Strategies: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction

The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requirements to predict its behavior reliably are so enormous that the nations of the world should create a small number of multinational high-performance computing facilities dedicated to the grand challenges of developing the capabilities to predict climate variability and change on both global and regional scales over the coming decades. Such facilities will play a key role in the development of next-generation climate models, build global capacity in climate research, nurture a highly trained workforce, and engage the global user community, policy-makers, and stakeholders. We recommend the creation of a small number of multinational facilities with computer capability at each facility of about 20 peta-flops in the near term, about 200 petaflops within five years, and 1 exaflop by the end of the next decade. Each facility should have sufficient scientific workforce to develop and maintain the software and data analysis infrastructure. Such facilities will enable questions of what resolution, both horizontal and vertical, in atmospheric and ocean models, is necessary for more confident predictions at the regional and local level. Current limitations in computing power have placed severe limitations on such an investigation, which is now badly needed. These facilities will also provide the world's scientists with the computational laboratories for fundamental research on weather–climate interactions using 1-km resolution models and on atmospheric, terrestrial, cryospheric, and oceanic processes at even finer scales. Each facility should have enabling infrastructure including hardware, software, and data analysis support, and scientific capacity to interact with the national centers and other visitors. This will accelerate our understanding of how the climate system works and how to model it. It will ultimately enable the climate community to provide society with climate predictions, which are based on our best knowledge of science and the most advanced technology.

Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities

The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requirements to predict its behavior reliably are so enormous that the nations of the world should create a small number of multinational high-performance computing facilities dedicated to the grand challenges of developing the capabilities to predict climate variability and change on both global and regional scales over the coming decades. Such facilities will play a key role in the development of next-generation climate models, build global capacity in climate research, nurture a highly trained workforce, and engage the global user community, policy-makers, and stakeholders. We recommend the creation of a small number of multinational facilities with computer capability at each facility of about 20 peta-flops in the near term, about 200 petaflops within five years, and 1 exaflop by the end of the next decade. Each facility should have sufficient scientific workforce to develop and maintain the software and data analysis infrastructure. Such facilities will enable questions of what resolution, both horizontal and vertical, in atmospheric and ocean models, is necessary for more confident predictions at the regional and local level. Current limitations in computing power have placed severe limitations on such an investigation, which is now badly needed. These facilities will also provide the world's scientists with the computational laboratories for fundamental research on weather–climate interactions using 1-km resolution models and on atmospheric, terrestrial, cryospheric, and oceanic processes at even finer scales. Each facility should have enabling infrastructure including hardware, software, and data analysis support, and scientific capacity to interact with the national centers and other visitors. This will accelerate our understanding of how the climate system works and how to model it. It will ultimately enable the climate community to provide society with climate predictions, which are based on our best knowledge of science and the most advanced technology.

The design of a semantics-oriented organisational performance measurement system

Current methods and techniques used in designing organisational performance measurement systems do not consider the multiple aspects of business processes or the semantics of data generated during the lifecycle of a product. In this paper, we propose an organisational performance measurement systems design model that is based on the semantics of an organisation, business process and products lifecycle. Organisational performance measurement is examined from academic and practice disciplines. The multi-discipline approach is used as a research tool to explore the weaknesses of current models that are used to design organisational performance measurement systems. This helped in identifying the gaps in research and practice concerning the issues and challenges in designing information systems for measuring the performance of an organisation. The knowledge sources investigated include on-going and completed research project reports; scientific and management literature; and practitioners’ magazines.

Climate and more sustainable cities: climate information for improved planning and management of cities (producers/capabilities perspective)

In the last two decades substantial advances have been made in the understanding of the scientific basis of urban climates. These are reviewed here with attention to sustainability of cities, applications that use climate information, and scientific understanding in relation to measurements and modelling. Consideration is given from street (micro) scale to neighbourhood (local) to city and region (meso) scale. Those areas where improvements are needed in the next decade to ensure more sustainable cities are identified. High-priority recommendations are made in the following six strategic areas: observations, data, understanding, modelling, tools and education. These include the need for more operational urban measurement stations and networks; for an international data archive to aid translation of research findings into design tools, along with guidelines for different climate zones and land uses; to develop methods to analyse atmospheric data measured above complex urban surfaces; to improve short-range, high-resolution numerical prediction of weather, air quality and chemical dispersion through improved modelling of the biogeophysical features of the urban land surface; to improve education about urban meteorology; and to encourage communication across scientific disciplines at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 4.0 and JULES global land 4.0 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

Institutional framing of CSR and social entrepreneurship interactions in South Africa

Objectives. This paper considers the intersection of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and social entrepreneurship in South Africa through the lens of institutional theories and draws upon a number of illustrative case study examples. In particular it: (1) charts the historically evolving relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa, and how this relationship has been informed by institutional changes since the end of apartheid, particularly over the last few years; (2) identifies different interactional relationship forms between social enterprises and corporates engaging in CSR, with an emphasis on new innovative multi-stakeholder partnerships; and (3) considers internal engagements with social responsibility by SME social enterprises in South Africa. Prior Work. Reflecting South Africa’s history of division, the controversial role of business during apartheid, and the ongoing legacies of that period, the South African government has been particularly pro-active in encouraging companies to contribute to development and societal transformation through CSR and Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). Accordingly a substantial body of work now exists examining and critically reflecting upon CSR and BEE across a range of sectors. In response to perceived problems with BEE, efforts have recently been made to foster broader-based economic empowerment. However the implications of these transitions for the relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa have received scant academic attention. Approach. Analysis is undertaken of legislative and policy changes in South Africa with a bearing on CSR and social entrepreneurship. Data collected during fieldwork in South Africa working with 6 social enterprise case studies is utilised including qualitative data from key informant interviews, focus groups with stakeholders and observational research. Results. The paper considers the historically evolving relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa informed by institutional change. Five different relationship forms are identified and illustrated with reference to case examples. Finally internal engagement with social responsibility concerns by small and medium social enterprises are critically discussed. Implications. This paper sheds light on some of the innovative partnerships emerging between corporates and social enterprises in South Africa. It reflects on some of the strengths and weaknesses of South Africa’s policy and legislative approaches. Value. The paper provides insights useful for academic and practitioner audiences. It also has policy relevance, in particularly for other African countries potentially looking to follow South Africa’s example, in the development of legislative and policy frameworks to promote corporate responsibility, empowerment and transformation.

iPad use in fieldwork: formal and informal use to enhance pedagogical practice in a bring your own technology world

We report on use of iPads (and other IOS devices) for student fieldwork use and as electronic field notebooks and to promote active. We have used questionnaires and interviews of tutors and students to elicit their views and technology and iPad use for fieldwork. There is some reluctance for academic staff to relinquish paper notebooks for iPad use, whether in the classroom or on fieldwork, as well as use them for observational and measurement purposes. Students too are largely unaware of the potential of iPads for enhancing fieldwork. Apps can be configured for a wide variety of specific uses that make iPads useful for educational as well as social uses. Such abilities should be used to enhance existing practice as well as make new functionality. For example, for disabled students who find it difficult to use conventional note taking. iPads can be used to develop student self-directed learning and for group contributions. The technology becomes part of the students’ personal learning environments as well as at the heart of their knowledge spaces – academic and social. This blurring of boundaries is due to iPads’ usability to cultivate field use, instruction, assessment and feedback processes. iPads can become field microscopes and entries to citizen science and we see the iPad as the main ‘computing’ device for students in the near future. As part of the Bring Your Own Technology/Device (BYOD) the iPad has much to offer although, both staff and students need to be guided in the most effective use for self-directed education via development of Personal Learning Environments. A more student-oriented pedagogy is suggested to correspond to the increasing use of tablet technologies by students

Therapist characteristics and their effect on training outcomes: what counts?

Background: Evidence exists for a relationship between individual characteristics and both job and training performance; however relationships may not be generalizable. Little is known about the impact of therapist characteristics on performance in postgraduate therapist training programmes. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate associations between the grades of trainee Low-Intensity and High-Intensity cognitive behavioural therapists and individual characteristics. Method: Trainee Low-Intensity (n=81) and High-Intensity (n=59) therapists completed measures of personality and cognitive ability; demographic and course grade data for participants were collected. Results: Degree classification emerged as the only variable to be significantly associated with performance across assessments and courses. Higher undergraduate degree classifications were associated with superior academic and clinical performance. Agreeableness was the only dimension of personality to be associated (positively) with clinical skill. Age was weakly and negatively associated with performance. Conclusions: Relationships between individual characteristics and training outcomes are complex and may be context specific. These results could have important implications for the selection and development of therapists for Low or High-Intensity cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) training.

Viral marketing and the new competitive advantage

The role played by viral marketing has received considerable academic and digital media attention recently. Key issues in viral marketing have been examined through the lens of the mode of marketing message transmission, including self-replicating on the basis of quality difference, individuals’ emotional needs, as well as how users are connected across various social networks. This paper presents a review and analysis of viral marketing studies from 2001 to the present day. It investigates how viral marketing facilitate the diffusion of social media products and the relationship between marketers and these product users by taking a look at the implementation of viral marketing in two European online game firms Jagex Games Studio and Rovio Entertainment. The results from this review and analysis indicate that viral marketing plays an important role in accelerating the interaction between marketers and users (as well as the user groups) in the field of digital media and high tech consumption. Therefore, it is evident that firms should understand the social contagion process and target well-connected users purposefully in order to create its competitive advantage.

Dietary Quality and Associated Factors among Factory Workers in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The workplace is a manageable community-based setting for ensuring proper nutrition. This study aimed to evaluate dietary quality and associated factors among adult workers at a cosmetics factory in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. This factory was actively participating in the Brazilian Workers` Meal Program, which was created to ensure workers` nutritional health. In this cross-sectional study, data on 202 adult workers were assessed using questionnaires (sociodemographic, anthropometric, and lifestyle characteristics) administered during August and September 2006. Dietary intake, measured by 24-hour dietary recall, was used to calculate the modified Healthy Eating Index (HEI). A repeated administration of the 24-hour dietary recall was applied in a random subsample to calculate the modified HEI adjusted for the within-person variation in intake. Mean adjusted modified HEI scores were analyzed using multiple linear regression adjusted for energy. The mean adjusted modified HEI score was 72.3 +/- 8.0. The lowest adjusted modified HEI components scores were ""milk and dairy products"" (4.4 +/- 3.2) and ""sodium"" (3.7 +/- 3.1). Two percent of workers had ""poor diet"" (adjusted modified HEI score <51 points) and the majority (87%) had ""diet that needs modification"" (adjusted modified HEI score between 51 and 80), despite their participation in the meal program. Adjusted modified HEI scores were considerably higher for men (74.7 +/- 7.0) than for women (66.9 +/- 8.2) and for normal body mass index (calculated as kg/m(2)) (73.3 +/- 7.8) than for overweight/obese (70.9 +/- 8.1). Based on these results, the vast majority of workers were found to have diets that needed improvement. Individuals with higher-quality diets were more likely to have lower body mass index and to be male. J Am Diet Assoc. 2010;110:786-790.

Relationship between sleeping on the night shift and recovery from work among nursing workers - the influence of domestic work

P>Aim. This paper is a report of a study on the association between sleep patterns during work nights and recovery from work among nursing workers, considering domestic work hours. Background. Several hospitals allow nursing workers to sleep during the night shift, but this is rarely evaluated from the workers` health perspective. The need for recovery from work concept can be useful for testing the impact of night work on sleep. Recovery is not a problem if workers have enough time to recover between periods of work. Therefore, domestic work would be likely to interfere in the recovery process. Methods. This cross-sectional study was carried out at three hospitals in 2005-2006, through a comprehensive questionnaire. All nursing teams engaged in assistance to patients were invited to participate. Analyses included female night workers with no incidence of insomnia. Participants (n = 396) were classified into those who did not sleep during night shifts, those who slept for up to 2 hours and those who slept for 2-3 hours. Results. Binomial logistic regression analysis showed that sleeping on the job for 2-3 hours during night shifts is related to a better recovery from work provided the workers do not undergo long domestic work hours. Conclusions. Being allowed to sleep at work during night shifts seemed to contribute to, but was not enough to guarantee, a good recovery from work in the studied population. Recommendations to deal with sleep-deprivation among night workers should consider the complexity of gender roles on the recovery process.

Seasonality and growth rings in lianas of Bignoniaceae

Lianas are one of the most important components of tropical forest, and yet one of the most poorly known organisms. Therefore, our paper addresses questions on the environmental and developmental aspects that influence the growth of lianas of Bignoniaceae, tribe Bignonieae. In order to better understand their growth, we studied the stem anatomy, seasonality of formation and differentiation of secondary tissues, and the influence of the cambial variant in xylem development on a selected species: Tynanthus cognatus. Afterwards, we compared the results found in T. cognatus with 31 other species of Bignonieae to identify general patterns of growth in lianas of this tribe. We found that cambial activity starts toward the end of the rainy season and onset of the dry season, in contrast to what is known for tropical trees and shrubs. Moreover, their pattern of xylem formation and differentiation is strongly influenced by the presence of massive wedges of phloem produced by a variant cambium. Thus, the variant cambium is the first to commence its activity and only subsequently does cambial activity progress towards the center of the regular region, leading to the formation of confluent growth rings. In summary, we conclude that: the cambium responds to environmental changes; the xylem growth rings are annual and produced in a brief period of about 2 months, something that may explain why lianas possess narrow stems; and furthermore, phloem wedges greatly influence cambial activity.

An illustrated checklist of Bromeliaceae from Parque Estadual do Rio Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil, with notes on phytogeography and one new species of Cryptanthus

A checklist of the 14 genera and 34 species of Bromeliaceae from the Parque Estadual do Rio Preto in Sao Goncalo do Rio Preto municipality, Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil, is presented. The Tillandsioideae was the most diverse subfamily and was found to be concentrated in rocky field areas. Bromelioideae is also a species rich subfamily, but its taxa have shown a preference to forested areas and savannas at lower altitudes. Pitcairnioideae is highlighted by its level of endemism, but has only four species. Cryptanthus micrus, a new species found in this area is described and illustrated. Our cluster analysis indicated that the Rio Preto State Park has a Bromeliaceae flora more similar to that from Pico do Itambe and Grao Mogol State Parks. Taxa like Dyckia glandulosa, Orthophytum itambense and Vriesea medusa, which were previously considered to be endemic to Pico do Itambe, now have their area of occurrence extended to Rio Preto. These new occurrences highlight the importance to create a corridor joining these neighboring reserves to connect populations of narrowly ranged or rare species. In this work we present pictures of 19 species in their habitats within the park, and we hope that these illustrations will help in the identification and conservation of these taxa.