Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

Développement d'indicateurs pour le contrat de prestations 2008 entre le Cipret et le Département de l'économie et de la santé (DES) : élaboration d'une théorie d'action du Cipret Genève selon le Modèle de catégorisation des résultats de Promotion Santé Suisse

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 2. Méthode. 3. Théorie d'action et plan de monitorage des résultats des activités du Cipret (Centre d'information et de prévention du tabagisme) : priorités pour l'année 2008: Axe 1: Informer sur les conséquences de la consommation de tabac et sur la promotion de la santé. Axe 2: Contribuer à la cohérence de la politique de santé publique en matière de tabac. Axe 3: Diminuer le nombre de nouveaux fumeurs. Axe 4: Aider au sevrage du tabac. Annexes.

Affirmative Action Policy and Effort Levels. Sequential-Move Contest Game Argument

In this paper we analyse a simple two-person sequential-move contest game with heterogeneous players. Assuming that the heterogeneity could be the consequence of past discrimination, we study the effects of implementation of affirmative action policy, which tackles this heterogeneity by compensating discriminated players, and compare them with the situation in which the heterogeneity is ignored and the contestants are treated equally. In our analysis we consider different orders of moves. We show that the order of moves of contestants is a very important factor in determination of the effects of the implementation of the affirmative action policy. We also prove that in such cases a significant role is played by the level of the heterogeneity of individuals. In particular, in contrast to the present-in-the-literature predictions, we demonstrate that as a consequence of the interplay of these two factors, the response to the implementation of the affirmative action policy option may be the decrease in the total equilibrium effort level of the contestants in comparison to the unbiased contest game.

Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection of one of the two models. However, there are parameter regions for which the non-rational forecasting model is selected in the long-run. A key structural parameter governing outcomes measures the degree of expectations feedback in Muth's model of price determination.

Unionisation, International Integration and Selection

We study how unionisation affects competitive selection between heterogeneous firms when wage negotiations can occur at the rm or at the profit-centre level. With productivity specific wages, an increase in union power has: (i) a selection-softening; (ii) a counter-competitive; (iii) a wage-inequality; and (iv) a variety effect. In a two-country asymmetric setting, stronger unions soften competition for domestic firms and toughen it for exporters. With profit-centre bargaining, we show how trade liberalisation can affect wage inequality among identical workers both across firms (via its effects on competitive selection) and within firms (via wage discrimination across destination markets).

Payoff levels, loss avoidance, and equilibrium selection in the Stag Hunt: an experimental study

Game theorists typically assume that changing a game’s payoff levels—by adding the same constant to, or subtracting it from, all payoffs—should not affect behavior. While this invariance is an implication of the theory when payoffs mirror expected utilities, it is an empirical question when the “payoffs” are actually money amounts. In particular, if individuals treat monetary gains and losses differently, then payoff–level changes may matter when they result in positive payoffs becoming negative, or vice versa. We report the results of a human–subjects experiment designed to test for two types of loss avoidance: certain–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a sure loss, in favor of an alternative that might lead to a gain) and possible–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a possible loss, in favor of an alternative that leads to a sure gain). Subjects in the experiment play three versions of Stag Hunt, which are identical up to the level of payoffs, under a variety of treatments. We find differences in behavior across the three versions of Stag Hunt; these differences are hard to detect in the first round of play, but grow over time. When significant, the differences we find are in the direction predicted by certain– and possible–loss avoidance. Our results carry implications for games with multiple equilibria, and for theories that attempt to select among equilibria in such games.

Trade Costs, International Competition and Selection: The Effects of Unionisation on Market Size

Within a two-country model of international trade in which heterogeneous firms face firm-specific unions, we study the effects of different forms of trade liberalisation on market structure and competitive selection in the presence of inter-country asymmetries in size and labour market institutions. For given levels of trade openness, an increase in a country’s relative unions’ strength reduces the average productivity of its domestic producers but increases that of its exporters. Whilst an unfavourable union power differential, by increasing wages, weakens a country’s firms’ competitive position, the higher wages reinforce standard market access mechanisms to give rise to aggregate income effects. When the initial levels of trade openness are sufficiently low, this ‘expansionary’ aggregate effect can attract industry in the country with stronger unions and also result in an increase in the extensive margin of exports. For sufficiently large inter-country differences in the bargaining power of unions, trade liberalization can then result in a pro-variety effect, with an increase in the total availability of varieties to consumers in both countries, regardless of there being inter-country differences in size.

Action of colchicine on hepatic schistosomal granuloma

Amorphous material and altered collagen fragments within dilated secretory vesicles and cisternae of fibroblast cytoplasm were the main ultrastructural changes seen in hepatic periovular granulomas formed in mice infected with Schistosoma mansoni and treated with colchicine. Despite promoting ultrastructural changes in the fibroblasts found in hepatic periovular granulomas, colchicine administration to infected mice did not significantly change the light microscopic appearance of the hepatic schistosomal lesions, did not diminish the amount of total hepatic collagen, and did not change the collagen isotypes in the granulomas, as observed after a comparative study with non-colchicine treated infected control mice. When administered to mice two weeks after curative treatment of schistosomiasis with praziquantel, colchicine did not seem to increase extracellular collagen degradation or to induce a more rapid resorption of hepatic periovular granulomas, although still promoting ultrastructura alterations in fibroblasts.

Mechanism of action of a nitroimidazole-thiadiazole derivate upon Trypanosoma cruzi tissue culture amastigotes

Megazol (CL 64,855) a very effective drug in experimental infections by Trypanosoma cruzi, and also in in vitro assays with vertebrate forms of the parasite, had its parasite, had its activity upon macromolecule biosynthesis tested using tissue culture-derived amastigote forms. Megazol presented a drastic inhibition of [3H]-uridine incorporation, suggesting a selective activity upon protein synthesis. Comparing the three drugs, megazol was more potent than nifurtimox and benznidazole in inhibiting protein an DNA synthesis. Megazol showed a 91% of inhibition of [3H]-leucine incorporation whereas nifurtimox and benznidazole, 0% and 2%, respectively. These latter two drugs inhibited the incorporation of all the precursors tested at similar levels, but the concentration of benznidazole was always three times higher, suggesting different mechanisms of action or, more probably, a greater efficiency of the 5-nitrofuran derivate in relation to the 2-nitroimidazole. So, wes conclude that the mode of action of megazol is different from the ones of nifurtimox and benznidazole and that its primary effect is associated with an impairment of protein synthesis.

Evolutionary genomics and HIV restriction factors.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To provide updated insights into innate antiviral immunity and highlight prototypical evolutionary features of well characterized HIV restriction factors. RECENT FINDINGS: Recently, a new HIV restriction factor, Myxovirus resistance 2, has been discovered and the region/residue responsible for its activity identified using an evolutionary approach. Furthermore, IFI16, an innate immunity protein known to sense several viruses, has been shown to contribute to the defense to HIV-1 by causing cell death upon sensing HIV-1 DNA. SUMMARY: Restriction factors against HIV show characteristic signatures of positive selection. Different patterns of accelerated sequence evolution can distinguish antiviral strategies--offense or defence--as well as the level of specificity of the antiviral properties. Sequence analysis of primate orthologs of restriction factors serves to localize functional domains and sites responsible for antiviral action. We use recent discoveries to illustrate how evolutionary genomic analyses help identify new antiviral genes and their mechanisms of action.