929 resultados para interest rate


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stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

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Ennek a cikknek az a célja, hogy áttekintést adjon annak a folyamatnak néhány főbb állomásáról, amit Black, Scholes és Merton opcióárazásról írt cikkei indítottak el a 70-es évek elején, és ami egyszerre forradalmasította a fejlett nyugati pénzügyi piacokat és a pénzügyi elméletet. / === / This review article compares the development of financial theory within and outside Hungary in the last three decades starting with the Black-Scholes revolution. Problems like the term structure of interest rate volatilities which is in the focus of many research internationally has not received the proper attention among the Hungarian economists. The article gives an overview of no-arbitrage pricing, the partial differential equation approach and the related numerical techniques, like the lattice methods in pricing financial derivatives. The relevant concepts of the martingal approach are overviewed. There is a special focus on the HJM framework of the interest rate development. The idea that the volatility and the correlation can be traded is a new horizon to the Hungarian capital market.

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Die Vielfalt von möglichen wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen von Banksolvenzproblemen trägt auch dazu bei, dass wissenschaftliche Fragen über die Eigenkapitalregulierung im Bankensektor schon seit einigen Jahren ziemlich intensiv diskutiert werden. Die Effekte von Eigenkapitalregulierung können sich auf zahlreiche Weise zeigen, zum Beispiel ist ein Effekt auf das Kreditzinsniveau auch nicht auszuschließen. Um diesen potenziellen Zusammenhang, an den die frühere Literatur noch nicht fokussierte, klarer analysieren zu können, wird in der vorliegenden Studie ein theoretisches Modell präsentiert, in der eine Verbindung zwischen einem optimalen Bankkreditzinsniveau und der Eigenkapitalregulierung existiert. Die Optimalität von Kreditzinsniveaus wird aus zwei Aspekten betrachtet: als Optimalitätskriterien werden Gewinnmaximierung und Maximierung von Solvenzwahrscheinlichkeit verglichen. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse kann darauf geschlossen werden, dass diese zwei optimale Kreditzinsniveaus nicht identisch sind und unterschiedlich von Eigenkapitalregulierung beeinflusst werden. Nach theoretischen Ergebnissen ist es möglich, dass im Falle einer Erhöhung des Eigenkapitals bei gleichbleibenden Bankeinlagen das gewinnmaximierende Optimum sich nicht ändert, während das zu der Maximierung der Solvenzwahrscheinlichkeit gehörende Optimum sich verringert.

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In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

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Este estudio empírico compara la capacidad de los modelos Vectores auto-regresivos (VAR) sin restricciones para predecir la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés en Colombia -- Se comparan modelos VAR simples con modelos VAR aumentados con factores macroeconómicos y financieros colombianos y estadounidenses -- Encontramos que la inclusión de la información de los precios del petróleo, el riesgo de crédito de Colombia y un indicador internacional de la aversión al riesgo mejora la capacidad de predicción fuera de la muestra de los modelos VAR sin restricciones para vencimientos de corto plazo con frecuencia mensual -- Para vencimientos de mediano y largo plazo los modelos sin variables macroeconómicas presentan mejores pronósticos sugiriendo que las curvas de rendimiento de mediano y largo plazo ya incluyen toda la información significativa para pronosticarlos -- Este hallazgo tiene implicaciones importantes para los administradores de portafolios, participantes del mercado y responsables de las políticas

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This paper studies monetary policy transmission using several statistical tools -- We find that the relationships between the policy interest rate and the financial system’s interest rates are positive and statistically significant, and transmission is complete eight months after policy shocks occur -- The speed of transmission varies according to the type of interest rates -- Transmission is faster for interest rates on loans provided to households, and is particularly rapid and complete for rates on preferential commercial loans -- Transmission is slower for credit card and mortgage rates, due to regulatory issues (interest rate ceilings)

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Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

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An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.