Location and ages of terrestrial peatlands located on continental shelves and in coastal sediments

This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

A regional chemostratigraphically-defined correlation framework for the late Triassic TAG-I Formation in Blocks 402 and 405a, Algeria

The Triassic Argilo-Gréseux Inférieur Formation (TAG-I) is one of the principal hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Berkine Basin of Algeria. Sedimentological studies have shown that it exhibits marked spatial and temporal facies variations on both a local field scale and a regional basinal scale. This variability, combined with a lack of diagnostic flora and fauna, makes regional correlation within the unit difficult. In turn, the lack of a consistent regional stratigraphic framework hampers the comparison of the various correlation schemes devised by operators in the basin. Contrasting the TAG-I in Blocks 402 and 405a exemplifies the problems encountered when attempting regionally to define a correlation framework for the interval. Between these two blocks, a distance of approximately 200 km, there are marked changes in the style of deposition from sand-dominated, proximal fluvial systems in the SW (Block 405a, MLN, MLC, KMD and MLNW fields) to a more distal, more clay-prone system in the NE (Block 402, ROD/BRSE/BSFN, SFNE and BSF fields). A chemostratigraphic study of the TAG-I in these two blocks has allowed a four-fold correlation framework to be defined, where each chemostratigraphic package has distinctive geochemical features. Chemostratigraphic Package 10, the oldest unit, lies above the Hercynian Unconformity, but beneath a geochemically identifiable hiatal surface. Chemostratigraphic Package 20 lies above the hiatal surface but is separated from the overlying packages by a mineralogical change identifiable in both claystone and sandstone geochemistry. Chemostratigraphic Packages 30 and 40 are chemically somewhat similar, but are separated by a regional event interpreted as a period of dolocrete and lacustrine development. By combining the geochemical differentiation of the units and recognition of their stratal boundaries, it is possible to define a correlation for the TAG-I between Blocks 402 and 405a. The proposed correlation between the two blocks suggests that the northern parts of Block 405a may have been occupied by a spur or subsidiary channel from the main SW–NE-trending fluvial system, resulting in one of the chemically defined packages being demonstrably absent in the MLNW, MLN, KMD and MLC fields when compared with the other areas of the study.

Late Quaternary glaciations in Far NE Russia; combining moraines, topography and chronology to assess regional and global glaciation synchrony

During various periods of Late Quaternary glaciation, small ice-sheets, -caps, -fields and valley glaciers, occupied the mountains and uplands of Far NE Russia (including the Verkhoyansk, Suntar-Khayata, and Chersky Mountains; the KolymaeAnyuy and Koryak Highlands; and much of the Kamchatka and Chukchi
Peninsulas). Here, the margins of former glaciers across this region are constrained through the comprehensive mapping of moraines from remote sensing data (Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite images; ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM2); and Viewfinder Panorama DEM data). A total of 8414 moraines
are mapped, and this record is integrated with a series of published age-estimates (n = 25), considered to chronologically-constrain former ice-margin positions. Geomorphological and chronological data are compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce ‘best estimate’ reconstructions of ice extent during the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) and, to a lesser degree, during earlier phases of glaciation. The data reveal that much of Far NE Russia (~1,092,427 km2) preserves a glaciated landscape (i.e. is bounded by moraines), but there is no evidence of former ice masses having extended more than 270 km beyond mountain centres (suggesting that, during the Late Quaternary, the region has not been occupied by extensive ice sheets). During the gLGM, specifically, glaciers occupied ~253,000 km2, and rarely extended more than 50 km in length. During earlier (pre-gLGM) periods, glaciers were more extensive, though the timing of former glaciation, and the maximum Quaternary extent, appears to have been asynchronous across the region, and out-of-phase with ice-extent maxima elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. This glacial history is partly explained through consideration of climatic-forcing
(particularly moisture-availability, solar insolation and albedo), though topographic-controls upon the former extent and dynamics of glaciers are also considered, as are topographic-controls upon moraine deposition and preservation. Ultimately, our ability to understand the glacial and climatic history of this region is restricted when the geomorphological-record alone is considered, particularly as directly-dated glacial deposits are few, and topographic and climatic controls upon the moraine record are difficult to
distinguish.

Contribution to the geology of Thailand and implications for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia

Abstract The purpose of this study is to unravel the geodynamic evolution of Thailand and, from that, to extend the interpretation to the rest of Southeast Asia. The methodology was based in a first time on fieldwork in Northern Thailand and Southernmost Myanmar, using a multidisciplinary approach, and then on the compilation and re-interpretation, in a plate tectonics point of view, of existing data about the whole Southeast Asia. The main results concern the Nan-Uttaradit suture, the Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt and the proposition of a new location for the Palaeotethys suture. This led to the establishment of a new plate tectonic model for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia, implying the existence new terranes (Orang Laut and the redefinition of Shan-Thai) and the role of the Palaeopacific Ocean in the tectonic development of the area. The model proposed here considers the Palaeotethys suture as located along the Tertiary Mae Yuam Fault, which represents the divide between the Cimmerian Sibumasu terrane and the Indochina-derived Shan-Thai block. The term Shan-Thai, previously used to define the Cimmerian area (when the Palaeotethys suture was thought to represented by the Nan-Uttaradit suture), was redefined here by keeping its geographical location within the Shan States of Myanmar and Central-Northern Thailand, but attributing it an East Asian Origin. Its detachment from Indochina was the result of the Early Permian opening of the Nan basin. The Nan basin closed during the Middle Triassic, before the deposition of Carnian-Norian molasse. The modalities of the closure of the basin imply a first phase of Middle Permian obduction, followed by final eastwards subduction. The Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt consists of scattered basaltic rocks erupted at least during the Viséan in an extensional continental intraplate setting, on the Shan-Thai part of the Indochina block. The Viséan age was established by the dating of limestone stratigraphically overlying the basalts. In several localities of the East Asian Continent, coeval extensional features occur, possibly implying one or more Early Carboniferous extensional events at a regional scale. These events occurred either due to the presence of a mantle plume or to the roll-back of the Palaeopacific Ocean, subducting beneath Indochina and South China, or both. The Palaeopacific Ocean is responsible, during the Early Permian, for the opening of the Song Ma and Poko back-arcs (Vietnam) with the consequent detachment of the Orang Laut Terranes (Eastern Vietnam, West Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). The Late Triassic/Early Jurassic closure of the Eastern Palaeotethys is considered as having taken place by subduction beneath its southern margin (Gondwana), due to the absence of Late Palaeozoic arc magmatism on its northern (Indochinese) margin and the presence of volcanism on the Cimmerian blocks (Mergui, Lhasa). Résumé Le but de cette étude est d'éclaircir l'évolution géodynamique de la Thaïlande et, à partir de cela, d'étendre l'interprétation au reste de l'Asie du Sud-Est. La méthodologie utilisée est basée dans un premier temps sur du travail de terrain en Thaïlande du nord et dans l'extrême sud du Myanmar, en se basant sur une approche pluridisciplinaire. Dans un deuxième temps, la compilation et la réinterprétation de données préexistantes sur l'Asie du Sud-est la été faite, dans une optique basée sur la tectonique des plaques. Les principaux résultats de ce travail concernent la suture de Nan-Uttaradit, la « Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt» et la proposition d'une nouvelle localité pour la suture de la Paléotethys. Ceci a conduit à l'établissement d'un nouveau modèle pour l'évolution géodynamique de l'Asie du Sud-est, impliquant l'existence de nouveaux terranes (Orang Laut et Shan-Thai redéfini) et le rôle joué par le Paléopacifique dans le développement tectonique de la région. Le modèle présenté ici considère que la suture de la Paléotethys est située le long de la faille Tertiaire de Mae Yuam, qui représente la séparation entre le terrain Cimmérien de Sibumasu et le bloc de Shan-Thai, d'origine Indochinoise. Le terme Shan-Thai, anciennement utilise pour définir le bloc Cimmérien (quand la suture de la Paléotethys était considérée être représentée par la suture de Nan-Uttaradit), a été redéfini ici en maintenant sa localisation géographique dans les états Shan du Myanmar et la Thaïlande nord-centrale, mais en lui attribuant une origine Est Asiatique. Son détachement de l'Indochine est le résultat de l'ouverture du basin de Nan au Permien Inférieur. Le basin de Nan s'est fermé pendant le Trias Moyen, avant le dépôt de molasse Carnienne-Norienne. Les modalités de fermeture du basin invoquent une première phase d'obduction au Permien Moyen, suivie par une subduction finale vers l'est. La "Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt" consiste en des basaltes éparpillés qui ont mis en place au moins pendant le Viséen dans un contexte extensif intraplaque continental sur la partie de l'Indochine correspondant au bloc de Shan-Thai. L'âge Viséen a été établi sur la base de la datation de calcaires qui surmontent stratigraphiquement les basaltes. Dans plusieurs localités du continent Est Asiatique, des preuves d'extension plus ou moins contemporaines ont été retrouvées, ce qui implique l'existence d'une ou plusieurs phases d'extension au Carbonifère Inférieur a une échelle régionale. Ces événements sont attribués soit à la présence d'un plume mantellique, ou au rollback du Paléopacifique, qui subductait sous l'Indochine et la Chine Sud, soit les deux. Pendant le Permien inférieur, le Paléopacifique est responsable pour l'ouverture des basins d'arrière arc de Song Ma et Poko (Vietnam), induisant le détachement des Orang Laut Terranes (Est Vietnam, Ouest Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). La fermeture de la Paléotethys Orientale au Trias Supérieur/Jurassique Inférieur est considérée avoir eu lieu par subduction sous sa marge méridionale (Gondwana), à cause de l'absence de magmatisme d'arc sur sa marge nord (Indochinoise) et de la présence de volcanisme sur les blocs Cimmériens de Lhassa et Sibumasu (Mergui). Résumé large public L'histoire géologique de l'Asie du Sud-est depuis environ 430 millions d'années a été déterminée par les collisions successives de plusieurs continents les uns avec les autres. Il y a environ 430 millions d'années, au Silurien, un grand continent appelé Gondwana, a commencé à se «déchirer» sous l'effet des contraintes tectoniques qui le tiraient. Cette extension a provoqué la rupture du continent et l'ouverture d'un grand océan, appelé Paléotethys, éloignant les deux parties désormais séparées. C'est ainsi que le continent Est Asiatique, composé d'une partie de la Chine actuelle, de la Thaïlande, du Myanmar, de Sumatra, du Vietnam et de Bornéo a été entraîné avec le bord (marge) nord de la Paléotethys, qui s'ouvrait petit à petit. Durant le Carbonifère Supérieur, il y a environ 300 millions d'années, le sud du Gondwana subissait une glaciation, comme en témoigne le dépôt de sédiments glaciaires dans les couches de cet âge. Au même moment le continent Est Asiatique se trouvait à des latitudes tropicales ou équatoriales, ce qui permettait le dépôt de calcaires contenant différents fossiles de foraminifères d'eau chaude et de coraux. Durant le Permien Inférieur, il y a environ 295 millions d'années, la Paléotethys Orientale, qui était un relativement vieil océan avec une croûte froide et lourde, se refermait. La croûte océanique a commencé à s'enfoncer, au sud, sous le Gondwana. C'est ce que l'on appelle la subduction. Ainsi, le Gondwana s'est retrouvé en position de plaque supérieure, par rapport à la Paléotethys qui, elle, était en plaque inférieure. La plaque inférieure en subductant a commencé à reculer. Comme elle ne pouvait pas se désolidariser de la plaque supérieure, en reculant elle l'a tirée. C'est le phénomène du «roll-back ». Cette traction a eu pour effet de déchirer une nouvelle fois le Gondwana, ce qui a résulté en la création d'un nouvel Océan, la Neotethys. Cet Océan en s'ouvrant a déplacé une longue bande continentale que l'on appelle les blocs Cimmériens. La Paléotethys était donc en train de se fermer, la Neotethys de s'ouvrir, et entre deux les blocs Cimmériens se rapprochaient du Continent Est Asiatique. Pendant ce temps, le continent Est Asiatique était aussi soumis à des tensions tectoniques. L'Océan Paléopacifique, à l'est de celui-ci, était aussi en train de subducter. Cette subduction, par roll-back, a déchiré le continent en détachant une ligne de microcontinents appelés ici « Orang Laut Terranes », séparés du continent par deux océans d'arrière arc : Song Ma et Poko. Ceux-ci sont composés de Taiwan, Palawan, Bornéo ouest, Vietnam oriental, et la partie occidentale de Sumatra. Un autre Océan s'est ouvert pratiquement au même moment dans le continent Est Asiatique : l'Océan de Nan qui, en s'ouvrant, a détaché un microcontinent appelé Shan-Thai. La fermeture de l'Océan de Nan, il y a environ 230 millions d'années a resolidarisé Shan-Thai et le continent Est Asiatique et la trace de cet événement est aujourd'hui enregistrée dans la suture (la cicatrice de l'Océan) de Nan-Uttaradit. La cause de l'ouverture de l'Océan de Nan peut soit être due à la subduction du Paléopacifique, soit aux fait que la subduction de la Paléotethys tirait le continent Est Asiatique par le phénomène du « slab-pull », soit aux deux. La subduction du Paléopacifique avait déjà crée de l'extension dans le continent Est Asiatique durant le Carbonifère Inférieur (il y a environ 340-350 millions d'années) en créant des bassins et du volcanisme, aujourd'hui enregistré en différents endroits du continent, dont la ceinture volcanique de Chiang Mai, étudiée ici. A la fin du Trias, la Paléotethys se refermait complètement, et le bloc Cimmérien de Sibumasu entrait en collision avec le continent Est Asiatique. Comme c'est souvent le cas avec les grands océans, il n'y a pas de suture proprement dite, avec des fragments de croûte océanique, pour témoigner de cet évènement. Celui-ci est visible grâce à la différence entre les sédiments du Carbonifère Supérieur et du Permieñ Inférieur de chaque domaine : dans le domaine Cimmérien ils sont de type glaciaire alors que dans le continent Est Asiatique ils témoignent d'un climat tropical. Les océans de Song Ma et Poko se sont aussi refermés au Trias, mais eux ont laissé des sutures visibles

Geology of the Gander Group, Gander River Ultramafic Belt and Davidsville Group in the Jonathan's Pond - Weir's Pond Area, northeast Newfoundland /

The study area is situated in NE Newfoundland between Gander Lake and the north coast and on the boundary between the Gander and Botwood tectonostratigraphic zones (Williams et al., 1974). The area is underlain by three NE trending units; the Gander Group, the Gander River Ultramafic Belt (the GRUB) and the Davidsville Group. The easternmost Gander Group consists of a thick, psammitic unit composed predominantly of psammitic schist and a thinner, mixed unit of semipelitic and pelitic schist with minor psammite. The mixed unit may stratigraphically overlie the psammitic unit or be a lateral facies equivalent of the latter. No fossils have been recovered from the Gander Group. The GRUB is a terrain of mafic and ultramafic plutonic rocks with minor pillow lava and plagiogranite. It is interpreted to be a dismembered ophiolite in thrust contact with the Gander Group. The westernmost Davidsville Group consists of a basal conglomerate, believed deposited unconformably upon the GRUB from which it was derived, and an upper unit of greywacke and slate, mostly of turbidite origin, with minor limestone and calcareous sandstone. The limestone, which lies near the base of the unit, contains Upper Llanvirn to Lower Llandeilo fossils. The Gander and Davidsville Groups display distinctly different sedimentological , structural and metamorphic histories. The Gander Group consists of quartz-rich, relatively mature sediment. It has suffered three pre-Llanvirn deformations, of which the main deformation, Dp produced a major, NE-N-facing recumbent anticline in the southern part of the study area. Middle greenschist conditions existed from D^ to D- with growth of metamorphic minerals during each dynamic and static phase. In contrast, the mineralogically immature Davidsville Group sediment contains abundant mafic and ultramafic detritus which is absent from the Gander Group. The Davidsville Group displays the effects of a single penetrative deformation with localized D_ and D_ features, all of which can be shown to postdate D_ in the Gander Group. Rotation of the flat Gander S- into a subvertical orientation near the contact with the GRUB and the Davidsville Group is believed to be a Davidsville D^ feature. Regional metamorphism in the Davidsville Group is lower greenschist with a single growth phase, MS . These sedimentological, structural and metamorphic differences between the Gander and Davidsville Groups persist even where the GRUB is absent and the two units are in contact, indicating that the tectonic histories of the Gander and Davidsville Groups are distinctly different. Structural features in the GRUB, locally the result of multiple deformations, may be the result of Gander and/or Davidsville deformations. Metamorphism is in the greenschist facies. Geochemical analyses of the pillow lava suggest that these rocks were formed in a back-arc basin. Mafic intrusives in the Gander Group appear to be the result of magraatism separate from that producing the pillow lava. The Gander Group is interpreted to be a continental rise prism deposited on the eastern margin of the Late Precambrian-Lower Paleozoic lapetus Ocean. The GRUB, oceanic crust possibly formed in a marginal basin to the west, is believed to have been thrust eastward over the Gander Group, deforming the latter, during the pre-Llanvirnian, possibly Precambrian, Ganderian Orogeny. The Middle Ordovician and younger Davidsville Group was derived from, and deposited unconformably on, this deformed terrain. Deformation of the Davidsville Group occurred during the Middle Devonian Acadian Orogeny.

Regional variations of deformation mechanisms in the Lorrain Quartzite near Whitefish Falls, Ontario, Canada /

The quartzite microfabric found in the Lorrain Formation was studied across the La Cloche syncline, along a regional north-south transect along highway 6, near Whitefish Falls, Ontario. The complete stratigraphic sequence across the syncline is preserved, and is present on each fold limb. The lithostratigraphic units with the smallest grains size and lowest mica content are located close to the core of the fold, while coarser grained mica and feldspar rich units are situated at the northern and southern most extent of the transect. Deformation mechanisms vary with lithology and with position across the fold. Pressure solution appears to be the dominant deformation mechanism in the feldspathic, micaceous and ferruginous units. In the finer grained, mica poor white medium grained and cherty sandstone units, grain boundary migration (GBM) characteristics show dominance over those of pressure solution and show high amounts of fracturing which cut migrated boundaries and therefore post date GBM. All samples across the fold display a preferred orientation of quartz c-axes. The senses of asymmetry of fabrics are found to be similar across the syncline, with the exception of the ferruginous sandstone unit. Formation of these similar fabrics synmietries can not be the result of strain related to first order folding. The mica content appears to be related to the percentage of quartz lost due to pressure solution as a result of strain; the more mica present, the less quartz was lost. Calculations based on the shape of initial grains suggest that conservatively 30% of the quartz volume has been dissolved out of the Lorrain quartzite, and potentially migrated hundreds of meters to other members of the Huronian Supergroup as there was no meso or macroscopic evidence observed in outcrop.

Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models

Regional Differences in the Prediction of Extratropical Cyclones by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

A regional study of the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has been performed. An objective feature-tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast error statistics have then been produced for the position, intensity, and propagation speed of the storms. In previous work, data limitations meant it was only possible to present the diagnostics for the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) or Southern Hemisphere. A larger data sample has allowed the diagnostics to be computed separately for smaller regions around the globe and has made it possible to explore the regional differences in the prediction of storms by the EPS. Results show that in the NH there is a larger ensemble mean error in the position of storms over the Atlantic Ocean. Further analysis revealed that this is mainly due to errors in the prediction of storm propagation speed rather than in direction. Forecast storms propagate too slowly in all regions, but the bias is about 2 times as large in the NH Atlantic region. The results show that storm intensity is generally overpredicted over the ocean and underpredicted over the land and that the absolute error in intensity is larger over the ocean than over the land. In the NH, large errors occur in the prediction of the intensity of storms that originate as tropical cyclones but then move into the extratropics. The ensemble is underdispersive for the intensity of cyclones (i.e., the spread is smaller than the mean error) in all regions. The spatial patterns of the ensemble mean error and ensemble spread are very different for the intensity of cyclones. Spatial distributions of the ensemble mean error suggest that large errors occur during the growth phase of storm development, but this is not indicated by the spatial distributions of the ensemble spread. In the NH there are further differences. First, the large errors in the prediction of the intensity of cyclones that originate in the tropics are not indicated by the spread. Second, the ensemble mean error is larger over the Pacific Ocean than over the Atlantic, whereas the opposite is true for the spread. The use of a storm-tracking approach, to both weather forecasters and developers of forecast systems, is also discussed.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.