Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

Abstract: Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al.(2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

Estudo das variáveis do conforto térmico e luminoso em ambientes escolares

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Imagens hiperespectrais no monitoramento da nutrição em citros

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Otimização do braço inferior da suspensão dianteira do veículo Baja utilizando o método dos elementos finitos

Mass reduction coupled with the mechanical performance in service has been the goal of many projects related to the transport area, considering the advantages that mass reduction can bring. However, make a simple material substitution without design a new geometry to corroborate for the best component performance, often makes the replacement unviable. In this study, it was investigated the advantages of replacing the prototype BAJA SAE front suspension lower arm of Equipe Piratas do Vale de BAJA SAE - Universidade Paulista, Campus Guaratinguetá, actually produced with steel, for a new component made of carbon fiber composite. The new geometry has been developed to provide the best possible performance for this component and your easy manufacturing. The study was done using the 3D modeling tools and computer simulations via finite element method. The first stage of this work consisted on calculation of the estimated maximum contact force tire / soil in a prototype landing after jump at one meter high, drop test in the laboratory with the current vehicle, current front suspension lower arm 3D modeling, finite element simulation and analysis of critical regions. After all current component analysis, a new geometry for the part in study was designed and simulated in order to reduce the component mass and provide a technological innovation using composite materials. With this work it was possible to obtain a theoretical component mass reduction of 25,15% maintaining the mechanical strength necessary for the appropriated component performance when incited

Aplicação da gestão de processos em uma universidade pública do estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Synthesis and characterization of the atropisomeric relationships of a substituted N-phenyl-bipyrazole derivative with anti-inflammatory properties

This work describes the atropisomeric relationships of 3-methyl-5-(3-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)-1-phenyl-1H-pyrazol-4-amine (2d), which belongs to series 4-aminobipyrazole derivatives designed as anti-inflammatory agents. The 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectra obtained in the presence of a chiral lanthanide shift salt associated to chiral high-performance liquid chromatography analysis, X-ray diffraction, and molecular modeling tools confirmed that ortho bis-functionalized bipyrazole 2d exists as a mixture of aR,aS-atropisomers. These results provide useful information to understand the pharmacological profile of this derivative and of other 4-aminobipyrazole analogs. Chirality 24:463470, 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sviluppo di tecniche per la progettazione delle reti di monitoraggio della qualita' dell'aria

L’obiettivo del lavoro consiste nell’implementare una metodologia operativa volta alla progettazione di reti di monitoraggio e di campagne di misura della qualità dell’aria con l’utilizzo del laboratorio mobile, ottimizzando le posizioni dei dispositivi di campionamento rispetto a differenti obiettivi e criteri di scelta. La revisione e l’analisi degli approcci e delle indicazioni fornite dalla normativa di riferimento e dai diversi autori di lavori scientifici ha permesso di proporre un approccio metodologico costituito da due fasi operative principali, che è stato applicato ad un caso studio rappresentato dal territorio della provincia di Ravenna. La metodologia implementata prevede l’integrazione di numerosi strumenti di supporto alla valutazione dello stato di qualità dell’aria e degli effetti che gli inquinanti atmosferici possono generare su specifici recettori sensibili (popolazione residente, vegetazione, beni materiali). In particolare, la metodologia integra approcci di disaggregazione degli inventari delle emissioni attraverso l’utilizzo di variabili proxy, strumenti modellistici per la simulazione della dispersione degli inquinanti in atmosfera ed algoritmi di allocazione degli strumenti di monitoraggio attraverso la massimizzazione (o minimizzazione) di specifiche funzioni obiettivo. La procedura di allocazione sviluppata è stata automatizzata attraverso lo sviluppo di un software che, mediante un’interfaccia grafica di interrogazione, consente di identificare delle aree ottimali per realizzare le diverse campagne di monitoraggio

Aircraft-based in-situ aerosol mass spectrometry: Chemical characterization and source identification of submicron particulate matter in the free and upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The composition of the atmosphere is frequently perturbed by the emission of gaseous and particulate matter from natural as well as anthropogenic sources. While the impact of trace gases on the radiative forcing of the climate is relatively well understood the role of aerosol is far more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the vertical distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere and its chemical composition contribute valuable information to bridge this gap of knowledge. The chemical composition of aerosol reveals information on properties such as radiative behavior and hygroscopicity and therefore cloud condensation or ice nucleus potential. rnThis thesis focuses on aerosol pollution plumes observed in 2008 during the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) campaign over Greenland in June/July and CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) campaign over Central and Western Europe in October/November. Measurements were performed with an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) capable of online size-resolved chemical characterization of non-refractory submicron particles. In addition, the origins of pollution plumes were determined by means of modeling tools. The characterized pollution episodes originated from a large variety of sources and were encountered at distinct altitudes. They included pure natural emissions from two volcanic eruptions in 2008. By the time of detection over Western Europe between 10 and 12 km altitude the plume was about 3 months old and composed to 71 % of particulate sulfate and 21 % of carbonaceous compounds. Also, biomass burning (BB) plumes were observed over Greenland between 4 and 7 km altitude (free troposphere) originating from Canada and East Siberia. The long-range transport took roughly one and two weeks, respectively. The aerosol was composed of 78 % organic matter and 22 % particulate sulfate. Some Canadian and all Siberian BB plumes were mixed with anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF) in North America and East Asia. It was found that the contribution of particulate sulfate increased with growing influences from anthropogenic activity and Asia reaching up to 37 % after more than two weeks of transport time. The most exclusively anthropogenic emission source probed in the upper troposphere was engine exhaust from commercial aircraft liners over Germany. However, in-situ characterization of this aerosol type during aircraft chasing was not possible. All long-range transport aerosol was found to have an O:C ratio close to or greater than 1 implying that low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol was present in each case despite the variety of origins and the large range in age from 3 to 100 days. This leads to the conclusion that organic particulate matter reaches a final and uniform state of oxygenation after at least 3 days in the free troposphere. rnExcept for aircraft exhaust all emission sources mentioned above are surface-bound and thus rely on different types of vertical transport mechanisms, such as direct high altitude injection in the case of a volcanic eruption, or severe BB, or uplift by convection, to reach higher altitudes where particles can travel long distances before removal mainly caused by cloud scavenging. A lifetime for North American mixed BB and FF aerosol of 7 to 11 days was derived. This in consequence means that emission from surface point sources, e.g. volcanoes, or regions, e.g. East Asia, do not only have a relevant impact on the immediate surroundings but rather on a hemispheric scale including such climate sensitive zones as the tropopause or the Arctic.

DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE COMBUSTION MODEL OF A SPARK IGNITED ENGINE WITH GASOLINE DIRECT INJECTION, VARIABLE VALVE TIMING, DURATION AND LIFT TECHNOLOGIES

There is a need by engine manufactures for computationally efficient and accurate predictive combustion modeling tools for integration in engine simulation software for the assessment of combustion system hardware designs and early development of engine calibrations. This thesis discusses the process for the development and validation of a combustion modeling tool for Gasoline Direct Injected Spark Ignited Engine with variable valve timing, lift and duration valvetrain hardware from experimental data. Data was correlated and regressed from accepted methods for calculating the turbulent flow and flame propagation characteristics for an internal combustion engine. A non-linear regression modeling method was utilized to develop a combustion model to determine the fuel mass burn rate at multiple points during the combustion process. The computational fluid dynamic software Converge ©, was used to simulate and correlate the 3-D combustion system, port and piston geometry to the turbulent flow development within the cylinder to properly predict the experimental data turbulent flow parameters through the intake, compression and expansion processes. The engine simulation software GT-Power © is then used to determine the 1-D flow characteristics of the engine hardware being tested to correlate the regressed combustion modeling tool to experimental data to determine accuracy. The results of the combustion modeling tool show accurate trends capturing the combustion sensitivities to turbulent flow, thermodynamic and internal residual effects with changes in intake and exhaust valve timing, lift and duration.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in the Gulf of Maine: Pattern and Role of Zooplankton and Pelagic Nekton

This paper forms part of a broader overview of biodiversity of marine life in the Gulf of Maine area (GoMA), facilitated by the GoMA Census of Marine Life program. It synthesizes current data on species diversity of zooplankton and pelagic nekton, including compilation of observed species and descriptions of seasonal, regional and cross-shelf diversity patterns. Zooplankton diversity in the GoMA is characterized by spatial differences in community composition among the neritic environment, the coastal shelf, and deep offshore waters. Copepod diversity increased with depth on the Scotian Shelf. On the coastal shelf of the western Gulf of Maine, the number of higher-level taxonomic groups declined with distance from shore, reflecting more nearshore meroplankton. Copepod diversity increased in late summer, and interdecadal diversity shifts were observed, including a period of higher diversity in the 1990s. Changes in species diversity were greatest on interannual scales, intermediate on seasonal scales, and smallest across regions, in contrast to abundance patterns, suggesting that zooplankton diversity may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to interannual climate variation than zooplankton abundance. Local factors such as bathymetry, proximity of the coast, and advection probably drive zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity patterns in the GoMA, while ocean-basin-scale diversity patterns probably contribute to the increase in diversity at the Scotian Shelf break, a zone of mixing between the cold-temperate community of the shelf and the warm-water community offshore. Pressing research needs include establishment of a comprehensive system for observing change in zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity, enhanced observations of "underknown'' but important functional components of the ecosystem, population and metapopulation studies, and development of analytical modeling tools to enhance understanding of diversity patterns and drivers. Ultimately, sustained observations and modeling analysis of biodiversity must be effectively communicated to managers and incorporated into ecosystem approaches for management of GoMA living marine resources.

Model-Driven Methodology for Rapid Deployment of Smart Spaces based on Resource-Oriented Architectures

Advances in electronics nowadays facilitate the design of smart spaces based on physical mash-ups of sensor and actuator devices. At the same time, software paradigms such as Internet of Things (IoT) and Web of Things (WoT) are motivating the creation of technology to support the development and deployment of web-enabled embedded sensor and actuator devices with two major objectives: (i) to integrate sensing and actuating functionalities into everyday objects, and (ii) to easily allow a diversity of devices to plug into the Internet. Currently, developers who are applying this Internet-oriented approach need to have solid understanding about specific platforms and web technologies. In order to alleviate this development process, this research proposes a Resource-Oriented and Ontology-Driven Development (ROOD) methodology based on the Model Driven Architecture (MDA). This methodology aims at enabling the development of smart spaces through a set of modeling tools and semantic technologies that support the definition of the smart space and the automatic generation of code at hardware level. ROOD feasibility is demonstrated by building an adaptive health monitoring service for a Smart Gym.

3D simulation of complex shading affecting PV systems taking benefit from the power of graphics cards developed for the video game industry

Shading reduces the power output of a photovoltaic (PV) system. The design engineering of PV systems requires modeling and evaluating shading losses. Some PV systems are affected by complex shading scenes whose resulting PV energy losses are very difficult to evaluate with current modeling tools. Several specialized PV design and simulation software include the possibility to evaluate shading losses. They generally possess a Graphical User Interface (GUI) through which the user can draw a 3D shading scene, and then evaluate its corresponding PV energy losses. The complexity of the objects that these tools can handle is relatively limited. We have created a software solution, 3DPV, which allows evaluating the energy losses induced by complex 3D scenes on PV generators. The 3D objects can be imported from specialized 3D modeling software or from a 3D object library. The shadows cast by this 3D scene on the PV generator are then directly evaluated from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Thanks to the recent development of GPUs for the video game industry, the shadows can be evaluated with a very high spatial resolution that reaches well beyond the PV cell level, in very short calculation times. A PV simulation model then translates the geometrical shading into PV energy output losses. 3DPV has been implemented using WebGL, which allows it to run directly from a Web browser, without requiring any local installation from the user. This also allows taken full benefits from the information already available from Internet, such as the 3D object libraries. This contribution describes, step by step, the method that allows 3DPV to evaluate the PV energy losses caused by complex shading. We then illustrate the results of this methodology to several application cases that are encountered in the world of PV systems design. Keywords: 3D, modeling, simulation, GPU, shading, losses, shadow mapping, solar, photovoltaic, PV, WebGL

Eliminación de nutrientes mediante tratamientos biopelícula : corrientes actuales y necesidades de investigación

Los tratamientos biopelícula fueron unos de los primeros tratamientos biológicos que se aplicaron en las aguas residuales. Los tratamientos biopelícula presentan importantes ventajas frente a los cultivos en suspensión, sin embargo, el control de los tratamientos biopelícula es complicado y su modelización también. Las bases teóricas del comportamiento de las biopelículas empezaron a desarrollarse fundamentalmente a partir de los años 80. Dado que el proceso es complejo con ecuaciones de difícil resolución, estas conceptualizaciones han sido consideradas durante años como ejercicios matemáticos más que como herramientas de diseño y simulación. Los diseños de los reactores estaban basados en experiencias de plantas piloto o en comportamientos empíricos de determinadas plantas. Las ecuaciones de diseño eran regresiones de los datos empíricos. La aplicabilidad de las ecuaciones se reducía a las condiciones particulares de la planta de la que provenían los datos empíricos. De tal forma que existía una gran variedad y diversidad de ecuaciones empíricas para cada tipo de reactor. La investigación médica durante los años 90 centró su atención en la formación y eliminación de las biopelículas. Gracias al desarrollo de nuevas prácticas de laboratorio que permitían estudiar el interior de las biopelículas y gracias también al aumento de la capacidad de los ordenadores, la simulación del comportamiento de las biopelículas tomó un nuevo impulso en esta década. El desarrollo de un tipo de biopelículas, fangos granulares, en condiciones aerobias realizando simultaneamente procesos de eliminación de nutrientes ha sido recientemente patentado. Esta patente ha recibido numerosos premios y reconocimientos internacionales tales como la Eurpean Invention Award (2012). En 1995 se descubrió que determinadas bacterias podían realizar un nuevo proceso de eliminación de nitrógeno denominado Anammox. Este nuevo tipo de proceso de eliminación de nitrógeno tiene el potencial de ofrecer importantes mejoras en el rendimiento de eliminación y en el consumo de energía. En los últimos 10 años, se han desarrollado una serie de tratamientos denominados “innovadores” de eliminación de nutrientes. Dado que no resulta posible el establecimiento de estas bacterias Anammox en fangos activos convencionales, normalmente se recurre al uso de cultivos biopelícula. La investigación se ha centrado en el desarrollo de estos procesos innovadores en cultivos biopelícula, en particular en los fangos granulares y MBBR e IFAs, con el objeto de establecer las condiciones bajo las cuales estos procesos se pueden desarrollar de forma estable. Muchas empresas y organizaciones buscan una segunda patente. Una cuestión principal en el desarrollo de estos procesos se encuentra la correcta selección de las condiciones ambientales y de operación para que unas bacterias desplacen a otras en el interior de las biopelículas. El diseño de plantas basado en cultivos biopelícula con procesos convencionales se ha realizado normalmente mediante el uso de métodos empíricos y semi-empíricos. Sin embargo, los criterios de selección avanzados aplicados en los Tratamientos Innovadores de Eliminación de Nitrógeno unido a la complejidad de los mecanismos de transporte de sustratos y crecimiento de la biomasa en las biopelículas, hace necesario el uso de herramientas de modelización para poder conclusiones no evidentes. Biofilms were one of the first biological treatments used in the wastewater treatment. Biofilms exhibit important advantages over suspended growth activated sludge. However, controlling biofilms growth is complicated and likewise its simulation. The theoretical underpinnings of biofilms performance began to be developed during 80s. As the equations that govern the growth of biofilms are complex and its resolution is challenging, these conceptualisations have been considered for years as mathematical exercises instead of practical design and simulation tools. The design of biofilm reactors has been based on performance information of pilot plants and specific plants. Most of the times, the designing equations were simple regressions of empirical data. The applicability of these equations were confined to the particular conditions of the plant from where the data came from. Consequently, there were a wide range of design equations for each type of reactor During 90s medical research focused its efforts on how biofilm´s growth with the ultimate goal of avoiding it. Thanks to the development of new laboratory techniques that allowed the study the interior of the biofilms and thanks as well to the development of the computers, simulation of biofilms’ performance had a considerable evolution during this decade. In 1995 it was discovered that certain bacteria can carry out a new sort of nutrient removal process named Anammox. This new type of nutrient removal process potentially can enhance considerably the removal performance and the energy consumption. In the last decade, it has been developed a range of treatments based on the Anammox generally named “Innovative Nutrient Removal Treatments”. As it is not possible to cultivate Anammox bacteria in activated sludge, normally scientists and designers resort to the use of biofilms. A critical issue in the development of these innovative processes is the correct selection of environment and operation conditions so as to certain bacterial population displace to others bacteria within the biofilm. The design of biofilm technology plants is normally based on the use of empirical and semi-empirical methods. However, the advanced control strategies used in the Innovative Nutrient Removal Processes together with the complexity of the mass transfer and biomass growth in biofilms, require the use of modeling tools to be able to set non evident conclusions.