Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Robust statistical modeling of portfolios

Atypical points in the data may result in meaningless e±cient frontiers. This follows since portfolios constructed using classical estimates may re°ect neither the usual nor the unusual days patterns. On the other hand, portfolios constructed using robust approaches are able to capture just the dynamics of the usual days, which constitute the majority of the business days. In this paper we propose an statistical model and a robust estimation procedure to obtain an e±cient frontier which would take into account the behavior of both the usual and most of the atypical days. We show, using real data and simulations, that portfolios constructed in this way require less frequent rebalancing, and may yield higher expected returns for any risk level.

A neural system to robust Nonlinear optimization subject to disjoint and constrained sets

The ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system identification. This paper describes a novel method using artificial neural networks to solve robust parameter estimation problems for nonlinear models with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach.

Semiparametric Estimation of Models for Natural Direct and Indirect Effects

In recent years, researchers in the health and social sciences have become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of an exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Natural direct and indirect effects are of particular interest as they generally combine to produce the total effect of the exposure and therefore provide insight on the mechanism by which it operates to produce the outcome. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed to make inferences about marginal mean natural direct and indirect effects in observational studies (Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser, 2011), which delivers multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal direct and indirect effects, and thus generalizes previous results for total effects to the mediation setting. In this paper we extend the new theory to handle a setting in which a parametric model for the natural direct (indirect) effect within levels of pre-exposure variables is specified and the model for the observed data likelihood is otherwise unrestricted. We show that estimation is generally not feasible in this model because of the curse of dimensionality associated with the required estimation of auxiliary conditional densities or expectations, given high-dimensional covariates. We thus consider multiply robust estimation and propose a more general model which assumes a subset but not all of several working models holds.

Road environment modeling using robust perspective analysis and recursive Bayesian segmentation

Recently, vision-based advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) have received a new increased interest to enhance driving safety. In particular, due to its high performance–cost ratio, mono-camera systems are arising as the main focus of this field of work. In this paper we present a novel on-board road modeling and vehicle detection system, which is a part of the result of the European I-WAY project. The system relies on a robust estimation of the perspective of the scene, which adapts to the dynamics of the vehicle and generates a stabilized rectified image of the road plane. This rectified plane is used by a recursive Bayesian classi- fier, which classifies pixels as belonging to different classes corresponding to the elements of interest of the scenario. This stage works as an intermediate layer that isolates subsequent modules since it absorbs the inherent variability of the scene. The system has been tested on-road, in different scenarios, including varied illumination and adverse weather conditions, and the results have been proved to be remarkable even for such complex scenarios.

Omnidirectional visual odometry for a planetary rover

Position estimation for planetary rovers has been typically limited to odometry based on proprioceptive measurements such as the integration of distance traveled and measurement of heading change. Here we present and compare two methods of online visual odometry suited for planetary rovers. Both methods use omnidirectional imagery to estimate motion of the rover. One method is based on robust estimation of optical flow and subsequent integration of the flow. The second method is a full structure-from-motion solution. To make the comparison meaningful we use the same set of raw corresponding visual features for each method. The dataset is an sequence of 2000 images taken during a field experiment in the Atacama desert, for which high resolution GPS ground truth is available.

A generalized estimating equations approach for analysis of the impact of new technology on a trawl fishery

The article describes a generalized estimating equations approach that was used to investigate the impact of technology on vessel performance in a trawl fishery during 1988-96, while accounting for spatial and temporal correlations in the catch-effort data. Robust estimation of parameters in the presence of several levels of clustering depended more on the choice of cluster definition than on the choice of correlation structure within the cluster. Models with smaller cluster sizes produced stable results, while models with larger cluster sizes, that may have had complex within-cluster correlation structures and that had within-cluster covariates, produced estimates sensitive to the correlation structure. The preferred model arising from this dataset assumed that catches from a vessel were correlated in the same years and the same areas, but independent in different years and areas. The model that assumed catches from a vessel were correlated in all years and areas, equivalent to a random effects term for vessel, produced spurious results. This was an unexpected finding that highlighted the need to adopt a systematic strategy for modelling. The article proposes a modelling strategy of selecting the best cluster definition first, and the working correlation structure (within clusters) second. The article discusses the selection and interpretation of the model in the light of background knowledge of the data and utility of the model, and the potential for this modelling approach to apply in similar statistical situations.

Detecting symmetry in scalar fields using augmented extremum graphs

Visualizing symmetric patterns in the data often helps the domain scientists make important observations and gain insights about the underlying experiment. Detecting symmetry in scalar fields is a nascent area of research and existing methods that detect symmetry are either not robust in the presence of noise or computationally costly. We propose a data structure called the augmented extremum graph and use it to design a novel symmetry detection method based on robust estimation of distances. The augmented extremum graph captures both topological and geometric information of the scalar field and enables robust and computationally efficient detection of symmetry. We apply the proposed method to detect symmetries in cryo-electron microscopy datasets and the experiments demonstrate that the algorithm is capable of detecting symmetry even in the presence of significant noise. We describe novel applications that use the detected symmetry to enhance visualization of scalar field data and facilitate their exploration.

Minimization Problems Based on Relative alpha-Entropy II: Reverse Projection

In part I of this two-part work, certain minimization problems based on a parametric family of relative entropies (denoted I-alpha) were studied. Such minimizers were called forward I-alpha-projections. Here, a complementary class of minimization problems leading to the so-called reverse I-alpha-projections are studied. Reverse I-alpha-projections, particularly on log-convex or power-law families, are of interest in robust estimation problems (alpha > 1) and in constrained compression settings (alpha < 1). Orthogonality of the power-law family with an associated linear family is first established and is then exploited to turn a reverse I-alpha-projection into a forward I-alpha-projection. The transformed problem is a simpler quasi-convex minimization subject to linear constraints.

Use of contexts in language model interpolation and adaptation

Language models (LMs) are often constructed by building multiple individual component models that are combined using context independent interpolation weights. By tuning these weights, using either perplexity or discriminative approaches, it is possible to adapt LMs to a particular task. This paper investigates the use of context dependent weighting in both interpolation and test-time adaptation of language models. Depending on the previous word contexts, a discrete history weighting function is used to adjust the contribution from each component model. As this dramatically increases the number of parameters to estimate, robust weight estimation schemes are required. Several approaches are described in this paper. The first approach is based on MAP estimation where interpolation weights of lower order contexts are used as smoothing priors. The second approach uses training data to ensure robust estimation of LM interpolation weights. This can also serve as a smoothing prior for MAP adaptation. A normalized perplexity metric is proposed to handle the bias of the standard perplexity criterion to corpus size. A range of schemes to combine weight information obtained from training data and test data hypotheses are also proposed to improve robustness during context dependent LM adaptation. In addition, a minimum Bayes' risk (MBR) based discriminative training scheme is also proposed. An efficient weighted finite state transducer (WFST) decoding algorithm for context dependent interpolation is also presented. The proposed technique was evaluated using a state-of-the-art Mandarin Chinese broadcast speech transcription task. Character error rate (CER) reductions up to 7.3 relative were obtained as well as consistent perplexity improvements. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

青藏高原东部电性结构特征及其构造意义

Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS) and its surroundings (eastern margin of Tibet) is one of the most complicated tectonic areas in the world. As the exhaust opening of the balanced materials of the Tibetan Plateau during the collision of Indan and Eurasian plates, the deep structure beneath EHS surrounding region is referred to as the key to the study of the dynamics of the plateau. EHS3D project, sponsored by NSFC, has been proposed to explore the deep electric features of the area. During the first stage of EHS3D(2006-2008), MT+LMT measurements have been conducted along two lines from Chayu to Qingshuihe (EHS3D-3) and Chayu to Ruoergai (EHS3D-2). This paper will discuss the MT models of EHS3D-3 line. By the data procrssing, including distortion analysis, Robust estimation and strike decomposition, rotated apparent resitivities and phases have been obtained for each station. Then conventional 2-D inversion algorithms (NLCG and RRI) were employed to produce 2-D models. The final preferred 2-D model suggests that the upper crust consists of resistive blocks while in mid-lower crust there are two extensive conductive bodies beneath Lhasa block and Qiangtang terrain respectively. Jinshajiang suture is a gradient belt and Bangong-Nujiang suture appear a conductive belt dipping to the north. . We concluded that the formation of the two conductive bodies attributed to the partial melt and fluids in the lower crust. The regional electric strike derived from decomposition analysis indicates that the crust and upper mantle move in different manners. The upper crust moves like slips of rigid blocks along major slip faults while the lower crust creeps as a flow in the conductive channels.

Métodos robustos em geoestatística

O objectivo principal da presente tese consiste no desenvolvimento de estimadores robustos do variograma com boas propriedades de eficiência. O variograma é um instrumento fundamental em Geoestatística, pois modela a estrutura de dependência do processo em estudo e influencia decisivamente a predição de novas observações. Os métodos tradicionais de estimação do variograma não são robustos, ou seja, são sensíveis a pequenos desvios das hipóteses do modelo. Essa questão é importante, pois as propriedades que motivam a aplicação de tais métodos, podem não ser válidas nas vizinhanças do modelo assumido. O presente trabalho começa por conter uma revisão dos principais conceitos em Geoestatística e da estimação tradicional do variograma. De seguida, resumem-se algumas noções fundamentais sobre robustez estatística. No seguimento, apresenta-se um novo método de estimação do variograma que se designou por estimador de múltiplos variogramas. O método consiste em quatro etapas, nas quais prevalecem, alternadamente, os critérios de robustez ou de eficiência. A partir da amostra inicial, são calculadas, de forma robusta, algumas estimativas pontuais do variograma; com base nessas estimativas pontuais, são estimados os parâmetros do modelo pelo método dos mínimos quadrados; as duas fases anteriores são repetidas, criando um conjunto de múltiplas estimativas da função variograma; por fim, a estimativa final do variograma é definida pela mediana das estimativas obtidas anteriormente. Assim, é possível obter um estimador que tem boas propriedades de robustez e boa eficiência em processos Gaussianos. A investigação desenvolvida revelou que, quando se usam estimativas discretas na primeira fase da estimação do variograma, existem situações onde a identificabilidade dos parâmetros não está assegurada. Para os modelos de variograma mais comuns, foi possível estabelecer condições, pouco restritivas, que garantem a unicidade de solução na estimação do variograma. A estimação do variograma supõe sempre a estacionaridade da média do processo. Como é importante que existam procedimentos objectivos para avaliar tal condição, neste trabalho sugere-se um teste para validar essa hipótese. A estatística do teste é um estimador-MM, cuja distribuição é desconhecida nas condições de dependência assumidas. Tendo em vista a sua aproximação, apresenta-se uma versão do método bootstrap adequada ao estudo de observações dependentes de processos espaciais. Finalmente, o estimador de múltiplos variogramas é avaliado em termos da sua aplicação prática. O trabalho contém um estudo de simulação que confirma as propriedades estabelecidas. Em todos os casos analisados, o estimador de múltiplos variogramas produziu melhores resultados do que as alternativas usuais, tanto para a distribuição assumida, como para distribuições contaminadas.

Estimação robusta em modelos lineares de equações simultâneas

Os Modelos de Equações Simultâneas (SEM) são modelos estatísticos com muita tradição em estudos de Econometria, uma vez que permitem representar e estudar uma vasta gama de processos económicos. Os estimadores mais usados em SEM resultam da aplicação do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados ou do Método da Máxima Verosimilhança, os quais não são robustos. Em Maronna e Yohai (1997), os autores propõem formas de “robustificar” esses estimadores. Um outro método de estimação com interesse nestes modelos é o Método dos Momentos Generalizado (GMM), o qual também conduz a estimadores não robustos. Estimadores que sofrem de falta de robustez são muito inconvenientes uma vez que podem conduzir a resultados enganadores quando são violadas as hipóteses subjacentes ao modelo assumido. Os estimadores robustos são de grande valor, em particular quando os modelos em estudo são complexos, como é o caso dos SEM. O principal objectivo desta investigação foi o de procurar tais estimadores tendo-se construído um estimador robusto a que se deu o nome de GMMOGK. Trata-se de uma versão robusta do estimador GMM. Para avaliar o desempenho do novo estimador foi feito um adequado estudo de simulação e foi também feita a aplicação do estimador a um conjunto de dados reais. O estimador robusto tem um bom desempenho nos modelos heterocedásticos considerados e, nessas condições, comporta-se melhor do que os estimadores não robustos usados no estudo. Contudo, quando a análise é feita em cada equação separadamente, a especificidade de cada equação individual e a estrutura de dependência do sistema são dois aspectos que influenciam o desempenho do estimador, tal como acontece com os estimadores usuais. Para enquadrar a investigação, o texto inclui uma revisão de aspectos essenciais dos SEM, o seu papel em Econometria, os principais métodos de estimação, com particular ênfase no GMM, e uma curta introdução à estimação robusta.

A domain-general perspective on medial frontal brain activity during performance monitoring

Activity of the medial frontal cortex (MFC) has been implicated in attention regulation and performance monitoring. The MFC is thought to generate several event-related potential (ERPs) components, known as medial frontal negativities (MFNs), that are elicited when a behavioural response becomes difficult to control (e.g., following an error or shifting from a frequently executed response). The functional significance of MFNs has traditionally been interpreted in the context of the paradigm used to elicit a specific response, such as errors. In a series of studies, we consider the functional similarity of multiple MFC brain responses by designing novel performance monitoring tasks and exploiting advanced methods for electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing and robust estimation statistics for hypothesis testing. In study 1, we designed a response cueing task and used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to show that the latent factors describing a MFN to stimuli that cued the potential need to inhibit a response on upcoming trials also accounted for medial frontal brain responses that occurred when individuals made a mistake or inhibited an incorrect response. It was also found that increases in theta occurred to each of these task events, and that the effects were evident at the group level and in single cases. In study 2, we replicated our method of classifying MFC activity to cues in our response task and showed again, using additional tasks, that error commission, response inhibition, and, to a lesser extent, the processing of performance feedback all elicited similar changes across MFNs and theta power. In the final study, we converted our response cueing paradigm into a saccade cueing task in order to examine the oscillatory dynamics of response preparation. We found that, compared to easy pro-saccades, successfully preparing a difficult anti-saccadic response was characterized by an increase in MFC theta and the suppression of posterior alpha power prior to executing the eye movement. These findings align with a large body of literature on performance monitoring and ERPs, and indicate that MFNs, along with their signature in theta power, reflects the general process of controlling attention and adapting behaviour without the need to induce error commission, the inhibition of responses, or the presentation of negative feedback.

Méthodes de rééchantillonnage en méthodologie d'enquête

Le sujet principal de cette thèse porte sur l'étude de l'estimation de la variance d'une statistique basée sur des données d'enquête imputées via le bootstrap (ou la méthode de Cyrano). L'application d'une méthode bootstrap conçue pour des données d'enquête complètes (en absence de non-réponse) en présence de valeurs imputées et faire comme si celles-ci étaient de vraies observations peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la variance. Dans ce contexte, Shao et Sitter (1996) ont introduit une procédure bootstrap dans laquelle la variable étudiée et l'indicateur de réponse sont rééchantillonnés ensemble et les non-répondants bootstrap sont imputés de la même manière qu'est traité l'échantillon original. L'estimation bootstrap de la variance obtenue est valide lorsque la fraction de sondage est faible. Dans le chapitre 1, nous commençons par faire une revue des méthodes bootstrap existantes pour les données d'enquête (complètes et imputées) et les présentons dans un cadre unifié pour la première fois dans la littérature. Dans le chapitre 2, nous introduisons une nouvelle procédure bootstrap pour estimer la variance sous l'approche du modèle de non-réponse lorsque le mécanisme de non-réponse uniforme est présumé. En utilisant seulement les informations sur le taux de réponse, contrairement à Shao et Sitter (1996) qui nécessite l'indicateur de réponse individuelle, l'indicateur de réponse bootstrap est généré pour chaque échantillon bootstrap menant à un estimateur bootstrap de la variance valide même pour les fractions de sondage non-négligeables. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les approches bootstrap par pseudo-population et nous considérons une classe plus générale de mécanismes de non-réponse. Nous développons deux procédures bootstrap par pseudo-population pour estimer la variance d'un estimateur imputé par rapport à l'approche du modèle de non-réponse et à celle du modèle d'imputation. Ces procédures sont également valides même pour des fractions de sondage non-négligeables.