Análise dos efeitos económicos das opções de gestāo da pescaria de camarāo de águas pouco profundas

The paper deals with the proper management of fishing resources of shrimps in shallow waters, those currently constitute the main source of foreign currency trade of the country. The analysis of the level of the productive sector is presented by the local Institute of Fisheries Research.

Corporate governance failure and its impact on National Australia Bank's performance

The National Australia Bank (NAB) is the largest financial services institution listed on the Australian stock exchange and is within the 30 most profitable financial services organisation in the world. In January 2004, the bank disclosed to the public that it had identified losses relating to unauthorised trading in foreign currency options amounting to AUD360 million. This foreign exchange debacle was classified as operational risk, the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people, or systems and reiterated the importance of corporate governance for banks. Concurrent issues of National Australia Bank’s AUD4.1 billion loss on US HomeSide loans in 2001, the degree of strength of their risk management practices and lack of auditor independence, were raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004, reinforcing the view that corporate governance had not been given the priority it deserved over a number of years. This paper will assess and critically analyse the impact of corporate governance failure by management and Board of Directors on NAB’s performance over the years 2001-2005.

Corporate governance failure and its impact on National Australia Bank's performance

The National Australia Bank (NAB) is the largest financial services institution listed on the Australian stock exchange and is within the 30 most profitable financial services organisation in the world. In January 2004, the bank disclosed to the public that it had identified losses relating to unauthorised trading in foreign currency options amounting to AUD360 million. Thisforeign exchange debacle was classified as operational risk, the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people, or systems and reiterated the importance of corporate governance for banks. Concurrent issues of National Australia Bank's AUD4.1 billion loss on US HomeSide loans in 2001, the degree of strength of their risk management practices and lack of auditor independence, were raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004, reinforcing the view that corporate governance had not been given the priority it deserved over a number of years. This paper will assess and critically analyse the impact of corporate governance failure by management and Board of Directors on NAB's performance over the years 2001-2005.

Leadership, culture and employee deceit : the case of the National Australia Bank

The National Australia Bank (NAB), one of Australia's largest banks, announced losses in 2004 of AUD$360 million due to unauthorised foreign currency trading activities by four employees who incurred and deceptively concealed the losses. The NAB had in place risk limits and supervision to prevent trading desks ever reaching positions of this magnitude. However, the risk management policies and procedures proved ineffective. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the deceit, via a content analysis of official investigative reports and other published documents, to determine the extent to which the Bank's culture and leadership may have influenced the rogue traders' behaviour. The findings suggest that cultural issues, and the role played by the Bank's leaders, were influential in creating a profit-driven culture that ultimately impacted the Bank's foreign exchange operating activities.

Corporate governance, board responsibilities and financial performance : the National Bank of Australia

This paper examines board responsibilities and accountability by management and Board of Directors in relation to the National Australia Bank's (NABs) performance. The NAB, an international financial service provider within the top thirty most profitable banks in the world, is compared with the Australian major banks. The evidence suggests that NABs poor performance was consistent with a lack of accountability, poor corporate governance and board dysfunction associated with fraudulent currency trading and the subsequent AUD360 million foreign currency losses. The NAB's performance is investigated by utilising accounting-based measures of profitability and cost efficiency as proxies for performance. Following the foreign currency trading losses in 2004 the NAB under-performed the other major Australian banks in terms of profits, cost to income ratio and growth in assets. In terms of profitability and cost efficiency NAB had the lowest ROE and ROA with a 19.7% fall in net profit and the highest cost to income ratio of 5 7.4% of any of the five largest banks. This case study provides an Australian example of poor corporate governance and suggests that financial institutions and regulators can learn from the NAB's experience. Failure to have top-down accountability can have significant impact on over-all performance, profitability and reputation. In particular, it suggests that management and Boards need to review their risk management procedures and regulators need to be more pro-active in their prudential oversight of financial institutions.

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis

In this paper we study the interaction between macroeconomic environment and firms’ balance sheet effects in Brazil during the 1990’s. We start by assessing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on firms’ debt composition in Brazil. We found that larger firms tend to change debt currency composition more in response to a change in the exchange rate risk than small firms. We then proceed to investigate if and how exchange rate balance sheet effects affected the firms’ investment decisions. We test directly the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment. Contrary to earlier findings (Bleakley and Cowan, 2002), we found that firms more indebted in foreign currency tend to invest less when there is an exchange rate devaluation. We tried different controls for the competitiveness effect. First, we control directly for the effect of the exchange rate on exports and imported inputs. We then pursue an alternative investigation strategy, inspired by the credit channel literature. According to this perspective, Tobin’s q can provide an adequate control for the competitiveness effect on investment. Our results provide supporting evidence for imperfect capital markets, and for a negative exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil. The results concerning the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment are statistically significant and robust across the different specifications. We tested the results across different periods, classified according to the macroeconomic environment. Our findings suggest that the negative exchange rate balance sheet effect we found in the whole sample is due to the floating exchange rate period. We also found that exchange rate devaluations have important negative impact on both cash flows and sales of indebted firms. Furthermore, the impact of exchange rate variations is asymmetric, and the significant effect detected when no asymmetry is imposed is engendered by exchange rate devaluations.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

In this paper we revisit the relationship between the equity and the forward premium puzzles. We construct return-based stochastic discount factors under very mild assumptions and check whether they price correctly the equity and the foreign currency risk premia. We avoid log-linearizations by using moments restrictions associated with euler equations to test the capacity of our return-based stochastic discount factors to price returns on the relevant assets. Our main finding is that a pricing kernel constructed only using information on American domestic assets accounts for both domestic and international stylized facts that escape consumption based models. In particular, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the foreign currency risk premium has zero price when the instrument is the own current value of the forward premium.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

We build a pricing kernel using only US domestic assets data and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our stochastic discount factor as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)'s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)’s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

O mercado de derivativos cambiais no Brasil e suas tendências

Com a entrada do regime cambial flutuante no Brasil a partir de 1999, o mercado de derivativos cambiais se desenvolveu muito. A crescente demanda das empresas e instituições financeiras pelos produtos de hedge cambial junto a um novo panorama econômico mundial foram as causas desse desenvolvimento. Esse trabalho procura encontrar tendências para o mercado de derivativos cambiais brasileiro estimando parâmetros através de regressões entre séries não-estacionárias, porém cointegradas. E utilizado o modelo de correção de erros para fazer as previsões. Os resultados mostram que o crescimento do mercado ocorre em função da corrente de comércio exterior e PIB, que os produtos mais utilizados para operações de curto e longo prazos tendem a ser o dólar futuro e as opções cambiais e que, no futuro, algumas outras moedas terão participação significativa no mercado brasileiro.

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by comparing this out-of-sample results with the one obtained performing an in-sample exercise, where the return-based SDF captures sources of risk of a representative set of developed and emerging economies government bonds. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

Impacto do IOF sobre composição de dívida e investimento das empresas brasileiras

Este trabalho investiga como os controles de capitais praticados no Brasil através da imposição do Imposto sobre Operações Financeiras (IOF) sobre empréstimos externos em 2011 e 2012 afetaram decisões em âmbito financeiro empresarial. As principais questões abordadas são: As empresas brasileiras com financiamento de curto prazo em moeda estrangeira investiram menos após a imposição do IOF sobre empréstimo externo? Elas alongaram suas dívidas em moeda estrangeira, ou seja, mudaram a composição, mas não o total de dívida? Elas reduziram a dívida externa total, aumentando a dívida doméstica? Para responder a essas perguntas, foi adotado o método de diferenças-em-diferenças. Os resultados encontrados sustentam que as empresas brasileiras que tinham passivos externos de curto prazo antes da adoção do IOF não diminuíram seus investimentos significativamente mais do que as empresas que não foram diretamente afetadas por tal medida de controle, nem alteraram mais a proporção de endividamento externo sobre dívida total. Não obstante, os resultados apontam para um maior alongamento das dívidas em moeda estrangeira.

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.