Combined audit report on the institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Human Services including findings and recommendations and average cost per resident/patient information for the five years ended June 30, 2006

Combined audit report on the institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Human Services including findings and recommendations and average cost per resident/patient information for the five years ended June 30, 2006

Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality

This paper extends multivariate Granger causality to take into account the subspacesalong which Granger causality occurs as well as long run Granger causality. The propertiesof these new notions of Granger causality, along with the requisite restrictions, are derivedand extensively studied for a wide variety of time series processes including linear invertibleprocess and VARMA. Using the proposed extensions, the paper demonstrates that: (i) meanreversion in L2 is an instance of long run Granger non-causality, (ii) cointegration is a specialcase of long run Granger non-causality along a subspace, (iii) controllability is a special caseof Granger causality, and finally (iv) linear rational expectations entail (possibly testable)Granger causality restriction along subspaces.

Is altruism important for understanding the long-run effects of social security?

This paper quantifies the effects of social security on capital accumulation and wealth distribution in a life cycle framework with altruistic individuals. The main findings of this paper are that the current U.S. social security system has a significant impact on capital accumulation and wealth distribution. I find that social security crowds out 8\% of the capital stock of an economy without social security. This effect is driven by the distortions of labor supply due to the taxation of labor income rather than by the intergenerational redistribution of income imposed by the social security system. In contrast to previous analysis of social security, I found that social security does not affect the savings rate of the economy. Another interesting finding is that even though the current U.S. social security system is progressive in its benefits, it may lead to a more disperse distribution of wealth.

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.

Long run relationships and price rigidity

I study a repeated buyer-seller relationship for the exchange of a givengood. Asymmetric information over the buyer's reservation price, which issubject to random shocks, may lead the seller to use a rigid pricing policydespite the possibility of making higher profits through price discriminationacross the different satates of the buyer's reservation price. The existence of a flexible price subgame perfect equilibrium is shown for the buyerssufficiently locked-in. When the seller faces a population of buyers whose degree of involvmentin the relatioship is unknown, the flexible price equilibrium is notnecessarily optimal. Thus tipically the seller will prefer to use therigid price strategy. A learning process allowing the seller to screenthe population of buyers is derived abd the existence of a switching pointbetween the two regimes (i.e. price rigidity and price felxibility) isshown.

The long-run and intergenerational education impacts of intergovernmental transfers

This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-run and intergenerational education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers temporarily increased by about 20% during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for directly exposed cohorts established in previous work that used the 1991 census are attenuated but persist in the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Children and adolescents of the next generation --born after the extra funding had disappeared-- show gains of about 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s. While we find no evidence of persistent improvements in school resources, we document discontinuities in education levels, literacy rates and incomes of test takers' parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers.

Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions

Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Regional income inequality in Italy in the long run (1871–2001). Patterns and determinants

The chapter presents up-to-date estimates of Italy’s regional GDP, with the present borders, in ten-year benchmarks from 1871 to 2001, and proposes a new interpretative hypothesis based on long-lasting socio-institutional differences. The inverted U-shape of income inequality is confirmed: rising divergence until the midtwentieth century, then convergence. However, the latter was limited to the centrenorth: Italy was divided into three parts by the time regional inequality peaked, in 1951, and appears to have been split into two halves by 2001. As a consequence of the falling back of the south, from 1871 to 2001 we record σ-divergence across Italy’s regions, i.e. an increase in dispersion, and sluggish β-convergence. Geographical factors and the market size played a minor role: against them are both the evidence that most of the differences in GDP are due to employment rather than to productivity and the observed GDP patterns of many regions. The gradual converging of regional GDPs towards two equilibria instead follows social and institutional differences − in the political and economic institutions and in the levels of human and social capital – which originated in pre-unification states and did not die (but in part even increased) in postunification Italy.

Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia tekijöitä jotkavaikuttavat lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä kullan hintaan. Toiseksi tutkielmassa selvitetään mitä eri sijoitusmahdollisuuksia löytyy kultaan sijoitettaessa. Aineistona käytetään kuukausitasoista dataa Yhdysvaltain ja maailman hintaindekseistä, Yhdysvaltain ja maailman inflaatiosta ja inflaation volatiliteetista, kullan beetasta, kullan lainahinnasta, luottoriskistä ja Yhdysvaltojen ja maailman valuuttakurssi indeksistä joulukuulta 1972 elokuulle 2006. Yhteisintegraatio regressiotekniikoita käytettiin muodostamaan malli jonka avullatutkittiin päätekijöitä jotka vaikuttavat kullan hintaan. Kirjallisuutta tutkimalla selvitettiin miten kultaan voidaan sijoittaa. Empiirisettulokset ovat yhteneväisiä edellisten tutkimusten kanssa. Tukea löytyi sille, että kulta on pitkän ajan suoja inflaatiota vastaan ja kulta ja Yhdysvaltojen inflaatio liikkuvat pitkällä aikavälillä yhdessä. Kullan hintaan vaikuttavat kuitenkin lyhyen ajan tekijät pitkän ajan tekijöitä enemmän. Kulta on myös sijoittajalle helppo sijoituskohde, koska se on hyvin saatavilla markkinoilla ja eri instrumentteja on lukuisia.

Televerkkojen yhteenliittämisen hinnoittelu- ja kustannuslaskenta-mallit – mallien analysointi

Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli selvittää: - Miten televerkkojen yhteenliittämismaksu tulisi muodostaa Suomen telemarkkinoilla ? - Millaisia ovat televerkkojen yhteenliittämisen hinnoittelussa käytettävät hinnoittelumallit ? Tutkielmassa esitellään Tutkielmassa esitellään ensin telemarkkinoiden rakenne sekä televerkkojen yhteenliittämistä säätelevän lainsäädännön, teleyrityksille asettamat vaatimukset. Tutkielman varsinaisessa teoriaosassa käsitellään mm. yrityksen taloustavoitteita ja niiden yhteyttä hinnoitteluun, tuotekustannuslaskentaa, nykyarvolaskentaa, tuotantokapsiteetin huomioimista sekä yleisten hinnoittelustrategioiden ominaisuuksia. Tutkielmaan ei sisälly varsinaista laajaa empiirista osaa. Yhteenliittämisen hinnoittelumallien vertailu on toteutettu kuviteltuja lukuja sisältävän esimerkkilaskelman avulla. Televerkkojen yhteenliittämismaksujen tulee lainsäädännön mukaan perustua pitkän tähtäyksen keskimääräisiin lisäkustannuksiin.Tällöin yhteenliittämismaksun suuruuteen vaikuttaa oleellisesti vakiintuneen teleyrityksen yhteenliittämisen toteutushetken kapasiteettitilanne. Ratkaiseva tekijä yhteenliittämismaksujen muodostamisen osalta on pitkän tähtäyksen keskimääräisten lisäkustannusten lisäksi veloitettava hinnanlisä/kate, jonka suuruus on käytettävästä hinnoittelumallista riippuvainen. Lainsäädännön mukainen käsite ”kohtuullinen kate” on epätarkasti määritelty, mikä antaa teleyritykselle mahdollisuuden kattaa esimerkiksi yhteenliittämisen aiheuttamat vaihtoehtoiskustannukset tai osan teleyrityksen yleiskustannuksista korkeamman hinnanlisän/katteen avulla.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

The long run development of Chile and the Natural Resources curse. Linkages, policy and growth, 1850-1950

This chapter analyses the effects of Natural Resources on the Chilean economy in the long run -1850-1950-. Specifically, the authors focus their attention on the mining cycles -nitrates and copper- and their impact on the mining activity. We also compare it with the evolution of the industry and whole economy, and how this has affected the economic growth of the country. In that sense, the industrial performance in Chile at the end of the 19th century until the Great Depression is still under debate. The optimistic view of Kirsch -1977- forehead the pessimistic view of Lagos -1966- and Palma -1979-. The new data and its analyses shows a neutral effect of the Natural Resources in the industrial development.

General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.