Thirteen years of surgical site infection surveillance in Swiss hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential element of surgical site infection (SSI) prevention. Few studies have evaluated the long-term effect of these programmes. AIM: To present data from a 13-year multicentre SSI surveillance programme from western and southern Switzerland. METHODS: Surveillance with post-discharge follow-up was performed according to the US National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) system methods. SSI rates were calculated for each surveyed type of surgery, overall and by year of participation in the programme. Risk factors for SSI and the effect of surveillance time on SSI rates were analysed by multiple logistic regression. FINDINGS: Overall SSI rates were 18.2% after 7411 colectomies, 6.4% after 6383 appendicectomies, 2.3% after 7411 cholecystectomies, 1.7% after 9933 herniorrhaphies, 1.6% after 6341 hip arthroplasties, and 1.3% after 3667 knee arthroplasties. The frequency of SSI detected after discharge varied between 21% for colectomy and 94% for knee arthroplasty. Independent risk factors for SSI differed between operations. The NNIS risk index was predictive of SSI in gastrointestinal surgery only. Laparoscopic technique was protective overall, but associated with higher rates of organ-space infections after appendicectomy. The duration of participation in the surveillance programme was not associated with a decreased SSI rate for any of the included procedure. CONCLUSION: These data confirm the effect of post-discharge surveillance on SSI rates and the protective effect of laparoscopy. There is a need to establish alternative case-mix adjustment methods. In contrast to other European programmes, no positive impact of surveillance duration on SSI rates was observed.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Safety and outcome of coronary interventions with special reference to anticoagulation and stent type

University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, Doctoral Programme of Clinical Investigation, Heart Center, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland Division of Internal Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Seinäjoki Central Hospital, Seinäjoki, Finland Heart Center, Satakunta Central Hospital, Pori, Finland Annales Universitatis Turkuensis Painosalama Oy, Turku, Finland 2015 Antithrombotic therapy during and after coronary procedures always entails the challenging establishment of a balance between bleeding and thrombotic complications. It has been generally recommended to patients on long-term warfarin therapy to discontinue warfarin a few days prior to elective coronary angiography or intervention to prevent bleeding complications. Bridging therapy with heparin is recommended for patients at an increased risk of thromboembolism who require the interruption of anticoagulation for elective surgery or an invasive procedure. In study I, consecutive patients on warfarin therapy referred for diagnostic coronary angiography were compared to control patients with a similar disease presentation without warfarin. The strategy of performing coronary angiography during uninterrupted therapeutic warfarin anticoagulation appeared to be a relatively safe alternative to bridging therapy, if the international normalized ratio level was not on a supratherapeutic level. In-stent restenosis remains an important reason for failure of long-term success after a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce the problem of restenosis inherent to bare metal stents (BMS). However, a longer delay in arterial healing may extend the risk of stent thrombosis (ST) far beyond 30 days after the DES implantation. Early discontinuation of antiplatelet therapy has been the most important predisposing factor for ST. In study II, patients on long-term oral anticoagulant (OAC) underwent DES or BMS stenting with a median of 3.5 years’follow-up. The selective use of DESs with a short triple therapy seemed to be safe in OAC patients, since late STs were rare even without long clopidogrel treatment. Major bleeding and cardiac events were common in this patient group irrespective of stent type. In order to help to predict the bleeding risk in patients on OAC, several different bleeding risk scorings have been developed. Risk scoring systems have also been used also in the setting of patients undergoing a PCI. In study III, the predictive value of an outpatient bleeding risk index (OBRI) to identify patients at high risk of bleeding was analysed. The bleeding risk seemed not to modify periprocedural or long-term treatment choices in patients on OAC after a percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients with a high OBRI often had major bleeding episodes, and the OBRI may be suitable for risk evaluation in this patient group. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a novel technology for imaging intravascular coronary arteries. OCT is a light-based imaging modality that enables a 12–18 µm tissue axial resolution to visualize plaques in the vessel, possible dissections and thrombi as well as, stent strut appositions and coverage, and to measure the vessel lumen and lesions. In study IV, 30 days after titanium-nitride-oxide (TITANOX)-coated stent implantation, the binary stent strut coverage was satisfactory and the prevalence of malapposed struts was low as evaluated by OCT. Long-term clinical events in patients treated with (TITANOX)-coated bio-active stents (BAS) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) in routine clinical practice were examined in study V. At the 3-year follow-up, BAS resulted in better long-term outcome when compared with PES with an infrequent need for target vessel revascularization. Keywords: anticoagulation, restenosis, thrombosis, bleeding, optical coherence tomography, titanium

Evaluación del riesgo cardiovascular usando la escala de Framingham en aviadores militares del ejército colombiano

Objetivo La enfermedad coronaria es la causa más frecuente de incapacitación súbita en vuelo, su etiología se debe a factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Los pilotos militares probablemente tienen una prevalencia diferente a las aviaciones civiles. Con el presente estudio se estima la prevalencia y proporción de factores de riesgo en aviadores militares del Ejército Colombiano. Metodología Estudio descriptivo correlacional. Se revisaron controles médicos de aviadores del Ejército Colombiano certificados, completando 1317 historias clínicas. Se obtuvieron datos como edad, presión arterial, tabaquismo, peso, talla, índice de masa muscular, colesterol total, triglicéridos y colesterol HDL. Según los datos recolectados, se calculó el Índice de Framingham y se estimó el índice de riesgo cardiovascular. Se calculó la prevalencia de sobrepeso, obesidad, hipertensión, hiperlipidemia, diabetes, HDL bajo y tabaquismo activo y la proporción de las mismas discriminando por grupos. Los datos fueron analizados mediante SPSS y los resultados expresados según estadística descriptiva. Resultados La prevalencia de factores de riesgo en aviadores militares fue HTA 3.34%, hiperlipidemia 56.9 %, HDL bajo 67.27%, diabetes 0%, tabaquismo 12.8 %, sobrepeso 55.1% obesidad 4.3% Hubo diferencia entre pilotos y tripulantes de las diferentes aeronaves y según sus equipos de vuelo. Conclusiones La prevalencia de factores de riesgo difiere entre el personal militar de vuelo y los aviadores civiles. Se identificó entre leve y latente el riesgo cardiovascular, según la escala Framingham, lo cual obliga a la realización de programas específicos y seguimiento estricto para modificar el perfil de riesgo y mejorar así la salud ocupacional de los aviadores del Ejército Colombiano.

Prevalencia de neumoconiosis y su relación con medidas de higiene y seguridad industrial y niveles ambientales de carbón en minería subterránea en el departamento de Cundinamarca - Colombia, 2015

Introducción: La exposición en minas subterráneas a altos niveles de polvo de carbón está relacionada con patologías pulmonares. Objetivo: Determinar la prevalencia de neumoconiosis, medidas de higiene y seguridad industrial y su relación con niveles ambientales de carbón en trabajadores de minas de socavón en Cundinamarca. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio de corte transversal, en 215 trabajadores seleccionados mediante muestreo probabilístico estratificado con asignación proporcional. Se realizaron monitoreos ambientales, radiografías de tórax y encuestas con variables sociodemográficas y laborales. Se emplearon medidas de tendencia central y dispersión y la prueba de independencia ji-cuadrado de Pearson o pruebas exactas, con el fin de establecer las asociaciones. Resultados: El 99,5% de la población perteneció al género masculino, el 36,7% tenía entre 41-50 años, con un promedio de años de trabajo de 21,70 ± 9,99. La prevalencia de neumoconiosis fue de 42,3% y la mediana de la concentración de polvo de carbón bituminoso fue de 2,329670 mg/m3. El índice de riesgo de polvo de carbón presentó diferencias significativas en las categorías de bajo (p=0,0001) y medio (p=0,0186) con la prevalencia de neumoconiosis. El 84,2% reporto no usar mascarilla. No se presentan diferencias entre los niveles de carbón (p=0,194) con la prevalencia de neumoconiosis. Conclusiones: Se encontró una prevalencia de neumoconiosis de 42,3% en Cundinamarca. Se requiere contar con medidas de higiene y seguridad industrial efectivas para controlar el riesgo al que están expuestos los mineros de carbón por la inhalación de polvo de carbón.

Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

Knowledge-based modelling and simulation of operational problems of microbiological origin in wastewater treatment plants

The activated sludge and anaerobic digestion processes have been modelled in widely accepted models. Nevertheless, these models still have limitations when describing operational problems of microbiological origin. The aim of this thesis is to develop a knowledge-based model to simulate risk of plant-wide operational problems of microbiological origin.For the risk model heuristic knowledge from experts and literature was implemented in a rule-based system. Using fuzzy logic, the system can infer a risk index for the main operational problems of microbiological origin (i.e. filamentous bulking, biological foaming, rising sludge and deflocculation). To show the results of the risk model, it was implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Models. This allowed to study the risk model's response in different scenarios and control strategies. The risk model has shown to be really useful providing a third criterion to evaluate control strategies apart from the economical and environmental criteria.

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.

Surgical Site Infection in a University Hospital in Northeast Brazil

We examined prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) in a tertiary teaching hospital in northeast Brazil, from January 1994 to December 2003. The survey included 5,742 patients subjected to thoracic, urologic, vascular and general surgery. The criteria for diagnosing SSI were those of the Centers for Disease Control, USA, and the variables of the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance risk index were used. Data analysis revealed that anesthetic risk scores, wound class and duration of surgery were significantly associated with SSI. A total of 296 SSIs were detected among the 5,742 patients (5.1%). The overall incidence of SSI was 8.8% in 1994; it decreased to 3.3% in 2003. In conclusion, the use of educational strategies, based on guidelines for SSI prevention reduced SSI incidence. Appropriate management of preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative incision care, and a surveillance system based on international criteria, were useful in reducing SSI rates in our hospital

Complicações pós-operatórias em cirurgia torácica relacionadas aos índices e testes preditores de risco cirúrgico pré-operatórios

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desnutrição em pacientes com câncer gastrointestinal: efetividade de diferentes métodos de diagnóstico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapeamento de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Espírito Santo e extremo sul da Bahia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Malnutrition in patients with gastrointestinal cancer: effectiveness of different diagnostic methods

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Responses of transplanted native tree species to invasive alien grass removals in an abandoned cattle pasture in the Lacandon region, Mexico

We tested the early performance of 16 native early-, mid-, and late-successional tree species in response to four intensities of grass removal in an abandoned cattle pasture dominated by the introduced, invasive African grass, Cynodon plectostachyus, within the Lacandon rainforest region, southeast Mexico. The increase in grass removals significantly improved the performance of many species, especially of early-and mid-successional species, while performance of late-successional species was relatively poor and did not differ significantly among treatments. Good site preparation and at least one additional grass removal four months after seedling transplant were found to be essential; additional grass removals led to improved significantly performance of saplings in most cases. In order to evaluate the potential of transplanting tree seedlings successfully in abandoned tropical pastures, we developed a "planting risk index", combining field performance measurements and plantation cost estimations. Our results showed a great potential for establishing restoration plantings with many early-and mid-successional species. Although planting risk of late-successional species was considered high, certain species showed some possibilities of acclimation after 18 months and should be considered in future plantation arrangements in view of their long-term contributions to biodiversity maintenance and also to human welfare through delivery of ecosystem services. Conducting a planting risk analysis can help avoid failure of restoration strategies involving simultaneous planting of early-, mid-, and late-successional tree species. This in turn will improve cost-effectiveness of initial interventions in large-scale, long-term restoration programs.