Asset-backed securities: The key to unlocking Europe's credit markets? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2014/07, 24 July 2014

The European market for asset-backed securities (ABS) has all but closed for business since the start of the economic and financial crisis. ABS (see Box 1) were in fact the first financial assets hit at the onset of the crisis in 2008. The subprime mortgage meltdown caused a deterioration in the quality of collateral in the ABS market in the United States, which in turn dried up overall liquidity because ABS AAA notes were popular collateral for inter-bank lending. The lack of demand for these products, together with the Great Recession in 2009, had a considerable negative impact on the European ABS market. The post-crisis regulatory environment has further undermined the market. The practice of slicing and dicing of loans into ABS packages was blamed for starting and spreading the crisis through the global financial system. Regulation in the post-crisis context has thus been relatively unfavourable to these types of instruments, with heightened capital requirements now necessary for the issuance of new ABS products. And yet policymakers have recently underlined the need to revitalise the ABS market as a tool to improve credit market conditions in the euro area and to enhance transmission of monetary policy. In particular, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have jointly emphasised that: “a market for prudently designed ABS has the potential to improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy and to allow for better risk sharing... by transforming relatively illiquid assets into more liquid securities. These can then be sold to investors thereby allowing originators to obtain funding and, potentially, transfer part of the underlying risk, while investors in such securities can diversify their portfolios... . This can lead to lower costs of capital, higher economic growth and a broader distribution of risk” (ECB and Bank of England, 2014a). In addition, consideration has started to be given to the extent to which ABS products could become the target of explicit monetary policy operations, a line of action proposed by Claeys et al (2014). The ECB has officially announced the start of preparatory work related to possible outright purchases of selected ABS1. In this paper we discuss how a revamped market for corporate loans securitised via ABS products, and how use of ABS as a monetary policy instrument, can indeed play a role in revitalising Europe’s credit market. However, before using this instrument a number of issues should be addressed: First, the European ABS market has significantly contracted since the crisis. Hence it needs to be revamped through appropriate regulation if securitisation is to play a role in improving the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy. Second, even assuming that this market can expand again, the European ABS market is heterogeneous: lending criteria are different in different countries and banking institutions and the rating methodologies to assess the quality of the borrowers have to take these differences into account. One further element of differentiation is default law, which is specific to national jurisdictions in the euro area. Therefore, the pool of loans will not only be different in terms of the macro risks related to each country of origination (which is a ‘positive’ idiosyncratic risk, because it enables a portfolio manager to differentiate), but also in terms of the normative side, in case of default. The latter introduces uncertainties and inefficiencies in the ABS market that could create arbitrage opportunities. It is also unclear to what extent a direct purchase of these securities by the ECB might have an impact on the credit market. This will depend on, for example, the type of securities targeted in terms of the underlying assets that would be considered as eligible for inclusion (such as loans to small and medium-sized companies, car loans, leases, residential and commercial mortgages). The timing of a possible move by the ECB is also an issue; immediate action would take place in the context of relatively limited market volumes, while if the ECB waits, it might have access to a larger market, provided steps are taken in the next few months to revamp the market. We start by discussing the first of these issues – the size of the EU ABS market. We estimate how much this market could be worth if some specific measures are implemented. We then discuss the different options available to the ECB should they decide to intervene in the EU ABS market. We include a preliminary list of regulatory steps that could be taken to homogenise asset-backed securities in the euro area. We conclude with our recommended course of action.

Evaluating the impact of securities regulation on venture capital markets /

"Planning Office, National Bureau of Standards."

Stock markets : information vendors need SEC oversight to control automation risks : report to the Chairman, Securities and Exhange Commission /

"B-246404"--P. 1.

Federal housing enterprises : HUD's mission oversight needs to be strengthened : report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Securities, and Government Sponsored Enterprises, Committee on Banking and Financial Services, House of Representatives /

"B-278383"--P. 1.

Estimation of global systematic risk for securities listed in multiple markets

The market model is the most frequently estimated model in financial economics and has proven extremely useful in the estimation of systematic risk. In this era of rapid globalization of financial markets there has been a substantial increase in cross listings of stocks in foreign and regional capital markets. As many as a third to a half of the stocks in some major exchanges are foreign listed. The multiple listings of stocks has major implications for the estimation of systematic risk. The traditiona1 method of estimating the market model by using data from only one market will lead to misleading estimates of beta. This study demonstrates that the estimator for systematic risk and the methodology itself changes when stocks are listed in multiple markets. General expressions are developed to obtain the estimator of global beta under a variety of assumptions about the error terms of the market models for different capital markets. The assumptions pertain both to the volatilities of the abnormal returns in each market, and to the relationship between the markets. ^ Explicit expressions are derived for the estimation of global systematic risk beta when the returns are homoscedastic and also under different heteroscedastic conditions both within and/or between markets. These results for the estimation of global beta are further extended when return generating process follows an autoregressive scheme.^

Dislodgement of commercial property public debt markets : the case of U.S. and Australia

The paper investigates if there are any discernible trends in the U.S. and Australian commercial property public debt markets with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Commercial mortgage-backed securities and unsecured bonds issued by real estate investment trusts for the period 2000 to Q3:2009 are reviewed. It is shown that events in the equity markets have an impact on the pricing of these two instruments. Furthermore, the impact of subdued activity in these financing instruments on the commercial property market is discussed.

Does fundamental indexation lead to better risk-adjusted returns? New evidence from Australian Securities Exchange

We investigate the claims of superiority of fundamental indexation strategy over capitalisation-weighted indexation by using data for Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listed stocks. Whilst our results are in line with the outperformance observed in other geographical markets, we find that the excess returns from fundamental indexation in Australian market are much higher. On a rolling 5-year basis, the fundamental index always outperforms the capitalisation-weighted index. Our results suggest that superior performance of fundamental indexation could not be entirely attributed to value, size, or momentum effects. The outperformance persists even after adjusting for slightly higher transaction costs related to turnover.

Mathematical Aspects of Financial Markets with Frictions

Frictions are factors that hinder trading of securities in financial markets. Typical frictions include limited market depth, transaction costs, lack of infinite divisibility of securities, and taxes. Conventional models used in mathematical finance often gloss over these issues, which affect almost all financial markets, by arguing that the impact of frictions is negligible and, consequently, the frictionless models are valid approximations. This dissertation consists of three research papers, which are related to the study of the validity of such approximations in two distinct modeling problems. Models of price dynamics that are based on diffusion processes, i.e., continuous strong Markov processes, are widely used in the frictionless scenario. The first paper establishes that diffusion models can indeed be understood as approximations of price dynamics in markets with frictions. This is achieved by introducing an agent-based model of a financial market where finitely many agents trade a financial security, the price of which evolves according to price impacts generated by trades. It is shown that, if the number of agents is large, then under certain assumptions the price process of security, which is a pure-jump process, can be approximated by a one-dimensional diffusion process. In a slightly extended model, in which agents may exhibit herd behavior, the approximating diffusion model turns out to be a stochastic volatility model. Finally, it is shown that when agents' tendency to herd is strong, logarithmic returns in the approximating stochastic volatility model are heavy-tailed. The remaining papers are related to no-arbitrage criteria and superhedging in continuous-time option pricing models under small-transaction-cost asymptotics. Guasoni, Rásonyi, and Schachermayer have recently shown that, in such a setting, any financial security admits no arbitrage opportunities and there exist no feasible superhedging strategies for European call and put options written on it, as long as its price process is continuous and has the so-called conditional full support (CFS) property. Motivated by this result, CFS is established for certain stochastic integrals and a subclass of Brownian semistationary processes in the two papers. As a consequence, a wide range of possibly non-Markovian local and stochastic volatility models have the CFS property.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

Policy impacts on Vietnam stock markets: a case of anomalies and disequilibria 2000-2006

Vietnam launched its first-ever stock market, named as Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center (HSTC) on July 20, 2000. This is one of pioneering works on HSTC, which finds empirical evidences for the following: Anomalies of the HSTC stock returns through clusters of limit-hits, limit-hit sequences; Strong herd effect toward extreme positive returns of the market portfolio;The specification of ARMA-GARCH helps capture fairly well issues such as serial correlations and fat-tailed for the stabilized period. By using further information and policy dummy variables, it is justifiable that policy decisions on technicalities of trading can have influential impacts on the move of risk level, through conditional variance behaviors of HSTC stock returns. Policies on trading and disclosure practices have had profound impacts on Vietnam Stock Market (VSM). The over-using of policy tools can harm the market and investing mentality. Price limits become increasingly irrelevant and prevent the market from self-adjusting to equilibrium. These results on VSM have not been reported before in the literature on Vietnam’s financial markets. Given the policy implications, we suggest that the Vietnamese authorities re-think the use of price limit and give more freedom to market participants.

Back from beyond bid-ask spread: estimating liquidity in international markets

Research on the topic of liquidity has greatly benefited from the improved availability of data. Researchers have addressed questions regarding the factors that influence bid-ask spreads and the relationship between spreads and risk, return and liquidity. Intra-day data have been used to measure the effective spread and researchers have been able to refine the concepts of liquidity to include the price impact of transactions on a trade-by-trade analysis. The growth in the creation of tax-transparent securities has greatly enhanced the visibility of securitized real estate, and has naturally led to the question of whether the increased visibility of real estate has caused market liquidity to change. Although the growth in the public market for securitized real estate has occurred in international markets, it has not been accompanied by universal publication of transaction data. Therefore this paper develops an aggregate daily data-based test for liquidity and applies the test to US data in order to check for consistency with the results of prior intra-day analysis. If the two approaches produce similar results, we can apply the same technique to markets in which less detailed data are available and offer conclusions on the liquidity of a wider set of markets.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets : evidence of margin policy spillover effects

Volatility spillover is well documented among closely related securities. I investigate the relationship between margin policy and trading dynamics of the Nikkei 225 index futures markets of Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and Singapore Exchange (SGX). I find that OSE’s margin policy influences trading dynamics across both markets, although it is the less liquid SGX market that performs price discovery. This suggests that policy markers of close substitute markets should coordinate, or at least communicate policy intentions due to policy spillover. SGX’s market design facilitates price discovery, suggesting that a microstructure framework capable of overcoming the liquidity entry barrier is of interest to any futures exchange contemplating contract proliferation.

Legislative Proposals to Modernize Business Development Companies and Expand Investment Opportunities, Testimony Before the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises

This testimony discusses proposed legislation to amend the definition of accredited investor. It also discusses proposed legislation designed to reform the regulatory framework for business development companies. Among other things, the regulatory regime for BDCs would change to allow these companies to invest a greater portion of their assets in financial companies, potentially reducing the percentage of assets invested in operating companies.

Defining Europe's Capital Markets Union. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2014/12, 13 November 2014

The new European Commission has signalled that it will work to create a ‘capital markets union’. This is understood as an agenda to expand the non-bank part of Europe’s financial system, which is currently underdeveloped. The aim in the short term is to unlock credit provision as banks are deleveraging, and in the longer term, to favour a more diverse, competitive and resilient financial system. Direct regulation of individual non-bank market segments (such as securitisation, private placements or private equity) might be useful at the margin, but will not per se lead to significant capital markets development or the rebalancing of Europe’s financial system away from the current dominance by banks. To reach these goals, the capital markets union agenda must be broadened to address the framework conditions for the development of individual market segments. Six possible areas for policy initiative are, in increasing order of potential impact and political difficulty: regulation of securities and specific forms of intermediation; prudential regulation, especially of insurance companies and pension funds; regulation of accounting, auditing and financial transparency requirements that apply to companies that seek external finance; a supervisory framework for financial infrastructure firms, such as central counterparties, that supports market integration; partial harmonisation and improvement of insolvency and corporate restructuring frameworks;and partial harmonisation or convergence of tax policies that specifically affect financial investment.