Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Contributo da informação gemelar para a investigação da síndrome metabólica: um estudo da famílias na Região Autónoma da Madeira

Os objectivos gerais deste trabalho foram: (1) estimar a magnitude dos respectivos efeitos genéticos e ambientais nos indicadores da síndrome metabólica; (2) estimar a prevalência da síndrome metabólica nos gémeos monozigóticos e dizigóticos; e (3) estimar o risco de agregação nos indicadores da síndrome metabólica. A amostra envolveu 414 sujeitos madeirenses, nomeadamente 207 pares de gémeos (84 pares de gémeos monozigóticos e 123 pares de gémeos dizigóticos), dos 3 aos 18 anos, que participaram no projecto de investigação: "Influências Genéticas e Envolvimento na Actividade Física, Aptidão e Saúde – O Estudo de Famílias da Madeira" (GEAFAS). A síndrome metabólica teve por base as recomendações do Adult Treatment Panel III (2001), com os pontos de corte propostos por Ferranti et al. (2004). As estimativas de heritabilidade revelaram efeitos genéticos em todos os indicadores da SM: perímetro da cintura (a2 = 0.80), seguida dos triglicerídeos (a2 = 0.61), pressão arterial sistólica (a2 = 0.59), glicose (a2 = 0.55) e colesterol HDL (a2 = 0.34). As estimativas dos efeitos do ambiente único da glicose, pressão arterial sistólica, triglicerídeos, colesterol HDL e perímetro da cintura foram 0.45, 0.41, 0.39, 0.22 e 0.20, respectivamente. O ambiente comum reportou uma estimativa de 0.44 para o colesterol HDL. Foi encontrada uma prevalência da síndrome metabólica de 4.1%, 2.4% para os gémeos monozigóticos e de 5.3% para os gémeos dizigóticos. O colesterol HDL foi o factor de risco mais prevalecente (22.9%). Os gémeos monozigóticos apresentam um maior risco de agregação da síndrome metabólica. Da amostra total, 48.1% das crianças e adolescentes apresentou no mínimo um factor de risco. As crianças e adolescentes madeirenses demonstraram uma etiologia multifactorial nos componentes da síndrome metabólica incluindo os factores genéticos e ambientais. A prevalência da SM foi baixa. Os dados sugerem agregação familiar no risco dos diferentes indicadores da síndrome metabólica.

Projeto e gestão de redes de transmissão e sistemas auxiliares

Neste relatório de estágio, entregue para obtenção do grau de mestre, é elaborado um sistema de registo e tratamento de alarmes em paralelo com a especificação e implementação de um sistema protótipo de recolha de alarmes em armários exteriores, para otimização da gestão da rede da Portugal Telecom (PT). O início do projeto agrupa o contato com as tecnologias de transmissão e alarmística da rede através do estado da arte e estudo dos equipamentos existentes, sobretudo Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH) no que concerne aos débitos, à interligação de tecnologias, à sua monitorização e configuração. É indicado, ao longo do procedimento prático, o trabalho elaborado para a concentração dos dados do departamento numa única plataforma, disponibilizada aos utilizadores, a qual também é capaz de realizar um cruzamento dos alarmes da rede com os padrões encontrados para a ocorrência de determinados alarmes. O módulo implementado para a recolha de alarmes, que satisfaz um dos problemas de adaptação de estruturas remodeladas, é igualmente descrito, atendendo às necessidades de implementação e requisitos impostos pela empresa. O estudo das estruturas núcleo existentes, o acompanhamento do projeto de monitorização de alarmes de uma área de agregação de serviços e o desenvolvimento do trabalho são realizados através do gabinete de projeto e gestão de rede do departamento de operações da Madeira. Os resultados favorecem a Portugal Telecom em termos de atualização da sua estrutura de monitorização de alarmes, aumento da eficiência de resolução de problemas e optimização da gestão de recursos humanos.

De repente, tudo mudou de lugar: refletindo sobre metamorfose urbana e gentrificação em Mossoró-RN

This study aims at solidifying the theoretical bases to provide, above all, an explanation for this phenomenon which currently happens, with a scenario of social, political, economic and cultural transformations worldwide in medium cities. Nevertheless, because it has different dimensions from its transformation axes, gentrification comes with change, but also with the introduction of a new purpose in the space using and occupation, outlining in this context the identity of places from the formation of centralities with the presence of flows with social and economic dynamicsThe current forms of geographic space appropriation show the directions of the senses and ideological profile which recreates the meanings and uses of content and materials from descriptions of a historical past. However, today there is an economic context in the urban space which refers to a search of strategies for change, i.e., the acquisition of parameter aimed at meeting the demands of the relationship between capital and labor, which ends up overriding some actions for the specification of the transformation methods within the urban space to be explained by new needs and also by the agents from the value adding to their interests and investments. Thus, we assume that the appreciation/gentrification of urban spaces may or may not result from the building of a public space, since the dialogic structure as a place of political interaction externalize conflicts and disagreements in general; it keeps segregating spaces. As new spaces are transformed, the access to them tends to happen with particular restriction, whereas some places like parks, shopping malls, high-rise and horizontal condos are the scene for major professional and family events. In this context, the gentrification process is used to designate interventions in the urban environment, in certain city spaces which are considered central to public and private investments. A historical place is permitted to be presented as a scenario, a stage full of attractions, through the transformation process. Studying gentrification consists of an analysis of the underlying interests in the transformation of these areas, and especially of the assessment of the interest level in the private sector to partner in order to modify the landscape. Gentrification results from the transformation processes of capital, which influences the efforts and investments application in order to establish and achieve optimal economic growth, focusing on a location socio-culturally centered in the urban space. Thus, the urban social structure develops in the light of some questions that relate not only the cities growth but also environmental conditions it provides in cities like Mossoro, State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil 2005 a 2011.

A cidade sem barreiras é para todos?: avaliação das condições de deslocamento no bairro da Cidade Alta, Natal/RN

In this present work, the conditions of displacements and the behaviors of the users are evaluated, face to the physical adequacies in accessibility in the inserted area in the central quadrilateral of the Quarter of Cidade Alta, in the City of Natal/RN, space clipping established by its great meaning historical and cultural. For this reason such area was a target of an integrated actions plan during the years of 1993 and 1998, with the implantation of part of the Project CIDADE SEM BARREIRAS (City without Barriers) and, later, the implementation of the Project CIDADE PARA TODOS's proposals (City for All), having as supports the constant Brazilian norms inserted into the NB9050/1994 and in the Municipal law number 4.090/92, effective ones in the period of the interventions. Considering that the carried through actions at the time were directed to the elimination of the architectural barriers to guarantee the right to go and to come, the research received a human universe formed by all the people in situation of displacement in the central area of the interventions in the quarter of the Cidade Alta, independently of their locomotive or sensorial conditions, emphasizing the aspects most excellent how much to the accessibility of the sidewalk, as promotional of mobility, integration and urban organization, as well as of the public squares of that one quadrilateral, conceived, originally, as spaces of aggregation and social inclusion. The work appealed to the direct comment and the gotten results had been collated with the ex port facto law and technique norms, of the year of 2004, and with the legal devices contained in the Federal Decree number 5.296/2004, as way to certify the levels of efficiency of these adaptations in that it says respect to the current conditions of demanded accessibility and urban mobility

Inserção da informática nos cursos de Arquitetura e Urbanismo do Brasil (1994 2006): diagnósticos, rebatimentos e perspectivas nas Instituições Federais de Ensino Superior do Nordeste: UFRN, UFPB e UFPE

This work supports the formalist education s improvement of the Brazilian architect and urban designer through a better application and systematization of the computer science s teaching potentialities. The research analyzes the discipline introduction in the Brazilian courses: Computer Science Applied to Architecture and Urbanism (InfoAU) in the Architecture and Urbanism Courses of Brazil (CAUs). It goes since the discipline was obligated by the MEC s Regulation nr. 1.770 from 1994 until the CNE/CES Resolution nr. 6 from 2006; it comprehends the discipline implantation, development and current context, in order to get more detailed, the research analyses three federal universities from the Northeast of the country: UFRN, UFPB and UFPE. Once identified the historical educational needs in the CAUs, the study focus on the computer science s increasing potential as an agent of integration, communication, development and knowledge/data management. It points out new social perspectives for a better use of this tool/mechanism, which adequately structuralized and integrated, creates propitious educational and professional performance/recycling conditions and a propeller instrument of research and extension activities. Among this work, it is suggested the aggregation of elements, which are complementary to the InfoAU discipline s reorganization, throughout a computerization s plan for the CAUs, extensive to the professional formation, generating a virtuous cycle in several activities of the academic, administrative and, research and extension s departments. Therefore, the InfoAU in the Brazilian CAUs context was analyzed; the main solutions and problems found were systemized; the possibilities of computer science s uses inside AU ware structuralized, InfoAU discipline s improvement plan was also defined, as well as strategies for the implementation of the computerization s plan for the CAUs, which would guarantee its maintenance in a continuity perspective

Influência de fatores ambientais na Leishmaniose visceral no Rio Grande do Norte

The Visceral Leishmaniose (LV) disease is endemic in some places in Brazil. It is caused by the protozoa Leishmania chagasi, being transmitted for vector, the phlebotomies, Lutzomyia longipalpis. In virtue of the expansion of the illness in Rio Grande do Norte, it is necessary to evaluate the determinative ambient factors in the proliferation of the vector for better control of the illness. The variable rainfall and the social variables had been analyzed using space regression with two models and the ambient variable of ZANE and the variables analyzed in 205 houses in the cities of Natal, Extremoz, Nísia Floresta, São Gonçalo do Amarante, São Jose do Mipibu, Parnamirim and Macaíba the Person and ML Chi-square were used . The analyses had shown that high rainfall, plain relief, the forest, the humid tropical climate the activities of production culture of sugar cane and fruit culture and the presence of bovines increase the risk of the LV. The work showed that it has space aggregation and that ambient factors influence in the LV in the State

Análise fractal da vasculatura arteriolar e venular da retina em pessoas sem doença ocular

Although it has been suggested that retinal vasculature is a diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) fractal, no study has been dedicated to standardizing its fractal analysis . The aims of this project was to standardize a method to estimate the fractal dimensions of retinal vasculature and to characterize their normal values; to determine if this estimation is dependent on skeletization and on segmentation and calculation methods; to assess the suitability of the DLA model and to determine the usefulness of log-log graphs in characterizing vasculature fractality . To achieve these aims, the information, mass-radius and box counting dimensions of 20 eyes vasculatures were compared when the vessels were manually or computationally segmented; the fractal dimensions of the vasculatures of 60 eyes of healthy volunteers were compared with those of 40 DLA models and the log-log graphs obtained were compared with those of known fractals and those of non-fractals. The main results were: the fractal dimensions of vascular trees were dependent on segmentation methods and dimension calculation methods, but there was no difference between manual segmentation and scale-space, multithreshold and wavelet computational methods; the means of the information and box dimensions for arteriolar trees were 1.29. against 1.34 and 1.35 for the venular trees; the dimension for the DLA models were higher than that for vessels; the log-log graphs were straight, but with varying local slopes, both for vascular trees and for fractals and non-fractals. This results leads to the following conclusions: the estimation of the fractal dimensions for retinal vasculature is dependent on its skeletization and on the segmentation and calculation methods; log-log graphs are not suitable as a fractality test; the means of the information and box counting dimensions for the normal eyes were 1.47 and 1.43, respectively, and the DLA model with optic disc seeding is not sufficient for retinal vascularization modeling

Fatores de risco individuais e familiares no desenvolvimento da pré-eclâmpia

Preeclampsia is a spectral disease, with different clinical forms which can evolve with severe multisystemic complications. This present study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with preeclampsia (PE); to validate the existence of aggregation of hypertensive disease in families of women with preeclampsia and verify the existence of association between polymorphisms in the VEGF gene and level of VEGF and its soluble receptor (sFlt1). A case-control study was performed (n = 851). Genotyping of VEGF was performed and serum levels of VEGF and sFlt1 were measured by ELISA. It was observed that 38% of mothers (173, 455) of a case of preeclampsia and 30.8% (78 of 361) of controls had history of hypertension (p <0.0001). Similarly, when examining the history of maternal preeclampsia, we observed that 14.6% (48 of 328) of mothers of women with preeclampsia and 9.6% (12 of 294) of mothers of controls had a history of preeclampsia (p = 0.0001). As for maternal history of preeclampsia, we found that 5.1% (15 of 295) of cases and 3.6% (7 of 314) of controls had a history of preeclampsia (p = 0.0568). Sisters of women with preeclampsia also had a history of hypertensive disease in 9% (41 of 455) versus 6.6% (13 of 361), p = 0.002. Similarly when examining the history of preeclampsia in sisters, it was observed that 22.7% (57 of 251) of a sister of case versus 11.4% (26 of 228) of controls had a history of preeclampsia (P = 0.0011). We observed a decrease in free VEGF in the serum of patients (P <0.05) and increased soluble VEGF receptor. There was no association between polymorphisms in the VEGF gene and preeclampsia. The data obtained in this work validate that hypertensive disease in mothers and sisters with preeclampsia are risk factors for preeclampsia. The risk of illness in the family is higher according to disease severity. High incidence of preeclampsia can be assumed by the high incidence of this disease among the controls. Significant differences between the frequency of preeclampsia in mothers of cases and controls indicate familial factors. Work is being conducted with the to eventually perform genome wide association studies to identify susceptibility loci

Fatores genéticos e étnicos relacionados à evolução da infecção por Leishmania infantum

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Micropartículas poliméricas à base de xilana e Eudragit® S-100 contendo mesalazina visando à liberação cólon-específica

Colon-specific drug delivery systems have attracted increasing attention from the pharmaceutical industry due to their ability of treating intestinal bowel diseases (IBD), which represent a public health problem in several countries. In spite of being considered a quite effective molecule for the treatment of IBD, mesalazine (5-ASA) is rapidly absorbed in the upper gastrointestinal tract and its systemic absorption leads to risks of adverse effects. The aim of this work was to develop a microparticulate system based on xylan and Eudragit® S- 100 (ES100) for colon-specific delivery of 5-ASA and evaluate the interaction between the polymers present in the systems. Additionaly, the physicochemical and rheological properties of xylan were also evaluated. Initially, xylan was extracted from corn cobs and characterized regarding the yield and rheological properties. Afterwards, 10 formulations were prepared in different xylan and ES100 weight ratios by spray-drying the polymer solutions in 0.6N NaOH and phosphate buffer pH 7.4. In addition, 3 formulations consisting of xylan microcapsules were produced by interfacial cross-linking polymerization and coated by ES100 by means of spray-drying in different polymer weight ratios of xylan and ES100. The microparticles were characterized regarding yield, morphology, homogeneity, visual aspect, crystallinity and thermal behavior. The polymer interaction was investigated by infrared spectroscopy. The extracted xylan was presented as a very fine and yellowish powder, with mean particle size smaller than 40μm. Regarding the rheological properties of xylan, they demonstrated that this polymer has a poor flow, low density and high cohesiveness. The microparticles obtained were shown to be spherical and aggregates could not be observed. They were found to present amorphous structure and have a very high thermal stability. The yield varied according to the polymer ratios. Moreover, it was confirmed that the interaction between xylan and ES100 occurs only by means of physical aggregation

Padrões de infestação de comunidades de plantas daninhas no agroecossistema de cana-crua

Objetivou-se neste trabalho a obtenção de padrões de infestação de plantas daninhas na cultura de cana-de-açúcar com histórico de colheita mecanizada sem queima prévia da palha. Foram realizadas amostragens em 28 talhões na região de Ribeirão Preto, SP; em cada talhão foram demarcadas unidades de avaliação e coleta, na proporção de duas por hectare, que consistiram de áreas (quatro linhas de 4 metros de comprimento) mantidas sem controle de plantas daninhas e onde foram realizadas as amostragens de plantas emergidas. As amostragens foram realizadas aos 120 dias após o corte, com quadrados vazados (0,5 x 0,5 m) lançados aleatoriamente duas vezes em cada uma das unidades de avaliação e coleta. Com os dados obtidos, calculou-se a importância relativa e o índice de agregação das espécies ou grupo de espécies. Esses índices foram usados no processamento da análise de agrupamento hierárquica, utilizando como medida de semelhança a distância euclidiana e como estratégia de agrupamento o método UPGMA (Unweighted Pair-Group Method using arithmetic Averages). Foi possível distinguir quatro grupos em função da importância relativa e cinco grupos de talhões em função do índice de agregação; dentro de alguns grupos houve formação de subgrupos.

Fitossociologia de comunidades de plantas daninhas em agroecossistema cana-crua

Objetivou-se neste trabalho estudar a fitossociologia de comunidades de plantas daninhas de canaviais colhidos no sistema mecanizado, sem queima prévia da palha, e a similaridade entre talhões quanto à composição de espécies. Os levantamentos foram realizados em 28 talhões comerciais na região de Ribeirão Preto-SP. em cada talhão foram demarcadas áreas de coleta e avaliação, na proporção de duas por hectare, mantidas sem controle, e que serviram de local para as amostragens de plantas daninhas. As amostragens foram feitas com quadrados vazados (0,5 x 0,5 m), lançados aleatoriamente duas vezes em cada uma das áreas. Essas amostragens foram realizadas determinando-se a densidade e a biomassa específica aos 120 dias após o corte da cana. Cyperus rotundus foi a principal espécie, destacando-se quanto aos valores de importância relativa (IR). As plantas dicotiledôneas anuais de propagação por sementes também se destacaram, dentre as quais diversas espécies das famílias Euphorbiaceae e Convolvulaceae. em contrapartida, as gramíneas tradicionais de áreas de cana colhida queimada tiveram pouco destaque. O índice de Shannon (H) de diversidade de espécies das comunidades variou de 0 a 1,61, e o índice de similaridade entre os talhões (S) foi muito variável. A maioria das espécies ou grupo de espécies apresentou padrão agregado (V/m > 1,00), com valores relativamente altos de índice de agregação (V/m). Entretanto, na maioria dos casos, Cyperus rotundus e as Convolvulaceas apresentaram os maiores índices.

Spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) in citrus orchards

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