Maternal Smoking Impact on the Delivery Cost: a population-based study in the Emilia-Romagna region

This doctoral thesis is devoted to the study of the causal effects of the maternal smoking on the delivery cost. The interest of economic consequences of smoking in pregnancy have been studied fairly extensively in the USA, and very little is known in European context. To identify the causal relation between different maternal smoking status and the delivery cost in the Emilia-Romagna region two distinct methods were used. The first - geometric multidimensional - is mainly based on the multivariate approach and involves computing and testing the global imbalance, classifying cases in order to generate well-matched comparison groups, and then computing treatment effects. The second - structural modelling - refers to a general methodological account of model-building and model-testing. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the global mechanism into sub-mechanisms though a recursive decomposition of a multivariate distribution.

Search for new phenomena in events with three charged leptons at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A generic search for anomalous production of events with at least three charged leptons is presented. The search uses a pp-collision data sample at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 7 TeV corresponding to 4.6 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected in 2011 by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Events are required to contain at least two electrons or muons, while the third lepton may either be an additional electron or muon, or a hadronically decaying tau lepton. Events are categorized by the presence or absence of a reconstructed tau-lepton or Z-boson candidate decaying to leptons. No significant excess above backgrounds expected from Standard Model processes is observed. Results are presented as upper limits on event yields from non-Standard-Model processes producing at least three prompt, isolated leptons, given as functions of lower bounds on several kinematic variables. Fiducial efficiencies for model testing are also provided. The use of the results is illustrated by setting upper limits on the production of doubly charged Higgs bosons decaying to same-sign lepton pairs.

Simulación de maniobras de buques con sistemas de propulsión no convencional en aguas poco profundas

Los requisitos cada vez más exigentes en cuanto a misiones, limitaciones operacionales y ambientales así como nuevas tecnologías, imponen permanentemente retos a los arquitectos navales para generar alternativas de buques y valorar su bondad en las primeras etapas del proyecto. Este es el caso de los Buques Patrulleros de Apoyo Fluvial Pesados PAF-P, que por requerimiento de la Armada Nacional de Colombia ha diseñado y construido COTECMAR. Los PAF-P, son buques fluviales cuya relación Manga-Calado excede la mayoría de los buques existentes (B/T=9,5), debido principalmente a las restricciones en el calado a consecuencia de la escasa profundidad de los ríos. Estos buques están equipados con sistemas de propulsión acimutales tipo “Pum-Jet”. Las particularidades del buque y del ambiente operacional, caracterizado por ríos tropicales con una variabilidad de profundidad dependiente del régimen de lluvias y sequía, así como la falta de canalización y la corriente, hacen que la maniobrabilidad y controlabilidad sean fundamentales para el cumplimiento de su misión; adicionalmente, no existen modelos matemáticos validados que permitan predecir en las primeras etapas del diseño la maniobrabilidad de este tipo de buques con los efectos asociados por profundidad. La presente tesis doctoral aborda el desarrollo de un modelo matemático para simulación de maniobrabilidad en aguas poco profundas de buques con relación manga-calado alta y con propulsores acimutales tipo “Pump-Jet”, cuyo chorro además de entregar el empuje necesario para el avance del buque, genera la fuerza de gobierno en función del ángulo de orientación del mismo, eliminando la necesidad de timones. El modelo matemático ha sido validado mediante los resultados obtenidos en las pruebas de maniobrabilidad a escala real del PAF-P, a través de la comparación de trayectorias, series temporales de las variables de estado más significativas y parámetros del círculo evolutivo como son diámetro de giro, diámetro táctico, avance y transferencia. El plan de pruebas se basó en técnicas de Diseño de Experimentos “DOE” para racionalizar el número de corridas en diferentes condiciones de profundidad, velocidad y orientación del chorro (ángulo de timón). En el marco de la presente investigación y para minimizar los errores por efectos ambientales y por inexactitud en los instrumentos de medición, se desarrolló un sistema de adquisición y procesamiento de datos de acuerdo con los lineamientos de ITTC. La literatura existente describe los efectos negativos de la profundidad en los parámetros de maniobrabilidad de buques convencionales (Efecto tipo S), principalmente las trayectorias descritas en los círculos evolutivos aumentan en la medida que disminuye la profundidad; no obstante, en buques de alta relación manga-calado, B/T=7,51 (Yoshimura, y otros, 1.988) y B/T=6,38 (Yasukawa, y otros, 1.995) ha sido reportado el efecto contrario (Efecto tipo NS Non Standart). Este último efecto sin embargo, ha sido observado mediante experimentación con modelos a escala pero no ha sido validado en pruebas de buques a escala real. El efecto tipo NS en buques dotados con hélice y timones, se atribuye al mayor incremento de la fuerza del timón comparativamente con las fuerzas del casco en la medida que disminuye la profundidad; en el caso de estudio, el fenómeno está asociado a la mejor eficiencia de la bomba de agua “Pump-Jet”, debido a la resistencia añadida en el casco por efecto de la disminución de la profundidad. Los resultados de las pruebas con buque a escala real validan el excelente desempeño de esta clase de buques, cumpliendo en exceso los criterios de maniobrabilidad existentes y muestran que el diámetro de giro y otras características de maniobrabilidad mejoran con la disminución de la profundidad en buques con alta relación manga-calado. ABSTRACT The increasingly demanding requirements in terms of missions, operational and environmental constraints as well as new technologies, constantly impose challenges to naval architects to generate alternatives and asses their performance in the early stages of design. That is the case of Riverine Support Patrol Vessel (RSPV), designed and built by COTECMAR for the Colombian Navy. RSPV are riverine ships with a Beam-Draft ratio exceeding most of existing ships (B/T=9,5), mainly due to the restrictions in draft as a result of shallow water environment. The ships are equipped with azimuthal propulsion system of the “Pump-Jet” type. The peculiarities of the ship and the operational environment, characterized by tropical rivers of variable depth depending on the rain and dry seasons, as well as the lack channels and the effect of water current, make manoeuvrability and controllability fundamental to fulfill its mission; on the other hand, there are not validated mathematical models available to predict the manoeuvrability of such ships with the associated water depth effects in the early stages of design. This dissertation addresses the development of a mathematical model for shallow waters’ manoeuvrability simulation of ships with high Beam-Draft ratio and azimuthal propulsion systems type “Pump-Jet”, whose stream generates the thrust required by the ship to advance and also the steering force depending on the orientation angle, eliminating the need of rudders. The mathematical model has been validated with the results of RSPV’s full scale manoeuvring tests, through a comparison of paths, time series of state variables and other parameters taken from turning tests, such as turning diameter, tactical diameter, advance and transfer. The test plan was developed applying techniques of Design of Experiments “DOE”, in order to rationalize the number of runs in different conditions of water depth, ship speed and jet stream orientation (rudder angle). A data acquisition and processing system was developed, following the guidelines of ITTC, as part of this research effort, in order to minimize errors by environmental effects and inaccuracy in measurement instruments, The negative effects of depth on manoeuvrability parameters for conventional ships (Effect Type S: the path described by the ship during turning test increase with decrease of water depth), has been documented in the open literature; however for wide-beam ships, B/T=7,51 (Yoshimura, y otros, 1.988) and B/T=6,38 (Yasukawa, y otros, 1.995) has been reported the opposite effect (Type NS). The latter effect has been observed thru model testing but until now had not been validated with full-scale results. In ships with propellers and rudders, type NS effect is due to the fact that increment of rudder force becomes larger than hull force with decrease of water depth; in the study case, the phenomenon is associated with better efficiency of the Pump-Jet once the vessel speed becomes lower, due to hull added resistance by the effect of the decrease of water depth. The results of full scale tests validates the excellent performance of this class of ships, fulfilling the manoeuvrability criteria in excess and showing that turning diameter and other parameters in high beam-draft ratio vessels do improve with the decrease of depth.

The upwash correction for an oscillating wing in a wind tunnel.

"Contract no. AF-33(038)-17848, study of dynamic stability model testing."

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Action research in a collective organisation:Developing an education programme in a pressure group

The aim of this project was to develop the education work of an environmental pressure group. The research devised and implemented a project to produce multi-media teaching packs on the urban environment. Whilst this involved understanding environmental education it was necessary to research beyond this to include the various structural and dynamic constraints on change in the field. This presented a number of methodological difficulties; from the resolution of which a model of the research process involved in this project has been developed. It is argued that research oriented towards practical change requires the insights of an experienced practitioner to be combined with the rigours of controlled systematic enquiry. Together these function as a model-building process encompassing intuition, induction and deduction. Model testing is carried out through repeated intervention in the field; thus an interplay between researcher and client ensues such that the project develops in a mutually acceptable direction. In practice, this development will be both unpredictable and erratic. Although the conclusions reached here are based on a single case study they address general methodological issues likely to be encountered in different field settings concerned with different practical problems.

The relationship between selected standardized test scores and performance in advanced placement math and science exams: Analyzing the differential effectiveness of scores for course identification and placement

There is a national need to increase the STEM-related workforce. Among factors leading towards STEM careers include the number of advanced high school mathematics and science courses students complete. Florida's enrollment patterns in STEM-related Advanced Placement (AP) courses, however, reveal that only a small percentage of students enroll into these classes. Therefore, screening tools are needed to find more students for these courses, who are academically ready, yet have not been identified. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which scores from a national standardized test, Preliminary Scholastic Assessment Test/ National Merit Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT), in conjunction with and compared to a state-mandated standardized test, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT), are related to selected AP exam performance in Seminole County Public Schools. An ex post facto correlational study was conducted using 6,189 student records from the 2010 - 2012 academic years. Multiple regression analyses using simultaneous Full Model testing showed differential moderate to strong relationships between scores in eight of the nine AP courses (i.e., Biology, Environmental Science, Chemistry, Physics B, Physics C Electrical, Physics C Mechanical, Statistics, Calculus AB and BC) examined. For example, the significant unique contribution to overall variance in AP scores was a linear combination of PSAT Math (M), Critical Reading (CR) and FCAT Reading (R) for Biology and Environmental Science. Moderate relationships for Chemistry included a linear combination of PSAT M, W (Writing) and FCAT M; a combination of FCAT M and PSAT M was most significantly associated with Calculus AB performance. These findings have implications for both research and practice. FCAT scores, in conjunction with PSAT scores, can potentially be used for specific STEM-related AP courses, as part of a systematic approach towards AP course identification and placement. For courses with moderate to strong relationships, validation studies and development of expectancy tables, which estimate the probability of successful performance on these AP exams, are recommended. Also, findings established a need to examine other related research issues including, but not limited to, extensive longitudinal studies and analyses of other available or prospective standardized test scores.

Performance study of the Galway Bay wave energy test site floating power system

The Galway Bay wave energy test site promises to be a vital resource for wave energy researchers and developers. As part of the development of this site, a floating power system is being developed to provide power and data acquisition capabilities, including its function as a local grid connection, allowing for the connection of up to three wave energy converter devices. This work shows results from scaled physical model testing and numerical modelling of the floating power system and an oscillating water column connected with an umbilical. Results from this study will be used to influence further scaled testing as well as the full scale design and build of the floating power system in Galway Bay.

Vibration based health monitoring of civil infrastructure using energy harvesting techniques

The use of structural health monitoring of civil structures is ever expanding and by assessing the dynamical condition of structures, informed maintenance management can be conducted at both individual and network levels. With the continued growth of information age technology, the potential arises for smart monitoring systems to be integrated with civil infrastructure to provide efficient information on the condition of a structure. The focus of this thesis is the integration of smart technology with civil infrastructure for the purposes of structural health monitoring. The technology considered in this regard are devices based on energy harvesting materials. While there has been considerable focus on the development and optimisation of such devices using steady state loading conditions, their applications for civil infrastructure are less known. Although research is still in initial stages, studies into the uses associated with such applications are very promising. Through the use of the dynamical response of structures to a variety of loading conditions, the energy harvesting outputs from such devices is established and the potential power output determined. Through a power variance output approach, damage detection of deteriorating structures using the energy harvesting devices is investigated. Further applications of the integration of energy harvesting devices with civil infrastructure investigated by this research includes the use of the power output as a indicator for control. Four approaches are undertaken to determine the potential applications arising from integrating smart technology with civil infrastructure, namely • Theoretical analysis to determine the applications of energy harvesting devices for vibration based health monitoring of civil infrastructure. • Laboratory experimentation to verify the performance of different energy harvesting configurations for civil infrastructure applications. • Scaled model testing as a method to experimentally validate the integration of the energy harvesting devices with civil infrastructure. • Full scale deployment of energy harvesting device with a bridge structure. These four approaches validate the application of energy harvesting technology with civil infrastructure from a theoretical, experimental and practical perspective.

Supporting Run-time Monitoring of UML-RT through Customizable Monitoring Configurations in PapyrusRT

Model Driven Engineering uses the principle that code can automatically be generated from software models which would potentially save time and cost of development. By this methodology, a systems structure and behaviour can be expressed in more abstract, high level terms without some of the accidental complexity that the use of a general purpose language can bring. Models are the actual implementation of the system unlike in traditional software development where models are often used for documentation purposes only. However once the code is generated from the model, testing and debugging activities tend to happen on the code level and the model is not updated. We believe that monitoring on the model level could potentially facilitate quality assurance activities as the errors are detected in the early phase of development. In this thesis, we create a Monitoring Configuration for an open source model driven engineering tool called PapyrusRT in Eclipse. We support the run-time monitoring of UML-RT elements with a tracing tool called LTTng. We annotate the model with monitoring information to be used by the code generator for adding tracepoint statements for the corresponding elements. We provide the option of a timing specification to discover latency errors on the model. We validate the results by creating and tracing real time models in PapyrusRT.

O papel da partilha de conhecimento na relação entre confiança e compromisso organizacional

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

What to do when K-means clustering fails:a simple yet principled alternative algorithm

The K-means algorithm is one of the most popular clustering algorithms in current use as it is relatively fast yet simple to understand and deploy in practice. Nevertheless, its use entails certain restrictive assumptions about the data, the negative consequences of which are not always immediately apparent, as we demonstrate. While more flexible algorithms have been developed, their widespread use has been hindered by their computational and technical complexity. Motivated by these considerations, we present a flexible alternative to K-means that relaxes most of the assumptions, whilst remaining almost as fast and simple. This novel algorithm which we call MAP-DP (maximum a-posteriori Dirichlet process mixtures), is statistically rigorous as it is based on nonparametric Bayesian Dirichlet process mixture modeling. This approach allows us to overcome most of the limitations imposed by K-means. The number of clusters K is estimated from the data instead of being fixed a-priori as in K-means. In addition, while K-means is restricted to continuous data, the MAP-DP framework can be applied to many kinds of data, for example, binary, count or ordinal data. Also, it can efficiently separate outliers from the data. This additional flexibility does not incur a significant computational overhead compared to K-means with MAP-DP convergence typically achieved in the order of seconds for many practical problems. Finally, in contrast to K-means, since the algorithm is based on an underlying statistical model, the MAP-DP framework can deal with missing data and enables model testing such as cross validation in a principled way. We demonstrate the simplicity and effectiveness of this algorithm on the health informatics problem of clinical sub-typing in a cluster of diseases known as parkinsonism.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.

Competence in Intelligence Testing : A Training Model for Postgraduate Psychology Students

The assessment of intellectual ability is a core competency in psychology. The results of intelligence tests have many potential implications and are used frequently as the basis for decisions about educational placements, eligibility for various services, and admission to specific groups. Given the importance of intelligence test scores, accurate test administration and scoring are essential; yet there is evidence of unacceptably high rates of examiner error. This paper discusses competency and postgraduate training in intelligence testing and presents a training model for postgraduate psychology students. The model aims to achieve high levels of competency in intelligence testing through a structured method of training, practice and feedback that incorporates peer support, self-reflection and multiple methods for evaluating competency.