Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.

Comparações entre os valores genéticos para características de crescimento de bovinos da raça Nelore preditos com modelos de dimensão finita ou infinita

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Geochemical characterization of heavy metal contaminated area using multivariate factorial kriging

This paper describes a geostatistical method, known as factorial kriging analysis, which is well suited for analyzing multivariate spatial information. The method involves multivariate variogram modeling, principal component analysis, and cokriging. It uses several separate correlation structures, each corresponding to a specific spatial scale, and yields a set of regionalized factors summarizing the main features of the data for each spatial scale. This method is applied to an area of high manganese-ore mining activity in Amapa State, North Brazil. Two scales of spatial variation (0.33 and 2.0 km) are identified and interpreted. The results indicate that, for the short-range structure, manganese, arsenic, iron, and cadmium are associated with human activities due to the mining work, while for the long-range structure, the high aluminum, selenium, copper, and lead concentrations, seem to be related to the natural environment. At each scale, the correlation structure is analyzed, and regionalized factors are estimated by cokriging and then mapped.

Um novo sistema de refrigeração com controle de temperatura, compressor aberto, máquina de indução trifásica com velocidade variável e correção ativa do fator de potência do estágio de entrada

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dinâmica de correlações no mercado financeiro Bovespa&BMF

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A política salarial para os professores da educação básica da rede municipal no contexto do FUNDEB nos municípios de Óbidos e Oriximiná-Pará

A dissertação trata sobre a política salarial dos professores municipalizados do município de Tucuruí do Estado do Pará. Objetiva avaliar a política salarial dos professores no contexto da municipalização do ensino e tenta contribuir com a avaliação da política educacional no Pará, no período entre 1997 a 2008. Procuramos analisar dinamicamente, a política salarial face ao caráter da política educacional do programa de "descentralização", desenvolvido nas reformas do Estado brasileiro, executado pelo Ministério da Educação, desde o governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Assim, a investigação atentou para modelos de políticas de financiamento de orientação nacional concentrada no MEC. O estudo aponta contradições na relação do projeto nacional de municipalização com a gestão local em que a política salarial dos professores sofre perdas na remuneração. A questão norteadora do estudo acontece frente à instigação da existência de alterações nos salários dos professores a partir do momento que foram cedidos da rede estadual para o município de Tucuruí, local da pesquisa. A partir deste local, analisamos documentos, fatos cotidianos da escola; realizamos entrevistas com os sujeitos da pesquisa como os professores, técnicos, secretário de educação e sindicalistas do SINTEPP. Então, o estudo indicou que a política salarial dos professores sofreu alterações; progressiva extinção destes da folha ativa de pagamento da SEDUC e marcas de ilegalidade frente ao ato de cedência ao município que nos fizeram observar um modo imposto na condução da política municipalista no Pará. No contexto desta política avaliamos haver ajustes ideológicos de cunho conservador e neoliberal concretizados nos acordos entre o governo do Estado e a prefeitura.

Indicador multivariado policórico: proposta de indicador para o diagnóstico da aprendizagem organizacional

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Biologia e ciclo de vida de Astyanax cf. scabripinnis paranae Eigenmann, 1914 (Characidae, Tetragonopterinae), no Ribeirão Grande, Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, núcleo Santa Virginia, SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos em linhagens avançadas de soja

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV

Anomalous centrality evolution of two-particle angular correlations from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN)=62 and 200 GeV

We present two-dimensional (2D) two-particle angular correlations measured with the STAR detector on relative pseudorapidity eta and azimuth phi for charged particles from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62 and 200 GeV with transverse momentum p(t) >= 0.15 GeV/c, vertical bar eta vertical bar <= 1, and 2 pi in azimuth. Observed correlations include a same-side (relative azimuth <pi/2) 2D peak, a closely related away-side azimuth dipole, and an azimuth quadrupole conventionally associated with elliptic flow. The same-side 2D peak and away-side dipole are explained by semihard parton scattering and fragmentation (minijets) in proton-proton and peripheral nucleus-nucleus collisions. Those structures follow N-N binary-collision scaling in Au-Au collisions until midcentrality, where a transition to a qualitatively different centrality trend occurs within one 10% centrality bin. Above the transition point the number of same-side and away-side correlated pairs increases rapidly relative to binary-collision scaling, the eta width of the same-side 2D peak also increases rapidly (eta elongation), and the phi width actually decreases significantly. Those centrality trends are in marked contrast with conventional expectations for jet quenching in a dense medium. The observed centrality trends are compared to perturbative QCD predictions computed in HIJING, which serve as a theoretical baseline, and to the expected trends for semihard parton scattering and fragmentation in a thermalized opaque medium predicted by theoretical calculations and phenomenological models. We are unable to reconcile a semihard parton scattering and fragmentation origin for the observed correlation structure and centrality trends with heavy-ion collision scenarios that invoke rapid parton thermalization. If the collision system turns out to be effectively opaque to few-GeV partons the present observations would be inconsistent with the minijet picture discussed here. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevC.86.064902

Multidimensional item response theory models with general and specific latent traits for ordinal data

The aim of the thesis is to propose a Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo of multidimensional item response theory models for graded responses with complex structures and correlated traits. In particular, this work focuses on the multiunidimensional and the additive underlying latent structures, considering that the first one is widely used and represents a classical approach in multidimensional item response analysis, while the second one is able to reflect the complexity of real interactions between items and respondents. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery for the proposed models under different conditions (sample size, test and subtest length, number of response categories, and correlation structure). The results show that the parameter recovery is particularly sensitive to the sample size, due to the model complexity and the high number of parameters to be estimated. For a sufficiently large sample size the parameters of the multiunidimensional and additive graded response models are well reproduced. The results are also affected by the trade-off between the number of items constituting the test and the number of item categories. An application of the proposed models on response data collected to investigate Romagna and San Marino residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the tourism industry is also presented.

Outcome of smoking cessation counselling of HIV-positive persons by HIV care physicians

OBJECTIVES: Smoking is the most prevalent modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases among HIV-positive persons. We assessed the effect on smoking cessation of training HIV care physicians in counselling. METHODS: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) is a multicentre prospective observational database. Our single-centre intervention at the Zurich centre included a half day of standardized training for physicians in counselling and in the pharmacotherapy of smokers, and a physicians' checklist for semi-annual documentation of their counselling. Smoking status was then compared between participants at the Zurich centre and other institutions. We used marginal logistic regression models with exchangeable correlation structure and robust standard errors to estimate the odds of smoking cessation and relapse. RESULTS: Between April 2000 and December 2010, 11 056 SHCS participants had 121 238 semi-annual visits and 64 118 person-years of follow-up. The prevalence of smoking decreased from 60 to 43%. During the intervention at the Zurich centre from November 2007 to December 2009, 1689 participants in this centre had 6068 cohort visits. These participants were more likely to stop smoking [odds ratio (OR) 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.42; P = 0.004] and had fewer relapses (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.61-0.92; P = 0.007) than participants at other SHCS institutions. The effect of the intervention was stronger than the calendar time effect (OR 1.19 vs. 1.04 per year, respectively). Middle-aged participants, injecting drug users, and participants with psychiatric problems or with higher alcohol consumption were less likely to stop smoking, whereas persons with a prior cardiovascular event were more likely to stop smoking. CONCLUSIONS: An institution-wide training programme for HIV care physicians in smoking cessation counselling led to increased smoking cessation and fewer relapses.

Statistical analysis of multichannel scalp field data

High density spatial and temporal sampling of EEG data enhances the quality of results of electrophysiological experiments. Because EEG sources typically produce widespread electric fields (see Chapter 3) and operate at frequencies well below the sampling rate, increasing the number of electrodes and time samples will not necessarily increase the number of observed processes, but mainly increase the accuracy of the representation of these processes. This is namely the case when inverse solutions are computed. As a consequence, increasing the sampling in space and time increases the redundancy of the data (in space, because electrodes are correlated due to volume conduction, and time, because neighboring time points are correlated), while the degrees of freedom of the data change only little. This has to be taken into account when statistical inferences are to be made from the data. However, in many ERP studies, the intrinsic correlation structure of the data has been disregarded. Often, some electrodes or groups of electrodes are a priori selected as the analysis entity and considered as repeated (within subject) measures that are analyzed using standard univariate statistics. The increased spatial resolution obtained with more electrodes is thus poorly represented by the resulting statistics. In addition, the assumptions made (e.g. in terms of what constitutes a repeated measure) are not supported by what we know about the properties of EEG data. From the point of view of physics (see Chapter 3), the natural “atomic” analysis entity of EEG and ERP data is the scalp electric field

High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.

Combined effects of heterogeneity, anisotropy, and saturation on steady state flow and transport: A laboratory sand tank experiment

Field soils show rather different spreading behavior at different water saturations, frequently caused by layering of the soil material. We performed tracer experiments in a laboratory sand tank. Such experiments complement and help comprehension of field investigations. We estimated, by image analysis, the first two moments of small plumes traveling through a two-dimensional, heterogeneous medium with strongly anisotropic correlation structure. Three steady state regimes were analyzed. Two main conclusions were drawn. First, low saturation led to very large heterogeneity and to strong preferential flow. Thus the description of the flow paths and the prediction of the solute arrival times require, in this case, more accurate knowledge about the topological structure. Second, saturation-dependent macroscopic anisotropy is an essential element of transport in unsaturated media. For this reason, small structural soil features should be properly upscaled to give appropriate effective soil parameters to be input in transport models.