work situation signifies that members who do as the organisation recommends – doing simple work – often end up in the same branch of industry as many other Jehovah’s Witnesses. This often means that the person has other witnesses as workmates. If the person is unemployed or moves to another town it is easy to find a new job through connections in the organisation. Doubts and exclusions can lead to problems since they entail a risk of losing one’s job. This can also result in problems getting a new job. Jehovah’s Witnesses are not supposed to talk to excluded members, which of course mean difficulties working together. “Closed doors” means that members who do as the organisation recommends – not pursuing higher education, not engaging in civil society, working with a manual or in other way simple job, putting much time into the organisation – will, after a long life in the organisation, have problems starting a new life outside the Jehovah’s Witnesses. The language used in the organisation shows the community among the members, thus the language is one of the most important symbols. A special way of thinking is created through the language. It binds members to the organisation and sometimes it can work as a way to get back into the normative world of the organisation. Randall Collins’s (1990, 2004) thoughts about “emotional energy” have enabled an understanding of the solidarity and unity in the organisation. This also gives an understanding of the way the members treat doubting and critical members. The members who want to exit have to open up the binding/screening off. A possible way to do that is through language, to become aware of the effect the language might have. Another way is to search for emotional energy in another situation. During the exit process, shame might be of some importance. When members become aware of the shame they feel, because they perceive they are “acting a belief”, the exit process might accelerate.

Triggering Solar-Powered Vehicle Activated Signs using Self Organising Maps with K-means

Solar-powered vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs powered by batteries that are recharged by solar panels. These signs are more desirable than other active warning signs due to the low cost of installation and the minimal maintenance requirements. However, one problem that can affect a solar-powered VAS is the limited power capacity available to keep the sign operational. In order to be able to operate the sign more efficiently, it is proposed that the sign be appropriately triggered by taking into account the prevalent conditions. Triggering the sign depends on many factors such as the prevailing speed limit, road geometry, traffic behaviour, the weather and the number of hours of daylight. The main goal of this paper is therefore to develop an intelligent algorithm that would help optimize the trigger point to achieve the best compromise between speed reduction and power consumption. Data have been systematically collected whereby vehicle speed data were gathered whilst varying the value of the trigger speed threshold. A two stage algorithm is then utilized to extract the trigger speed value. Initially the algorithm employs a Self-Organising Map (SOM), to effectively visualize and explore the properties of the data that is then clustered in the second stage using K-means clustering method. Preliminary results achieved in the study indicate that using a SOM in conjunction with K-means method is found to perform well as opposed to direct clustering of the data by K-means alone. Using a SOM in the current case helped the algorithm determine the number of clusters in the data set, which is a frequent problem in data clustering.

A representação de música brasileira nos livros didáticos de música

O presente trabalho de pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar de que forma a música brasileira é representada nos livros didáticos de música direcionados para a escola do Ensino Básico e produzidos no Brasil nas décadas de 60 e 70. A escolha desse período é justificada por ser nessas décadas que a música brasileira é apresentada como conteúdo nos livros didáticos de forma mais acentuada do que em outros períodos. Tendo como referencial teórico-metodológico o conceito de representação de R. Chartier, o estudo procurou abarcar as concepções explícitas e implícitas, relativo a idéias, valores e intenções que perpassam nos textos e imagens, permitindo compreender o porquê de certas escolhas referentes a determinados conteúdos, em detrimento de outros, da forma como são abordados nos livros didáticos, bem como identificar os cânones eleitos para representar estilos, gêneros musicais, compositores, obras e épocas da música brasileira.

O processo de elaboração da lei orçamentária do município do Rio de Janeiro: ficção ou realidade?

This study discusses the preparation and execution of the Municipal Annual Budget Law of the City of Rio de Janeiro. It tries to show how the City historically evolved and how its administrative structure was built, leading to the offer of public services to a residing population of approximately six million people today. By using processes of supplementary credits to the Budget, comparing results of the budget execution along a four-year period and with charts related to these years, answers are searched to explain the reasons for amendments to the Annual Budget Law, which modify it and change part of its initial objectives, in spite of hours of previous planning work dedicated to its preparation. This research shows a City in its context and puts together a few data, through a survey of budget management actions, to report on the administrative complexity of metropolis like Rio de Janeiro, although without the intent of being definitive in terms of exhausting the issue.

Implantação de tecnologia de monitoramento remoto para e-service: um estudo exploratório

The purpose of this study is to define measures to increase customer satisfaction and company competitiveness using a remote monitoring technology, in an exploratory study of Alpha Elevator Company (nick name chosen to the company by the actor of the dissertation). Regarding the competitive market, the service industry is striving to achieve productivity, following the example of the manufacturing industry. Nevertheless, these efforts are limited by the amount of hours worked per week, month or year, since the sector charges its services based on the hours spent working on the equipment of the client or based on the numbers of visits. This study is based in the overcoming of the traditional paradigm of selling number of hours by a system of selling results and performance. Employing a remote monitoring system, the elevators under the company service are monitored continually and defects are detected and transmitted to the customer care center, via phone line. The customers can access this data through the Internet and obtain information like availability rate of their elevators and call back response time rate, besides being able to buy products on the company¿s home page and to send feedback. The results were obtained by participating in conferences among experts of the company, in Japan and the United States. Through the analysis of the business environment and based on the bibliographic reference, a strategy was developed to implement e-service as a competitive differentiation.

Brasil em lições: a história do ensino de história do Brasil no Império através dos manuais de Joaquim Manuel de Macedo

Esta dissertação trata daqueles que são considerados os principais compêndios didáticos de História do Brasil do século XIX. A construção do Estado Imperial provocou significativas mudanças nas vidas de muitos componentes da "boa sociedade", dentre eles os próprios dirigentes imperiais. Uma destas vidas foi a de Joaquim Manuel de Macedo - professor do principal colégio do Império, autor dos mais importantes compêndios de História do Brasil do século XIX e divulgador de um método de ensino adotado por inúmeras gerações de professores. Lições de História do Brasil para uso dos alunos do Imperial Colégio de Pedro 11 e Lições de História do Brasil para uso das escolas de Instrução Primária - obras de perfil conservador, elas fixaram para sucessivas gerações de "boa sociedade" imperial conteúdos, métodos, valores e imagens de uma História do Brasil que cumpria o papel de não apenas legitimar a ordem imperial, mas também e sobretudo de pôr em destaque o lugar do Império do Brasil no conjunto das "Nações Civilizadas" e o lugar da "boa sociedade" no conjunto da sociedade imperial, permitindo, assim, a construção de uma identidade.

O saber impotente: estudo da noção de ciência na obra infantil de Monteiro Lobato

A obra infantil de Monteiro Lobato apresenta a ciência de forma diferenciada em três fases. Na primeira, a ciência é inútil e representa um empecilho no desenrolar das aventuras. Na segunda,ela é o próprio motor das histórias. Na terceira, é vista como ferramenta mal utilizada pela civilização. Monteiro Lobato se vinculou a um grupo ontelectual de São Paulo cuja ação está na base da formação do Partido Democritico na década de vinte. A estrutura das fases identificadas na obra infantil corresponde à trajetória política do grupo. Num primeiro momento, ele luta por afirmar-se, por se estabelecer na política regional contra o conservadorismo do PRP. Num segundo momento ele se faz vitorioso, dirigindo o estado; finalmente ele é derrotado pelo golpe de 1937, se desagrega. Seus membros são cooptados ou perseguidos. Assim, a obra infantil de Lobato retrata a saga do liberalismo oligárquico em São Paulo durante a Primeira República.

As expectativas e experiências dos cadetes da Força Aérea frente a instituição e ao seu currículo

Este trabalho consiste no confronto entre as expectativas dos alunos e o currículo oferecido pela AFA, compreendendo tanto a formação como o futuro desempenho profissional dos alunos. Entre os objetivos do trabalho destacam- se: 1º) Identificar a proposta dos cursos oferecidos pela AFA, seus respectivos objetivos, carga horária , etc.; 2º) Identificar a percepção que os alunos e professores têm de sua formação acadêmica e preparo especifico de especialização 3º) Fornecer subsídios para uma possível revisão da proposta curricular da AFA.

O bibliotecário perfeito: o historiador Ramiz Galvão na Biblioteca Nacional

Em 1870, o jovem e praticamente desconhecido Benjamin Franklin Ramiz Galvão foi nomeado para ocupar o cargo de diretor da Biblioteca Nacional, posto do qual saiu doze anos depois, já como intelectual consagrado, para assumir a função de tutor dos netos de D. Pedro II. Durante o período em que esteve à frente desta instituição, Ramiz Galvão projetou fazer daquele espaço a biblioteca da nação brasileira. Isso significava construir uma instituição cuja função fosse salvaguardar o patrimônio documental brasileiro, torná-lo disponível a um público especializado e estimular estudos sobre a história e a geografia do país. O objetivo era fazer da Biblioteca Nacional um lugar de referência, sintonizada com suas congêneres europeias e em diálogo com os meios letrados nacionais. Nesse sentido, a atuação de Galvão foi fundamental para a construção de uma rede de sociabilidade que o ligava a estudiosos, livreiros, bibliófilos e bibliotecários de diversos lugares do Brasil, da América e da Europa. Esta tese analisa a proposta de reformulação da Biblioteca Nacional empreendida por Ramiz Galvão, buscando associá-la a um projeto maior de construção da nação brasileira. Para isso, investigaremos três elementos que consideramos principais desse trabalho de edificação de uma Biblioteca nacional: 1) a construção de uma rotina de serviços, que foi capaz de transformar o pequeno espaço com livros da antiga Biblioteca Real na mais importante biblioteca do Brasil; 2) o esforço de aquisição e de seleção de um patrimônio documental brasileiro e sua divulgação em publicações como os Anais da Biblioteca Nacional e o Catálogo da Exposição de História do Brasil, dois de seus mais importantes empreendimentos como diretor; 3) a atuação de Ramiz Galvão como mediador cultural no ambiente letrado brasileiro do final do século XIX.

Proposta de método para avaliação do desempenho térmico de residências unifamiliares em clima quente e úmido

Nowadays, evaluation methods to measure thermal performance of buildings have been developed in order to improve thermal comfort in buildings and reduce the use of energy with active cooling and heating systems. However, in developed countries, the criteria used in rating systems to asses the thermal and energy performance of buildings have demonstrated some limitations when applied to naturally ventilated building in tropical climates. The present research has as its main objective to propose a method to evaluate the thermal performance of low-rise residential buildings in warm humid climates, through computational simulation. The method was developed in order to conceive a suitable rating system for the athermal performance assessment of such buildings using as criteria the indoor air temperature and a thermal comfort adaptive model. The research made use of the software VisualDOE 4.1 in two simulations runs of a base case modeled for two basic types of occupancies: living room and bedroom. In the first simulation run, sensitive analyses were made to identify the variables with the higher impact over the cases´ thermal performance. Besides that, the results also allowed the formulation of design recommendations to warm humid climates toward an improvement on the thermal performance of residential building in similar situations. The results of the second simulation run was used to identify the named Thermal Performance Spectrum (TPS) of both occupancies types, which reflect the variations on the thermal performance considering the local climate, building typology, chosen construction material and studied occupancies. This analysis generates an index named IDTR Thermal Performance Resultant Index, which was configured as a thermal performance rating system. It correlates the thermal performance with the number of hours that the indoor air temperature was on each of the six thermal comfort bands pre-defined that received weights to measure the discomfort intensity. The use of this rating system showed to be appropriated when used in one of the simulated cases, presenting advantages in relation to other evaluation methods and becoming a tool for the understanding of building thermal behavior

Por uma moradia termicamente confortável: proposta de habitação de interesse social com ênfase no conforto térmico

This research covers the topic of social housing and its relation to thermal comfort, so applied to an architectural and urban intervention in land situated in central urban area of Macaíba/RN, Brazil. Reflecting on the role of design and use of alternative building materials in the search for better performance is one of its main goals. The hypothesis is that by changing design parameters and choice of materials, it is possible to achieve better thermal performance results. Thus, we performed computer simulations of thermal performance and natural ventilation using computational fluid dynamics or CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). The presentation of the thermal simulation followed the methodology proposed in the dissertation Negreiros (2010), which aims to find the percentage of the amount of hours of comfort obtained throughout the year, while data analysis was made of natural ventilation from images generated by the images extracted from the CFD. From model building designed, was fitted an analytical framework that results in a comparison between three different proposals for dwellings housing model, which is evaluated the question of the thermal performance of buildings, and also deals with the spatial variables design, construction materials and costs. It is concluded that the final report confirmed the general hypotheses set at the start of the study, it was possible to quantify the results and identify the importance of design and construction materials are equivalent, and that, if combined, lead to gains in thermal performance potential.

Greve do voto: a política da antipolítica nas eleições municipais de 2004 em Fortaleza

This study discusses the use of communication strategies in the dispute for political hegemony in the contemporary society. In order to do so, one starts from the concept of politics in its broad sense, involving, besides parties and parliaments, the groups and organized social movements. The comprehension that the political activity, nowadays, involves the media, made part of this study be focused on the investigation of problems in this relationship. We analyzed, especially, the communication actions promoted by the Grupo Crítica Radical, in which participate, among others, Maria Luiza Fontenelle, former mayor of Fortaleza, and Rosa da Fonseca, former concillor. They left their old parties after a process of self-criticism concerning their incumbencies, partly influenced by the books of Robert Kurz about the collapse of capitalism . After this historical contextualization, one starts the analysis of the campaign Greve do Voto promoted by the Group during the municipal elections of 2004. The production of campaign material, the street drama, the small shows and the fact that the press covered the campaign are discussed starting from the theoretical formulations presented on this research, understanding, this way, the challenge of these groups to build an action against the hegemony allied to the universe of the mass media

Teodora e Porcina: faces simbólicas da natureza em narrativas de mulheres sábias

This research looks at the collective imagination in which it keeps alive the issue of heroin wise. Two wise women appear in the narratives of popular history and the History of Donzela Theodora and History Imperatriz Porcina, collated by Luís da Câmara Cascudo in his Five Books of the People. The universality, mobility and circularity of these narratives are discussed by authors such as Bakhtin and Guinzburg. The research is developed from three key categories: Knowledge Magic as the knowledge of tradition (Almeida), sensitive knowledge (Levi-Strauss), thought mythical / magical / symbolic (Morin); Wise Women as carriers of this knowledge, which merge and overlap with the imagery of witches and healers; and Mythical Elements which corresponds to the archetypal images (Jung and Silveira), symbols and other images that relate to the magic universe, the magical beliefs and practices considered, ie belonging to the imaginary magic (Bethencourt). Porcina and Theodora are understood as bearers of knowledge of Métis (Detienne and Vernant), or the cunning intelligence, the manipulation of phármakon (Derrida), the healing potion, which may be the word or ointment of the herb. The route takes us to meet the great archetype of the Wise Woman as psychic power of the feminine, the anima. Narratives are medicinal balms (Estes) and is the clash between the anima and its embodiments by wise women, and animus, his opponents, which gives the transmutation of the psyche, a work comparable to that of alchemyThe Knowledge Magic, operating through the female, myth and nature can recover from its essential value to the emerging paradigm that suggests a more complete human science and a more plural