Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Regional income inequality in Italy in the long run (1871–2001). Patterns and determinants

The chapter presents up-to-date estimates of Italy’s regional GDP, with the present borders, in ten-year benchmarks from 1871 to 2001, and proposes a new interpretative hypothesis based on long-lasting socio-institutional differences. The inverted U-shape of income inequality is confirmed: rising divergence until the midtwentieth century, then convergence. However, the latter was limited to the centrenorth: Italy was divided into three parts by the time regional inequality peaked, in 1951, and appears to have been split into two halves by 2001. As a consequence of the falling back of the south, from 1871 to 2001 we record σ-divergence across Italy’s regions, i.e. an increase in dispersion, and sluggish β-convergence. Geographical factors and the market size played a minor role: against them are both the evidence that most of the differences in GDP are due to employment rather than to productivity and the observed GDP patterns of many regions. The gradual converging of regional GDPs towards two equilibria instead follows social and institutional differences − in the political and economic institutions and in the levels of human and social capital – which originated in pre-unification states and did not die (but in part even increased) in postunification Italy.

Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia tekijöitä jotkavaikuttavat lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä kullan hintaan. Toiseksi tutkielmassa selvitetään mitä eri sijoitusmahdollisuuksia löytyy kultaan sijoitettaessa. Aineistona käytetään kuukausitasoista dataa Yhdysvaltain ja maailman hintaindekseistä, Yhdysvaltain ja maailman inflaatiosta ja inflaation volatiliteetista, kullan beetasta, kullan lainahinnasta, luottoriskistä ja Yhdysvaltojen ja maailman valuuttakurssi indeksistä joulukuulta 1972 elokuulle 2006. Yhteisintegraatio regressiotekniikoita käytettiin muodostamaan malli jonka avullatutkittiin päätekijöitä jotka vaikuttavat kullan hintaan. Kirjallisuutta tutkimalla selvitettiin miten kultaan voidaan sijoittaa. Empiirisettulokset ovat yhteneväisiä edellisten tutkimusten kanssa. Tukea löytyi sille, että kulta on pitkän ajan suoja inflaatiota vastaan ja kulta ja Yhdysvaltojen inflaatio liikkuvat pitkällä aikavälillä yhdessä. Kullan hintaan vaikuttavat kuitenkin lyhyen ajan tekijät pitkän ajan tekijöitä enemmän. Kulta on myös sijoittajalle helppo sijoituskohde, koska se on hyvin saatavilla markkinoilla ja eri instrumentteja on lukuisia.

The offspring of the diabetic mother--short- and long-term implications.

In the 1980s, David Barker and Colleagues proposed that the major causes of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases have their roots in early development. There is now robust evidence that an hyperglycemic intrauterine environment is responsible not only for significant short-term morbidity in the fetus and the neonate but also for an increased risk of developing diabetes as well as other chronic, noncommunicable diseases at adulthood. The risk is higher in pregestational diabetes, but unrecognized and/or poorly managed gestational diabetes (GDM) may have similar consequences. Although a relatively clear picture of the pathogenesis of the fetal and neonatal complications of maternal diabetes and of their interrelationship is available today, the intimate molecular mechanisms involved in the long term are far from being understood. While the rate of GDM is sharply increasing in association with the pandemic of obesity and of type 2 diabetes over the world, we review here the current understanding of short- and long-term outcomes of fetuses exposed to a diabetic environment.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

The long run development of Chile and the Natural Resources curse. Linkages, policy and growth, 1850-1950

This chapter analyses the effects of Natural Resources on the Chilean economy in the long run -1850-1950-. Specifically, the authors focus their attention on the mining cycles -nitrates and copper- and their impact on the mining activity. We also compare it with the evolution of the industry and whole economy, and how this has affected the economic growth of the country. In that sense, the industrial performance in Chile at the end of the 19th century until the Great Depression is still under debate. The optimistic view of Kirsch -1977- forehead the pessimistic view of Lagos -1966- and Palma -1979-. The new data and its analyses shows a neutral effect of the Natural Resources in the industrial development.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference

We propose methods for testing hypotheses of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses considered are nonlinear, the proposed methods only require linear regression techniques as well as standard Gaussian asymptotic distributional theory. Bootstrap procedures are also considered. For the case of integrated processes, we propose extended regression methods that avoid nonstandard asymptotics. The methods are applied to a VAR model of the U.S. economy.

The Impact of Recycling on the Long-Run Stock of Trees

Interest in recycling of forest products has grown in recent years, one of the goals being to conserve the stock of trees or possibly increase it to compensate for positive externalities generated by the forest and neglected by the market. This paper explores the issue as to whether recycling is an appropriate measure to attain such a goal. We do this by considering the problem of the private owner of an area of land, who, acting as a price taker, decides how to allocate his land over time between forestry and some other use, and at what age to harvest the forest area chosen. Once the forest is cut, he makes a new land allocation decision and replants. He does so indefinitely, in a Faustmann-like framework. The wood from the harvest is transformed into a final product which is partly recycled into a substitute for the virgin wood, so that past output affects the current price. We show that in such a context, increasing the rate of recycling will result in less area being devoted to forestry. It will also have the effect of increasing the harvest age of the forest, as long as the planting cost is positive. The net effect on the flow of virgin wood being harvested to supply the market will as a result be ambiguous. The main point however is that recycling will result in a smaller, not a larger, stock of trees in the long run. It would therefore be best to resort to other means if the goal is to increase the stock of trees.

Factors that have shaped the eEvolution of bilateral trade between Canada and Colombia in the long run (1953-2003)

Currently bilateral trade between Canada and Colombia is low. In 2003, this trade amounted to US $489 million, with Co­lombian imports from Canada totaling US $ 213 million (DOTS, 2004). Canada supplied approximately 4.0% of Colombia’s total trade (total imports and total ex­ports), in contrast Colombia supplied only around 0.1% of the Canadian total trade. In 2005, Colombia was the third largest Canadian partner in South America after Brazil and Venezuela. The objective of this paper is to analyze the trade performance between Canada and Colombia using a modified gravity equation to identify the most relevant historical factors that have shaped the evo­lution of this bilateral trade in the long run (during the period from 1953 to 2003). The analysis includes traditional economic va­riables (such as population and income of the importing and exporting countries). In order to understand the qualitative nature of the evolution of this bilateral trade the second objective is to review the evolving nature of trade including commodity com­position and trade characteristics.  

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

Energy Saving Innovations, Non-Exhaustible Sources of Energy and Long-Run: What Would Happen if we Run Out of Oil?

Se formula y resuelve un modelo de cambio tecnológico ahorrador de factores de producción que considera tres factores: capital, trabajo y energía. El modelo cuenta con características específicas con respecto a la interacción n entre la energía (la cual, de acuerdo a su fuente puede ser renovable y no renovable) y el capital. Una vez esta economía se ha definido, se supone que evoluciona en tres etapas luego de su industrialización, durante las cuales el carácter renovable o no renovable de la energía influye su precio relativo, eficiencia y afecta también el nivel agregado de consumo y producción de la economía, sin que esta evolución lleve al colapso del sistema económico.