Models involving two inverse Weibull distributions

In this paper, we look at three models (mixture, competing risk and multiplicative) involving two inverse Weibull distributions. We study the shapes of the density and failure-rate functions and discuss graphical methods to determine if a given data set can be modelled by one of these models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification Performance of Multilayer Perceptrons with Different Risk Functionals

In the present paper we assess the performance of information-theoretic inspired risks functionals in multilayer perceptrons with reference to the two most popular ones, Mean Square Error and Cross-Entropy. The information-theoretic inspired risks, recently proposed, are: HS and HR2 are, respectively, the Shannon and quadratic Rényi entropies of the error; ZED is a risk reflecting the error density at zero errors; EXP is a generalized exponential risk, able to mimic a wide variety of risk functionals, including the information-thoeretic ones. The experiments were carried out with multilayer perceptrons on 35 public real-world datasets. All experiments were performed according to the same protocol. The statistical tests applied to the experimental results showed that the ubiquitous mean square error was the less interesting risk functional to be used by multilayer perceptrons. Namely, mean square error never achieved a significantly better classification performance than competing risks. Cross-entropy and EXP were the risks found by several tests to be significantly better than their competitors. Counts of significantly better and worse risks have also shown the usefulness of HS and HR2 for some datasets.

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

The Impact of income support programs on transitions to employment

The income support programs are created with the purpose of fighting both, the poverty trap and the inactivity trap. The balance between both is fragile and hard to find. Thus, the goal of this work is to contribute to solve this issue by finding how income support programs, particularly the Portuguese RSI, affect transitions to employment. This is made through duration analysis, namely using Cox and Competing Risks models. A particular feature is introduced in this work as it incorporates the possibility of Defective Risks. The estimated hazard elasticity with respect to the amount of RSI received for individuals who move to employment is -0,41. More than a half of RSI receivers stays for more than a year and the probability of never leaving to employment is 44%. The results appear to indicate that RSI has affected negatively transitions to employment.

Lifetime alcohol use and overall and cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the role of factors that modulate the association between alcohol and mortality, and to provide estimates of absolute risk of death. DESIGN The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC). SETTING 23 centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS 380 395 men and women, free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack or stroke at enrolment, followed up for 12.6 years on average. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 20 453 fatal events, of which 2053 alcohol-related cancers (ARC, including cancers of upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectal and female breast), 4187 cardiovascular diseases/coronary heart disease (CVD/CHD), 856 violent deaths and injuries. Lifetime alcohol use was assessed at recruitment. RESULTS HRs comparing extreme drinkers (≥30 g/day in women and ≥60 g/day in men) to moderate drinkers (0.1-4.9 g/day) were 1.27 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.43) in women and 1.53 (1.39 to 1.68) in men. Strong associations were observed for ARC mortality, in men particularly, and for violent deaths and injuries, in men only. No associations were observed for CVD/CHD mortality among drinkers, whereby HRs were higher in never compared to moderate drinkers. Overall mortality seemed to be more strongly related to beer than wine use, particularly in men. The 10-year risks of overall death for women aged 60 years, drinking more than 30 g/day was 5% and 7%, for never and current smokers, respectively. Corresponding figures in men consuming more than 60 g/day were 11% and 18%, in never and current smokers, respectively. In competing risks analyses, mortality due to CVD/CHD was more pronounced than ARC in men, while CVD/CHD and ARC mortality were of similar magnitude in women. CONCLUSIONS In this large European cohort, alcohol use was positively associated with overall mortality, ARC and violent death and injuries, but marginally to CVD/CHD. Absolute risks of death observed in EPIC suggest that alcohol is an important determinant of total mortality.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, retention in the cohort, and antiretroviral therapy, in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: We studied the influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, dropout rate, and the course of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: Cohort participants, registered prior to April 2007 and with at least one drug use questionnaire completed until May 2013, were categorized according to their self-reported drug use behaviour. The probabilities of death and dropout were separately analysed using multivariable competing risks proportional hazards regression models with mutual correction for the other endpoint. Furthermore, we describe the influence of drug use on the course of ART. RESULTS: A total of 6529 participants (including 31% women) were followed during 31 215 person-years; 5.1% participants died; 10.5% were lost to follow-up. Among persons with homosexual or heterosexual HIV transmission, noninjecting drug use was associated with higher all-cause mortality [subhazard rate (SHR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.83], compared with no drug use. Also, mortality was increased among former injecting drug users (IDUs) who reported noninjecting drug use (SHR 2.34; 95% CI 1.49-3.69). Noninjecting drug use was associated with higher dropout rates. The mean proportion of time with suppressed viral replication was 82.2% in all participants, irrespective of ART status, and 91.2% in those on ART. Drug use lowered adherence, and increased rates of ART change and ART interruptions. Virological failure on ART was more frequent in participants who reported concomitant drug injections while on opiate substitution, and in current IDUs, but not among noninjecting drug users. CONCLUSIONS: Noninjecting drug use and injecting drug use are modifiable risks for death, and they lower retention in a cohort and complicate ART.

Adjuvant cisplatin-based combined chemotherapy for lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after radical cystectomy (RC): a retrospective international study of >1500 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare outcomes of patients with lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) treated with or without cisplatin-based combined adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after radical cystectomy (RC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 1523 patients with LN-positive UCB, who underwent RC with bilateral pelvic LN dissection. All patients had no evidence of disease after RC. AC was administered within 3 months. Competing-risks models were applied to compare UCB-related mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1523 patients, 874 (57.4%) received AC. The cumulative 1-, 2- and 5-year UCB-related mortality rates for all patients were 16%, 36% and 56%, respectively. Administration of AC was associated with an 18% relative reduction in the risk of UCB-related death (subhazard ratio 0.82, P = 0.005). The absolute reduction in mortality was 3.5% at 5 years. The positive effect of AC was detectable in patients aged ≤70 years, in women, in pT3-4 disease, and in those with a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion. This study is limited by its retrospective and non-randomised design, selection bias, the absence of central pathological review and lack in standardisation of LN dissection and cisplatin-based protocols. CONCLUSION: AC seems to reduce UCB-related mortality in patients with LN-positive UCB after RC. Younger patients, women and those with high-risk features such as pT3-4 disease, a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion appear to benefit most. Appropriately powered prospective randomised trials are necessary to confirm these findings.

The relationships of organizational cultures, trust and innovativeness

Sekä organisaatiokulttuuria, luottamusta että innovatiivisuutta on tutkittu paljon, mutta toistaiseksi nämä käsitteet yhdistävää kokonaisvaltaista tutkimusta ei juuri ole tehty tai ainakaan raportoitu tieteellisissä julkaisuissa. Tätä tutkimus käsitteli organisaatiokulttuurin, luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden suhteita erilaisissa organisaatiokulttuureissa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia organisaatiokulttuurin vaikutusta luottamukseen (sekä kompetenssiin, hyväntahtoisuuteen että rehellisyyteen perustuvaan lateraaliin, vertikaaliin ja institutionaaliseen luottamukseen), innovaatioilmastoon ja innovaatiotoiminnan tuloksellisuuteen. Organisaatiokulttuurin, luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden yhteyttä tarkasteltiin neljässä erityyppisessä organisaatiokulttuurissa (klaani-, adhokratia-, hierarkia- ja markkinakulttuurit), jotka pohjautuvat kilpailevien arvojen malliin. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osa toteutettiin posti ja Internet -pohjaisena kyselytutkimuksena 40 organisaatioyksikössä tilastollisen analyysin menetelmin. Yleisellä tasolla työssä saatiin selville, että luottamuksen ja innovatiivisuuden tasot vaihtelevat erityyppisissä organisaatio-kulttuureissa. Tarkemmin sanottuna klaani- ja adhokratiakulttuureissa luottamus ja innovatiivisuus olivat korkeita, ja näillä kulttuureilla oli myös positiivinen vaikutus innovaatiotoiminnan tuloksellisuuteen. Erityisesti institutionaalisen luottamuksen ja innovaatiotuen merkitykset olivat tärkeitä, sillä ne toimivat mediaattoreina organisaatiokulttuurin ja innovatiivisuuden välisessä suhteessa. Luottamuksella ja innovatiivisuudelle ei sitä vastoin ollut vaikutusta hierarkia- ja markkinakulttuureissa, tai vaikutus oli negatiivinen. Tässä työssä osoitettiin myös aiemmin hyvin vähän tutkitun institutionaalisen organisatorisen luottamuksen merkitys organisaatioiden innovatiivisuudessa.

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy for lymph node-positive upper tract urothelial carcinoma following radical nephroureterectomy: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) on mortality after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) with positive lymph nodes (LNs) and to identify patient subgroups that are most likely to benefit from AC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 263 patients with LN-positive UTUC, who underwent full surgical resection. In all, 107 patients (41%) received three to six cycles of AC, while 156 (59.3%) were treated with RNU alone. UTUC-related mortality was evaluated using competing-risks regression models. RESULTS: In all patients (Tall N+), administration of AC had no significant impact on UTUC-related mortality on univariable (P = 0.49) and multivariable (P = 0.11) analysis. Further stratified analyses showed that only N+ patients with pT3-4 disease benefited from AC. In this subgroup, AC reduced UTUC-related mortality by 34% (P = 0.019). The absolute difference in mortality was 10% after the first year and increased to 23% after 5 years. On multivariable analysis, administration of AC was associated with significantly reduced UTUC-related mortality (subhazard ratio 0.67, P = 0.022). Limitations of this study are the retrospective non-randomised design, selection bias, absence of a central pathological review and different AC protocols. CONCLUSIONS: AC seems to reduce mortality in patients with pT3-4 LN-positive UTUC after RNU. This subgroup of LN-positive patients could serve as target population for an AC prospective randomised trial.

La néphrectomie partielle chez les patients atteints du cancer du rein de stade T1b

Objectif : La néphrectomie partielle est reconnue actuellement comme le traitement de choix des tumeurs de moins de 7 cm. Le but de notre étude est de comparer le taux de mortalité lié au cancer du rein suite au traitement par néphrectomie partielle ou radicale chez les patients de stade T1b, de présenter la tendance temporelle du taux d'intervention par néphrectomie partielle pour les tumeurs de stade T1b et d’identifier les facteurs sociodémographiques et tumoraux qui influencent le choix thérapeutique entre les deux types de traitement chirurgical. Méthode : Il s’agit d’une étude épidémiologique de type rétrospective. La population de patients provient de la base de donnée SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) qui regroupe une grande proportion de la population nord-américaine. Dans notre étude, nous avons utilisé l’analyse par régression logistique pour identifier les facteurs sociodémographiques associés à l'intervention par néphrectomie partielle. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons comparé la mortalité liée au cancer entre les deux options chirurgicales, après association par score de tendance pour diminuer les différences de base entre les deux populations. Nos critères étaient l’âge, la race, le sexe, l’état civil, le niveau socioéconomique, la taille tumorale, le grade nucléaire, l’histologie et la localité du centre hospitalier. L’analyse des données a été faite par le logiciel SPSS. Résultats : Le taux d'interventions par néphrectomie partielle a augmenté de 1,2% en 1988 à 15,9% en 2008 (p <0,001). Les jeunes patients, les tumeurs de petite taille, les patients de race noire, ainsi que les hommes sont plus susceptibles d'être traités par néphrectomie partielle (tous les p < 0,002). Parmi le groupe ciblé, le taux de mortalité lié au cancer à 5 ans et à 10 ans est de 4,4 et de 6,1% pour les néphrectomies partielles et de 6,0 et 10,4% pour les néphrectomies radicales (p = 0,03). Après ajustement de toutes les autres variables, les analyses de régression montrent que le choix entre les deux types de néphrectomie n’est pas associé à la mortalité lié au cancer (hazard ratio: 0,89, p = 0,5). Conclusion : Malgré un contrôle oncologique équivalent, le taux d'intervention par néphrectomie partielle chez les patients ayant un cancer du rein T1b est faible en comparaison à la néphrectomie radicale.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Cultura e clima organizacionais: um estudo multicasos em indústrias de laticínios do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

The objective of this study is to investigate if exist relationship between organizational culture and the organizational climate, having as research s locus three dairy industries in the Rio Grande do Norte State. As such, an exploratory-descriptive and conclusive-causal study, with a sample composed of 211 employees of all firms hierarchical levels was undertaken. By way the data collection, the employees personal characteristics, the predominant organizational culture profile and the predominant organizational climate in the industries researched were identified. In order to analyse the organizational culture, the Competing Value Model (CAMERON; QUINN, 2006), with adaptations by Santos (1998, 2000), was used. In order to analyse the organizational climate, the Organizational Climate Measurement Scale, proposed by Martins (et al., 2004, 2008), with modifications, was used. The data were submitted to quantitative statistical analyses, firstly to the set of firms and afterwards to the firms alone, that permitted arrival to the following conclusions: the cultural profiles was met in a balanced way in the researched organizations, with emphasis to clan culture and market culture profiles; the researched organizations have a good organizational climate, based in the Martins (2008) classification, with emphasis to boss and organization s support and physical comfort , being these factors coherent whit the clan culture profile; the personal variables are correlated with the cultural profiles and with the organizational climate factors, however, each organization show its singular form of relation; and the cultural profiles showed influence on organizational climate factors. Thus, the results permitted to conclude that there are relations between the cultural profiles and the organizational climate factors in the researched organizations

Cultura organizacional e desempenho dos colaboradores :um estudo exploratório no setor hoteleiro

This work focuses on the relationship between organizational culture and quality culture in the hotel sector of NATAL/RN with respect to employee performance. The themes organizational culture and quality have been the research focus of administration theorists and a constant concern of professional managers, since the Japanese demonstrated effective forms or western management. In this study, the Competing Values Model (C.V.M.) (Quinn e Cameron, 1996; Quinn, 1998; Santos, 1998, 2000; Teixeira, 2001), which was tested on north-American organizations and considered a high value academic and professional instrument, was applied. The model maps the organizational culture on a profile with four elements: clan, adhocracy, market and hierarchy. The C.V.M., associated with the taximetrics created by Cameron (which classifies quality culture in for levels: status quo, error detection, error prevention and perpetual creative quality) has been related with organizational performance. In this study, these two models are used jointly and tested in the hotel sector. The results indicate that the strongest element of the profile is clan, which is characterized by internal focus, participation and people involvement, followed by the adhocracy element, which has an external focus, emphasizes flexibility and is characterized by dynamic enterprising and creativity. Regarding the level of the culture s quality in the hotel, the highest level, that of perpetual improvement and creativity, which attempts to enchant and to surprise the clients, was most frequently cited, followed by the error detection level, which has as its goal to discover and correct mistakes, trying, consequently, to reduce waste. The results suggest that employee performance as measured on some indicators is related to elements of the organizational culture profile and quality level

Extensões da distribuição de Lindley para análise de dados de sobrevivência

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