Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Selectively filled photonic liquid crystal fibers = Fibras de cristal fotónico selectivamente llenas con cristal líquido

El presente trabajo de Tesis se ha centrado en el diseño, fabricación y caracterización de dispositivos basados en fibras de cristal fotónico infiltrado selectivamente con cristales líquidos, polímeros y una mezcla de ambos. Todos los dispositivos son sintonizables, y su área de aplicación se centra en comunicaciones ópticas y sensores. La manipulación y fusionado de fibras fotónicas, el llenado selectivo de determinadas cavidades y la alineación recíproca de fibras mantenedoras de polarización son tareas muy específicas y delicadas para las que se requieren protocolos muy estrictos. Previo a la fabricación de dispositivos ha sido necesaria por tanto una tarea de sistematización y creación de protocolos de fabricación. Una vez establecidos se ha procedido a la fabricación y caracterización de dispositivos. Los dispositivos fabricados se enumeran a continuación para posteriormente detallar una a una las singularidades de cada uno. • Interferómetros intermodales hechos a partir de una porción de fibra fotónica soldada entre dos fibras estándar, bien monomodo o PANDA (mantenedora de polarización). Estos interferómetros han sido sumergidos o bien llenados selectivamente con cristales líquidos para así sintonizar la señal interferométrica guiada a través de la fibra. • Infiltración de fibras fotónicas con cristales líquidos colestéricos con especial énfasis en la fase azul (blue phase) de estos materiales. Las moléculas de cristal líquido se autoalinean en volumen por lo que la infiltración de fibras fotónicas con estos cristales líquidos es muy interesante, pues es conocida la dificultad de alinear apropiadamente cristales líquidos dentro de cavidades micrométricas de las fibras fotónicas. • Grabación de redes holográficas de forma selectiva en las cavidades de una fibra fotónica. Estas redes holográficas, llamadas POLICRYPS (POlymer-LIquid CRYstal-Polymer Slices), son redes fabricadas a base de franjas de polímero y cristal líquido alineado perpendicularmente a dichas franjas. Las franjas son a su vez perpendiculares al eje de la fibra como lo puede ser una red de Bragg convencional. El cristal líquido, al estar alineado perpendicularmente a dichos franjas y paralelo al eje de la fibra, se puede conmutar aplicando un campo eléctrico externo, modificando así el índice efectivo de la red. Se puede fabricar por lo tanto una red de Bragg sintonizable en fibra, muy útil en comunicaciones ópticas. • Llenado selectivo de fibras fotónicas con polidimetilsiloxano (PDMS), un polímero de tipo silicona. Si se realiza un llenado selectivo asimétrico se puede inducir birrefringencia en la fibra. El índice de refracción del PDMS tiene una fuerte dependencia térmica, por lo que se puede sintonizar la birrefringencia de la fibra. • Estudio teórico de llenado selectivo de fibras fotónicas con PDMS dopado con nanopartículas de plata de 5, 40 y 80 nm. Estas nanopartículas poseen un pico de absorción en torno a los 450 nm debido a resonancias superficiales localizadas de plasmones (LSPR). La resonancia del plasmon tiene una fuerte dependencia con el índice de refracción del material colindante, y al ser éste PDMS, la variación de índice de refracción se ve amplificada, obteniendo una absorción sintonizable. Se ha propuesto la fabricación de polarizadores sintonizables usando esta técnica. Como ya se ha dicho, previamente a la fabricación ha sido necesaria la protocolización de diversos procedimientos de fabricación de alta complejidad, así como protocolizar el proceso de toma de medidas para optimizar los resultados. Los procedimientos que han requerido la formulación de protocolos específicos han sido los siguientes: • Llenado selectivo de cavidades en una fibra fotónica. Dichas fibras tienen generalmente un diámetro externo de 125 μm, y sus cavidades son de entre 5 y 10 μm de diámetro. Se han desarrollado tres técnicas diferentes para el llenado/bloqueado selectivo, pudiéndose combinar varios protocolos para la optimización del proceso. Las técnicas son las siguientes: o Llenado y bloqueado con un prepolímero. Dicho prepolímero, también llamado adhesivo óptico, está inicialmente en estado líquido y posee una cierta viscosidad. Las cavidades de la fibra fotónica que se desea llenar o bloquear poseen un diámetro diferente al resto, por lo que en el proceso de llenado aparecen dos frentes de llenado dependientes de su diámetro. A mayor diámetro, mayor velocidad de llenado. Polimerizando cuando existe dicha diferencia en los frentes se puede cortar por medio, obteniendo así una fibra parcialmente bloqueada. o Colapsamiento de las cavidades de menor diámetro mediante aplicación de calor. El calor producido por un arco voltaico de una soldadora de fibra estándar fusiona el material exterior de la fibra produciendo el colapsamiento de las cavidades de menor diámetro. En esta técnica también es necesaria una diferencia de diámetros en las cavidades de la fibra. o Bloqueo una a una de las cavidades de la fibra fotónica con adhesivo óptico. Este procedimiento es muy laborioso y requiere mucha precisión. Con este sistema se pueden bloquear las cavidades deseadas de una fibra sin importar su diámetro. • Alineación de una fuente de luz linealmente polarizada con una fibra mantenedora de polarización ya sea PANDA o fotónica. Así mismo también se han alineado entre sí fibras mantenedoras de polarización, para que sus ejes rápidos se fusionen paralelos y así el estado de polarización de la luz guiada se mantenga. • Sistematización de toma de medidas para caracterizar los interferómetros modales. Éstos son altamente sensibles a diversas variables por lo que el proceso de medida es complejo. Se deben aislar variables de forma estrictamente controlada. Aunque todos los dispositivos tienen en común el llenado selectivo de cavidades en una fibra fotónica cada dispositivo tiene sus peculiaridades, que van a ser explicadas a continuación. ABSTRACT The present Thesis has been centered in the design, fabrication and characterization of devices based on photonic crystal fibers selectively filled with liquid crystals, polymers and a mixture of both. All devices are tunable and their work field is optical communications and sensing The handling and splicing of photonic crystal fibers, the selective filling of their holes and the aligning of polarization maintaining fibers are very specific and delicate tasks for which very strict protocols are required. Before the fabrication of devices has therefore been necessary task systematization and creation of manufacturing protocols. Once established we have proceeded to the fabrication and characterization of devices. The fabricated devices are listed below and their peculiarities are detailed one by one: • Intermodal interferometers made with a portion of photonic crystal fiber spliced between two optical communication fiber pigtails, either single mode or PANDA (polarization-maintaining) fiber. These interferometers have been submerged or selectively filled with liquid crystals to tune the interferometric guided signal. • Infiltration of photonic fibers with cholesteric liquid crystals with special emphasis on their blue phase (blue phase). The liquid crystal molecules are self-aligning in volume so the infiltration of photonic fibers with these liquid crystals is very interesting. It is notoriously difficult to properly align liquid crystals within micron cavities such as photonic fibers. • Selectively recording of holographic gratings in the holes of photonic crystal fibers. These holographic gratings, called POLICRYPS (POlymer-LIquid CRYstal-Polymes Slices), are based on walls made of polymer and liquid crystal aligned perpendicular to them. These walls are perpendicular to the axis of the fiber as it can be a conventional Bragg grating. The liquid crystal is aligned perpendicular to the walls and parallel to the fiber axis, and can be switched by applying an external electric field and thus change the effective index of the grating. It is thus possible to manufacture a tunable Bragg grating fiber, useful in optical communications. •Asymmetrically selective filling of photonic crystal fibers with a silicone polymer like called polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) to induce birefringence in the fiber. The refractive index of PDMS has temperature dependence, so that the birefringence of the fiber can be tuned. • Theoretical study of photonic crystal fibers selectively filled with PDMS doped with silver nanoparticles of 5, 40 and 80 nm. These nanoparticles have an absorption peak around 450 nm due to localized surface plasmon resonances (LSPR). Plasmon resonance has a strong dependence on the refractive index of the adjacent material, and as this is PDMS, the refractive index variation is amplified, obtaining a tunable absorption. Fabrication of tunable polarizers using this technique has been proposed. Before starting the fabrication, it has been necessary to optimize several very delicate procedures and different protocols have been designed. The most delicate procedures are as follows: • Selective filling of holes in a photonic crystal fiber. These fibers generally have an outer diameter of 125 μm, and their holes have a diameter around between 5 and 10 μm. It has been developed three different techniques for filling / selective blocking, and they can be combined for process optimization. The techniques are: o Filling and blocked with a prepolymer. This prepolymer also called optical adhesive is initially in liquid state and has a certain viscosity. The holes of the photonic crystal fiber that are desired to be filled or blocked should have a different diameter, so that in the filling process appear two different fronts depending on the hole diameter. The holes with larger diameter are filled faster. Then the adhesive is polymerized when there is such a difference on the front. A partially blocked fiber is obtained cutting between fronts. o Collapsing of holes of smaller diameter by application of heat. The heat produced by an arc of a standard fusion splicer fuses the outer fiber material producing the collapsing of the cavities of smaller diameter. In this technique also you need a difference of diameters in the fiber holes. o Blocking one by one the holes of photonic crystal fiber with optical adhesive. This procedure is very laborious and requires great precision. This system can block unwanted cavities regardless fiber diameter. • Aligning a linearly polarized light source with a polarization-maintaining fiber (either a PANDA fiber as a photonic crystal fiber). It is needed also an aligning between polarization-maintaining fibers, so that their fast axes parallel merge and that is state of polarization of light guided is maintained. • Systematization of taking measurements to characterize the modal interferometers. These are highly sensitive to several variables so the measurement process is very complicated. Variables must be fixed in a very controlled manner. Although all devices have the common characteristic of being selectively filled PCFs with some kind of material, each one has his own peculiarities, which are explained below.

Structure, dynamics, and energetics of siRNA-cationic vector complexation:a molecular dynamics study

The design and synthesis of safe and efficient nonviral vectors for gene delivery has attracted significant attention in recent years. Previous experiments have revealed that the charge density of a polycation (the carrier) plays a crucial role in complexation and the release of the gene from the complex in the cytosol. In this work, we adopt an atomistic molecular dynamics simulation approach to study the complexation of short strand duplex RNA with six cationic carrier systems of varying charge and surface topology. The simulations reveal detailed molecular-level pictures of the structures and dynamics of the RNA-polycation complexes. Estimates for the binding free energy indicate that electrostatic contributions are dominant followed by van der Waals interactions. The binding free energy between the 8(+)polymers and the RNA is found to be larger than that of the 4(+)polymers, in general agreement with previously published data. Because reliable binding free energies provide an effective index of the ability of the polycationic carrier to bind the nucleic acid and also carry implications for the process of gene release within the cytosol, these novel simulations have the potential to provide us with a much better understanding of key mechanistic aspects of gene-polycation complexation and thereby advance the rational design of nonviral gene delivery systems.

Optical fibre sensors with applications in gas and biological sensing

This thesis describes the study of various grating based optical fibre sensors for applications in refractive index sensing. The sensitivity of these sensors has been studied and in some cases enhanced using novel techniques. The major areas of development are as follows. The sensitivity of long period gratings (LPGs) to surrounding medium refractive index (SRI) for various periods was investigated. The most sensitive period of LPG was found to be around 160 µm and this was due to the core mode coupling to a single cladding mode but phase matching at two wavelength locations, creating two attenuation peaks, close to the waveguide dispersion turning point. Large angle tilted fibre gratings (TFGs) have similar behaviour to LPGs, in that they couple to the co-propagating cladding modes. The tilted structure of the index modulation within the core of the fibre gives rise to a polarisation dependency, differing the large angle TFG from a LPG. Since the large angle TFG couple to the cladding mode they are SRI sensitive, the sensitivity to SRI can be further increased through cladding etching using HF acid. The thinning of the cladding layer caused a reordering of the cladding modes and shifted to more SRI sensitive cladding modes as the investigation discovered. In a SRI range of 1.36 to 1.40 a sensitivity of 506.9 nm/URI was achieved for the etched large angle TFG, which is greater than the dual resonance LPG. UV inscribed LPGs were coated with sol-gel materials with high RIs. The high RI of the coating caused an increase in cladding mode effective index which in turn caused an increase in the LPG sensitivity to SRI. LPGs of various periods of LPG were coated with sol-gel TiO2 and the optimal thickness was found to vary for each period. By coating of the already highly SRI sensitive 160µm period LPG (which is a dual resonance) with a sol-gel TiO2, the SRI sensitivity was further increased with a peak value of 1458 nm/URI, which was an almost 3 fold increase compared to the uncoated LPG. LPGs were also inscribed using a femtosecond laser which produced a highly focused index change which was no uniform throughout the core of the optical fibre. The inscription technique gave rise to a large polarisation sensitivity and the ability to couple to multiple azimuthal cladding mode sets, not seen with uniform UV inscribed gratings. Through coupling of the core mode to multiple sets of cladding modes, attenuation peaks with opposite wavelength shifts for increasing SRI was observed. Through combining this opposite wavelength shifts, a SRI sensitivity was achieved greater than any single observed attenuations peak. The maximum SRI achieved was 1680 nm/URI for a femtosecond inscribed LPG of period 400 µm. Three different types of surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensors with a multilayer metal top coating were investigated in D shape optical fibre. The sensors could be separated into two types, utilized a pre UV inscribed tilted Bragg grating and the other employed a post UV exposure to generate surface relief grating structure. This surface perturbation aided the out coupling of light from the core but also changed the sensing mechanism from SPR to localised surface plasmon resonance (LSPR). This greatly increased the SRI sensitivity, compared to the SPR sensors; with the gold coated top layer surface relief sensor producing the largest SRI sensitivity of 2111.5nm/URI was achieved. While, the platinum and silver coated top layer surface relief sensors also gave high SRI sensitivities but also the ability to produce resonances in air (not previously seen with the SPR sensors). These properties were employed in two applications. The silver and platinum surface relief devices were used as gas sensors and were shown to be capable of detecting the minute RI change of different gases. The calculated maximum sensitivities produced were 1882.1dB/URI and 1493.5nm/URI for silver and platinum, respectively. Using a DFB laser and power meter a cheap alternative approach was investigated which showed the ability of the sensors to distinguish between different gases and flow rates of those gases. The gold surface relief sensor was coated in a with a bio compound called an aptamer and it was able to detect various concentrations of a biological compound called Thrombin, ranging from 1mM to as low as 10fM. A solution of 2M NaCl was found to give the best stripping results for Thrombin from the aptamer and showed the reusability of the sensor. The association and disassociation constants were calculated to be 1.0638×106Ms-1 and 0.2482s-1, respectively, showing the high affinity of the Aptamer to thrombin. This supports existing working stating that aptamers could be alternative to enzymes for chemical detection and also helps to explain the low detection limit of the gold surface relief sensor.

A micro-opto-electro-mechanical system (MOEMS) for microstructure manipulation

Microstructure manipulation is a fundamental process to the study of biology and medicine, as well as to advance micro- and nano-system applications. Manipulation of microstructures has been achieved through various microgripper devices developed recently, which lead to advances in micromachine assembly, and single cell manipulation, among others. Only two kinds of integrated feedback have been demonstrated so far, force sensing and optical binary feedback. As a result, the physical, mechanical, optical, and chemical information about the microstructure under study must be extracted from macroscopic instrumentation, such as confocal fluorescence microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. In this research work, novel Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical-System (MOEMS) microgrippers are presented. These devices utilize flexible optical waveguides as gripping arms, which provide the physical means for grasping a microobject, while simultaneously enabling light to be delivered and collected. This unique capability allows extensive optical characterization of the structure being held such as transmission, reflection, or fluorescence. The microgrippers require external actuation which was accomplished by two methods: initially with a micrometer screw, and later with a piezoelectric actuator. Thanks to a novel actuation mechanism, the "fishbone", the gripping facets remain parallel within 1 degree. The design, simulation, fabrication, and characterization are systematically presented. The devices mechanical operation was verified by means of 3D finite element analysis simulations. Also, the optical performance and losses were simulated by the 3D-to-2D effective index (finite difference time domain FDTD) method as well as 3D Beam Propagation Method (3D-BPM). The microgrippers were designed to manipulate structures from submicron dimensions up to approximately 100 μm. The devices were implemented in SU-8 due to its suitable optical and mechanical properties. This work demonstrates two practical applications: the manipulation of single SKOV-3 human ovarian carcinoma cells, and the detection and identification of microparts tagged with a fluorescent "barcode" implemented with quantum dots. The novel devices presented open up new possibilities in the field of micromanipulation at the microscale, scalable to the nano-domain.

A Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical System (MOEMS) for Microstructure Manipulation

Microstructure manipulation is a fundamental process to the study of biology and medicine, as well as to advance micro- and nano-system applications. Manipulation of microstructures has been achieved through various microgripper devices developed recently, which lead to advances in micromachine assembly, and single cell manipulation, among others. Only two kinds of integrated feedback have been demonstrated so far, force sensing and optical binary feedback. As a result, the physical, mechanical, optical, and chemical information about the microstructure under study must be extracted from macroscopic instrumentation, such as confocal fluorescence microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. In this research work, novel Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical-System (MOEMS) microgrippers are presented. These devices utilize flexible optical waveguides as gripping arms, which provide the physical means for grasping a microobject, while simultaneously enabling light to be delivered and collected. This unique capability allows extensive optical characterization of the structure being held such as transmission, reflection, or fluorescence. The microgrippers require external actuation which was accomplished by two methods: initially with a micrometer screw, and later with a piezoelectric actuator. Thanks to a novel actuation mechanism, the “fishbone”, the gripping facets remain parallel within 1 degree. The design, simulation, fabrication, and characterization are systematically presented. The devices mechanical operation was verified by means of 3D finite element analysis simulations. Also, the optical performance and losses were simulated by the 3D-to-2D effective index (finite difference time domain FDTD) method as well as 3D Beam Propagation Method (3D-BPM). The microgrippers were designed to manipulate structures from submicron dimensions up to approximately 100 µm. The devices were implemented in SU-8 due to its suitable optical and mechanical properties. This work demonstrates two practical applications: the manipulation of single SKOV-3 human ovarian carcinoma cells, and the detection and identification of microparts tagged with a fluorescent “barcode” implemented with quantum dots. The novel devices presented open up new possibilities in the field of micromanipulation at the microscale, scalable to the nano-domain.

Cell phone–based health education messaging improves health literacy.

Background: The ubiquity of cell phones, which allow for short message service (SMS), provides new and innovative opportunities for disease prevention and health education. Objective: To explore the use of cell phone–based health education SMS to improve the health literacy of community residents in China. Methods: A multi-stage random sampling method was used to select representative study communities and participants ≥ 18 years old. Intervention participants were sent health education SMSs once a week for 1 year and controls were sent conventional, basic health education measures. Health literacy levels of the residents before and after the intervention were evaluated between intervention and control groups. Results: Public health literacy scores increased 1.5 points, from 61.8 to 63.3, after SMS intervention for 1 year (P<0.01); the increase was greater for males than females (2.01 vs. 1.03; P<0.01) and for Shenzhen local residents than non-permanent residents (2.56 vs. 1.14; P<0.01). The frequency of high health literacy scores was greater for the intervention than control group (22.03% to 30.93% vs. 22.07% to 20.82%). With health literacy as a cost-effective index, the cost-effectiveness per intervention was 0.54. Conclusion: SMS may be a useful tool for improving health literacy.

Interstate identification index : is it an effective weapon in the war against violent crime? Is it interstate, does it identify, and is it an index? : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Third Congress, second session, December 6, 1994.

Shipping list no.: 95-0315-P.

Barriers to effective knowledge transfer in project-based organisations

Effective knowledge transfer can prevent the reinvention of systems and ideas as well as the repetition of errors. Doing so will save substantial time, as well as contribute to better performance of projects and project-based organisations (PBOs). Despite the importance of knowledge, PBOs face serious barriers to the effective transfer of knowledge, while their characteristics, such as unique and innovative approaches taken during every project, mean they have much to gain from knowledge transfer. As each new project starts, there is the strong potential to reinvent the process, rather than utilise learning from previous projects. In fact, rework is one of the primary factors contributing to construction industry's poor performance and productivity. Current literature has identified several barriers to knowledge transfer in organisational settings in general, and not specifically PBOs. However, PBOs significantly differ from other types of organisations. PBOs operate mainly on temporary projects, where time is a crucial factor and people are more mobile than in other organisational settings. The aim of this research is to identify the key barriers that prevent effective knowledge transfer for PBOs, exclusively. Interviews with project managers and senior managers of PBOs complement the analysis of the literature and provide professional expertise. This research is crucial to gaining a better understanding of obstacles that hinder knowledge transfer in projects. The main contribution of this research is exclusive for PBO, list of key barriers that organisation and project managers need to consider to ensure effective knowledge transfer and better project management.

Key organizational elements for effective information and knowledge management

Effective information and knowledge management (IKM) is critical to corporate success; yet, its actual establishment and management is not yet fully understood. We identify ten organizational elements that need to be addressed to ensure the effective implementation and maintenance of information and knowledge management within organizations. We define these elements and provide key characterizations. We then discuss a case study that describes the implementation of an information system (designed to support IKM) in a medical supplies organization. We apply the framework of organizational elements in our analysis to uncover the enablers and barriers in this systems implementation project. Our analysis suggests that taking the ten organizational elements into consideration when implementing information systems will assist practitioners in managing information and knowledge processes more effectively and efficiently. We discuss implications for future research.

Glycaemic index and glycaemic load intake patterns in older Australian women

Aims: Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) have been associated with risk of chronic diseases, yet limited research exists on patterns of consumption in Australia. Our aims were to investigate glycemic carbohydrate in a population of older women, identify major contributing food sources, and determine low, moderate and high ranges. Methods: Subjects were 459 Brisbane women aged 42-81 years participating in the Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women. Diet history interviews were used to assess usual diet and results were analysed into energy and macronutrients using the FoodWorks dietary analysis program combined with a customised GI database. Results: Mean±SD dietary GI was 55.6±4.4% and mean dietary GL was 115±25. A low GI in this population was ≤52.0, corresponding to the lowest quintile of dietary GI, and a low GL was ≤95. GI showed a quadratic relationship with age (P=0.01), with a slight decrease observed in women aged in their 60’s relative to younger or older women. GL decreased linearly with age (P<0.001). Bread was the main contributor to carbohydrate and dietary GL (17.1% and 20.8%, respectively), followed by fruit (15.5% and 14.2%), and dairy for carbohydrate (9.0%) or breakfast cereals for GL (8.9%). Conclusions: In this population, dietary GL decreased with increasing age, however this was likely to be a result of higher energy intakes in younger women. Focus on careful selection of lower GI items within bread and breakfast cereal food groups would be an effective strategy for decreasing dietary GL in this population of older women.

Cyber bullying in schools and the law : is there an effective means of addressing the power imbalance?

Cyber bullying – or bullying through the use of technology – is a growing phenomenon which is currently most commonly experienced by young people and the consequences manifested in schools. Cyber bullying shares many of the same attributes as face-to-face bullying such as a power imbalance and a sense of helplessness on the part of the target. Not surprisingly, targets of face-to-face bullying are increasingly turning to the law, and it is likely that targets of cyber bullying may also do so in an appropriate case. This article examines the various criminal, civil and vilification laws that may apply to cases of cyber bullying and assesses the likely effectiveness of these laws as a means of redressing that power imbalance between perpetrator and target.