Relevant Aspects on Teaching Probability and Statistics in Basic General Education

Probability and Statistics were included in the Basic General Education curricula by the Ministry of Public Education (Costa Rica), since 1995. To analyze the teaching reality in these fields, a research was conducted in two educational regions of the country: Heredia and Pérez Zeledón. The survey included university training and updating processes of teachers teaching Statistics and Probability in the schools. The research demonstrated the limited university training in these fields, the dissatisfaction of teachers about it, and the poor support of training institutions to their professional exercise.

Thermal and air quality modeling of an electric vehicle cabin with low-cost sensors and reinforcement learning

The design process of any electric vehicle system has to be oriented towards the best energy efficiency, together with the constraint of maintaining comfort in the vehicle cabin. Main aim of this study is to research the best thermal management solution in terms of HVAC efficiency without compromising occupant’s comfort and internal air quality. An Arduino controlled Low Cost System of Sensors was developed and compared against reference instrumentation (average R-squared of 0.92) and then used to characterise the vehicle cabin in real parking and driving conditions trials. Data on the energy use of the HVAC was retrieved from the car On-Board Diagnostic port. Energy savings using recirculation can reach 30 %, but pollutants concentration in the cabin builds up in this operating mode. Moreover, the temperature profile appeared strongly nonuniform with air temperature differences up to 10° C. Optimisation methods often require a high number of runs to find the optimal configuration of the system. Fast models proved to be beneficial for these task, while CFD-1D model are usually slower despite the higher level of detail provided. In this work, the collected dataset was used to train a fast ML model of both cabin and HVAC using linear regression. Average scaled RMSE over all trials is 0.4 %, while computation time is 0.0077 ms for each second of simulated time on a laptop computer. Finally, a reinforcement learning environment was built in OpenAI and Stable-Baselines3 using the built-in Proximal Policy Optimisation algorithm to update the policy and seek for the best compromise between comfort, air quality and energy reward terms. The learning curves show an oscillating behaviour overall, with only 2 experiments behaving as expected even if too slow. This result leaves large room for improvement, ranging from the reward function engineering to the expansion of the ML model.

Influence of different catilever extensions and glass or polyamaramid reinforcement fibers on fracture strength of implant-supported temporary

In long-term oral rehabilitation treatments, resistance of provisional crowns is a very important factor, especially in cases of an extensive edentulous distal space. The aim of this laboratorial study was to evaluate an acrylic resin cantilever-type prosthesis regarding the flexural strength of its in-balance portion as a function of its extension variation and reinforcement by two types of fibers (glass and polyaramid), considering that literature is not conclusive on this subject. Each specimen was composed by 3 total crowns at its mesial portion, each one attached to an implant component (abutment), while the distal portion (cantilever) had two crowns. Each specimen was constructed by injecting acrylic resin into a two-part silicone matrix placed on a metallic base. In each specimen, the crowns were fabricated with either acrylic resin (control group) or acrylic resin reinforced by glass (Fibrante, Angelus) or polyaramide (Kevlar 49, Du Pont) fibers. Compression load was applied on the cantilever, in a point located 7, 14 or 21 mm from the distal surface of the nearest crown with abutment, to simulate different extensions. The specimen was fixed on the metallic base and the force was applied until fracture in a universal test machine. Each one of the 9 sub-groups was composed by 10 specimens. Flexural strength means (in kgf) for the distances of 7, 14 and 21 mm were, respectively, 28.07, 8.27 and 6.39 for control group, 31.89, 9.18 and 5.16 for Kevlar 49 and 30.90, 9.31 and 6.86 for Fibrante. Data analysis ANOVA showed statistically significant difference (p<0.05) only regarding cantilever extension. Tukey's test detected significantly higher flexural strength for the 7 mm-distance, followed by 14 and 21 mm. Fracture was complete only on specimens of non-reinforced groups.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Perturbation expansions of multilocus fixation probabilities for frequency-dependent selection with applications to the Hill-Robertson effect and to the joint evolution of helping and punishment.

Natural populations are of finite size and organisms carry multilocus genotypes. There are, nevertheless, few results on multilocus models when both random genetic drift and natural selection affect the evolutionary dynamics. In this paper we describe a formalism to calculate systematic perturbation expansions of moments of allelic states around neutrality in populations of constant size. This allows us to evaluate multilocus fixation probabilities (long-term limits of the moments) under arbitrary strength of selection and gene action. We show that such fixation probabilities can be expressed in terms of selection coefficients weighted by mean first passages times of ancestral gene lineages within a single ancestor. These passage times extend the coalescence times that weight selection coefficients in one-locus perturbation formulas for fixation probabilities. We then apply these results to investigate the Hill-Robertson effect and the coevolution of helping and punishment. Finally, we discuss limitations and strengths of the perturbation approach. In particular, it provides accurate approximations for fixation probabilities for weak selection regimes only (Ns < or = 1), but it provides generally good prediction for the direction of selection under frequency-dependent selection.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

Innovative Solutions for Slope Stability Reinforcement and Characterization: Vol. I, TR-489, 2005

Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. Characterization of slope failures is complicated, because the factors affecting slope stability can be difficult to discern and measure, particularly soil shear strength parameters. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this research consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. The current research focuses on applying an infrequently-used testing technique comprised of the Borehole Shear Test (BST). This in-situ test rapidly provides effective (i.e., drained) shear strength parameter values of soil. Using the BST device, fifteen Iowa slopes (fourteen failures and one proposed slope) were investigated and documented. Particular attention was paid to highly weathered shale and glacial till soil deposits, which have both been associated with slope failures in the southern Iowa drift region. Conventional laboratory tests including direct shear tests, triaxial compression tests, and ring shear tests were also performed on undisturbed and reconstituted soil samples to supplement BST results. The shear strength measurements were incorporated into complete evaluations of slope stability using both limit equilibrium and probabilistic analyses. The research methods and findings of these investigations are summarized in Volume 1 of this report. Research details of the independent characterization and reinforcement investigations are provided in Volumes 2 and 3, respectively. Combined, the field investigations offer guidance on identifying the factors that affect slope stability at a particular location and also on designing slope reinforcement using pile elements for cases where remedial measures are necessary. The research findings are expected to benefit civil and geotechnical engineers of government transportation agencies, consultants, and contractors dealing with slope stability, slope remediation, and geotechnical testing in Iowa.

Innovative Solutions for Slope Stability Reinforcement and Characterization: Vol. II, TR-489, 2005

Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this current research study consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. While Volume I summarizes the research methods and findings of this study, Volume II provides procedural details for incorporating an infrequently-used testing technique, borehole shear tests, into practice. Fifteen slopes along Iowa highways were investigated, including thirteen slides (failed slopes), one unfailed slope, and one proposed embankment slope (the Sugar Creek Project). The slopes are mainly comprised of either clay shale or glacial till, and are generally gentle and of small scale, with slope angle ranging from 11 deg to 23 deg and height ranging from 6 to 23 m. Extensive field investigations and laboratory tests were performed for each slope. Field investigations included survey of slope geometry, borehole drilling, soil sampling, in-situ Borehole Shear Testing (BST) and ground water table measurement. Laboratory investigations mainly comprised of ring shear tests, soil basic property tests (grain size analysis and Atterberg limits test), mineralogy analyses, soil classifications, and natural water contents and density measurements on the representative soil samples from each slope. Extensive direct shear tests and a few triaxial compression tests and unconfined compression tests were also performed on undisturbed soil samples for the Sugar Creek Project. Based on the results of field and lab investigations, slope stability analysis was performed on each of the slopes to determine the possible factors resulting in the slope failures or to evaluate the potential slope instabilities using limit equilibrium methods. Deterministic slope analyses were performed for all the slopes. Probabilistic slope analysis and sensitivity study were also performed for the slope of the Sugar Creek Project. Results indicate that while the in-situ test rapidly provides effective shear strength parameters of soils, some training may be required for effective and appropriate use of the BST. Also, it is primarily intended to test cohesive soils and can produce erroneous results in gravelly soils. Additionally, the quality of boreholes affects test results, and disturbance to borehole walls should be minimized before test performance. A final limitation of widespread borehole shear testing may be its limited availability, as only about four to six test devices are currently being used in Iowa. Based on the data gathered in the field testing, reinforcement investigations are continued in Volume III.

Incident Hepatitis C Virus Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study : changes in treatment uptake and outcomes between 1991 and 2013

Background: The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is evolving rapidly in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We aimed to describe changes in treatment uptake and outcomes of incident HCV infections before and after 2006, the time-point at which major changes in HCV epidemic became apparent. Methods.  We included all adults with an incident HCV infection before June 2012 in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a prospective nationwide representative cohort of individuals infected with HIV. We assessed the following outcomes by time period: the proportion of patients starting an HCV therapy, the proportion of treated patients achieving a sustained virological response (SVR), and the proportion of patients with persistent HCV infection during follow-up. Results.  Of 193 patients with an HCV seroconversion, 106 were diagnosed before and 87 after January 2006. The proportion of men who have sex with men increased from 24% before to 85% after 2006 (P < .001). Hepatitis C virus treatment uptake increased from 33% before 2006 to 77% after 2006 (P < .001). Treatment was started during early infection in 22% of patients before and 91% after 2006 (P < .001). An SVR was achieved in 78% and 29% (P = .01) of patients treated during early and chronic HCV infection. The probability of having a detectable viral load 5 years after diagnosis was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.77) in the group diagnosed before 2006 and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.16-0.35) in the other group (P < .001). Conclusions. In recent years, increased uptake and earlier initiation of HCV therapy among patients with incident infections significantly reduced the proportion of patients with replicating HCV.

The use of early lactation milk protein content to predict subsequent fertility performance and likelihood of culling, in commercial dairy cows

A dataset of 1,846,990 completed lactation record,; was created Using milk recording data from 8,967 commercial dairy farms in the United Kingdom over a five year period. Herd-specific lactation curves describing levels of milk, Cat and protein by lactation number and month of calving were generated for each farm. The actual yield of milk and protein proportion at the first milk recording of individual cow lactations were compared with the levels taken from the lactation curves. Logistic regression analysis showed that cows production milk with a lower percentage of protein than average had a significantly lower probability of being in-calf at 100 days post calving and it significantly higher probability of being culled at the end of lactation. The culling rates derived from the studied database demonstrate the current high wastage rate of commercial dairy cows. Well of this wastage is due to involuntary culling as a result of reproductive failure.

Virologic failure and second-line antiretroviral therapy in children in South Africa--the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

Background: With expanding pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, children will begin to experience treatment failure and require second-line therapy. We evaluated the probability and determinants of virologic failure and switching in children in South Africa. Methods: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from children who initiated ART in 7 South African treatment programs with 6-monthly viral load and CD4 monitoring produced Kaplan-Meier estimates of probability of virologic failure (2 consecutive unsuppressed viral loads with the second being >1000 copies/mL, after ≥24 weeks of therapy) and switch to second-line. Cox-proportional hazards models stratified by program were used to determine predictors of these outcomes. Results: The 3-year probability of virologic failure among 5485 children was 19.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.6 to 21.1). Use of nevirapine or ritonavir alone in the initial regimen (compared with efavirenz) and exposure to prevention of mother to child transmission regimens were independently associated with failure [adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.77 (1.11 to 2.83), 2.39 (1.57 to 3.64) and 1.40 (1.02 to 1.92), respectively]. Among 252 children with ≥1 year follow-up after failure, 38% were switched to second-line. Median (interquartile range) months between failure and switch was 5.7 (2.9-11.0). Conclusions: Triple ART based on nevirapine or ritonavir as a single protease inhibitor seems to be associated with a higher risk of virologic failure. A low proportion of virologically failing children were switched.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Incident Hepatitis C Virus Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: Changes in Treatment Uptake and Outcomes Between 1991 and 2013.

Background.  The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is evolving rapidly in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We aimed to describe changes in treatment uptake and outcomes of incident HCV infections before and after 2006, the time-point at which major changes in HCV epidemic became apparent. Methods.  We included all adults with an incident HCV infection before June 2012 in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a prospective nationwide representative cohort of individuals infected with HIV. We assessed the following outcomes by time period: the proportion of patients starting an HCV therapy, the proportion of treated patients achieving a sustained virological response (SVR), and the proportion of patients with persistent HCV infection during follow-up. Results.  Of 193 patients with an HCV seroconversion, 106 were diagnosed before and 87 after January 2006. The proportion of men who have sex with men increased from 24% before to 85% after 2006 (P < .001). Hepatitis C virus treatment uptake increased from 33% before 2006 to 77% after 2006 (P < .001). Treatment was started during early infection in 22% of patients before and 91% after 2006 (P < .001). An SVR was achieved in 78% and 29% (P = .01) of patients treated during early and chronic HCV infection. The probability of having a detectable viral load 5 years after diagnosis was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.77) in the group diagnosed before 2006 and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.16-0.35) in the other group (P < .001). Conclusions.  In recent years, increased uptake and earlier initiation of HCV therapy among patients with incident infections significantly reduced the proportion of patients with replicating HCV.

An examination of the relationship between maternal and neighborhood-level characteristics and intrauterine growth retardation in Harris County, Texas, 1999--2001

The persistence of low birth weight and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the United States has puzzled researchers for decades. Much of the work that has been conducted on adverse birth outcomes has focused on low birth weight in general and not on IUGR. Studies that have examined IUGR specifically thus far have focused primarily on individual-level maternal risk factors. These risk factors have only been able to explain a small portion of the variance in IUGR. Therefore, recent work has begun to focus on community-level risk factors in addition to the individual-level maternal characteristics. This study uses Social Ecology to examine the relationship of individual and community-level risk factors and IUGR. Logistic regression was used to establish an individual-level model based on 155, 856 births recorded in Harris County, TX during 1999-2001. IUGR was characterized using a fetal growth ratio method with race/ethnic and sex specific mean birth weights calculated from national vital records. The spatial distributions of 114,460 birth records spatially located within the City of Houston were examined using choropleth, probability and density maps. Census tracts with higher than expected rates of IUGR and high levels of neighborhood disadvantage were highlighted. Neighborhood disadvantage was constructed using socioeconomic variables from the 2000 U.S. Census. Factor analysis was used to create a unified single measure. Lastly, a random coefficients model was used to examine the relationship between varying levels of community disadvantage, given the set of individual-level risk factors for 152,997 birth records spatially located within Harris County, TX. Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using three different indices adapted from previous work. The findings show that pregnancy-induced hypertension, previous preterm infant, tobacco use and insufficient weight gain have the highest association with IUGR. Neighborhood disadvantage only slightly further increases the risk of IUGR (OR 1.12 to 1.23). Although community level disadvantage only helped to explain a small proportion of the variance of IUGR, it did have a significant impact. This finding suggests that community level risk factors should be included in future work with IUGR and that more work needs to be conducted. ^

Innovation and export performance:evidence from UK and German manufacturing plants

Using comparable plant-level surveys we demonstrate significant differences between the determinants of export performance among the UK and German manufacturing plants. Product innovation, however measured, has a strong effect on the probability and propensity to export in both countries. Being innovative is positively related to export probability in both countries. In the UK the scale of plants’ innovation activity is also related positively to export propensity. In Germany, however, where levels of innovation intensity are higher but the proportion of sales attributable to new products is lower, there is some evidence of a negative relationship between the scale of innovation activity and export performance. Significant differences are identified between innovative and non-innovative plants, especially in their absorption of spill-over effects. Innovative UK plants are more effective in their ability to exploit spill-overs from the innovation activities of companies in the same sector. In Germany, by contrast, non-innovators are more likely to absorb regional and supply-chain spill-over effects. Co-location to other innovative firms is generally found to discourage exporting.