Auto plant closures, policy responses and labour market outcomes:a comparison of MG Rover in the UK and Mitsubishi in Australia

This paper provides a preliminary comparative longitudinal analysis of the impact on workers made redundant due to the closure of the Mitsubishi plant in Adelaide and the MG Rover plant in Birmingham. Longitudinal surveys of ex-workers from both firms were undertaken over a 12-month period in order to assess the process of labour market adjustment. In the Mitsubishi case, given the skills shortage the state of Adelaide was facing, together with the considerable growth in mining and defence industries, it would have been more appropriate if policy intervention had been redirected to further training or re-skilling opportunities for redundant workers. This opportunity was effectively missed and as a result more workers left the workforce, most notably for retirement, than could have otherwise been the case. The MG Rover case was seen as a more successful example of policy intervention, with greater funding assistance available and targeted support available, and with more emphasis on re-training needs to assist adjustment. However, despite the assistance offered and the rhetoric of successful adjustment in both cases, the majority of workers have nevertheless experienced deterioration in their circumstances particularly in the Australian case where casual and part-time work were often the only work that could be obtained. Even in the UK case, where more funding assistance was offered, a majority of workers reported a decline in earnings and a rise in job insecurity. This suggests that a reliance on the flexible labour market is insufficient to promote adjustment, and that more active policy intervention is needed especially in regard to further up-skilling.

Changes at the BCLA

As we welcome 2014 we say goodbye to 2013 and I must start with an apology to authors who have submitted papers to CLAE and seen a delay in either the review process or the hard copy publication of their proofed article. The delays were caused by a major hike in the number of submissions to the journal in 2012 that increased further in 2013. In the 12 months leading to the end of October 2011 we had 94 new paper submissions, and for the same period to the end of 2012 the journal had 116 new papers. In 2012 we were awarded an impact factor for the first time and following that the next 12 month period to the end of October 2013 saw a massive increase in submissions with 171 new manuscripts being submitted. This is nearly twice as many papers as 2 years ago and 3 times as many as when I took over as Editor-in-Chief. In addition to this the UK academics will know that 2014 is a REF year (Research Excellence Framework) where universities are judged on their research and one of the major components of this measure remains to be published papers so there is a push to publishing before the REF deadline for counting. The rejection rate at CLAE has gone up too and currently is around 50% (more than double the rejection rate when I took over as Editor-in-Chief). At CLAE the number of pages that we publish each year has remained the same since 2007. When compiling issue 1 for 2014 I chose the papers to be included from the papers that were proofed and ready to go and there were around 200 proofed pages ready, which is enough to fill 3½ issues! At present Elsevier and the BCLA are preparing to increase the number the pages published per issue so that we can clear some of this backlog and remain up to date with the papers published in CLAE. I should add that on line publishing of papers is still available and there may have been review delays but there are no publishing online so authors can still get an epub on line final version of their paper with a DOI (digital object identifier) number enabling the paper to be cited. There are two awards that were made in 2013 that I would like to make special mention of. One was for my good friend Jan Bergmanson, who was awarded an honorary life fellowship of the College of Optometrists. Jan has served on the editorial board of CLAE for many years and in 2013 also celebrated 30 years of his annual ‘Texan Corneal and contact lens meeting’. The other award I wish to mention is Judith Morris, who was the BCLA Gold Medal Award winner in 2013. Judith has had many roles in her career and worked at Moorfields Eye Hospital, the Institute of Optometry and currently at City University. She has been the Europe Middle East and Africa President of IACLE (International Association of Contact Lens Educators) for many years and I think I am correct in saying that Judith is the only person who was President of both the BCLA (1983) and a few years later she was the President College of Optometrists (1989). Judith was also instrumental in introducing Vivien Freeman to the BCLA as they had been friends and Judith suggested that Vivien apply for an administrative job at the BCLA. Fast forward 29 years and in December 2013 Vivien stepped down as Secretary General of the BCLA. I would like to offer my own personal thanks to Vivien for her support of CLAE and of me over the years. The BCLA will not be the same and I wish you well in your future plans. But 2014 brings in a new position to the BCLA – Cheryl Donnelly has been given the new role of Chief Executive Officer. Cheryl was President of the BCLA in 2000 and has previously served on council. I look forward to working with Cheryl and envisage a bright future for the BCLA and CLAE. In this issue we have some great papers including some from authors who have not published with CLAE before. There is a nice paper on contact lens compliance in Nepal which brings home some familiar messages from an emerging market. A paper on how corneal curvature is affected by the use of hydrogel lenses is useful when advising patients how long they should leave their contact lenses out for to avoid seeing changes in refraction or curvature. This is useful information when refracting these patients or pre-laser surgery. There is a useful paper offering tips on fitting bitoric gas permeable lenses post corneal graft and a paper detailing surgery to implant piggyback multifocal intraocular lenses. One fact that I noted from the selection of papers in the current issue is where they were from. In this issue none of the corresponding authors are from the United Kingdom. There are two papers each from the United States, Spain and Iran, and one each from the Netherlands, Ireland, Republic of Korea, Australia and Hong Kong. This is an obvious reflection of the widening interest in CLAE and the BCLA and indicates the new research groups emerging in the field.

One-year outcome of bevacizumab therapy for chronic macular edema in central and branch retinal vein occlusions in real-world clinical practice in the UK

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the 12-month outcome of macular edema secondary to both chronic and new central and branch retinal vein occlusions treated with intravitreal bevacizumab in the real-life clinical setting in the UK. Methods: Retrospective case notes analysis of consecutive patients with retinal vein occlusions treated with bevacizumab in 2010 to 2012. Outcome measures were visual acuity (measured with Snellen, converted into logMAR [logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution] for statistical calculation) and central retinal thickness at baseline, 4 weeks post-loading phase, and at 1 year. Results: There were 56 and 100 patients with central and branch retinal vein occlusions, respectively, of whom 62% had chronic edema and received prior therapies and another 32% required additional laser treatments post-baseline bevacizumab. Baseline median visual acuity was 0.78 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.48–1.22) in the central group and 0.6 (IQR 0.3–0.78) in the branch group. In both groups, visual improvement was statistically significant from baseline compared to post-loading (P,0.001 and P=0.03, respectively), but was not significant by month 12 (P=0.058 and P=0.166, respectively); 30% improved by at least three lines and 44% improved by at least one line by month 12. Baseline median central retinal thickness was 449 μm (IQR 388–553) in the central group and 441 µm (IQR 357–501) in the branch group. However, the mean reduction in thickness was statistically significant at post-loading (P,0.001) and at the 12-month time point (P,0.001) for both groups. The average number of injections in 1 year was 4.2 in the central group and 3.3 in the branch group. Conclusion: Our large real-world cohort results indicate that bevacizumab introduced to patients with either new or chronic edema due to retinal vein occlusion can result in resolution of edema and stabilization of vision in the first year.

Eating behaviours of preadolescent children over time:stability, continuity and the moderating role of perceived parental feeding practices

The links between childhood eating behaviours and parental feeding practices are well-established in younger children, but there is a lack of research examining these variables in a preadolescent age group, particularly from the child's perspective, and longitudinally. This study firstly aimed to examine the continuity and stability of preadolescent perceptions of their parents' controlling feeding practices (pressure to eat and restriction) over a 12 month period. The second aim was to explore if perceptions of parental feeding practices moderated the relationship between preadolescents' eating behaviours longitudinally. Two hundred and twenty nine preadolescents (mean age at recruitment 8.73 years) completed questionnaires assessing their eating behaviours and their perceptions of parental feeding practices at two time points, 12 months apart (T1 and T2). Preadolescents' perceptions of their parental feeding practices remained stable. Perceptions of restriction and pressure to eat were continuous. Perceptions of parental pressure to eat and restriction significantly moderated the relationships between eating behaviours at T1 and T2. The findings from this study suggest that in a preadolescent population, perceptions of parental pressure to eat and restriction of food may exacerbate the development of problematic eating behaviours.

The relationship of thymulin activity, immune parameters of HIV disease progression and substance use in a cohort of HIV seropositive alcohol and drug users

Zinc is essential for the activity of thymulin, a thymic hormone involved in T-lymphocyte differentiation and activation. Zinc deficiency is widespread in populations with HIV infection, and HIV+ drug users are particularly susceptible to zinc deficiency and immune suppression. This dissertation explored the relationship of zinc-bound active thymulin to plasma zinc, CD4+ and CD8+ cell count, the CD4+/CD8+ ratio, and drug use in HIV-infected drug users. Zinc-bound active thymulin was assessed in plasma of HIV+ drug users who were participating in a 30 month zinc supplementation trial. Plasma from 80 participants at the 12 month visit, and 40 of these same participants, randomly selected, at the baseline visit were assessed for zinc-bound active thymulin levels using a modification of the rosette inhibition assay. Thymulin activity was directly associated with CD4+ cell count (β = 0.127, p = 0.002) and inversely associated with cocaine use (β = −0.908, p = 0.026; R2 = 0.188, p = 0.019) independent of HIV viral load, age, gender and antiretroviral use. An increase in thymulin activity was 1.4 times more likely when CD4+ cell count increased (OR = 1.402, 95%CI: 1.006–1.956), independent of change in viral load, antiretroviral use, and age. Participants who used cocaine consistently, were 7.6 times less likely to have an increase in thymulin activity (OR = 0.133, 95%CI: 0.017–1.061). There was a direct correlation between change in plasma zinc and change in zinc-bound active thymulin (r = 0.243, p = 0.13). Analysis of CD4+ cell count decline in 222 participants in the zinc supplementation trial across the 30 months showed that both crack cocaine use and heavy alcohol use accelerated CD4+ cell count decline. Thymulin activity is directly associated with HIV disease progression, measured by CD4+ cell count, and is depressed with cocaine use independent of antiretroviral use and HIV viral load. Cocaine and heavy alcohol accelerate CD4+ cell count decline. The effect of cocaine on thymic output requires further evaluation as a mechanism for the association of cocaine use with faster HIV disease progression.

Effects of Contingent Maternal Imitation vs. Contingent Motherese Speech on Infant Canonical Babbling

Maternal vocal stimulation plays a vital role in infants’ language acquisition. Contingent maternal imitation and contingent motherese speech were used in an alternating sequence as reinforcers to a 12 month-old infant’s canonical babbling. Both vocal contingencies function as reinforcers; however, motherese speech produced the highest frequency of canonical babbling.

Group cognitive -behavioral therapy for heterogeneous anxiety disorders in children and adolescents: A multiple baseline study

This study investigated the efficacy of Group Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (GCBT) in the treatment of heterogeneous anxiety disorders in children. A partially nonconcurrent multiple baseline across groups design was used to assess the effects of the treatment on 12 clinically referred children and adolescents between 6 and 16 years of age who met DSM-IV criteria for an anxiety disorder. Targeted diagnoses included Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, Simple Phobia, Separation Anxiety Disorder, Social Phobia, and Generalized Anxiety Disorder, with three of the children also presenting with school refusal behavior. Duration of baseline for each of the three groups varied and ran for one, two, or three weeks. Dependent measures included diagnostic status, child and parent-completed reports, and daily child and parent ratings of child anxiety severity. Results indicated that GCBT was efficacious in reducing anxious symptoms in children and adolescents treated in diagnostically heterogeneous groups, and that gains were generally maintained at 6 and 12 month follow-ups. Findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical implications for the efficient treatment of children and adolescents with anxiety disorders. ^

The Fate of Spermatogonial Stem Cells in the Cryptorchid Testes of RXFP2 Deficient Mice

The environmental niche of the spermatogonial stem cell pool is critical to ensure the continued generation of the germ cell population. To study the consequences of an aberrant testicular environment in cryptorchidism we used a mouse model with a deletion of Rxfp2 gene resulting in a high intra-abdominal testicular position. Mutant males were infertile with the gross morphology of the cryptorchid testis progressively deteriorating with age. Few spermatogonia were identifiable in 12 month old cryptorchid testes. Gene expression analysis showed no difference between mutant and control testes at postnatal day 10. In three month old males a decrease in expression of spermatogonial stem cell (SSC) markers Id4, Nanos2, and Ret was shown. The direct counting of ID4+ cells supported a significant decrease of SSCs. In contrast, the expression of Plzf, a marker for undifferentiated and differentiating spermatogonia was not reduced, and the number of PLZF+ cells in the cryptorchid testis was higher in three month old testes, but equal to control in six month old mutants. The PLZF+ cells did not show a higher rate of apoptosis in cryptorchid testis. The expression of the Sertoli cell FGF2 gene required for SSC maintenance was significantly reduced in mutant testis. Based on these findings we propose that the deregulation of somatic and germ cell genes in the cryptorchid testis, directs the SSCs towards the differentiation pathway. This leads to a depletion of the SSC pool and an increase in the number of PLZF+ spermatogonial cells, which too, eventually decreases with the exhaustion of the stem cell pool. Such a dynamic suggests that an early correction of cryptorchidism is critical for the retention of the SSC pool.

Syndemic health disparities and resilience processes related to HIV transmission risk among African American/Black men in south Florida

Rates of HIV infection continue to climb among minority populations and men who have sex with men (MSM), with African American/Black MSM being especially impacted. Numerous studies have found HIV transmission risk to be associated with many health and social disparities resulting from larger environmental and structural forces. Using anthropological and social environment-based theories of resilience that focus on individual agency and larger social and environmental structures, this dissertation employed a mixed methods design to investigate resilience processes among African American/Black MSM.^ Quantitative analyses compared African American/Black (N=108) and Caucasian/White (N=250) MSM who participated in a previously conducted randomized controlled trial (RCT) of sexual and substance use risk reduction interventions. At RCT study entry, using past 90 day recall periods, there were no differences in unprotected sex frequency, however African American/Black MSM reported higher frequencies of days high (P<0.000), and drugs and sex used in combination (P<0.000), and substance dependence (P<0.000) and lower levels of social support (P<0.024) compared to Caucasian/White MSM. At 12- month follow-up, multi-level statistical models found that African American/Black MSM reduced their frequencies of days high and unprotected sex at greater rates than Caucasian/White MSM (P<0.001).^ Qualitative data collected among a sub-sample of African American/Black MSM from the RCT (N=21) described the men's experiences of living with multiple health and social disparities and the importance of RCT study assessments in facilitating reductions in risk behaviors. A cross-case analysis showed different resilience processes undertaken by men who experienced low socioeconomic status, little family support, and homophobia (N=16) compared to those who did not (N=5).^ The dissertation concludes that resilience processes to HIV transmission risk and related health and social disparities among African American/Black MSM varies and are dependent on specific social environmental factors, including social relationships, structural homophobia, and access to social, economic, and cultural capital. Men define for themselves what it means to be resilient within their social environment. These conclusions suggest that both individual and structural-level resilience-based HIV prevention interventions are needed.^

Avaliação comparativa da remodelação óssea periimplantar em implantes com junção cone-morse e hexágono externo: estudo clínico randomizado controlado, duplo cego, boca dividida

Background: Several theories, such as the biological width formation, the inflammatory reactions due to the implant-abutment microgap contamination, and the periimplant stress/strain concentration causing bone microdamage accumulation, have been suggested to explain early periimplant bone loss. However, it is yet not well understood to which extent the implant-abutment connection type may influence the remodeling process around dental implants. Aim: to evaluate clinical, bacteriological, and biomechanical parameters related to periimplant bone loss at the crestal region, comparing external hexagon (EH) and Morse-taper (MT) connections. Materials and methods: Twelve patients with totally edentulous mandibles received four custom made Ø 3.8 x 13 mm implants in the interforaminal region of the mandible, with the same design, but different prosthetic connections (two of them EH or MT, randomly placed based on a split-mouth design), and a immediate implant- supported prosthesis. Clinical parameters (periimplant probing pocket depth, modified gingival index and mucosal thickness) were evaluated at 6 sites around the implants, at a 12 month follow-up. The distance from the top of the implant to the first bone-to-implant contact – IT-FBIC was evaluated on standardized digital peri-apical radiographs acquired at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months follow-up. Samples of the subgingival microbiota were collected 1, 3 and 6 months after implant loading. DNA were extracted and used for the quantification of Tanerella forsythia, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Aggragatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Prevotella intermedia and Fusobacterium nucleatum. Comparison among multiple periods of observation were performed using repeated-measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), followed by a Tukey post-hoc test, while two-period based comparisons were made using paired t- test. Further, 36 computer-tomographic based finite element (FE) models were accomplished, simulating each patient in 3 loading conditions. The results for the peak EQV strain in periimplant bone were interpreted by means of a general linear model (ANOVA). Results: The variation in periimplant bone loss assessed by means of radiographs was significantly different between the connection types (P<0.001). Mean IT-FBIC was 1.17±0.44 mm for EH, and 0.17±0.54 mm for MT, considering all evaluated time periods. All clinical parameters presented not significant differences. No significant microbiological differences could be observed between both connection types. Most of the collected samples had very few pathogens, meaning that these regions were healthy from a microbiological point of view. In FE analysis, a significantly higher peak of EQV strain (P=0.005) was found for EH (mean 3438.65 µ∑) compared to MT (mean 840.98 µ∑) connection. Conclusions: Varying implant-abutment connection type will result in diverse periimplant bone remodeling, regardless of clinical and microbiological conditions. This fact is more likely attributed to the singular loading transmission through different implant-abutment connections to the periimplant bone. The present findings suggest that Morse-taper connection is more efficient to prevent periimplant bone loss, compared to an external hexagon connection.

Self-cutting and prospective repetition of self-harm: studies of emergency department presentations in Ireland

Background Self-harm places an individual at increased risk of future self-harm and suicide, and indicates distress and maladaptive coping. Those who present to hospital with self-cutting form a significant minority of self-harm patients who are at increased risk of prospective repetition of self-harm and suicide compared with those presenting with intentional overdose. In addition to increased risk, there is emerging evidence of demographic, psychological, clinical, and social differences between those presenting with self-cutting and those presenting with overdose. Aim and Key Objectives The aim of the current doctoral work was to examine in detail the association between presenting with self-cutting and risk of prospective repetition. The objectives were: to identify evidence-based risk factors for repetition of self-harm among those presenting to emergency departments with self-harm; to compare demographic and presentation characteristics and prospective repetition across presentations of self-cutting only, self-cutting plus intentional overdose, and intentional overdose only; to compare prospective repetition and other characteristics within self-cutting presentations based on the type of treatment received; to compare self-cutting and intentional overdose patients on psychological risk and protective factors for repetition; and to examine the lived experience of engaging in repeated overdose and self-cutting. Methods The current doctoral work used a mixed-methods approach and is comprised of one systematic review and four empirical studies. The empirical studies were two registry-based prospective studies of Irish hospital presentations of self-harm, one prospective structured interview study, and one qualitative study using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Results The systematic review identified several consistent and emerging risk factors for repetition of self-harm, compared to which self-cutting had a medium-sized effect. The registry studies demonstrated that the involvement of self-cutting, particularly less medically severe selfcutting, confers an increased risk of 1-month and 12-month repetition among Irish index selfharm presentations. The structured psychological study detected higher hopelessness and lower non-reactivity to inner experience among those presenting with self-cutting, and higher depression among those who repeated self-harm. Repeaters had lower baseline levels of protective psychological factors than non-repeaters and continued to have higher depression and hopelessness at follow-up. Finally, the qualitative study indicated that self-harm is a purposeful action taken in response to an overwhelming situation and is evaluated afterwards in terms of personal and social effects. Chosen method of self-harm seemed to be influenced by the desired outcome of the self-harm act, capability, accessibility and previous experience. Conclusion Despite limitations in terms of recruitment rates, the work presented in this thesis is innovative in examining the issue of the association between self-cutting and repetition from multiple perspectives. No one factor can reliably predict all repetition but self-cutting represents one consistent and easily detected risk factor for repetition. Those who present with self-cutting exhibit significant differences on demographic, clinical, and psychological variables compared with those presenting with intentional overdose, and seem to exhibit a more vulnerable profile. However, those who present with self-cutting do not form a discrete or homogenous group, and self-harm methods and levels of suicidal intent are liable to fluctuate over time.

Group problem-solving skills training for self-harm: randomised controlled trial

Background: Rates of self-harm are high and have recently increased. This trend and the repetitive nature of self-harm pose a significant challenge to mental health services. Aims: To determine the efficacy of a structured group problem-solving skills training (PST) programme as an intervention approach for self-harm in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) as offered by mental health services. Method: A total of 433 participants (aged 18-64 years) were randomly assigned to TAU plus PST or TAU alone. Assessments were carried out at baseline and at 6-week and 6-month follow-up and repeated hospital-treated self-harm was ascertained at 12-month follow-up. Results: The treatment groups did not differ in rates of repeated self-harm at 6-week, 6-month and 12-month follow-up. Both treatment groups showed significant improvements in psychological and social functioning at follow-up. Only one measure (needing and receiving practical help from those closest to them) showed a positive treatment effect at 6-week (P = 0.004) and 6-month (P = 0.01) follow-up. Repetition was not associated with waiting time in the PST group. Conclusions: This brief intervention for self-harm is no more effective than treatment as usual. Further work is required to establish whether a modified, more intensive programme delivered sooner after the index episode would be effective.

Global distributions of diazotrophs abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates - Gridded data product (NetCDF) - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. This is a gridded data product about diazotrophic organisms . There are 6 variables. Each variable is gridded on a dimension of 360 (longitude) * 180 (latitude) * 33 (depth) * 12 (month). The first group of 3 variables are: (1) number of biomass observations, (2) biomass, and (3) special nifH-gene-based biomass. The second group of 3 variables is same as the first group except that it only grids non-zero data. We have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling more than 11,000 direct field measurements including 3 sub-databases: (1) nitrogen fixation rates, (2) cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances from cell counts and (3) cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances from qPCR assays targeting nifH genes. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. Data are assigned to 3 groups including Trichodesmium, unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacteria (group A, B and C when applicable) and heterocystous cyanobacteria (Richelia and Calothrix). Total nitrogen fixation rates and diazotrophic biomass are calculated by summing the values from all the groups. Some of nitrogen fixation rates are whole seawater measurements and are used as total nitrogen fixation rates. Both volumetric and depth-integrated values were reported. Depth-integrated values are also calculated for those vertical profiles with values at 3 or more depths.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.