An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distinction between familial and sporadic forms of colorectal cancer showing DNA microsatellite instability

Attempts to classify colorectal cancer into subtypes based upon molecular characterisation are overshadowed by the classical stepwise model in which the adenoma-carcinoma sequence serves as the morphological counterpart. Clarity is achieved when cancers showing DNA microsatellite instability (MSI) are distinguished as sporadic MSI-low (MSI-L), sporadic MSI-high (MSI-H) and hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Divergence of the 'methylator' pathway into MSI-L and MSI-H is at least partly determined by the respective silencing of MGMT and hMLH1. Multiple differences can be demonstrated between sporadic and familial (HNPCC) MSI-H colorectal cancer with respect to early mechanisms, evolution, molecular characterisation, demographics and morphology. By acknowledging the existence of multiple pathways, rapid advances in the fields of basic and translational research will occur and this will lead to improved strategies for the prevention, early detection and treatment of colorectal cancer. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of model laws as a starting point for the development of an enforceable international consumer protection regime

This article is concerned primarily with an examination and comparison of select aspects of the model international consumer protection laws proposed by the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Australia) as a basis for examination and comparison. As a secondary consideration, it also broadly examines the content of, and differences between, the model laws. The motive for this article is that any future enforceable international consumer protection regime (possibly in the form of an international treaty or convention) would need to take into account the UN, EU and OECD guidelines. A cross-comparison of those model laws, and a comparison of them with the consumer protection provisions of a well established national consumer protection law, should provide a useful starting point for the development of such a regime. The 'select aspects' of the model laws in question are the various provisions of those laws which could relate to situations involving the wrong delivery or non-delivery of goods.

Displaying the future: Techno-nationalism and the rise of the consumer in postwar Japan

This paper explains how, in the aftermath of World War II, a type of techno-nationalism emerged that linked being Japanese to science and technology and the increased consumption of electrical appliances. By closely examining official exhibitions, we can see how the state and private sector strongly encouraged this techno-scientific dreaming. Dazzling displays highlighted how the peaceful atom would help lead the nation to achieve high economic growth. At the same time, through the judicious purchase of labor saving appliances, consumers could reconcile the need to spend with the need to save.

Educação em consumo, na linguagem dos quadrinhos : uma análise crítica da revista Turma da Mônica Jovem

Criada em agosto de 2008, a revista em quadrinhos “Turma da Mônica Jovem”, ou TMJ, como é conhecida por seus leitores, tem estilo mangá e traz os mesmos personagens moradores do bairro Limoeiro, agora, adolescentes e com características bem distintas da turma tradicional. A presente pesquisa procurou desenvolver uma análise crítica de TMJ, dentro dos pressupostos teóricos e metodológicos da semiótica discursiva, buscando responder as questões: como a problemática do consumo é apropriada pela revista? Que estratégias enunciativas são utilizadas para inscrever o público infantojuvenil em seu discurso? A revisão de literatura faz uma triangulação dos conceitos norteadores do estudo: Quadrinhos, Consumo Infantil e Semiótica, trazendo, no centro do triângulo, a Educação, área de conhecimento principal da pesquisa e conectora dos três outros campos. Realizamos uma análise semiótica de um corpus composto por sete edições de TMJ que trouxeram como tema principal problemática relacionada à sociedade de consumo contemporânea, a partir de um universo de revistas publicadas, no período de 2012 a 2014. Dentre as categorias de consumo pré-estabelecidas ou que emergiram do discurso de TMJ, contemplamos: o consumo consciente, o consumo conspícuo, o consumo moralista e o consumo de cultura midiática. Por meio da técnica do grupo focal, desenvolvemos uma conversa com os leitores de TMJ, buscando entender como se dá a apreensão da problemática do consumo por eles, bem como que impactos essa apreensão tem para uma maior atratividade da publicação, dentre outros objetivos específicos investigados, nesse encontro. Durante a realização de três grupos, intitulados Leitores Iniciantes, Leitores Assíduos e Leitores Esporádicos, os agrupamos em duas categorias relacionadas ao campo do consumo e, também, da semiótica. O grupo do Pertencimento conhece e interage com a revista, em profundidade, promovendo um ajuste de sensibilidade entre o enunciatário (leitor) e o enunciador (revista), com características do “parecer ser e ser”. O grupo da Emulação deseja pertencer ao grupo dos leitores assíduos, mas como não possui as características para tal, as busca por meio da imitação, dentro de um regime do “parecer ser, mas não ser”. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam que o consumo está muito presente em TMJ, tendo aparecido como temática principal, em mais da metade das revistas analisadas. Ainda, ele pode ser considerado como tema central das histórias da turma, principalmente, no momento em que a revista utiliza sua plasticidade, na figurativização dos personagens e ambientes das histórias, para difundir um mundo de consumo a essas crianças e adolescentes leitores. Embora as revistas que se enquadraram nas categorias de consumo consciente e consumo moralista busquem passar alguns conselhos e ensinamentos para seus leitores, são as categorias de consumo conspícuo e consumo de cultura midiática, tratadas de forma pouco crítica e, por vezes, irresponsável que possuem maior grau de apreensão por parte do leitor, conferindo atratividade à revista. Entre outras conclusões, podemos afirmar que o discurso de TMJ se utiliza de narrativas simples (lineares e pouco complexas), bem como de uma figuratividade e de temáticas repetitivas, oferecendo a seus leitores pouco debate e reflexão, sendo um discurso da reprodução, sem aprofundamento, do dia-a-dia dessas crianças e adolescentes que, apesar de falar delas e para elas, não inclui muitas temáticas relevantes ao seu universo.

Profiling consumer behaviour in cross-border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Consumer behavior and profile in cross border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Consumer Culture Theory (CCT) já é uma escola de pensamento em marketing?

A década de 1980 trouxe uma visão alternativa à corrente positivista predominante no campo de pesquisa do consumidor: a Consumer Culture Theory (CCT), que assume uma orientação epistemológica baseada no interpretativismo e na pesquisa qualitativa. Diante do destaque alcançado pela CCT, levantou-se a seguinte questão: a CCT já pode ser considerada uma escola de pensamento em marketing autônoma? Pautados em três critérios fundamentais para a qualificação de uma escola de pensamento (reconhecimento acadêmico, corpo de conhecimento e contribuições), foi realizada uma desk research, baseada em periódicos e artigos da área e na construção de um corpus de pesquisa construído com base nas referências contidas no texto seminal Consumer Culture Theory (CCT): twenty years of research. A conclusão é de que a CCT atende aos critérios adotados na presente pesquisa, podendo ser considerada uma escola de pensamento a utônoma dentro do campo de pesquisa do consumo.