940 resultados para future energy scenario
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Energy is basic to human society, like food, shelter, communication, and mobility. A new international energy landscape is emerging as developing countries create their energy infrastructures and as energy technologies move away from fossil toward more sustainable sources and uses. The 50-year time scale for significant change to the energy landscape implies that the strategic research and development choices we make now ill determine future energy and societal outcomes. The promising opportunities for science and technology discovery and development in energy will be analyzed in the context of vibrant, interactive and rapidly advancing national and global societies.
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For the decades to come can be foreseen that electricity and water will keep be playing a key role in the countries development, both can be considered the most important energy vectors and its control can be crucial for governments, companies and leaders in general. Energy is essential for all human activities and its availability is critical to economic and social development. In particular, electricity, a form of energy, is required to produce goods, to provide medical assistance and basic civic services in education, to assure availability of clean water, to create conducive environment for prosperity and improvement, and to keep an acceptable quality of life. The way in which electricity is generated from different resources varies through the different countries. Nuclear energy controlled within reactors to steam production, gas, fuel-oil and coal fired in power stations, water, solar and wind energy among others are employed, sometimes not very efficiently, to produce electricity. The so call energy mix of an individual country is formed up by the contribution of each resource or form of energy to the electricity generation market of the so country. During the last decade the establishment of proper energy mixes for countries has gained much importance, and energy drivers should enforce long term plans and policies. Hints, reports and guides giving tracks on energy resources contribution are been developed by noticeable organisations like the IEA (International Energy Agency) or the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and the WEC (World Energy Council). This paper evaluates energy issues the market and countries are facing today regarding energy mix scheduling and panorama. This paper revises and seeks to improve methodology available that are applicable on energy mix plan definition. Key Factors are identified, established and assessed through this paper for the common implementation, the themes driving the future energy mix methodology proposal. Those have a clear influence and are closely related to future environmental policies. Key Factors take into consideration sustainability, energy security, social and economic growth, climate change, air quality and social stability. The strength of the Key Factors application on energy system planning to different countries is contingent on country resources, location, electricity demand and electricity generation industry, technology available, economic situation and prospects, energy policy and regulation
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The Smartcity Málaga project is one of Europe?s largest ecoefficient city initiatives. The project has implemented a field trial in 50 households to study the effects of energy monitoring and management technologies on the residential electricity consumption. This poster presents some lessons learned on energy consumption trends, smart clamps reliability and the suitability of power contracted by users, obtained after six months of data analysis.
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The Project arose during a period in which the World was still coming to terms with the effects and implications of the so called 'energy crisis' of 1973/74. Serck Heat Transfer is a manufacturer of heat exchangers which transfer heat between fluids of various sorts. As such the company felt that past and possible future changes in the energy situation could have an impact upon the demand for its products. The thesis represents the first attempt to examine the impact of changes in the energy situation (a major economic variable) on the long term demand for heat exchangers. The scope of the work was limited to the United Kingdom, this being the largest single market for Serek's products. The thesis analyses industrial heat exchanger markets and identifies those trends which are related to both the changing energy situation and the usage of heat exchangers. These trends have been interpreted In terms of projected values of heat exchanger demand. The projections cover the period 197S to the year 2000. Also examined in the thesis is the future energy situation both internationally and nationally and it is found that in the long term there will be increasing pressure on consumers to conserve energy through rising real prices. The possibility of a connection between energy consumption and heat exchanger demand is investigated and no significant correlation found. This appears to be because there are a number of determinants of demand besides energy related factors and also there is a wide diversity of individual markets for heat exchangers. Conclusions are that in all markets, bar one, the changing energy situation should lead to a higher level of heat exchanger demand than would otherwise be the case had the energy situation not changed. It is also pointed out that it is misleading to look at changes in one influence on the demand for a product and ignore others.
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Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan täysin uusiutuvaa energiajärjestelmää Etelä-Karjalan maakunnan alueella, mikä onkin jo tällä hetkellä Suomen uusiutuvin maakunta. Diplomityössä tarkastellaan julkisen sektorin, liikenteen ja rakennusten energian kulutusta mutta teollisuuden energiankäyttö jätetään tarkastelun ulkopuolelle. Työssä tutustutaan tämän hetken Etelä-Karjalan energiajärjestelmään ja sen perusteella tehdään referenssi-skenaario. Tulevaisuuden skenaariot tehdään vuosille 2030 ja 2050. Tulevaisuuden skenaarioissa muutos keskittyy järjestelmän sähköistymiseen ja uusiutuvien tuotantomuotojen integroimiseen järjestelmään. Sähköistyminen kasvattaa sähkönkulutusta, joka pyritään kattamaan uusiutuvilla tuotantomuodoilla, lähinnä tuuli- ja aurinkovoimalla. Liikennesektori rajataan kumipyöräliikenteeseen ja sen muutos tulee olemaan haastavin ja aikaa vievin. Muutokseen pyritään liikennepolttoaineiden tuotannolla maakunnassa sekä sähköautoilulla. Uusiutuva energiajärjestelmä tarvitsee tuotannon ja kysynnän joustoa sekä älyä järjestelmältä. Työssä tarkastellaan myös järjestelmän kustannuksia sekä työllisyysvaikutuksia.
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Wireless power transfer (WPT) and radio frequency (RF)-based energy har- vesting arouses a new wireless network paradigm termed as wireless powered com- munication network (WPCN), where some energy-constrained nodes are enabled to harvest energy from the RF signals transferred by other energy-sufficient nodes to support the communication operations in the network, which brings a promising approach for future energy-constrained wireless network design. In this paper, we focus on the optimal WPCN design. We consider a net- work composed of two communication groups, where the first group has sufficient power supply but no available bandwidth, and the second group has licensed band- width but very limited power to perform required information transmission. For such a system, we introduce the power and bandwidth cooperation between the two groups so that both group can accomplish their expected information delivering tasks. Multiple antennas are employed at the hybrid access point (H-AP) to en- hance both energy and information transfer efficiency and the cooperative relaying is employed to help the power-limited group to enhance its information transmission throughput. Compared with existing works, cooperative relaying, time assignment, power allocation, and energy beamforming are jointly designed in a single system. Firstly, we propose a cooperative transmission protocol for the considered system, where group 1 transmits some power to group 2 to help group 2 with information transmission and then group 2 gives some bandwidth to group 1 in return. Sec- ondly, to explore the information transmission performance limit of the system, we formulate two optimization problems to maximize the system weighted sum rate by jointly optimizing the time assignment, power allocation, and energy beamforming under two different power constraints, i.e., the fixed power constraint and the aver- age power constraint, respectively. In order to make the cooperation between the two groups meaningful and guarantee the quality of service (QoS) requirements of both groups, the minimal required data rates of the two groups are considered as constraints for the optimal system design. As both problems are non-convex and have no known solutions, we solve it by using proper variable substitutions and the semi-definite relaxation (SDR). We theoretically prove that our proposed solution method can guarantee to find the global optimal solution. Thirdly, consider that the WPCN has promising application potentials in future energy-constrained net- works, e.g., wireless sensor network (WSN), wireless body area network (WBAN) and Internet of Things (IoT), where the power consumption is very critical. We investigate the minimal power consumption optimal design for the considered co- operation WPCN. For this, we formulate an optimization problem to minimize the total consumed power by jointly optimizing the time assignment, power allocation, and energy beamforming under required data rate constraints. As the problem is also non-convex and has no known solutions, we solve it by using some variable substitutions and the SDR method. We also theoretically prove that our proposed solution method for the minimal power consumption design guarantees the global optimal solution. Extensive experimental results are provided to discuss the system performance behaviors, which provide some useful insights for future WPCN design. It shows that the average power constrained system achieves higher weighted sum rate than the fixed power constrained system. Besides, it also shows that in such a WPCN, relay should be placed closer to the multi-antenna H-AP to achieve higher weighted sum rate and consume lower total power.
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Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.
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Theawareness that fossil fuels exist in limited quantities has stimulated research into energy production from renewable sources. Future energy sources! should! be! plentiful! with! negligible! impact! on! the! environment.! Hydrogen!has!the!potential!to!satisfy!these!requirements.!Nevertheless,!current! methods! of! H2! production! rely! on! nonOrenewable! resources.! Biological! H2! production! from! sunlight! or! biomass! is! an! appealing! alternative! to! current! production!methods.!!(...)
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Exploramos, en este artículo, el desarrollo y los resultados iniciales de una metodología innovadora que, usando la metáfora y el sentido del humor, crea un espacio narrativo en un contexto de formación universitaria en competencia social que favorece el proceso de aprendizaje. La experiencia consiste en vincular un escenario metafórico al escenario académico y al futuro escenario profesional. En el artículo se describen los ingredientes de la metáfora utilizada (la fiesta de cumpleaños) y sus vínculos con las competencias trabajadas en la asignatura de Habilidades sociales en la Facultad de Educación Social y Trabajo Social Pere Tarrés (URL). La valoración del profesorado y de los estudiantes la avala como una práctica educativa de éxito cuyos ingredientes pueden ser generalizados a otros contextos formativos.
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S'inscrivant dans le domaine de l'analyse des relations temporelles dans les textes, la présente étude est consacrée à la notion du futur définie en tant qu'anticipation sur les événements à venir dans le récit. Ainsi, la recherche en question se propose de mettre en lumière les différents mécanismes d'anticipation propres aux récits d'aventures au Moyen Âge. Recourant aux moyens heuristiques existants (les bases de la théorie de la réception telle qu'elle est représentée dans les travaux de Jauss, Eco et Greimas), cette thèse se concentre sur l'étude du prologue de l'oeuvre littéraire dont elle élabore une grille de lecture particulière qui tient compte de la complexité de la notion du futur envisagée aux plans grammatical (formes verbales du futur), rhétorique (la figure de la prolepse) et littéraire (les scénarios et les isotopies). La démarche de la lecture détaillée du prologue adoptée au cours de ce travail s'applique d'abord au Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes, texte fondateur du corpus, qui constitue, pour parler avec Philippe Walter, un vrai « drame du temps ». L'étude des mécanismes d'anticipation mis en place dans le prologue se prolonge ensuite dans les chapitres consacrés à Claris et Laris et au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala, deux réécritures du célèbre roman du maître champenois. Datant, respectivement, du XIIIe et du début du XVIe siècle, ces oeuvres permettent de saisir le chemin parcouru par le futur dans son aspect thématique et diachronique, ce qui est particulièrement propice au repérage des critères qui influencent l'attente du lecteur par rapport aux événements à venir au fil des siècles. Ainsi, à côté des moyens d'expression « standards » du futur (scénarios intertextuels et isotopies), la présente recherche fait apparaître d'autres facteurs qui influencent l'anticipation, notamment le procédé de la disputatio, le recours à la satire, la démarche de l'engagement indirect et l'opposition vers/prose. La seconde partie de la thèse qui traite, d'un côté, des récits consacrés à la fée Mélusine de Jean d'Arras et de Coudrette, du Livre du Cuer d'amours espris de René d'Anjou de l'autre, sert à vérifier dans quelle mesure la démarche choisie s'applique à des oeuvres du Moyen Âge tardif qui combinent des éléments empruntés à la tradition antérieure avec des éléments d'autre provenance. L'analyse de Mélusine et du Livre du Cuer conduit à ajouter deux facteurs supplémentaires qui influencent l'attente du lecteur, à savoir la démarche de l'engagement partiel et le recours au genre judiciaire. Cette étude démontre que le traitement du futur est d'un enjeu capital pour lire les textes du Moyen Âge, car il permet au lecteur, dès le prologue, de reconnaître la fin vers laquelle tend le récit et de faire par là- même une lecture enrichie, supérieure à d'autres. Telling the Future in the Middle Ages : from the Prologue to the Narrative. From Chrétien de Troyes ' Chevalier au Lion to Pierre Sala 's Chevalier au Lion. Part of the analyses of the time based relations within the texts, the present study deals with the notion of future characterized as an anticipation of the events to come in the narrative. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to bring to light the various mechanisms of anticipation peculiar to the narratives of adventures in the Middle Ages. Making the use of the existing heuristic instruments (the bases of the theory of the reception as it presents itself in the works by Jauss, Eco and Greimas), this thesis is dedicated to the study of the prologue of the work of fiction by means of a particular key for reading which takes into account the complexity of the notion of future with regard to its grammatical side (future tenses), to its rhetorical side (prolepse) and to its literary side (scenario and isotopy). First of all, the close reading of the prologue used in this work is applied to Chrétien de Troyes's Chevalier au Lion (Lion Knight), the founding text of our literary corpus, which represents, according to Philippe Walter, the real « drama of Time ». Then, the study of the mechanisms of anticipation in the prologue is carried over to the chapters devoted to Claris et Laris and to Pierre Sala's Chevalier au Lion, two romances that rewrite Chrétien de Troyes' famous work. Written, respectively, in the XIIIth and in the beginning of the XVI century, these romances enable the reader to ascertain the changes in the manner of telling the future from the thematic and diachronic point of view : this is particularly convenient to the identification of the criteria which influence the reader's expectations relative to the future events in the course of the centuries. Therefore, next to the « standard » means of expression of future (intertextual scenario and isotopy), the present study reveals other factors which influence the anticipation, in particular the method of the disputatio, the use of the satire, the approach of the indirect commitment and the verse/prose opposition. The second part of the thesis which deals with the narratives concerning the fairy Melusine written by Jean d'Arras and by Coudrette on one hand, with René d'Anjou's Livre du Cuer d'amours espris on the other hand, is used to verify to what extent the chosen approach applies to the works of fiction of the Late Middle Ages that combine the elements from the previous tradition with the elements of other origin. The analysis of Melusine's romances and of the Livre du Cuer brings us to add two new factors which influence the reader's expectations : the approach of the partial commitment, and the use of the legal discourse. This study demonstrates that the manner of telling the future is of the utmost importance to read the texts of the Middle Ages, because it enables the reader to know the end of the story from the very beginning, from the prologue, thus leading to a richer and superior reading.
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En aquest article es pretén explicar breument la viabilitat de la futura gestió i utilització de la biomassa forestal de Bellver de Cerdanya mitjançant un district heating al futur barri del Pla de Tomet. Les particularitats per les quals aquest poble és ideal per a aquest projecte són que l'ajuntament és propietari de gairebé un 90% dels boscos situats en aquest municipi; i que alhora ja ha realitzat diverses instal·lacions que utilitzen la biomassa forestal per a calefacció i ACS. La situació econòmica de la comarca és bastant complicada, ja que s'ha basat en el sector turístic i la construcció, però ambdós no passen pel millor moment. El projecte serviria per donar un valor a la biomassa forestal que fins ara no s'ha donat, i alhora s'intenta buscar nous inputs econòmics per a la Cerdanya. En aquest treball també s'analitza quins haurien de ser els futurs tractaments que s'haurien d'aplicar a la forest, tenint en compte les activitats que es realitzen actualment, i evitant en tot moment possibles efectes negatius, com podria ser la sobreexplotació. També es dedica una part del projecte a explicar els sistemes per obtenir i gestionar de forma correcta la biomassa. A continuació es tracta la part més tècnica, realitzant una estimació del possible futur consum energètic del barri del Pla de Tomet, encara no construït; i decidint quins sistema de calderes seria el més adequat, el tipus d’emmagatzematge més apropiat i els passos a seguir per millorar el rendiment del procés de la gestió i extracció de la biomassa. Seguint tots aquests passos s'arriba a la conclusió que aprofitar la biomassa forestal és millor solució que utilitzar combustibles fòssils. A part dels obvis beneficis medi ambientals, també és millor a nivell econòmic, tant pels futurs veïns com per l'ajuntament.
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Työssä käsitellään Itämeren rahtiliikennettä ja sen kehitykseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Työn ajankohtaisuutta on lisännyt Euroopan unionin laajentuminen toukokuussa 2004, jolloin Viro, Latvia, Liettua ja Puola liittyivät kaikki EU:hun. Työn teoriaosuus painottuu tulevaisuudentutkimukseen ja erityisesti skenaariotutkimukseen. Työssä on esitetty kahdenlaisia skenaarioita. Toisissa käsitellä Suomesta ja Ruotsista Baltian maihin suuntautuvaa rahtiliikennettä. Skenaariot on ulottuvat aina vuoteen 2011 asti. Toiset skenaariot puolestaan käsittelevät Suomen ja Puolan välisen rahtiliikenteen tulevaisuutta. Baltian skenaarioissa korostuu Venäjän suuri rooli. Venäjälle suuntautuva transitoliikenne on kaikille Baltian maille hyvin tärkeää. Sen määrän kehitys kuitenkin riippuu hyvin paljon Venäjän omien satamien sekä Venäjän talouden kehityksestä. Venäjän taloudellinen kehitys säätelee myös hyvin paljon ympäristön kehitystä. Baltian liikenteen kehittymistä säätelee myös vahvasti koko Itä-Euroopan sekä Valko-Venäjän ja Ukrainan liikenteen kehitys. Euroopan unionin jäsenyys tuo omat lisänsä kehityksen suunnille erilaisten tukien ja kehitysprojektien mukana. Puolan skenaarioissa korostuu Puolan maantieteellisen sijainnin merkitys keskellä Eurooppaa. Paineet Saksan ruuhkaongelmien purkamisen ja itäisen Euroopan nopean talouskasvun myötä keskittyvät Puolan liikenteeseen. Puolan maaliikenneinfrastruktuuri vaatii suuria kehitysprojekteja, joita rahoittamaan tarvitaan etenkin Euroopan Unionia. Puolan valtion suuri asukaspotentiaali tekee siitä myös erityisen kiinnostavan sijoituskohteen ulkomaisille investoijille. Myös tämä osaltaan lisää Puolan liikennettä. Sekä Puolassa, että Baltiassa eletään vahvan kasvun aikaa. Tämä tekee molemmista mielenkiintoisen vaihtoehdon liikennöintikohteeksi.
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Background:Average energies of nuclear collective modes may be efficiently and accurately computed using a nonrelativistic constrained approach without reliance on a random phase approximation (RPA). Purpose: To extend the constrained approach to the relativistic domain and to establish its impact on the calibration of energy density functionals. Methods: Relativistic RPA calculations of the giant monopole resonance (GMR) are compared against the predictions of the corresponding constrained approach using two accurately calibrated energy density functionals. Results: We find excellent agreement at the 2% level or better between the predictions of the relativistic RPA and the corresponding constrained approach for magic (or semimagic) nuclei ranging from 16 O to 208 Pb. Conclusions: An efficient and accurate method is proposed for incorporating nuclear collective excitations into the calibration of future energy density functionals.
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Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa Sankar Marketing Oy:lle normatiivinen, skenaarioperustainen toimintamalli tulevaisuudenhallintaan. Menetelmällisesti tavoitteena oli kokonaisuuden hallittavuus. Yleiset skenaariot (ongelmien kasautuminen, tietoyhteiskunta hyvinvointiyhteiskuntana ja markkinavetoinen kehitys) toimivat näkökulmien aukaisijoina. Tulevaisuustaulukkomuotoinen väljästi kohdennettu skenaario rakennettiin tulevaisuusstudion, lehti- ja kirjasurveyn avulla. Taulukosta analysoitiin rakenteellisella- ja vaikuttavuusanalyysilla tärkeimmät muuttujat esille. Empiiriset tulokset: 1. Sankar Marketing Oy:n missio ja visiot rakennettiin tärkeimpien muuttujien, paradigman ja yrityksessä vallitsevien arvojen avulla. 2. Kasvulle, henkilöstölle ja markkinoinnille määritettiin visioita tukevat pitkän aikavälin strategiset linjaukset, jotka arvotettiin strategiaskenaarion avulla. 3. Toimenpidesuunnitelmat muodostivat kehitysurien polun bas-menetelmällä analysoidusta nykytilasta pitkän tähtäimen visioon. Uutuusarvoa tutkimukseen tuo toimintamallin uskottavuus, joka saatiin aikaiseksi yhdistämällä valittujen metodien rajapinnat aukottomaksi päättelyketjuksi.
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The aim of this thesis is to create the energy balance from county of South Savo and 20 municipalities comprising the year 2006. The energy balance is restricted to county and municipality borders. Purpose of energy balance is to clarify the present state of energy supply and present information for future decisions. The main objectives for the future are e.g. replacing oil with renewable energy sources and exploiting the forest reserves of South Savo more effectively. Today South Savo is known as being one of the forerunners in use of renewable energy. The growing demand for energy is in South Savo mostly covered with renewable energy sources such as forest chips. The initial data for this thesis is gathered from local energy companies and energy producers. This thesis also exploits formerly made energy balances, publications and statistic from different organisations. The literature study of thesis begins with the basic information about South Savo and energy sources used in the year 2006. Following the thesis includes the energy balance consisting of primary energy sources and consumption of energy. Rest of the thesis includes facts about carbon dioxide emissions, future energy sources and conclusions of results, reliability and expected use of this thesis. Results of this thesis define well the present state of South Savo and are in line with county goals. The results will be used as an aid for policy-making and for considering the condition of current energy supply in South Savo. The method of doing this energy balance can be adapted for other counties as well.