The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: an application to US cities

This article provides a fresh methodological and empirical approach for assessing price level convergence and its relation to purchasing power parity (PPP) using annual price data for seventeen US cities. We suggest a new procedure that can handle a wide range of PPP concepts in the presence of multiple structural breaks using all possible pairs of real exchange rates. To deal with cross-sectional dependence, we use both cross-sectional demeaned data and a parametric bootstrap approach. In general, we find more evidence for stationarity when the parity restriction is not imposed, while imposing parity restriction provides leads toward the rejection of the panel stationar- ity. Our results can be embedded on the view of the Balassa-Samuelson approach, but where the slope of the time trend is allowed to change in the long-run. The median half-life point estimate are found to be lower than the consensus view regardless of the parity restriction.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Assessing the viability of power-supply systems: a tentative protocol

This Technical Report presents a tentative protocol used to assess the viability of powersupply systems. The viability of power-supply systems can be assessed by looking at the production factors (e.g. paid labor, power capacity, fossil-fuels) – needed for the system to operate and maintain itself – in relation to the internal constraints set by the energetic metabolism of societies. In fact, by using this protocol it becomes possible to link assessments of technical coefficients performed at the level of the power-supply systems with assessments of benchmark values performed at the societal level throughout the relevant different sectors. In particular, the example provided here in the case of France for the year 2009 makes it possible to see that in fact nuclear energy is not viable in terms of labor requirements (both direct and indirect inputs) as well as in terms of requirements of power capacity, especially when including reprocessing operations.

Fragmentation of massive dense cores down to <~ 1000 AU: relation between fragmentation and density structure

In order to shed light on the main physical processes controlling fragmentation of massive dense cores, we present a uniform study of the density structure of 19 massive dense cores, selected to be at similar evolutionary stages, for which their relative fragmentation level was assessed in a previous work. We inferred the density structure of the 19 cores through a simultaneous fit of the radial intensity profiles at 450 and 850 μm (or 1.2 mm in two cases) and the spectral energy distribution, assuming spherical symmetry and that the density and temperature of the cores decrease with radius following power-laws. Even though the estimated fragmentation level is strictly speaking a lower limit, its relative value is significant and several trends could be explored with our data. We find a weak (inverse) trend of fragmentation level and density power-law index, with steeper density profiles tending to show lower fragmentation, and vice versa. In addition, we find a trend of fragmentation increasing with density within a given radius, which arises from a combination of flat density profile and high central density and is consistent with Jeans fragmentation. We considered the effects of rotational-to-gravitational energy ratio, non-thermal velocity dispersion, and turbulence mode on the density structure of the cores, and found that compressive turbulence seems to yield higher central densities. Finally, a possible explanation for the origin of cores with concentrated density profiles, which are the cores showing no fragmentation, could be related with a strong magnetic field, consistent with the outcome of radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

Asymmetrical balance of power in preadolescents' mutual friendships

Dyadic friendShip' asymmetry was examined in relation to gender, friendship quality, and friendship status. Sixty-nine grade five children and their mutual, same-sex, friends participated in a laboratory session comprised ofvarious activities and completed questionnaires to identify mutual friends and evaluate friendship quality. Asymmetry of power was assessed observationally during an origami task. Variations in balance of power were evident in children's friendships. Boys' dyads had significantly greater levels of asymmetry than girls' dyads. Regardless of gender, asymmetry was associated with lower friendship quality, particularly as indexed by validation and caring and conflict resolution. Asymmetry was unrelated to differences in friendship status. Furthermore, relative individual power within the friendship was not related to individual perceptions offriendship quality. The implications ofthese findings in the theoretical and empirical literature were considered and suggestions for future research were made.

Consommation de cannabis et symptômes dépressifs à l'adolescence : le rôle modérateur de la qualité de la relation parent-adolescent

La dépression est une psychopathologie répandue qui débute fréquemment au cours de l’adolescence. Maintes répercussions tant personnelles qu’économiques et sociales ont été associées à ce trouble. Plusieurs facteurs, dont la consommation de cannabis, ont été identifiés comme étant susceptibles d’influencer l’apparition et le développement de symptômes dépressifs. Il existe toutefois une absence de consensus par rapport au lien entre la consommation de cannabis et les symptômes dépressifs à l’adolescence, qui pourrait notamment résulter de différences méthodologiques telles que le contrôle de tierces variables. Parmi ces variables, la relation parent-adolescent pourrait modérer la relation entre la consommation de cannabis et les symptômes dépressifs. Ce mémoire vise d’une part à vérifier la relation entre la consommation de cannabis et la manifestation de symptômes dépressifs à l’adolescence et, d’autre part, le rôle modérateur de la relation parent-adolescent sur ce lien. L’échantillon compte 1 740 adolescents québécois suivis longitudinalement du secondaire II au secondaire IV. Des analyses de régression multiple hiérarchique ont été effectuées afin de tester les hypothèses à l’étude. Les résultats démontrent une faible relation positive entre la consommation de cannabis en secondaire II et les symptômes dépressifs évalués deux ans plus tard. Par ailleurs, une seule dimension de la relation parent-adolescent, soit le faible soutien parental, a été identifiée comme ayant un pouvoir prédictif sur les symptômes dépressifs. Cet effet d’interaction explique néanmoins une variance insuffisante pour être significatif d’un point de vue clinique. Les implications de ces résultats pour la recherche sont discutées.

Le dispositif institutionnel et la relation thérapeutique en salle d'accouchement : entre le risque, le savoir hégémonique et les rapports de pouvoir.

Ce mémoire vise à établir la complexité de la relation thérapeutique entre l’infirmière et le couple en salle d’accouchement. Sachant que la relation thérapeutique est essentielle à la réussite du processus de soins, sa conceptualisation demeure primordiale pour une meilleure compréhension de son impact et pour mener à bien les soins. Cette recherche ethnographique a voulu documenter les relations des infirmières avec des couples en salle d’accouchement dans un hôpital de l’île de Montréal. Ce mémoire aborde un thème central de l’anthropologie : les relations humaines. La question clef de ce mémoire questionne les facteurs qui entravent et qui favorisent la relation thérapeutique entre l’infirmière et le couple en salle d’accouchement. Cette recherche démontre des lacunes théoriques qui technicisent la relation thérapeutique et indique que la notion du risque, les normes institutionnelles, l’hégémonie du savoir obstétrical et le pouvoir médical sont des facteurs qui semblent avoir une grande influence dans la relation thérapeutique.

Studies On The Dynamics And Water Quality Of The Muvattupuzha River In Relation To Effluent Discharge

The present study aims at the investigation of the 1ysico—chemical features of a tropical tidal river viz. we Muvattupuzha river. This river is expected to receive Jderate to heavy pollution loads in years to come, from we lone industrial unit, already set up on its bank. ilike other rivers, the geographical disposition of this Lver attains unique importance as regards its dynamics for 3) availability of natural runoff water from catchment :eas, which becomes very heavy during the monsoon season 3) regular steady availability of tail race water from a /dro—electric power station throughout the yearThe study also aims at arriving at the balancing forces of inherent self~purification of the river verses pollution loads from the factory effluents. The investigation period falls ahead of actual pollution occurrence and so the ambient conditions for a period of nearly one-and-a—half years were investigated, the analyses of which providflz to formulate the inter-relations of parameters varying with seasons. Tracer experiments were carried out which revealed the dispersion and dilution characteristics of the river in the vicinity of effluent outfall. The studv covers the trial—cum-capacity production periods of the factory during which effluents of various strength and quantity were discharged into the river; a few computed values arQ’cjmpgrQdl ... with the observed values. The base data along with the profiles of Oxygen sag equation have been utilized fb develop a mathematical model of the river with regard to its water quality

The mirror neuron system as revealed through neonatal imitation: presence from birth, predictive power, and evidence of plasticity

There is strong evidence that neonates imitate previously unseen behaviors. These behaviors are predominantly used in social interactions, demonstrating neonates’ ability and motivation to engage with others. Research on neonatal imitation can provide a wealth of information about the early mirror neuron system (MNS): namely, its functional characteristics, its plasticity from birth, and its relation to skills later in development. Though numerous studies document the existence of neonatal imitation in the laboratory, little is known about its natural occurrence during parent-infant interactions and its plasticity as a consequence of experience. We review these critical aspects of imitation, which we argue are necessary for understanding the early action-perception system. We address common criticisms and misunderstandings about neonatal imitation and discuss methodological differences among studies. Recent work reveals that individual differences in neonatal imitation positively correlate with later social, cognitive, and motor development. We propose that such variation in neonatal imitation could reflect important individual differences of the MNS. Although postnatal experience is not necessary for imitation, we present evidence that neonatal imitation is influenced by experience in the first week of life.

The power of perceptions: exploring the role of urban design in cycling behaviours and healthy ageing

Good urban design has the power to aid in the provision of inclusive journey environments, yet traditionally neglects the perspective of the cyclist. This paper starts from the premise that more can be done to understand and articulate cyclists’ experiences and perceptions of the urban environment in which they cycle, as part of a closer linking of urban design qualities with transport planning and infrastructure interventions. This approach is particularly applicable in relation to older cyclists, a group whose needs are often poorly understood and for whom perceptions can significantly influence mobile behaviours. Currently, knowledge regarding the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, including cycling, in older adults is limited. As European countries face up to the challenges associated with ageing populations, some metropolitan regions, such as Munich, Germany, are making inroads into widening cycling’s appeal across generations through a combination of urban design, policy and infrastructure initiatives. The paper provides a systematic understanding of the urban design qualities and built environment features that affect cycling participation and have the potential to contribute towards healthy ageing. Urban design features such as legibility, aesthetics, scale and open space have been shown to influence and affect other mobile behaviours (e.g. walking), but their role as a mediator in cycle behaviour remains under-explored. Many of these design ‘qualities’ are related to individual perceptions; capturing these can help build a picture of quality in the built environment that includes an individual’s relationship with their local neighbourhood and its influences on their mobility choices. Issues of accessibility, facilities, and safety in cycling remain crucial, and, when allied to these design ‘qualities‘, provides a more rounded reflection of everyday journeys and trips taken or desired. The paper sets out the role that urban design might play in mediating these critical mobility issues, and in particular, in better understanding the ‘quality of the journey’. It concludes by highlighting the need for designers, policy makers, planners and academics to consider the role that design can play in encouraging cycle participation, especially as part of a healthy ageing agenda.

An efficient neural approach to economic load dispatch in power systems

A neural approach to solve the problem defined by the economic load dispatch in power systems is presented in this paper, Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of simple processing elements and the high degree of connectivity between these elements the ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system optimization the neural networks applyed in economic load dispatch reported in literature sometimes fail to converge towards feasible equilibrium points the internal parameters of the modified Hopfield network developed here are computed using the valid-subspace technique These parameters guarantee the network convergence to feasible quilibrium points, A solution for the economic load dispatch problem corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results and comparative analysis in relation to other neural approaches are presented to illustrate efficiency of the proposed approach.

Signatures of primordial non-Gaussianities in the matter power-spectrum and bispectrum: the time-RG approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)