Technical note: Preliminary estimation of rockfall runout zones

Rockfall propagation areas can be determined using a simple geometric rule known as shadow angle or energy line method based on a simple Coulomb frictional model implemented in the CONEFALL computer program. Runout zones are estimated from a digital terrain model (DTM) and a grid file containing the cells representing rockfall potential source areas. The cells of the DTM that are lowest in altitude and located within a cone centered on a rockfall source cell belong to the potential propagation area associated with that grid cell. In addition, the CONEFALL method allows estimation of mean and maximum velocities and energies of blocks in the rockfall propagation areas. Previous studies indicate that the slope angle cone ranges from 27° to 37° depending on the assumptions made, i.e. slope morphology, probability of reaching a point, maximum run-out, field observations. Different solutions based on previous work and an example of an actual rockfall event are presented here.

The cases of June 2000, November 2002 and September 2002 as examples of Mediterranean floods

Four flood events that affected three different countries are here described in terms of meteorological genesis and in terms of consequences on the population and on the territory. Each event is a good representative of a class of phenomena that produce important effects on the urban and extra-urban tissue and that must be taken into account in an optic of civil protection and risk evaluation. This is the subject of the HYDROPTIMET project, part of the Interreg IIIB program, which is collocated in the framework of the prevention of natural hazards and, in particular, those related to severe meteo-hydrological events. This paper aims at being a general introduction of the four events which are the subject of more detailed studies, already published or under submission.

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Traffic Control in Work Zones with Edge Drop-Offs, 2002

Pavement and shoulder edge drop-offs commonly occur in work zones as the result of overlays, pavement replacement, or shoulder construction. The depth of these elevation differentials can vary from approximately one inch when a flexible pavement overlay is applied to several feet where major reconstruction is undertaken. The potential hazards associated with pavement edge differentials depend on several factors including depth of the drop-off, shape of the pavement edge, distance from traveled way, vehicle speed, traffic mix, volume, and other factors. This research was undertaken to review current practices in other states for temporary traffic control strategies addressing lane edge differentials and to analyze crash data and resultant litigation related to edge drop-offs. An objective was to identify cost-effective practices that would minimize the potential for and impacts of edge drop crashes in work zones. Considerable variation in addressing temporary traffic control in work zones with edge drop-off exposure was found among the states surveyed. Crashes related to pavement edge drop-offs in work zones do not commonly occur in the state of Iowa, but some have resulted in significant tort claims and settlements. The use of benefit/cost analysis may provide guidance in selection of an appropriate mitigation and protection of edge drop-off conditions. Development and adoption of guidelines for design of appropriate traffic control for work zones that include edge drop-off exposure, particularly identifying effective use of temporary barrier rail, may be beneficial in Iowa.

Traffic Management Strategies for Merge Area in Rural Interstate Work Zones, CTRE 97-12, 1999

The Iowa Department of Transportation, like many other state transportation agencies, is experiencing growing congestion and traffic delays in work zones on rural interstate highways. The congestion results in unproductive and wasteful delays for both motorists and commercial vehicles. It also results in hazardous conditions where vehicle stopped in queues on rural interstate highways are being approached by vehicles upstream at very high speeds. The delays also result in driver frustration, making some drivers willing to take unsafe risks in an effort to bypass delays. To reduce the safety hazards and unproductive delays of congested rural interstate work zones, the Iowa Department of Transportation would like to improve its traffic management strategies at these locations. Applying better management practices requires knowledge of the traffic flow properties and driver behavior in and around work zones, and knowledge of possible management strategies. The project reported here and in a companion report documents research which seeks to better understand traffic flow behavior at rural interstate highway work zones and to estimate the traffic carrying capacity of work zone lane closures. In addition, this document also reports on technology available to better manage traffic in and around work zones.

Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

The 20 February 2010 Madeira flash-floods: synoptic analysis and extreme rainfall assessment

This study aims to characterise the rainfall exceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 February 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic incidence, contributing to understand the flash-flood dynamics and the type and spatial distribution of the associated impacts. The exceptionality of the rainstorm is further confirmed by the return period associated with the daily precipitation registered at the two long-term record stations, with 146.9 mm observed in the city of Funchal and 333.8 mm on the mountain top, corresponding to an estimated return period of approximately 290 yr and 90 yr, respectively. Furthermore, the synoptic associated situation responsible for the flash-floods is analysed using different sources of information, e.g., weather charts, reanalysis data, Meteosat images and radiosounding data, with the focus on two main issues: (1) the dynamical conditions that promoted such anomalous humidity availability over the Madeira region on 20 February 2010 and (2) the uplift mechanism that induced deep convection activity.

A relação entre o social e o natural nas abordagens de hazards e de desastres

O artigo aborda as teorias dos Hazards e dos Desastres. Nos últimos anos estas duas tradições teóricas têm recebido novos impulsos pela renovação de seus marcos de referência conceitual. Construídas em torno de uma longa tradição de pesquisa empírica, estas teorias explicam os impactos provocados por fenômenos como enchentes, terremotos, tornados e epidemias mediante a integração analítica das dimensões natural e social. Neste sentido, seu estudo pode fornecer subsídios para a interpretação destes problemas no Brasil.

Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria

In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) in Algeria (south Mediterranean Sea) has been assessed. CI is an index related to the rainfall intensity and erosive capacity; therefore, this index is of great interest for studies on torrential rainfall and floods. Forty-two daily rainfall series based on high-quality and fairly regular rainfall records for the period from 1970 to 2008 were used. The daily precipitation CI results allowed the identification of three climate zones: the northern country, characterized by coastal regions with CI values between 0.59 and 0.63; the highlands, with values between 0.57 and 0.62, except for the region of Biskra (CI = 0.70); and the southern region of the country, with high rainfall concentrations with values between 0.62 and 0.69.

Applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems in geomorphological studies: Safaga - El Quseir area, Red Sea coast, Egypt as an example

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten sind Fernerkundung und GIS in den Geowissenschaften zunehmend wichtiger geworden, um die konventionellen Methoden von Datensammlung und zur Herstellung von Landkarten zu verbessern. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Anwendung von Fernerkundung und geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) für geomorphologische Untersuchungen. Durch die Kombination beider Techniken ist es vor allem möglich geworden, geomorphologische Formen im Überblick und dennoch detailliert zu erfassen. Als Grundlagen werden in dieser Arbeit topographische und geologische Karten, Satellitenbilder und Klimadaten benutzt. Die Arbeit besteht aus 6 Kapiteln. Das erste Kapitel gibt einen allgemeinen Überblick über den Untersuchungsraum. Dieser umfasst folgende morphologische Einheiten, klimatischen Verhältnisse, insbesondere die Ariditätsindizes der Küsten- und Gebirgslandschaft sowie das Siedlungsmuster beschrieben. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit der regionalen Geologie und Stratigraphie des Untersuchungsraumes. Es wird versucht, die Hauptformationen mit Hilfe von ETM-Satellitenbildern zu identifizieren. Angewandt werden hierzu folgende Methoden: Colour Band Composite, Image Rationing und die sog. überwachte Klassifikation. Kapitel 3 enthält eine Beschreibung der strukturell bedingten Oberflächenformen, um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Tektonik und geomorphologischen Prozessen aufzuklären. Es geht es um die vielfältigen Methoden, zum Beispiel das sog. Image Processing, um die im Gebirgskörper vorhandenen Lineamente einwandfrei zu deuten. Spezielle Filtermethoden werden angewandt, um die wichtigsten Lineamente zu kartieren. Kapitel 4 stellt den Versuch dar, mit Hilfe von aufbereiteten SRTM-Satellitenbildern eine automatisierte Erfassung des Gewässernetzes. Es wird ausführlich diskutiert, inwieweit bei diesen Arbeitsschritten die Qualität kleinmaßstäbiger SRTM-Satellitenbilder mit großmaßstäbigen topographischen Karten vergleichbar ist. Weiterhin werden hydrologische Parameter über eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse des Abflussregimes einzelner Wadis erfasst. Der Ursprung von Entwässerungssystemen wird auf der Basis geomorphologischer und geologischer Befunde interpretiert. Kapitel 5 befasst sich mit der Abschätzung der Gefahr episodischer Wadifluten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres jährlichen Auftretens bzw. des Auftretens starker Fluten im Abstand mehrerer Jahre wird in einer historischen Betrachtung bis 1921 zurückverfolgt. Die Bedeutung von Regentiefs, die sich über dem Roten Meer entwickeln, und die für eine Abflussbildung in Frage kommen, wird mit Hilfe der IDW-Methode (Inverse Distance Weighted) untersucht. Betrachtet werden außerdem weitere, regenbringende Wetterlagen mit Hilfe von Meteosat Infrarotbildern. Genauer betrachtet wird die Periode 1990-1997, in der kräftige, Wadifluten auslösende Regenfälle auftraten. Flutereignisse und Fluthöhe werden anhand von hydrographischen Daten (Pegelmessungen) ermittelt. Auch die Landnutzung und Siedlungsstruktur im Einzugsgebiet eines Wadis wird berücksichtigt. In Kapitel 6 geht es um die unterschiedlichen Küstenformen auf der Westseite des Roten Meeres zum Beispiel die Erosionsformen, Aufbauformen, untergetauchte Formen. Im abschließenden Teil geht es um die Stratigraphie und zeitliche Zuordnung von submarinen Terrassen auf Korallenriffen sowie den Vergleich mit anderen solcher Terrassen an der ägyptischen Rotmeerküste westlich und östlich der Sinai-Halbinsel.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Floods of the Upper Danube River and Its Tributaries and Their Impact on Urban Economies (c. 1350–1600): The Examples of the Towns of Krems/Stein and Wels (Austria)

This paper examines the impact of disastrous and ‘ordinary’ floods on human societies in what is now Austria. The focus is on urban areas and their neighbourhoods. Examining institutional sources such as accounts of the bridge masters, charters, statutes and official petitions, it can be shown that city communities were well acquainted with this permanent risk: in fact, an office was established for the restoration of bridges and the maintenance of water defences and large depots for timber and water pipes ensured that the reconstruction of bridges and the system of water supply could start immediately after the floods had subsided. Carpenters and similar groups gained 10 to 20 per cent of their income from the repair of bridges and other flood damage. The construction of houses in endangered zones was adapted in order to survive the worst case experiences. Thus, we may describe those communities living along the central European rivers as ‘cultures of flood management’. This special knowledge vanished, however, from the mid-nineteenth century onwards, when river regulations gave the people a false feeling of security.