Aggregating energy supply and demand

Energy usage in general, and electricity usage in particular, are major concerns internationally due to the increased cost of providing energy supplies and the environmental impacts of electricity generation using carbon-based fuels. If a "systems" approach is taken to understanding energy issues then both supply and demand need to be considered holistically. This paper examines two research projects in the energy area with IT tools as key deliverables, one examining supply issues and the other studying demand side issues. The supply side project used hard engineering methods to build the models and software, while the demand side project used a social science approach. While the projects are distinct, there was an overlap in personnel. Comparing the knowledge extraction, model building, implementation and interface issues of these two deliverables identifies both interesting contrasts and commonalities.

Establishing a participatory library model: A Grounded Theory study

Purpose The purpose of this research is to explore the idea of the participatory library in higher education settings. This research aims to address the question, what is a participatory university library? Design/methodology/approach Grounded theory approach was adopted. In-depth individual interviews were conducted with two diverse groups of participants including ten library staff members and six library users. Data collection and analysis were carried out simultaneously and complied with Straussian grounded theory principles and techniques. Findings Three core categories representing the participatory library were found including “community”, “empowerment”, and “experience”. Each category was thoroughly delineated via sub-categories, properties, and dimensions that all together create a foundation for the participatory library. A participatory library model was also developed together with an explanation of model building blocks that provide a deeper understanding of the participatory library phenomenon. Research limitations The research focuses on a specific library system, i.e., academic libraries. Therefore, the research results may not be very applicable to public, special, and school library contexts. Originality/value This is the first empirical study developing a participatory library model. It provides librarians, library managers, researchers, library students, and the library community with a holistic picture of the contemporary library.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Sequence dependence and role of 5'-phosphate in the B to Z transition

Spectroscopic studies on pd(CG)3 and pd(GC)3 have been carried out to elucidate the sequence dependence and effect of free 5'-phosphate on the B to Z transition. Unlike d(CG)3, pd(CG)3 fails to undergo salt-induced B to Z transition at ambient temperature. Model building studies have been carried out to determine the inhibitory role of the 5'-phosphate group, but have been unsuccessful.

Systems between information and knowledge : In a memory management model of an extended enterprise

The research question of this thesis was how knowledge can be managed with information systems. Information systems can support but not replace knowledge management. Systems can mainly store epistemic organisational knowledge included in content, and process data and information. Certain value can be achieved by adding communication technology to systems. All communication, however, can not be managed. A new layer between communication and manageable information was named as knowformation. Knowledge management literature was surveyed, together with information species from philosophy, physics, communication theory, and information system science. Positivism, post-positivism, and critical theory were studied, but knowformation in extended organisational memory seemed to be socially constructed. A memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) and knowformation concept were findings from iterative case studies, covering data, information and knowledge management systems. The cases varied from groups towards extended organisation. Systems were investigated, and administrators, users (knowledge workers) and managers interviewed. The model building required alternative sets of data, information and knowledge, instead of using the traditional pyramid. Also the explicit-tacit dichotomy was reconsidered. As human knowledge is the final aim of all data and information in the systems, the distinction between management of information vs. management of people was harmonised. Information systems were classified as the core of organisational memory. The content of the systems is in practice between communication and presentation. Firstly, the epistemic criterion of knowledge is not required neither in the knowledge management literature, nor from the content of the systems. Secondly, systems deal mostly with containers, and the knowledge management literature with applied knowledge. Also the construction of reality based on the system content and communication supports the knowformation concept. Knowformation belongs to memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) that is divided into horizontal and vertical key dimensions. Vertically, processes deal with content that can be managed, whereas communication can be supported, mainly by infrastructure. Horizontally, the right hand side of the model contains systems, and the left hand side content, which should be independent from each other. A strategy based on the model was defined.

Structural Investigations on Poly(4-hydroxy-L-proline). 1. Theoretical Studies

Model building studies on poly(hydroxypro1ine) indicate that in addition to the well-known helical structure of form A, a left-handed helical structure with trans peptide units and with h = 2.86 A and n = 2.67 (i.e., 8 residues in 3 turns) is also possible. In this structure which is shown to be in agreement with X-ray data of the form B in the next paper, the y-hydroxyl group of an (i + 1)th Hyp residue is hydrogen bonded to the carbonyl oxygen of an (i - 1)th residue. The possibility of a structure with cis peptide units is ruled out. It is shown that both forms A and B are equally favorable from considerations of intramolecular energies. Since form B is further stabilized by intrachain hydrogen bonds, we believe that this is likely to be the ordered conformation for poly(hydroxypro1ine) in water.

Beta-structure of polypeptides in non-aqueous solutions. II. Side-chain orientation

The specific side-chain orientations of the phenyl group in the polypeptides poly-S-benzyl-L-cysteine, poly-S-carbobenzoxy-L-cysteine and poly-O-carbobenzoxy-L-serine in the beta-structure have been studied by spectral measurements in solutions. All the three polypeptides exhibit aromatic CD bands, indicating the asymmetric placement of the side-chain phenyl rings when the polypeptide backbone takes up the antiparallel beta-structure. Supporting evidence for this is derived from n.m.r. spectra of the polypeptides, which show upfield shift of the phenyl protons due to the stacking of the aromatic rings. Molecular model building studies reveal the stacking of alternate phenyl groups along the polypeptide chain.

A Predictive Perfomance Model for Superscalar Processors

Designing and optimizing high performance microprocessors is an increasingly difficult task due to the size and complexity of the processor design space, high cost of detailed simulation and several constraints that a processor design must satisfy. In this paper, we propose the use of empirical non-linear modeling techniques to assist processor architects in making design decisions and resolving complex trade-offs. We propose a procedure for building accurate non-linear models that consists of the following steps: (i) selection of a small set of representative design points spread across processor design space using latin hypercube sampling, (ii) obtaining performance measures at the selected design points using detailed simulation, (iii) building non-linear models for performance using the function approximation capabilities of radial basis function networks, and (iv) validating the models using an independently and randomly generated set of design points. We evaluate our model building procedure by constructing non-linear performance models for programs from the SPEC CPU2000 benchmark suite with a microarchitectural design space that consists of 9 key parameters. Our results show that the models, built using a relatively small number of simulations, achieve high prediction accuracy (only 2.8% error in CPI estimates on average) across a large processor design space. Our models can potentially replace detailed simulation for common tasks such as the analysis of key microarchitectural trends or searches for optimal processor design points.

Simulating fisheries for the assessment of optimum harvesting strategies

Some results of a line of research explored by the author in recent years, and concerning the small-scale fisheries of Mexico are discussed. Clarity of goals for fisheries management is stressed as a departure point before taking any step towards model building. Age-structured simulation models require input data and parameters such as growth rates, natural mortality, age at first capture and maturity, longevity, the longest possible catch records series, and estimates of numbers caught per age group. The link between each cohort and the following can then be established by means of the Ricker stock recruitment or the Beverton-Holt models. Simulation experiments can then be carried out by changing fishing mortality. Whenever data on profits and costs and catch are available, these can also be analyzed. The use of simulation models is examined with emphasis on the benefits derived from their use for fisheries management.

Effect of building integrated photovoltaics on microclimate of urban canopy layer

Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) has potential of becoming the mainstream of renewable energy in the urban environment. BIPV has significant influence on the thermal performance of building envelope and changes radiation energy balance by adding or replacing conventional building elements in urban areas. PTEBU model was developed to evaluate the effect of photovoltaic (PV) system on the microclimate of urban canopy layer. PTEBU model consists of four sub-models: PV thermal model, PV electrical performance model, building energy consumption model, and urban canyon energy budget model. PTEBU model is forced with temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation above the roof level and incorporates detailed data of PV system and urban canyon in Tianjin, China. The simulation results show that PV roof and PV façade with ventilated air gap significantly change the building surface temperature and sensible heat flux density, but the air temperature of urban canyon with PV module varies little compared with the urban canyon of no PV. The PV module also changes the magnitude and pattern of diurnal variation of the storage heat flux and the net radiation for the urban canyon with PV increase slightly. The increase in the PV conversion efficiency not only improves the PV power output, but also reduces the urban canyon air temperature. © 2006.

丘陵油田三间房组储层三维地质模型和砂体预测

This paper is belonging to Chinese Petrochemical Corporation's science and technology project. Although it is difficult, it has important theoretical and practical value. The study was aimed to reveal inhomogeneity of two kinds of reservoirs of fan-shaped delta and braided river by using new theories, new methods and new technology about 3-D model building and reservoir knowledge repository throughout the world, and to build reservoir knowledge repository and 3-D geological model which would predict the type of sand body forming reason and distribution rule in order to improve exploration result in Qiuling oil fields. Multi-discipline theories such as petroleum structure geology, reservoir geology, petroleum geology, sequence geology, logging geology, geomathematics and so on are used as guide. The information of geology, seism, logging and production test is combined. Outcrop area and overlap area are combined. By making full use of computer, stable structure, reservoir geometric shape, spatial distribution and inhomogeneity of bed of interest are investigated, described and characterized. Petroleum pool 3-D static geological model of reservoir knowledge repository was built. Sand body distribution was predicted. It has guided oil development, lowed the investment and improved development benefits. Several results are achieved as follows: (1) Strata framework of Sanjianfang group in Qiuling oil field has been established. (2) Geometric shape, spatial distribution and evolve rule of two different forming reason's reservoir of fan-shaped delta and braided river of Sanjianfang group in Qiuling oil field are discussed. (3) The two kinds of reservoirs have lower pore and permeability and very strong inhomogeneity. (4) Reservoir knowledge repository of two different forming reasons has been built of Sanjianfang group, which includes 5 geological knowledge sublibrary. (5) 3-D geological model of two kinds of forming reason's reservoirs has been built. (6) That same sequence instruction a simulation and probability field were used to predict sand body of Sanjianfang group was put forward. Coincidence rate is high after production test. It shows this method has great popularity value. (7) A set of theories, methods and technologies of knowledge repository of two kinds of reservoir of braided river and fan-shaped delta and 3-D geological model building were finished. (8) A set of theories, methods and technologies of investigating, describing, characterizing and predicting two kinds of oil pool were developed. It gets noticeable economic benefit after exploration. Theory and method about extrusion basin are developed.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs` model under heavy-tailed distributions

The Grubbs` measurement model is frequently used to compare several measuring devices. It is common to assume that the random terms have a normal distribution. However, such assumption makes the inference vulnerable to outlying observations, whereas scale mixtures of normal distributions have been an interesting alternative to produce robust estimates, keeping the elegancy and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. The aim of this paper is to develop an EM-type algorithm for the parameter estimation, and to use the local influence method to assess the robustness aspects of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes, In order to identify outliers and to criticize the model building we use the local influence procedure in a Study to compare the precision of several thermocouples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.