Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways

This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

The Portuguese language version of social phobia and Anxiety Inventory: analysis of items and internal consistency in a Brazilian sample of 1,014 undergraduate students

OBJECTIVE: Theoretical and empirical analysis of items and internal consistency of the Portuguese-language version of Social Phobia and Anxiety Inventory (SPAI-Portuguese). METHODS: Social phobia experts conducted a 45-item content analysis of the SPAI-Portuguese administered to a sample of 1,014 university students. Item discrimination was evaluated by Student's t test; interitem, mean and item-to-total correlations, by Pearson coefficient; reliability was estimated by Cronbach's alpha. RESULTS: There was 100% agreement among experts concerning the 45 items. On the SPAI-Portuguese 43 items were discriminative (p < 0.05). A few inter-item correlations between both subscales were below 0.2. The mean inter-item correlations were: 0.41 on social phobia subscale; 0.32 on agoraphobia subscale and 0.32 on the SPAI-Portuguese. Item-to-total correlations were all higher then 0.3 (p < 0.001). Cronbach's alphas were: 0.95 on the SPAI-Portuguese; 0.96 on social phobia subscale; 0.85 on agoraphobia subscale. CONCLUSION: The 45-item content analysis revealed appropriateness concerning the underlying construct of the SPAI-Portuguese (social phobia, agoraphobia) with good discriminative capacity on 43 items. The mean inter-item correlations and reliability coefficients demonstrated the SPAI-Portuguese and subscales internal consistency and multidimensionality. No item was suppressed in the SPAI-Portuguese but the authors suggest that a shortened SPAI, in its different versions, could be an even more useful tool for research settings in social phobia.

Reformas agrarias y reparto de la tierra. Análisis critico del sistema vigente y eventual propuesta de solución de un problema actual a partir de sus raíces romanas

La idea central del proyecto es estudiar el régimen de propiedad de la tierra. Cómo se inicia, a partir del momento en que el hombre muta de nómade en sedentario, atravesando desde entonces una serie de sistemas que sucesivamente van siendo superados por otros que se demuestran más eficaces o, al menos, más acordes a las necesidades sociales del momento: Propiedad colectiva, propiedad familiar, propiedad individual. Aquí se inserta el derecho romano, que supo por dolorosa experiencia plasmada en cruentos conflictos sociales, implementar finalmente una suerte de reforma agraria basada en el consenso, que se instrumentó bajo la forma del derecho real de enfiteusis. No hubo expropiación, pero se permitió al trabajador rural tener importantes derechos sobre el suelo que laboraba, y sobre los frutos de esa labor. Este derecho real, admitido en muchas legislaciones modernas, no tiene cabida en Argentina la cual optó por la muy discutible experiencia de suprimirlo, a raíz de una desventurada experiencia histórica. ¿Será posible reintroducirlo, con una modalidad más acorde al precedente romano? ¿Tendrá utilidad para coadyuvar a paliar un agudo problema social en otros países hermanos de América? Si eso fuere así, nuestra idea es proponer una reforma legal, que pueda ser útil a nuestros legisladores. Con lo cual se lograría integrar e internalizar la experiencia romana, para intentar discernir si ella puede ser de provecho aún hoy

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Qualités psychométriques de la version française de la TAS-20 et prévalence de l'alexithymie chez 264 adolescents tout-venant [The 20-item Toronto alexithymia scale: structural validity, internal consistency and prevalence of alexithymia in a Swiss adolescent sample]

L'objectif de cette étude est d'examiner la structure factorielle et la consistance interne de la TAS-20 sur un échantillon d'adolescents (n = 264), ainsi que de décrire la distribution des caractéristiques alexithymiques dans cet échantillon. La structure à trois facteurs de la TAS-20 a été confirmée par notre analyse factorielle confirmatoire. La consistance interne, mesurée à l'aide d'alpha de Cronbach, est acceptable pour le premier facteur (difficulté à identifier les sentiments (DIF)), bonne pour le second (difficulté à verbaliser les sentiments (DDF)), mais en revanche, faible pour le troisième facteur (pensées orientées vers l'extérieur (EOT)). Les résultats d'une Anova mettent en évidence une tendance linéaire indiquant que plus l'âge augmente plus le niveau d'alexithymie (score total TAS-20), la difficulté à identifier les sentiments et les pensées orientées vers l'extérieur diminuent. En ce qui concerne la prévalence de l'alexithymie, on remarque en effet que 38,5 % des adolescents de moins de 16 ans sont considérés comme alexithymiques, contre 30,1 % des 16-17 ans et 22 % des plus de 17 ans. Notre étude indique donc que la TAS-20 est un instrument adéquat pour évaluer l'alexithymie à l'adolescence, tout en suggérant quelques précautions étant donné l'aspect développemental de cette période.

Choice, Deferral and Consistency

In this paper we study decision making in situations where the individual’s preferences are not assumed to be complete. First, we identify conditions that are necessary and sufficient for choice behavior in general domains to be consistent with maximization of a possibly incomplete preference relation. In this model of maximally dominant choice, the agent defers/avoids choosing at those and only those menus where a most preferred option does not exist. This allows for simple explanations of conflict-induced deferral and choice overload. It also suggests a criterion for distinguishing between indifference and incomparability based on observable data. A simple extension of this model also incorporates decision costs and provides a theoretical framework that is compatible with the experimental design that we propose to elicit possibly incomplete preferences in the lab. The design builds on the introduction of monetary costs that induce choice of a most preferred feasible option if one exists and deferral otherwise. Based on this design we found evidence suggesting that a quarter of the subjects in our study had incomplete preferences, and that these made significantly more consistent choices than a group of subjects who were forced to choose. The latter effect, however, is mitigated once data on indifferences are accounted for.

The Visual Dysphagia Questionnaire: Piloting a New Tool for Assessing Food Consistency-Dependent Dysphagia in Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Background and Aims: The international EEsAI study group is currently developing the first activity index specific for Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). None of the existing dysphagia questionnaires takes into account the consistency of the ingested food that considerably impacts the symptom presentation. Goal: To develop an EoE-specific questionnaire assessing dysphagia associated with different food consistencies. Methods: Based on patient chart reviews, an expert panel (EEsAI study group) identified internationally standardized food prototypes typically associated with EoE-related dysphagia. Food consistencies were correlated with EoE-related dysphagia, also considering potential food avoidance. This Visual Dysphagia Questionnaire (VDQ) was then tested, as a pilot, in 10 EoE patients. Results: The following 9 food consistency prototypes were identified: water, soft foods (pudding, jelly), grits, toast bread, French fries, dry rice, ground meat, raw fibrous foods (eg. apple, carrot), solid meat. Dysphagia was ranked on a 5-point Likert scale (0=no difficulties, 5=very severe difficulties, food will not pass). Severity of dysphagia in the 10 EoE patients was related to the eosinophil load and presence of esophageal strictures. Conclusions: The VDQ will be the first EoE-specific tool for assessing dysphagia related to internationally defined food consistencies. It performed well in a pilot study and will now be further evaluated in a cohort study including 100 adult and 100 pediatric EoE patients.

Infected erythrocyte choline carrier inhibitors: exploring some potentialities inside Plasmodium phospholipid metabolism for eventual resistance acquisition

We have developed a model for designing antimalarial drugs based on interference with an essential metabolism developed by Plasmodium during its intraerythrocytic cycle, phospholipid (PL) metabolism. The most promising drug interference is choline transporter blockage, which provides Plasmodium with a supply of precursor for synthesis of phosphatidylcholine (PC), the major PL of infected erythrocytes. Choline entry is a limiting step in this metabolic pathway and occurs by a facilitated-diffusion system involving an asymmetric carrier operating according to a cyclic model. Choline transport in the erythrocytes is not sodium dependent nor stereospecific as demonstrated using stereoisomers of alpha and beta methylcholine. These last two characteristics along with distinct effects of nitrogen substitution on transport rate demonstrate that choline transport in the infected erythrocyte possesses characteristics quite distinct from that of the nervous system. This indicates a possible discrimination between the antimalarial activity (inhibition of choline transport in the infected erythrocyte) and a possible toxic effect through inhibition of choline entry in synaptosomes. Apart from the de novo pathway of choline, PC can be synthesized by N-methylation from phosphatidylethanolamine (PE). There is a de novo pathway for PE biosynthesis from ethanolamine in infected cells but phosphatidylserine (PS) decarboxylation also occurs. In addition, PE can be directly and abundantly synthesized from serine decarboxylation into ethanolamine, a pathway which is absent from the host. The variety of the pathways that exist for the biosynthesis of one given PL led us to investigate whether an equilibrium can occur between all PL metabolic pathways. Indeed, if alternative (compensative) pathway(s) can operate after blockage of the de novo PC biosynthesis pathway this would indicate a potential mechanism for resistance acquisition. Up until now, there is no evidence of such a compensative process occurring in Plasmodium-infected erythrocytes under physiological conditions. Besides, the discovery of a highly parasite-specific pathway (serine decarboxylation and the presence of PS synthase) constitutes a very attractive and promising target, which could be attacked if resistances are built up against choline analogs. Indeed, potential inhibitions of the serine decarboxylase pathway could be very useful in acting instead of, or in surgery with, choline analogs.

Local and global consistency properties for student placement

In the context of resource allocation on the basis of priorities, Ergin (2002) identifies a necessary and sufficient condition on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies a consistency principle. Ergin (2002) formulates consistency as a local property based on a fixed population of agents and fixed resources -- we refer to this condition as local consistency and to his condition on the priority structure as local acyclicity. We identify a related but stronger necessary and sufficient condition (unit acyclicity) on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies a more standard global consistency property. Next, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the student-optimal stable mechanism to satisfy converse consistency principles. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition (local shift-freeness) on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies local converse consistency. Interestingly, local acyclicity implies local shift-freeness and hence the student-optimal stable mechanism more frequently satisfies local converse consistency than local consistency. Finally, in order for the student-optimal stable mechanism to be globally conversely consistent, one again has to impose unit acyclicity on the priority structure. Hence, unit acyclicity is a necessary and sufficient condition on the priority structure for the student-optimal stable mechanism to satisfy global consistency or global converse consistency.

Consistency and optimality

Assume that the problem Qo is not solvable in polynomial time. For theories T containing a sufficiently rich part of true arithmetic we characterize T U {ConT} as the minimal extension of T proving for some algorithm that it decides Qo as fast as any algorithm B with the property that T proves that B decides Qo. Here, ConT claims the consistency of T. Moreover, we characterize problems with an optimal algorithm in terms of arithmetical theories.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Effects of MRI scan acceleration on brain volume measurement consistency.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effects of recent advances in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiofrequency (RF) coil and parallel imaging technology on brain volume measurement consistency. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In all, 103 whole-brain MRI volumes were acquired at a clinical 3T MRI, equipped with a 12- and 32-channel head coil, using the T1-weighted protocol as employed in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study with parallel imaging accelerations ranging from 1 to 5. An experienced reader performed qualitative ratings of the images. For quantitative analysis, differences in composite width (CW, a measure of image similarity) and boundary shift integral (BSI, a measure of whole-brain atrophy) were calculated. RESULTS: Intra- and intersession comparisons of CW and BSI measures from scans with equal acceleration demonstrated excellent scan-rescan accuracy, even at the highest acceleration applied. Pairs-of-scans acquired with different accelerations exhibited poor scan-rescan consistency only when differences in the acceleration factor were maximized. A change in the coil hardware between compared scans was found to bias the BSI measure. CONCLUSION: The most important findings are that the accelerated acquisitions appear to be compatible with the assessment of high-quality quantitative information and that for highest scan-rescan accuracy in serial scans the acquisition protocol should be kept as consistent as possible over time. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2012;36:1234-1240. ©2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Immunogenicity, reactogenicity and consistency of production of a Brazilian combined vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and Haemophilus influenzae type b

A randomized, double-blinded study evaluating the immunogenicity, safety and consistency of production of a combined diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine entirely produced in Brazil by Bio-Manguinhos and Instituto Butantan (DTP/Hib-BM) was undertaken. The reference vaccine had the same DTP vaccine but the Hib component was produced using purified materials supplied by GlaxoSmithKline (DTP/Hib-GSK), which is registered and has supplied the Brazilian National Immunization Program for over more than five years. One thousand infants were recruited for the study and received vaccinations at two, four and six months of age. With respect to immunogenicity, the vaccination protocol was followed in 95.6% and 98.4% of infants in the DTP/Hib-BM and DTP/Hib-GSK groups, respectively. For the Hib component of the study, there was 100% seroprotection (>0.15 µg/mL) with all three lots of DTP/Hib-BM and DTP/Hib-GSK. The geometric mean titer (GMT) was 9.3 µg/mL, 10.3 µg/mL and 10.3 µg/mL for lots 1, 2 and 3 of DTP/Hib-BM, respectively, and the GMT was 11.3 g/mL for DTP/Hib-GSK. For diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis, seroprotection was 99.7%, 100% and 99.9%, respectively, for DTP/Hib-BM, three lots altogether and 99.2%, 100% and 100% for DTP/Hib-GSK. GMTs were similar across all lots and vaccines. Adverse events rates were comparable among the vaccine groups. The Brazilian DTP/Hib vaccine demonstrated an immunogenicity and reactogenicity profile similar to that of the reference vaccine.