Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.

Deformation and crystallization of Zr-based amorphous alloys in homogeneous flow regime

The purpose of this study is to experimentally investigate the interaction of inelastic deformation and microstructural changes of two Zr-based bulk metallic glasses (BMGs): Zr41.25Ti13.75Cu12.5Ni10Be22.5 (commercially designated as Vitreloy 1 or Vit1) and Zr46.75Ti8.25Cu7.5Ni10Be27.5 (Vitreloy 4, Vit4). High-temperature uniaxial compression tests were performed on the two Zr alloys at various strain rates, followed by structural characterization using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Two distinct modes of mechanically induced atomic disordering in the two alloys were observed, with Vit1 featuring clear phase separation and crystallization after deformation as observed with TEM, while Vit4 showing only structural relaxation with no crystallization. The influence of the structural changes on the mechanical behaviors of the two materials was further investigated by jump-in-strain-rate tests, and flow softening was observed in Vit4. A free volume theory was applied to explain the deformation behaviors, and the activation volumes were calculated for both alloys.

Studies on BaO particles in nanosize regime

Barium oxide nanosize particles were prepared using the wet chemical route. Various capping agents were used to arrest the growth. X-ray diffraction studies reveal particle size as low as 9 Angstrom in diameter, which is close to the Bohr exciton radius of BaO. However, changes in the optical absorption features arising from the confinement effect in the nanosize regime were not observed. These results were confirmed by fluorescence measurements. The calculations based on effective mass approximations indicate that the quantum confinement effects are not significant for particle sizes as small as 15 Angstrom.

Influence of land use changes in river basins on diversity and distribution of amphibians

Land-use changes influence local biodiversity directly, and also cumulatively, contribute to regional and global changes in natural systems and quality of life. Consequent to these, direct impacts on the natural resources that support the health and integrity of living beings are evident in recent times. The Western Ghats being one of the global biodiversity hotspots, is reeling under a tremendous pressure from human induced changes in terms of developmental projects like hydel or thermal power plants, big dams, mining activities, unplanned agricultural practices,monoculture plantations, illegal timber logging, etc. This has led to the once contiguous forest habitats to be fragmented in patches, which in turn has led to the shrinkage of original habitat for the wildlife, change in the hydrological regime of the catchment, decreased inflow in streams,human-animal conflicts, etc. Under such circumstances, a proper management practice is called for requiring suitable biological indicators to show the impact of these changes, set priority regions and in developing models for conservation planning. Amphibians are regarded as one of the best biological indicators due to their sensitivity to even the slightest changes in the environment and hence they could be used as surrogates in conservation and management practices. They are the predominating vertebrates with a high degree of endemism (78%) in Western Ghats. The present study is an attempt to bring in the impacts of various land-uses on anuran distribution in three river basins. Sampling was carried out for amphibians during all seasons of 2003-2006 in basins of Sharavathi, Aghanashini and Bedthi. There are as many as 46 species in the region, one of which is new to science and nearly 59% of them are endemic to the Western Ghats. They belong to nine families, Dicroglossidae being represented by 14 species,followed by Rhacophoridae (9 species) and Ranidae (5 species). Species richness is high in Sharavathi river basin, with 36 species, followed by Bedthi 33 and Aghanashini 27. The impact of land-use changes, was investigated in the upper catchment of Sharavathi river basin. Species diversity indices, relative abundance values, percentage endemics gave clear indication of differences in each sub-catchment. Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) was calculated between species richness, endemics, environmental descriptors, land-use classes and fragmentation metrics. Principal component analysis was performed to depict the influence of these variables. Results show that sub-catchments with lesser percentage of forest, low canopy cover, higher amount of agricultural area, low rainfall have low species richness, less endemic species and abundant non-endemic species, whereas endemism, species richness and abundance of endemic species are more in the sub-catchments with high tree density, endemic trees, canopy cover, rainfall and lower amount of agriculture fields. This analysis aided in prioritising regions in the Sharavathi river basin for further conservation measures.

Crystallographic texture and microstructure evolution during hot compression of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy in the (alpha plus beta)-regime

Microstructure and texture are known to undergo drastic modifications due to trace hypoeutectic boron addition (similar to 0.1wt.%) for various titanium alloys e.g. Ti-6Al-4V. The deformation behaviour of such an alloy Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B is investigated in the (+) phase field and compared against that of the base alloy Ti-6Al-4V studied under selfsame conditions. The deformation microstructures for the two alloys display bending and kinking of lamellae in near and softening via globularization of lamella in near phase regimes, respectively. The transition temperature at which pure slip based deformation changes to softening is lower for the boron added alloy. The presence of TiB particles is largely held attributable for the early softening of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy. The compression texture of both the alloys carry signature of pure phase defamation at lower temperature and phase transformation near the transus temperature. Texture is influenced by a complex interplay of the deformation and transformation processes in the intermediate temperature range. The contribution from phase transformation is prominent for Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy at comparatively lower temperature.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Effects of flow regime on the young stages of salmonid fishes. Summary and conclusions based on results for 1981-1985

The main British salmonid species spawn in clean gravel in streams and rivers, many of them in the upland areas of Britain. The earliest stages of the life cycle (eggs and alevins) spend some months within the gravel of the river bed. During this period their survival rate can be strongly influenced by flow regime and by related phenomena such as movement of coarse river bed material, changes in water level and the deposition of silt. In recent years human influence upon the flow regimes of upland water courses and upon the sediment inputs to them has increased. In order to conserve and, if possible, enhance the populations of salmonid fishes a deeper understanding of the interrelationships between survival of young salmonids and flow-related phenomena is needed. The acquisition of appropriate information is the main aim of the present project, which included: Studies on silt movement and the infilling of gravel voids by fine sediments, together with initial studies on the relationship between intragravel oxygen supply rate and the survival of intragravel stages of salmonids; studies in the general field of egg washout. The latter investigated the physical background to gravel bed disruption, the examination of the physical characteristics of sites chosen for redds, dimensions of redds and burial depth of eggs relative to the size of the fish constructing the redd and a series of smaller studies on other aspects of egg washout.

Changes in catch rates and length and age at maturity, but not growth, of an estuarine plotosid (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) after heavy fishing

The hypothesis that heavy fishing pressure has led to changes in the biological characteristics of the estuary cobbler (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) was tested in a large seasonally open estuary in southwestern Australia, where this species completes its life cycle and is the most valuable commercial fish species. Comparisons were made between seasonal data collected for this plotosid (eeltail catfish) in Wilson Inlet during 2005–08 and those recorded with the same fishery-independent sampling regime during 1987–89. These comparisons show that the proportions of larger and older individuals and the catch rates in the more recent period were far lower, i.e., they constituted reductions of 40% for fish ≥430 mm total length, 62% for fish ≥4 years of age, and 80% for catch rate. In addition, total mortality and fishing-induced mortality estimates increased by factors of ~2 and 2.5, respectively. The indications that the abundance and proportion of older C. macrocephalus declined between the two periods are consistent with the perception of long-term commercial fishermen and their shift toward using a smaller maximum gill net mesh to target this species. The sustained heavy fishing pressure on C. macrocephalus between 1987–89 and 2005–08 was accompanied by a marked reduction in length and age at maturity of this species. The shift in probabilistic maturation reaction norms toward smaller fish in 2005–08 and the lack of a conspicuous change in growth between the two periods indicate that the maturity changes were related to fishery-induced evolution rather than to compensatory responses to reduced fish densities.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Fish for the poor under a rising global demand and changing fishery regime

In the past, agricultural researchers tended to ignore the fisheries factor in global food and nutritional security. However, the role of fish is becoming critical as a result of changes in fisheries regimes, income distribution, demand and increasing international trade. Fish has become the fastest growing food commodity in international trade and this is raising concern for the supply of fish for poorer people. As a result, the impact of international trade regimes on fish supply and demand, and the consequences on the availability of fish for developing countries need to be studied. Policies aimed at increasing export earnings are in conflict with those aimed at increasing food security in third world countries. Fisheries policy research will need to focus on three primary areas which have an impact on the marginal and poorer communities of developing countries: increased international demand for low-value fish on the supply of poorer countries; improved aquaculture technologies and productivity on poorer and marginal farmers; and land and water allocation policy on productivity, food security and sustainability across farm, fishery and related sectors. The key to local food security is in the integration of agriculture, aquaculture and natural resources but an important focus on fisheries policy research will be to look at the linkages between societal, economic and natural systems in order to develop adequate and flexible solutions to achieve sustainable use of aquatic resources systems.

Temporal Changes in a Tropical Nekton Assemblage and Performance of a Prawn Selective Gear

The temporal variation of components of a moderately diverse (H=1.46) tropical estuarine fish assemblage (long. 146°30'E, lat. 8°45'S) was directed by salinities that had been determined by local oceanographic and probably topographic conditions. For this assemblage, two types of intrayear component profiles are predicted. Pooled data (1988-91) reveal a large component of regular/resident species (43%) in an assemblage which has been under a narrow temperature regime «5T). These results facilitate a discussion on the relevance and usefulness of three hypotheses often cited in studies concerning species diversity and component characteristics of the subtropical/tropical coastal nonreef fish assemblages. Manifestations of the assemblage are reflected in catch composition and weights of 39 trials conducted for a selective prawning gear whose performance in bycatch reduction, mainly for finfishes, is judged by an index, E, we have previously proposed. This gear is capable of harvesting the prawn while conserving the demersal fish. Behavioral responses to netting of the prawns and the finfishes, especially the nearshore surface schoolers such as leiognathids, are discussed from several points of view. An adaptation in terms of group selection for leiognathids of their locking mechanism of median fin spines has been interpreted. For the purpose of bycatch reduction or E enhancement, suggestions for improvements in net design and trawl configuration by considering the behavioral features of fish are made. Our original formula of E is modified for general use. Bycatch problems in the regional prawn fisheries and their possible impacts on fishery planning and development in Papua New Guinea as a developing country are discussed. The gear tested may offer enormous ecological and economic benefits. The gear is multipurpose, extremely simple, and can also be used as a biological sampler.

EXPERIMENTS ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFT IN ENCLOSURES NEAR LAKE DIANCHI, CHINA

To discover how a lake converts from a turbid state to clean state, and what drives this process, we constructed controlled enclosure ecosystems and used the ecological remediation method to force ecosystems to convert from the turbid state to the clean state. Our results show that the driving forces include temperature., macrophyte, silver carp and mussel, which form a combined force to drive the controlled ecosystem to switch. There is a threshold existing in treated enclosure ecosystem during the conversion from turbid to clean state. When TP <0.09 mg.L-1, Chl-a <0.036 mg.L-1, transparency >62 cm, TN <2.15 mg.L-1, CODMn <13.7 mg.L-1, tubidity <10, and the number of algal cells <10(6) cells.L-1, the treated ecosystem changes sharply from turbid to clean state. The conversion process can be divided into three phases: turbid state, clean-turbid transitional state as well as clean state, and described with the power function Y = a*X-b (where Y is water parameter, X is time, a and b are constants), which indicates that the shift in the enclosure ecosystem from turbid to clean state is discontinuous.

WATER-QUALITY CHANGES AND EFFECTS ON FISH POPULATIONS IN THE HANJIANG RIVER, CHINA, FOLLOWING HYDROELECTRIC DAM CONSTRUCTION

Since its completion in 1973 the Danjiangkou Dam has markedly changed downstream flows, water levels, temperatures, sediment loads and other water quality characteristics in downstream reaches of the Hanjiang River. There have been changes in the growth, spawning behaviour and overwintering condition of local fish populations, in the composition and abundance of food organisms and in the composition of the commercial fish catch. Despite the changed environment and the absence of a fish pass, fish populations are still able to grow and spawn under the new regime. Where conditions are like those of the Hanjiang River, dams may not necessarily have calamitous consequences for fishery production.

Power law behavior of the isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime of heavy ion reactions

Isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime were studied with high-quality isotope identification, focusing on the intermediate mass fragments (IMFs) produced in semiviolent collisions. The yields were analyzed within the framework of a modified Fisher model. Using the ratio of the mass-dependent symmetry energy coefficient relative to the temperature, a(sym)/T, extracted in previous work and that of the pairing term, a(p)/T, extracted from this work, and assuming that both reflect secondary decay processes, the experimentally observed isotope yields were corrected for these effects. For a given I = N - Z value, the corrected yields of isotopes relative to the yield of C-12 show a power law distribution Y (N, Z)/Y(C-12) similar to A(-tau) in the mass range 1 <= A <= 30, and the distributions are almost identical for the different reactions studied. The observed power law distributions change systematically when I of the isotopes changes and the extracted tau value decreases from 3.9 to 1.0 as I increases from -1 to 3. These observations are well reproduced by a simple deexcitation model, with which the power law distribution of the primary isotopes is determined to be tau(prim) = 2.4 +/- 0.2, suggesting that the disassembling system at the time of the fragment formation is indeed at, or very near, the critical point.