Time-variations in commodity price jumps

In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

Análises estatísticas em redes complexas: propriedades topológicas, críticas e dinâmicas

In this thesis, we address two issues of broad conceptual and practical relevance in the study of complex networks. The first is associated with the topological characterization of networks while the second relates to dynamical processes that occur on top of them. Regarding the first line of study, we initially designed a model for networks growth where preferential attachment includes: (i) connectivity and (ii) homophily (links between sites with similar characteristics are more likely). From this, we observe that the competition between these two aspects leads to a heterogeneous pattern of connections with the topological properties of the network showing quite interesting results. In particular, we emphasize that there is a region where the characteristics of sites play an important role not only for the rate at which they get links, but also for the number of connections which occur between sites with similar and dissimilar characteristics. Finally, we investigate the spread of epidemics on the network topology developed, whereas its dissemination follows the rules of the contact process. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the competition between states (infected/healthy) sites, induces a transition between an active phase (presence of sick) and an inactive (no sick). In this context, we estimate the critical point of the transition phase through the cumulant Binder and ratio between moments of the order parameter. Then, using finite size scaling analysis, we determine the critical exponents associated with this transition

Hypervitaminosis A-induced hepatic fibrosis in a cat

Rationale: The excessive intake of vitamin A in the form of vitamin concentrate, supplement or vitamin-rich liver can result in hypervitaminosis A in man and animals. Although osteopathologies resulting from chronic vitamin A intoxication in cats are well characterized, no information is available concerning feline hypervitaminosis A-induced liver disease. Clinical summary: We report the first case of hepatic stellate cell lipidosis and hepatic fibrosis in a domestic cat that had been fed a diet based on raw beef liver. Radiographic examination revealed exostoses and ankylosis between vertebrae C1 and T7, compatible with deforming cervical spondylosis. Necropsy showed a slightly enlarged and light yellow to bronze liver. Microscopic and ultrastructural analyses of liver tissues revealed diffuse and severe liver fibrosis associated with hepatic stellate cell hyperplasia and hypertrophy. These cells showed immunopositive staining for α-smooth muscle actin and desmin markers. The necropsy findings of chronic liver disease coupled with osteopathology supported the diagnosis of hypervitaminosis A. Practical relevance: As in human hepatology, if there is dietary evidence to support increased intake of vitamin A, then hypervitaminosis A should be considered in the differential diagnosis of chronic liver disease in cats.

Mycobacterium microti infection in the cat: a case report, literature review and recent clinical experience

OVERVIEW: Mycobacterium microti infection is infrequently described in cats in the veterinary literature. It can be one of a large number of possible differential diagnoses in a feline patient with dermal nodules and non-healing draining ulcers, and can occasionally spread to involve the lungs and/or other areas of the body. CASE SUMMARY: This report describes the clinical signs, eventual diagnosis and variable response to treatment in a cat in Switzerland with recurrent cutaneous M microti infection. Only after several diagnostic and therapeutic attempts, over more than 2 years, was the species of Mycobacterium finally identified and targeted therapy given. PRACTICAL RELEVANCE: For any cat in which there is even a low suspicion of mycobacterial infection, the authors recommend that an aggressive diagnostic approach is taken. Tissue specimens should be collected and frozen early on, and, as soon as acid-fast bacilli are detected, samples should be sent to a mycobacterial reference laboratory for definitive identification. LITERATURE REVIEW: A review of the literature relating to the aetiopathogenesis, diagnosis and management of M microti infection in cats and dogs is included. This is supplemented with clinical and therapeutic experience gained from this case and other, unpublished cases managed over the past 15 years by one of the authors (DGM).

A unifying approach for haplotype analysis of quantitative traits in family-based association studies: Testing and estimating gene-environment interactions with complex exposure variables

We propose robust and e±cient tests and estimators for gene-environment/gene-drug interactions in family-based association studies. The methodology is designed for studies in which haplotypes, quantitative pheno- types and complex exposure/treatment variables are analyzed. Using causal inference methodology, we derive family-based association tests and estimators for the genetic main effects and the interactions. The tests and estimators are robust against population admixture and strati¯cation without requiring adjustment for confounding variables. We illustrate the practical relevance of our approach by an application to a COPD study. The data analysis suggests a gene-environment interaction between a SNP in the Serpine gene and smok- ing status/pack years of smoking that reduces the FEV1 volume by about 0.02 liter per pack year of smoking. Simulation studies show that the pro- posed methodology is su±ciently powered for realistic sample sizes and that it provides valid tests and effect size estimators in the presence of admixture and stratification.

Dynamische Standsicherheit von Portalstaplern

Der Artikel beschreibt die Untersuchung der dynamischen Standsicherheit von Portalstaplern. Dazu wurde ein aktueller repräsentativer Portalstapler analysiert und in ein Mehrkörper-Simulationsmodell abgebildet. Die Validierung des Modells erfolgte auf Basis von Messfahrten am realen System. Aus den durchgeführten Simulationsstudien wurden technische Verbesserungsmaßnahmen abgeleitet, welche die dynamische Standsicherheit von Portalstaplern erhöhen.

Durch das Leben lernen

Web 2.0 und soziale Netzwerke gaben erste Impulse für neue Formen der Online-Lehre, welche die umfassende Vernetzung von Objekten und Nutzern im Internet nachhaltig einsetzen. Die Vielfältigkeit der unterschiedlichen Systeme erschwert aber deren ganzheitliche Nutzung in einem umfassenden Lernszenario, das den Anforderungen der modernen Informationsgesellschaft genügt. In diesem Beitrag wird eine auf dem Konnektivismus basierende Plattform für die Online-Lehre namens “Wiki-Learnia” präsentiert, welche alle wesentlichen Abschnitte des lebenslangen Lernens abbildet. Unter Einsatz zeitgemäßer Technologien werden nicht nur Nutzer untereinander verbunden, sondern auch Nutzer mit dedizierten Inhalten sowie ggf. zugehörigen Autoren und/oder Tutoren verknüpft. Für ersteres werden verschiedene Kommunikations-Werkzeuge des Web 2.0 (soziale Netzwerke, Chats, Foren etc.) eingesetzt. Letzteres fußt auf dem sogenannten “Learning-Hub”-Ansatz, welcher mit Hilfe von Web-3.0-Mechanismen insbesondere durch eine semantische Metasuchmaschine instrumentiert wird. Zum Aufzeigen der praktischen Relevanz des Ansatzes wird das mediengestützte Juniorstudium der Universität Rostock vorgestellt, ein Projekt, das Schüler der Abiturstufe aufs Studium vorbereitet. Anhand der speziellen Anforderungen dieses Vorhabens werden der enorme Funktionsumfang und die große Flexibilität von Wiki-Learnia demonstriert.

Learning through life

Web 2.0 und soziale Netzwerke gaben erste Impulse für neue Formen der Online-Lehre, welche die umfassende Vernetzung von Objekten und Nutzern im Internet nachhaltig einsetzen. Die Vielfältigkeit der unterschiedlichen Systeme erschwert aber deren ganzheitliche Nutzung in einem umfassenden Lernszenario, das den Anforderungen der modernen Informationsgesellschaft genügt. In diesem Beitrag wird eine auf dem Konnektivismus basierende Plattform für die Online-Lehre namens “Wiki-Learnia” präsentiert, welche alle wesentlichen Abschnitte des lebenslangen Lernens abbildet. Unter Einsatz zeitgemäßer Technologien werden nicht nur Nutzer untereinander verbunden, sondern auch Nutzer mit dedizierten Inhalten sowie ggf. zugehörigen Autoren und/oder Tutoren verknüpft. Für ersteres werden verschiedene Kommunikations-Werkzeuge des Web 2.0 (soziale Netzwerke, Chats, Foren etc.) eingesetzt. Letzteres fußt auf dem sogenannten “Learning-Hub”-Ansatz, welcher mit Hilfe von Web-3.0-Mechanismen insbesondere durch eine semantische Metasuchmaschine instrumentiert wird. Zum Aufzeigen der praktischen Relevanz des Ansatzes wird das mediengestützte Juniorstudium der Universität Rostock vorgestellt, ein Projekt, das Schüler der Abiturstufe aufs Studium vorbereitet. Anhand der speziellen Anforderungen dieses Vorhabens werden der enorme Funktionsumfang und die große Flexibilität von Wiki-Learnia demonstriert.

Does culture really matter in sports participation? The impact of socio-cultural factors on sports behaviour in Switzerland

The physical activity of the Swiss population differs considerably depending on the linguistic region. German speakers are more often physically active than people living in the French or Italian-speaking part of Switzerland (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2011). This study analyses how socio-cultural factors correlate with sports participation for adolescents and young adults. In order to analyse this research question, Bourdieu’s concept of habitus (1984) has been adapted and used as a theoretical background. This sport-related concept of habitus considers culturally determined values, the attribution of meaning and patterns of action such as the understanding of sports, the importance of sports, body, health or leisure. On this basis, the sport-related habitus and the practical relevance of sports participation has been empirically reconstructed for adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 25 through a qualitative study including guideline-based interviews with German (n=6) and French (n=4) speaking adolescents and young adults, as well as a quantitative survey in a German (n=106) and a French (n=99) speaking commune of Switzerland. Initial findings reveal that young German speakers associate sports with self-discipline (χ²(1, N=205)= 8.223, p<.005, V=.200) and fitness (χ²(1, N=205)= 21.989, p<.005, V=.328) whereas young French speakers are more likely to relate health (χ²(1, N=205)= 9.455, p<.005, V=.215), effort and perspiration (χ²(1, N=205)= 18.835, p<.005, V=.303) to sports. Similarly, the understanding of body and health as well as the attitude towards leisure differs between the German and French speaking parts of Switzerland. This study illustrates that the concept of sports habitus is culturally shaped and therefore may be fruitful in further analyses. Bourdieu, P. (1984). Distinction. A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Stamm, H. & Lamprecht, M. (2008). Swiss sports participation in an international perspective. European Journal for Sport and Society, 8 (1+2), 15-29.

An assertion language for constraint logic programs

In an advanced program development environment, such as that discussed in the introduction of this book, several tools may coexist which handle both the program and information on the program in different ways. Also, these tools may interact among themselves and with the user. Thus, the different tools and the user need some way to communicate. It is our design principie that such communication be performed in terms of assertions. Assertions are syntactic objects which allow expressing properties of programs. Several assertion languages have been used in the past in different contexts, mainly related to program debugging. In this chapter we propose a general language of assertions which is used in different tools for validation and debugging of constraint logic programs in the context of the DiSCiPl project. The assertion language proposed is parametric w.r.t. the particular constraint domain and properties of interest being used in each different tool. The language proposed is quite general in that it poses few restrictions on the kind of properties which may be expressed. We believe the assertion language we propose is of practical relevance and appropriate for the different uses required in the tools considered.

Source terms for calculations of vaporizing and burning fuel sprays with non-unity Lewis numbers in gases with temperature-dependent thermal conductivities

Liquid-fueled burners are used in a number of propulsion devices ranging from internal combustion engines to gas turbines. The structure of spray flames is quite complex and involves a wide range of time and spatial scales in both premixed and non-premixed modes (Williams 1965; Luo et al. 2011). A number of spray-combustion regimes can be observed experimentally in canonical scenarios of practical relevance such as counterflow diffusion flames (Li 1997), as sketched in figure 1, and for which different microscalemodelling strategies are needed. In this study, source terms for the conservation equations are calculated for heating, vaporizing and burning sprays in the single-droplet combustion regime. The present analysis provides extended formulation for source terms, which include non-unity Lewis numbers and variable thermal conductivities.

A retro-inverso peptide corresponding to the GH loop of foot-and-mouth disease virus elicits high levels of long-lasting protective neutralizing antibodies

Peptides corresponding to the immunodominant loop located at residues 135–158 on capsid protein VP1 of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) generally elicit high levels of anti-peptide and virus-neutralizing antibodies. In some instances, however, the level of neutralizing antibodies is low or even negligible, even though the level of anti-peptide antibodies is high. We have shown previously that the antigenic activity of peptide 141–159 of VP1 of a variant of serotype A can be mimicked by a retro-inverso (all-d retro or retroenantio) peptide analogue. This retro-inverso analogue induced greater and longer-lasting antibody titers than did the corresponding l-peptide. We now show that a single inoculation of the retro-inverso analogue elicits high levels of neutralizing antibodies that persist longer than those induced against the corresponding l-peptide and confer substantial protection in guinea pigs challenged with the cognate virus. In view of the high stability to proteases of retro-inverso peptide analogues and their enhanced immunogenicity, these results have practical relevance in designing potential peptide vaccines.

Grouping genetic operators for the delineation of functional areas based on spatial interaction

The delineation of functional economic areas, or market areas, is a problem of high practical relevance, since the delineation of functional sets such as economic areas in the US, Travel-to-Work Areas in the United Kingdom, and their counterparts in other OECD countries are the basis of many statistical operations and policy making decisions at local level. This is a combinatorial optimisation problem defined as the partition of a given set of indivisible spatial units (covering a territory) into regions characterised by being (a) self-contained and (b) cohesive, in terms of spatial interaction data (flows, relationships). Usually, each region must reach a minimum size and self-containment level, and must be continuous. Although these optimisation problems have been typically solved through greedy methods, a recent strand of the literature in this field has been concerned with the use of evolutionary algorithms with ad hoc operators. Although these algorithms have proved to be successful in improving the results of some of the more widely applied official procedures, they are so time consuming that cannot be applied directly to solve real-world problems. In this paper we propose a new set of group-based mutation operators, featuring general operations over disjoint groups, tailored to ensure that all the constraints are respected during the operation to improve efficiency. A comparative analysis of our results with those from previous approaches shows that the proposed algorithm systematically improves them in terms of both quality and processing time, something of crucial relevance since it allows dealing with most large, real-world problems in reasonable time.

Límites a la interpretación dinámica de los convenios de doble imposición internacional: el caso ING

El presente trabajo contiene algunas reflexiones críticas sobre el valor hermenéutico de los Comentarios al Convenio Modelo de la OCDE y su interpretación dinámica, más o menos matizada, al hilo de la Sentencia de la Audiencia Nacional de 10 de julio de 2015, dictada en el Caso ING. La interpretación de los convenios de doble imposición internacional ha concitado desde antiguo posturas encontradas tanto en el plano doctrinal como jurisprudencial; discusión que cobra hoy renovada importancia en relación con el soft law en general, y las recomendaciones del Proyecto BEPS de la OCDE, en particular.

Mapping Statistics on Loss of Nationality in the EU: A new online database. CEPS Liberty and Security in Europe No. 76/December 2014

Statistics can be useful when assessing the practical relevance of varying rules and practices on the involuntary loss of nationality across EU member states. Yet while much progress has been made within the EU in recent years with regard to the collection of comparable and reliable information on the acquisition of nationality, statistics on the loss of nationality are hard to find and, where available, difficult to interpret. In this comparative report, the authors explore the landscape of existing statistical data on loss of nationality in the European Union. They identify challenges to the existing methods of data collection and data interpretation and introduce an online statistical database, bringing together all existing statistical data on loss of nationality in the EU. These data are summarised in tables and graphs and discussed with reference to the relevant national and European sources. The authors conclude with recommendations to policy-makers on how to improve data collection in this area.