Contributions to Physics-Based Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Seeing light vs dark lines: psychophysical performance is based on separate channels, limited by noise and uncertainty

Visual detection performance (d') is usually an accelerating function of stimulus contrast, which could imply a smooth, threshold-like nonlinearity in the sensory response. Alternatively, Pelli (1985 Journal of the Optical Society of America A 2 1508 - 1532) developed the 'uncertainty model' in which responses were linear with contrast, but the observer was uncertain about which of many noisy channels contained the signal. Such internal uncertainty effectively adds noise to weak signals, and predicts the nonlinear psychometric function. We re-examined these ideas by plotting psychometric functions (as z-scores) for two observers (SAW, PRM) with high precision. The task was to detect a single, vertical, blurred line at the fixation point, or identify its polarity (light vs dark). Detection of a known polarity was nearly linear for SAW but very nonlinear for PRM. Randomly interleaving light and dark trials reduced performance and rendered it non-linear for SAW, but had little effect for PRM. This occurred for both single-interval and 2AFC procedures. The whole pattern of results was well predicted by our Monte Carlo simulation of Pelli's model, with only two free parameters. SAW (highly practised) had very low uncertainty. PRM (with little prior practice) had much greater uncertainty, resulting in lower contrast sensitivity, nonlinear performance, and no effect of external (polarity) uncertainty. For SAW, identification was about v2 better than detection, implying statistically independent channels for stimuli of opposite polarity, rather than an opponent (light - dark) channel. These findings strongly suggest that noise and uncertainty, rather than sensory nonlinearity, limit visual detection.

‘‘Model age-based” and ‘‘copy when uncertain” biases in children’s social learning of a novel task

Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N = 140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children’s continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of mode

Task profiling : A task-Based approach to measuring the integration of ICT in the classroom

The measurement of ICT (information and communication technology) integration is emerging as an area of research interest with such systems as Education Queensland including it in their recently released list of research priorities. Studies to trial differing integration measurement instruments have taken place within Australia in the last few years, particularly Western Australia (Trinidad, Clarkson, & Newhouse, 2004; Trinidad, Newhouse & Clarkson, 2005), Tasmania (Fitzallen 2005) and Queensland (Finger, Proctor, & Watson, 2005). This paper will add to these investigations by describing an alternate and original methodological approach which was trialled in a small-scale pilot study conducted jointly by Queensland Catholic Education Commission (QCEC) and the Centre of Learning Innovation, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in late 2005. The methodology described is based on tasks which, through a process of profiling, can be seen to be artefacts which embody the internal and external factors enabling and constraining ICT integration.

Asset specificity and behavioural uncertainty as moderators of the sales growth : employment growth relationship in emerging ventures

Sales growth and employment growth are the two most widely used growth indicators for new ventures; yet, sales growth and employment growth are not interchangeable measures of new venture growth. Rather, they are related, but somewhat independent constructs that respond differently to a variety of criteria. Most of the literature treats this as a methodological technicality. However, sales growth with or without accompanying employment growth has very different implications for managers and policy makers. A better understanding of what drives these different growth metrics has the potential to lead to better decision making. To improve that understanding we apply transaction cost economics reasoning to predict when sales growth will be or will not be accompanied by employment growth. Our results indicate that our predictions are borne out consistently in resource-constrained contexts but not in resource-munificent contexts.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Attention and memory bias for body image and health related information using an Emotional Stroop task in a non-clinical sample

It has been proposed that body image disturbance is a form of cognitive bias wherein schemas for self-relevant information guide the selective processing of appearancerelated information in the environment. This threatening information receives disproportionately more attention and memory, as measured by an Emotional Stroop and incidental recall task. The aim of this thesis was to expand the literature on cognitive processing biases in non-clinical males and females by incorporating a number of significant methodological refinements. To achieve this aim, three phases of research were conducted. The initial two phases of research provided preliminary data to inform the development of the main study. Phase One was a qualitative exploration of body image concerns amongst males and females recruited through the general community and from a university. Seventeen participants (eight male; nine female) provided information on their body image and what factors they saw as positively and negatively impacting on their self evaluations. The importance of self esteem, mood, health and fitness, and recognition of the social ideal were identified as key themes. These themes were incorporated as psycho-social measures and Stroop word stimuli in subsequent phases of the research. Phase Two involved the selection and testing of stimuli to be used in the Emotional Stroop task. Six experimental categories of words were developed that reflected a broad range of health and body image concerns for males and females. These categories were high and low calorie food words, positive and negative appearance words, negative emotion words, and physical activity words. Phase Three addressed the central aim of the project by examining cognitive biases for body image information in empirically defined sub-groups. A National sample of males (N = 55) and females (N = 144), recruited from the general community and universities, completed an Emotional Stroop task, incidental memory test, and a collection of psycho-social questionnaires. Sub-groups of body image disturbance were sought using a cluster analysis, which identified three sub-groups in males (Normal, Dissatisfied, and Athletic) and four sub-groups in females (Normal, Health Conscious, Dissatisfied, and Symptomatic). No differences were noted between the groups in selective attention, although time taken to colour name the words was associated with some of the psycho-social variables. Memory biases found across the whole sample for negative emotion, low calorie food, and negative appearance words were interpreted as reflecting the current focus on health and stigma against being unattractive. Collectively these results have expanded our understanding of processing biases in the general community by demonstrating that the processing biases are found within non-clinical samples and that not all processing biases are associated with negative functionality

Final report : task 2 : design guidelines for delivering high quality indoor environments

This report is for one of the four Tasks of the CRC project ‘Regenerating Construction to Enhance Sustainability’. The report specifically addresses Task 2 ‘Design guidelines for delivering high quality indoor environments’.

Final report : task 3: occupant health, wellbeing and productivity

This report presents the results of a study on indoor environment quality (IEQ) and occupant productivity in two buildings that are owned and Occupied by City of Melbourne, and located next to each other in Central Melbourne, Council House 1 (CH1) and Council House 2 (CH2). The impact of a range of relevant IEQ and other parameters on health, wellbeing and productivity of occupants is assessed. The before-and-after case study has demonstrated that the productivity of office building occupants can potentially be enhanced through good building design, and provision of a high quality, healthy, comfortable and functional interior environment, that takes account of basic occupant needs. It has shown that good indoor environment quality is a necessary pre-requisite for enhanced productivity in office buildings, but that broader aspects of overall building and interior design are also important.

Final report : task 4 : waste minimisation in construction

The Regenerating Construction Project for the CRC for Construction Innovation aims to assist in the delivery of demonstrably superior ‘green’ buildings. Components of the project address eco-efficient redesign, achieving a smaller ecological footprint, enhancing indoor environment and minimising waste in design and construction. The refurbishment of Council House 1 for Melbourne City Council provides an opportunity to develop and demonstrate tools that will be of use for commercial building refurbishment generally. It is hoped that the refurbishment will act as an exemplar project to demonstrate environmentally friendly possibilities for office building refurbishment.

Procurement selection in the public sector : a tale of two states.

The decision as to which procurement system to adopt is a complex and challenging task for clients of construction projects. Despite a plethora of tools and techniques available for selecting a procurement method, clients are still uncertain about what method to adopt for a given construction project to achieve success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ procurement methods are selected by public sector clients in Queensland (QLD) and Western Australia (WA). Findings from workshops with senior managers in procurement selection revealed that traditional lump sum methods (TLS) are preferred even though alternative forms could be better suited for a given project. Participants of the workshops agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered for projects but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance meant the selection of TLS methods. It was perceived that only a limited number of contractors operating in the marketplace have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the non-traditional methods.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Visualisation of Information Uncertainty : Progress and Challenges

Information uncertainty which is inherent in many real world applications brings more complexity to the visualisation problem. Despite the increasing number of research papers found in the literature, much more work is needed. The aims of this chapter are threefold: (1) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the requirements of visualisation of information uncertainty and their dimensions of complexity; (2) to review and assess current progress; and (3) to discuss remaining research challenges. We focus on four areas: information uncertainty modelling, visualisation techniques, management of information uncertainty modelling, propagation and visualisation, and the uptake of uncertainty visualisation in application domains.