Full diversity product codes for block erasure and block fading channels

We show how to build full-diversity product codes under both iterative encoding and decoding over non-ergodic channels, in presence of block erasure and block fading. The concept of a rootcheck or a root subcode is introduced by generalizing the same principle recently invented for low-density parity-check codes. We also describe some channel related graphical properties of the new family of product codes, a familyreferred to as root product codes.

Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Unified formalism for non-autonomous mechanical systems

We present a unified geometric framework for describing both the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formalisms of regular and non-regular time-dependent mechanical systems, which is based on the approach of Skinner and Rusk (1983). The dynamical equations of motion and their compatibility and consistency are carefully studied, making clear that all the characteristics of the Lagrangian and the Hamiltonian formalisms are recovered in this formulation. As an example, it is studied a semidiscretization of the nonlinear wave equation proving the applicability of the proposed formalism.

On the configuration of Herman rings of meromorphic functions

We prove some results concerning the possible configuration s of Herman rings for transcendental meromorphic functions. We show that one pole is enough to obtain cycles of Herman rings of arbitrary period a nd give a sufficient condition for a configuration to be realizable.

Sistemes lineals: una aproximació a algun dels seus conceptes i problemes rellevants

L'objectiu que m'he proposat al preparar aquesta exposicióha estat el de mostrar. per una banda, com alguns delsproblemes bàsics de la teoria de Sistemes Dinàmics Linealstenen una resposta senzilla en termes de l' Álgebra lineal i,d'altra, com alguns problemes importants d'aquesta teorias'entronquen amb conceptes i tècniques bàsiques de la geometriai la topologia

Modelos dinámicos en finanzas

El problema de la modelización dinámica enfinanzas tiene mucho que ver con el tipo deproblema que se pretende estudiar. Es preciso teneren cuenta el subyacente así como las magnitudesque se pretende estimar para elegir el modeloadecuado.-

Global periodicity conditions for maps and recurrences via Normal Forms

We face the problem of characterizing the periodic cases in parametric families of (real or complex) rational diffeomorphisms having a fixed point. Our approach relies on the Normal Form Theory, to obtain necessary conditions for the existence of a formal linearization of the map, and on the introduction of a suitable rational parametrization of the parameters of the family. Using these tools we can find a finite set of values p for which the map can be p-periodic, reducing the problem of finding the parameters for which the periodic cases appear to simple computations. We apply our results to several two and three dimensional classes of polynomial or rational maps. In particular we find the global periodic cases for several Lyness type recurrences

Integrability and non-integrability of periodic non-autonomous Lyness recurrences (revised and enlarged version)

This paper studies non-autonomous Lyness type recurrences of the form xn+2 = (an+xn+1)=xn, where fang is a k-periodic sequence of positive numbers with primitive period k. We show that for the cases k 2 f1; 2; 3; 6g the behavior of the sequence fxng is simple (integrable) while for the remaining cases satisfying this behavior can be much more complicated (chaotic). We also show that the cases where k is a multiple of 5 present some di erent features.

Notas del primer seminario de integrabilidad de la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Estas notas corresponden a las exposiciones presentadas en el \emph{Primer Seminario de Integrabilidad}, dentro de lo que se denomina \emph{Aula de Sistemas Din\'amicos}. Durante este evento se realizaron seis conferencias, todas presentadas por miembros del grupo de Sistemas Din\'amicos de la UPC. El programa desarrollado fue el siguiente:\\\begin{center}AULA DE SISTEMAS DIN\'AMICOS\end{center}\begin{center}\texttt{http://www.ma1.upc.es/recerca/seminaris/aulasd-cat.html}\end{center}\begin{center}SEMINARIO DE INTEGRABILIDAD\end{center}\begin{center}Martes 29 y Mi\'ercoles 30 de marzo de 2005\\Facultad de Matem\'aticas y Estad\'{\i}stica, UPC\\Aula: Seminario 1\end{center}\bigskip\begin{center}PROGRAMA Y RES\'UMENES\end{center}{\bf Martes 29 de marzo}\begin{itemize}\item15:30. Juan J. Morales-Ruiz. \emph{El problema de laintegrabilidad en Sistemas Din\'amicos}\medskip {\bf Resumen.} En esta presentaci\'on se pretende dar unaidea de conjunto, pero sin entrar en detalles, sobre las diversasnociones de integrabilidad, asociadas a nombres de matem\'aticostan ilustres como Liouville, Galois-Picard-Vessiot, Lie, Darboux,Kowalevskaya, Painlev\'e, Poincar\'e, Kolchin, Lax, etc. Adem\'astambi\'en mencionaremos la revoluci\'on que supuso en los a\~nossesenta del siglo pasado el descubrimiento de Gardner, Green,Kruskal y Miura sobre un nuevo m\'etodo para resolver en algunoscasos determinadas ecuaciones en derivadas parciales. \medskip\item16:00. David G\'omez-Ullate. \emph{Superintegrabilidad, pares deLax y modelos de $N-$cuerpos en el plano}\medskip{\bf Resumen.} Introduciremos algunas t\'ecnicas cl\'asicas paraconstruir modelos de N-cuerpos integrables, como los pares de Laxo la din\'amica de los ceros de un polinomio. Revisaremos lanoci\'on de integrabilidad Liouville y superintegrabilidad, ydiscutiremos un nuevo m\'etodo debido a F. Calogero para contruirmodelos de N-cuerpos en el plano con muchas \'orbitasperi\'odicas. La exposici\'on se acompa\~nar\'a de animaciones delmovimiento de los cuerpos, y se plantear\'an algunos problemasabiertos.\medskip\item17:00. Pausa\medskip\item17:30. Yuri Fedorov. \emph{An\'alisis de Kovalevskaya--Painlev\'ey Sistemas Algebraicamente Integrables}\medskip{\bf Resumen.} Muchos sistemas integrables poseen una propiedadremarcable: todas sus soluciones son funciones meromorfas deltiempo como una variable compleja. Tal comportamiento, que serefiere como propiedad de Kovalevskaya-Painleve (KP) y que se usafrecuentemente como una ensayo de integrabilidad, no es accidentaly tiene unas ra\'{\i}ces geom\'etricas profundas. En esta charladescribiremos una clase de tales sistemas (conocidos como lossistemas algebraicamente integrables) y subrayaremos suspropiedades geom\'etricas principales que permiten predecir laestructura de las soluciones complejas y adem\'as encontrarlasexpl\'{\i}citamente. Eso lo ilustraremos con algunos sistemas dela mec\'anica cl\'asica. Tambi\'en mencionaremos unasgeneralizaciones \'utiles de la noci\'on de integrabilidadalgebraica y de la propiedad KP.\end{itemize}\medskip{\bf Mi\'ercoles 30 de marzo}\begin{itemize}\item 15:30. Rafael Ram\'{\i}rez-Ros. \emph{El m\'etodo de Poincar\'e}\medskip{\bf Resumen.} Dado un sistema Hamiltoniano aut\'onomo cercano acompletamente integrable Poincar\'e prob\'o que, en general, noexiste ninguna integral primera adicional uniforme en elpar\'ametro de perturbaci\'on salvo el propio Hamiltoniano.Esbozaremos las ideas principales del m\'etodo de prueba ycomentaremos algunas extensiones y generalizaciones.\newpage\item16:30. Chara Pantazi. \emph{El M\'etodo de Darboux}\medskip{\bf Resumen.} Darboux, en 1878, present\'o su m\'etodo paraconstruir integrales primeras de campos vectoriales polinomialesutilizando sus curvas invariantes algebraicas. En estaexposici\'on presentaremos algunas extensiones del m\'etodocl\'asico de Darboux y tambi\'en algunas aplicaciones.\medskip\item17:30. Pausa\medskip\item18:00. Juan J. Morales-Ruiz. \emph{M\'etodos recientes paradetectar la no integrabilidad}\medskip{\bf Resumen.} En 1982 Ziglin utiliza la estructura de laecuaci\'on en variaciones de Poincar\'e (sobre una curva integralparticular) como una herramienta fundamental para detectar la nointegrabilidad de un sistema Hamiltoniano. En esta charla sepretende dar una idea de esta aproximaci\'on a la nointegrabilidad, junto con t\'ecnicas m\'as recientes queinvolucran la teor\'{\i}a de Galois de ecuaciones diferencialeslineales, haciendo \'enfasis en los ejemplos m\'as que en lateor\'{\i}a general. Ilustraremos estos m\'etodos con resultadossobre la no integrabilidad de algunos problemas de $N$ cuerpos enMec\'anica Celeste.\end{itemize}

On the computation of reducible invariant tori on a parallel computer

We present an algorithm for the computation of reducible invariant tori of discrete dynamical systems that is suitable for tori of dimensions larger than 1. It is based on a quadratically convergent scheme that approximates, at the same time, the Fourier series of the torus, its Floquet transformation, and its Floquet matrix. The Floquet matrix describes the linearization of the dynamics around the torus and, hence, its linear stability. The algorithm presents a high degree of parallelism, and the computational effort grows linearly with the number of Fourier modes needed to represent the solution. For these reasons it is a very good option to compute quasi-periodic solutions with several basic frequencies. The paper includes some examples (flows) to show the efficiency of the method in a parallel computer. In these flows we compute invariant tori of dimensions up to 5, by taking suitable sections.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

Incerteza e não ergodicidade: crítica aos neoclássicos

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents "power" on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.

Quelques théorèmes ergodiques pour des suites de fonctions

Le théorème ergodique de Birkhoff nous renseigne sur la convergence de suites de fonctions. Nous nous intéressons alors à étudier la convergence en moyenne et presque partout de ces suites, mais dans le cas où la suite est une suite strictement croissante de nombres entiers positifs. C’est alors que nous définirons les suites uniformes et étudierons la convergence presque partout pour ces suites. Nous regarderons également s’il existe certaines suites pour lesquelles la convergence n’a pas lieu. Nous présenterons alors un résultat dû en partie à Alexandra Bellow qui dit que de telles suites existent. Finalement, nous démontrerons une équivalence entre la notion de transformatiuon fortement mélangeante et la convergence d'une certaine suite qui utilise des “poids” qui satisfont certaines propriétés.

Parameter Estimation in Minification Processes

In this article it is proved that the stationary Markov sequences generated by minification models are ergodic and uniformly mixing. These results are used to establish the optimal properties of estimators for the parameters in the model. The problem of estimating the parameters in the exponential minification model is discussed in detail.