64 resultados para guessing


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Convex potential minimisation is the de facto approach to binary classification. However, Long and Servedio [2008] proved that under symmetric label noise (SLN), minimisation of any convex potential over a linear function class can result in classification performance equivalent to random guessing. This ostensibly shows that convex losses are not SLN-robust. In this paper, we propose a convex, classification-calibrated loss and prove that it is SLN-robust. The loss avoids the Long and Servedio [2008] result by virtue of being negatively unbounded. The loss is a modification of the hinge loss, where one does not clamp at zero; hence, we call it the unhinged loss. We show that the optimal unhinged solution is equivalent to that of a strongly regularised SVM, and is the limiting solution for any convex potential; this implies that strong l2 regularisation makes most standard learners SLN-robust. Experiments confirm the unhinged loss’ SLN-robustness.

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Based on the Aristotelian criterion referred to as 'abductio', Peirce suggests a method of hypothetical inference, which operates in a different way than the deductive and inductive methods. “Abduction is nothing but guessing” (Peirce, 7.219). This principle is of extreme value for the study of our understanding of mathematical self-similarity in both of its typical presentations: relative or absolute. For the first case, abduction incarnates the quantitative/qualitative relationships of a self-similar object or process; for the second case, abduction makes understandable the statistical treatment of self-similarity, 'guessing' the continuity of geometric features to the infinity through the use of a systematic stereotype (for instance, the assumption that the general shape of the Sierpiński triangle continuates identically into its particular shapes). The metaphor coined by Peirce, of an exact map containig itself the same exact map (a map of itself), is not only the most important precedent of Mandelbrot’s problem of measuring the boundaries of a continuous irregular surface with a logarithmic ruler, but also still being a useful abstraction for the conceptualisation of relative and absolute self-similarity, and its mechanisms of implementation. It is useful, also, for explaining some of the most basic geometric ontologies as mental constructions: in the notion of infinite convergence of points in the corners of a triangle, or the intuition for defining two parallel straight lines as two lines in a plane that 'never' intersect.

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A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

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It is commonly believed that visual short-term memory (VSTM) consists of a fixed number of "slots" in which items can be stored. An alternative theory in which memory resource is a continuous quantity distributed over all items seems to be refuted by the appearance of guessing in human responses. Here, we introduce a model in which resource is not only continuous but also variable across items and trials, causing random fluctuations in encoding precision. We tested this model against previous models using two VSTM paradigms and two feature dimensions. Our model accurately accounts for all aspects of the data, including apparent guessing, and outperforms slot models in formal model comparison. At the neural level, variability in precision might correspond to variability in neural population gain and doubly stochastic stimulus representation. Our results suggest that VSTM resource is continuous and variable rather than discrete and fixed and might explain why subjective experience of VSTM is not all or none.

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The nature of the distinction between conscious and unconscious knowledge is a core issue in the implicit learning field. Furthermore, the phenomenological experience associated with having knowledge is central to the conscious or unconscious status of that knowledge. Consistently, Dienes and Scott (2005) measured the conscious or unconscious status of structure knowledge using subjective measures. Believing that one is purely guessing when in fact one knows indicates unconscious knowledge. But unconscious structural knowledge can also be associated with feelings of intuition or familiarity. In this thesis, we explored whether phenomenological feelings, like familiarity, associated with unconscious structural knowledge could be used, paradoxically, to exert conscious control over the use of the knowledge, and whether people could obtain repetition structure knowledge. We also investigated the neural correlates of awareness of knowing, as measured phenomenologically. In study one, subjects were trained on two grammars and then asked to endorse strings from only one of the grammars. Subjects also rated how familiar each string they felt and reported whether or not they used familiarity to make their grammaticality judgment. We found subjects could endorse the strings of just one grammar and ignore the strings from the other. Importantly, when subjects said they were using familiarity, the rated familiarity for test strings consistent with their chosen grammar was greater than that for strings from the other grammar. Familiarity, subjectively defined, is sensitive to intentions and can play a key role in strategic control. In study two, we manipulated the structural characteristic of stings and explored whether participants could learn repetition structures in the grammatical strings. We measured phenomenology again and also ERPs. Deviant letters of ungrammatical strings violating the repetition structure elicited the N2 component; we took this to be an indication of knowledge, whether conscious or not. Strings which were attributed to conscious categories (rules and recollection) rather than phenomenology associated with unconscious structural knowledge (guessing, intuition and familiarity) elicited the P300 component. Different waveforms provided evidence for the neural correlates of different phenomenologies associated with knowledge of an artificial grammar.

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Toivonen, H., Srinivasan, A., King, R. D., Kramer, S. and Helma, C. (2003) Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Toxicology Challenge 2000-2001. Bioinformatics 19: 1183-1193

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Early life stress (ELS) is strongly associated with negative outcomes in adulthood, including reduced motivation and increased negative mood. The mechanisms mediating these relations, however, are poorly understood. We examined the relation between exposure to ELS and reward-related brain activity, which is known to predict motivation and mood, at age 26, in a sample followed since kindergarten with annual assessments. Using functional neuroimaging, we assayed individual differences in the activity of the ventral striatum (VS) during the processing of monetary rewards associated with a simple card-guessing task, in a sample of 72 male participants. We examined associations between a cumulative measure of ELS exposure and VS activity in adulthood. We found that greater levels of cumulative stress during childhood and adolescence predicted lower reward-related VS activity in adulthood. Extending this general developmental pattern, we found that exposure to stress early in development (between kindergarten and grade 3) was significantly associated with variability in adult VS activity. Our results provide an important demonstration that cumulative life stress, especially during this childhood period, is associated with blunted reward-related VS activity in adulthood. These differences suggest neurobiological pathways through which a history of ELS may contribute to reduced motivation and increased negative mood.

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This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We found large effects both theoretically and practically. In two existing serious games random guess scores were found to explain up to 41% of total scores. Monte Carlo simulation of random game play confirmed the substantial impact of randomness on performance. For valid performance assessments, be it in-game or post-game, the effects of randomness should be included to produce re-calibrated scores that can reasonably be interpreted as the players´ achievements.

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Between the Bullet and the Hole is a film centred on the elusive and complex effects of war on women's role in ballistic research and early computing. The film features new and archival high-speed bullet photography, schlieren and electric spark imagery, bullet sound wave imagery, forensic ballistic photography, slide rulers, punch cards, computer diagrams, and a soundtrack by Scanner. Like a frantic animation storyboard, it explores the flickering space between the frames, testing the perceptual mechanics of visual interpolation, the possibility of reading or deciphering the gap between before and after. Interpolation - the main task of the women studying ballistics in WW2 - is the construction or guessing of missing data using only two known data points. The film tries to unpack this gap, open it up to interrogation. It questions how we read, interpolate or construct the gaps between bullet and hole, perpetrator and victim, presence and absence. The project involves exchanges with specialists in this area such as the Cranfield University Forensics department, London-based Forensic Firearms consultancy, the Imperial War Museum, the ENIAC programmers project, the Smithsonian Institute, and Forensic Scientists at Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office (USA). Exhibitions: Solo exhibition at Dallas Contemporary (Texas, Jan-Mar 2016), including newly commissioned lenticular prints and a dual slide projector installation; Group exhibition the Sydney Biennale (Sydney, Mar-June 2016); UK premiere and solo retrospective screening at Whitechapel Gallery (London); forthcoming solo exhibition at Iliya Fridman Gallery (NY, Oct-Dec 2016); Film festivals and screenings: International Film Festival Rotterdam (Jan 2016); Whitechapel Gallery (London Feb 2016); Cornerhouse/Home (Manchester Nov 2016); Public lectures: Whitechapel Gallery with prof. David Alan Grier and Morgan Quaintance; Carriageworks (Sydney) Prof. Douglas Khan; Monash University (Melbourne); Gertrude Space (Melbourne). Reviews and interviews: Artforum, Studio International, Mousse Magazine.

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The Universal Serial Bus (USB) is an extremely popular interface standard for computer peripheral connections and is widely used in consumer Mass Storage Devices (MSDs). While current consumer USB MSDs provide relatively high transmission speed and are convenient to carry, the use of USB MSDs has been prohibited in many commercial and everyday environments primarily due to security concerns. Security protocols have been previously proposed and a recent approach for the USB MSDs is to utilize multi-factor authentication. This paper proposes significant enhancements to the three-factor control protocol that now makes it secure under many types of attacks including the password guessing attack, the denial-of-service attack, and the replay attack. The proposed solution is presented with a rigorous security analysis and practical computational cost analysis to demonstrate the usefulness of this new security protocol for consumer USB MSDs.

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A Universal Serial Bus (USB) Mass Storage Device (MSD), often termed a USB flash drive, is ubiquitously used to store important information in unencrypted binary format. This low cost consumer device is incredibly popular due to its size, large storage capacity and relatively high transfer speed. However, if the device is lost or stolen an unauthorized person can easily retrieve all the information. Therefore, it is advantageous in many applications to provide security protection so that only authorized users can access the stored information. In order to provide security protection for a USB MSD, this paper proposes a session key agreement protocol after secure user authentication. The main aim of this protocol is to establish session key negotiation through which all the information retrieved, stored and transferred to the USB MSD is encrypted. This paper not only contributes an efficient protocol, but also does not suffer from the forgery attack and the password guessing attack as compared to other protocols in the literature. This paper analyses the security of the proposed protocol through a formal analysis which proves that the information is stored confidentially and is protected offering strong resilience to relevant security attacks. The computational cost and communication cost of the proposed scheme is analyzed and compared to related work to show that the proposed scheme has an improved tradeoff for computational cost, communication cost and security.

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Parkinson’s disease is a clinical syndrome manifesting with slowness and instability. As it is a progressive disease with varying symptoms, repeated assessments are necessary to determine the outcome of treatment changes in the patient. In the recent past, a computer-based method was developed to rate impairment in spiral drawings. The downside of this method is that it cannot separate the bradykinetic and dyskinetic spiral drawings. This work intends to construct the computer method which can overcome this weakness by using the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) of tangential velocity. The work is done under supervised learning, so a target class is used which is acquired from a neurologist using a web interface. After reducing the dimension of HHT features by using PCA, classification is performed. C4.5 classifier is used to perform the classification. Results of the classification are close to random guessing which shows that the computer method is unsuccessful in assessing the cause of drawing impairment in spirals when evaluated against human ratings. One promising reason is that there is no difference between the two classes of spiral drawings. Displaying patients self ratings along with the spirals in the web application is another possible reason for this, as the neurologist may have relied too much on this in his own ratings.

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This thesis explores two aspects of mathematical reasoning: affect and gender. I started by looking at the reasoning of upper secondary students when solving tasks. This work revealed that when not guided by an interviewer, algorithmic reasoning, based on memorising algorithms which may or may not be appropriate for the task, was predominant in the students reasoning. Given this lack of mathematical grounding in students reasoning I looked in a second study at what grounds they had for different strategy choices and conclusions. This qualitative study suggested that beliefs about safety, expectation and motivation were important in the central decisions made during task solving.  But are reasoning and beliefs gendered? The third study explored upper secondary school teachers conceptions about gender and students mathematical reasoning. In this study I found that upper secondary school teachers attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning to girls and symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking were assigned to boys. In the fourth and final study I found that students, both male and female, shared their teachers view of rather traditional feminities and masculinities. Remarkably however, this result did not repeat itself when students were asked to reflect on their own behaviour: there were some discrepancies between the traits the students ascribed as gender different and the traits they ascribed to themselves. Taken together the thesis suggests that, contrary to conceptions, girls and boys share many of the same core beliefs about mathematics, but much work is still needed if we should create learning environments that provide better opportunities for students to develop beliefs that guide them towards well-grounded mathematical reasoning. 

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This study looks at how upper secondary school teachers gender stereotype aspects of students' mathematical reasoning. Girls were attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning. Boys were assigned the symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking. 

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This study examined whether providing preschool children with simple groundrules (the importance of being complete, saying „I don‟t know‟, correcting the interviewer and not guessing) would reduce false details in their recall of a staged event. Forty-nine preschool children participated in an event that consisted of two activities. One or two days later they were given a biasing interview that included false suggestions about one of the experienced activities as well as a non-experienced activity. For the other activity, no suggestions were made. Eight, 15, and 22 days after the event, the children were required to recall all three activities in their own words. Immediately prior to their recall, half of the children were provided with the groundrules while the remaining children were not. The children in the control group also participated in a fifth interview in which they received the groundrule instructions. The results revealed that the provision of the groundrules had negligible impact on the accuracy of information provided irrespective of the context or order of the interview or the activity being recalled. The implications of these results are discussed and suggestions for future research are offered.