Análise da frequência anual das condições de céu em Botucatu, São Paulo

This paper presents an analysis of the frequency of the sky conditions in Botucatu. The classification of sky conditions was made based on the clearness index (K T), calculated from a database with 10 years of measured daily global solar radiation. Throughout the year in Botucatu, there is a predominance of days with clear sky condition, on average 114 days. For cloudy sky condition, the average frequency is 61 days. About the two intermediate sky conditions, the frequency of the sky partially cloudy with dominance for the diffuse is 94 days and the one with dominance for the clear is 96 days. The main influential factors on the sky conditions in Botucatu are the inputs of cold fronts and the formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. They respond primarily by altering the sky condition of clear to cloudy or partially cloudy with dominance to diffuse. The aerosols resulting from burning in sugarcane fields respond by altering the sky condition from clear to partly cloudy with dominance for the clear.

Estimates of hourly diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces in southeast of brazil

The global radiation incident on a tilted surfaces consists of components direct, diffuse and reflected from the ground. On a hourly database, the direct radiation can be calculated by geometric projections (ratio of the incidence angle to the solar zenith angle). The reflected radiation has a small effect on calculations and may be calculated with an isotropic model. Both components presents dependence of measures in incidence or horizontal surface. The great difficulty is to evaluate the diffuse radiation by variations of circumsolar, brightness horizontal, isotropic and anisotropic subcomponents. This study evaluated twenty models to estimate hourly diffuse radiation incident on tilted surfaces at 12.85° (latitude - 10°), 22.85° (latitude) and 32.85° (latitude + 10°) facing to North, under different cloudiness sky conditions, in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil (22°53' S, 48°26' W and 786 m above the mean sea level). In contrast, models for estimating the diffuse component show major differences, which justify the validation for local calibrations. There is a decrease of the maximum total radiation scattered with increasing atmospheric transmissivity and inclination angle. The best results are obtained by anisotropic models: Ma and Iqbal, Hay, Reindl et al. and Willmott; isotropic: Badescu and Koronakis, and the Circumsolar model. The increase of the inclination angle allows for a reduction in the performance of statistical parametric models for estimating the hourly diffuse radiation.

Estimativas das radiações direta e difusa em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Statistical equations were obtained and evaluated with annual, seasonal and monthly data groupings for estimates of direct and diffuse components of solar radiation based on the sunshine duration (ratio of sunshine and photoperiod) incident on horizontal and inclined surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° with facing to North, in Botucatu, SP. The ratios between the two components and radiation at the top of the atmosphere were used, in a database whose inclinations were measured in three different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) and concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The correlations showed a linear and second degree polynomial behavior for the direct and diffuse radiation, with higher coefficients of determination in periods of low variation in the coverage of the sky (cloudiness). The highest values of the direct and diffuse radiation were found in winter and summer, respectively for all surfaces evaluated. The increase in the inclination angle decreased the performance of equations in all groups of data with increase in scattering and decrease in index of the adjustment, however, the monthly equations allowed better performance for the two components.

Distribuição de frequência das condições de céu em função das variações climáticas em Botucatu-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Potencial solar das radiações global, difusa e direta em Botucatu

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Análise espacial e temporal da precipitação, do material particulado e da radiação global em municípios paulistas

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Evolução diurna e anual da frequência das coberturas de céu em Botucatu/SP

This work presents an analysis of the pattern variation of the sky conditions in Botucatu/SP. The classification was based on the clarness index KT. It was used in the classification a database of global solar irradiance in the horizontal, measured at Radiometric Station of UNESP in Botucatu (latitude 22.85°S, longitude 48.43°W, altitude 786 m) from 1996 to 2005. We analyzed the variations in frequency, during the photoperiod and over the year, of the sky conditions: I - Cloudy (KT < 0.35); II - party cloudy with dominance for the diffuse (0.35 < 0.55 < KT)) III - party cloudy with dominance for the clear (0.55 < KT < 0.65) and IV - clear (KT > 0.65). The frequency of sky conditions I and II are higher during the rainy season of the year and in hours close to sunrise and sunset. And it is lower during the dry season an in hours near noon, in wich there is a predominance of sky conditions III and IV. The monthly hourly frequency of sky condition I ranged from 46,91% of the photoperiod in January to 25.27% in August. And the frequency monthly daily ranged from nine days in January to three days in August. To the sky condition IV, the frequency monthly hourly ranged from 38.81% of the photoperiod in August to 18.17% im January. And the frequency monthly daily ranged from 17 days in August to three days in January.

Diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces in Southeast of Brazil

Evaluation has been made on the monthly and annual average diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse radiation as well as its radiometric fractions on surfaces inclined at 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° to face North, in climate conditions of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil (22.85° S and 48.43° W). Measurements were made between 04/1998 to 08/2001 for 22.85°; 09/2001 to 02/2003 for 12.85° and 01/2004 to 12/2007 for 32.85°, with concomitant measures in the horizontal. For all surfaces the diffuse radiation was obtained from different method. Assessment has been performed as well on the radiometric fractions obtained from the ratio of diffuse radiation and global radiation (KDH and KDβ) and between radiation and diffuse radiation at the top of the atmosphere (KʹDH and KʹDβ) for the horizontal and tilted surfaces in hourly partition. The diffuse radiation levels were dependent on variations in precipitation and cloudiness. There was an increase in the differences between the diffuse radiation and the radiometric fractions with the increment of the angle, and in horizontally, which affected higher levels of diffuse radiation in spring and summer. The values of KDH and KDβ present in an inverse behavior were compared to diffuse radiation and theydecreased in the southern passage due to the increase of the direct component in the total of incident radiation.

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mass extinctions, galactic orbits in the solar neighborhood and the Sun: a connection?

The orbits of the stars in the disk of the Galaxy, and their passages through the Galactic spiral arms, are a rarely mentioned factor of biosphere stability which might be important for long-term planetary climate evolution, with a possible bearing on mass extinctions. The Sun lies very near the co-rotation radius, where stars revolve around the Galaxy in the same period as the density wave perturbations of the spiral arms. conventional wisdom generally considers that this status makes for few passages through the spiral arms. Controversy still surrounds whether time spent inside or around spiral arms is dangerous to biospheres and conductive to mass extinctions. Possible threats include giant molecular clouds disturbing the Oort comet cloud and provoking heavy bombardment: a higher exposure to cosmic rays near star forming regions triggering increased cloudiness in Earth atmosphere and ice ages; and the desctruction of Earth's ozone layer posed by supernova explosiosn. We present detailed calculations of the history of spiral arm passages for all 212 solar-type stars nearer than 20 parsecs, including the total time spent inside armsin the last 500 Myr, when the spiral arm position can be traced with good accuracy. We found that there is a large diversity of stellar orbits in the solar neighborhood, and the time fraction spent inside spiral arms can vary from a few percent to nearly half the time. The Sun, despite its proximity to the galactic co-rotation radius, has exceptionally low eccentricity and a low vertical velocity component, and therefore spends 30% of its lifetime crossing the spiral arms, more than most nearby stars. We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun's passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.

On the lifecycle of aerosol particles : Sources and dispersion over Scandinavia

Aerosol particles are likely important contributors to our future climate. Further, during recent years, effects on human health arising from emissions of particulate material have gained increasing attention. In order to quantify the effect of aerosols on both climate and human health we need to better quantify the interplay between sources and sinks of aerosol particle number and mass on large spatial scales. So far long-term, regional observations of aerosol properties have been scarce, but argued necessary in order to bring the knowledge of regional and global distribution of aerosols further. In this context, regional studies of aerosol properties and aerosol dynamics are truly important areas of investigation. This thesis is devoted to investigations of aerosol number size distribution observations performed through the course of one year encompassing observational data from five stations covering an area from southern parts of Sweden up to northern parts of Finland. This thesis tries to give a description of aerosol size distribution dynamics from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The thesis focuses on properties and changes in aerosol size distribution as a function of location, season, source area, transport pathways and links to various meteorological conditions. The investigations performed in this thesis show that although the basic behaviour of the aerosol number size distribution in terms of seasonal and diurnal characteristics is similar at all stations in the measurement network, the aerosol over the Nordic countries is characterised by a typically sharp gradient in aerosol number and mass. This gradient is argued to derive from geographical locations of the stations in relation to the dominant sources and transport pathways. It is clear that the source area significantly determine the aerosol size distribution properties, but it is obvious that transport condition in terms of frequency of precipitation and cloudiness in some cases even more strongly control the evolution of the number size distribution. Aerosol dynamic processes under clear sky transport are however likewise argued to be highly important. Southerly transport of marine air and northerly transport of air from continental sources is studied in detail under clear sky conditions by performing a pseudo-Lagrangian box model evaluation of the two type cases. Results from both modelling and observations suggest that nucleation events contribute to integral number increase during southerly transport of comparably clean marine air, while number depletion dominates the evolution of the size distribution during northerly transport. This difference is largely explained by different concentration of pre-existing aerosol surface associated with the two type cases. Mass is found to be accumulated in many of the individual transport cases studied. This mass increase was argued to be controlled by emission of organic compounds from the boreal forest. This puts the boreal forest in a central position for estimates of aerosol forcing on a regional scale.

Astronomical site testing in the era of the extremely large telescopes

The quality of astronomical sites is the first step to be considered to have the best performances from the telescopes. In particular, the efficiency of large telescopes in UV, IR, radio etc. is critically dependent on atmospheric transparency. It is well known that the random optical effects induced on the light propagation by turbulent atmosphere also limit telescope’s performances. Nowadays, clear appears the importance to correlate the main atmospheric physical parameters with the optical quality reachable by large aperture telescopes. The sky quality evaluation improved with the introduction of new techniques, new instrumentations and with the understanding of the link between the meteorological (or synoptical parameters and the observational conditions thanks to the application of the theories of electromagnetic waves propagation in turbulent medias: what we actually call astroclimatology. At the present the site campaigns are evolved and are performed using the classical scheme of optical seeing properties, meteorological parameters, sky transparency, sky darkness and cloudiness. New concept are added and are related to the geophysical properties such as seismicity, microseismicity, local variability of the climate, atmospheric conditions related to the ground optical turbulence and ground wind regimes, aerosol presence, use of satellite data. The purpose of this project is to provide reliable methods to analyze the atmospheric properties that affect ground-based optical astronomical observations and to correlate them with the main atmospheric parameters generating turbulence and affecting the photometric accuracy. The first part of the research concerns the analysis and interpretation of longand short-time scale meteorological data at two of the most important astronomical sites located in very different environments: the Paranal Observatory in the Atacama Desert (Chile), and the Observatorio del Roque de Los Muchachos(ORM) located in La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain). The optical properties of airborne dust at ORM have been investigated collecting outdoor data using a ground-based dust monitor. Because of its dryness, Paranal is a suitable observatory for near-IR observations, thus the extinction properties in the spectral range 1.00-2.30 um have been investigated using an empirical method. Furthermore, this PhD research has been developed using several turbulence profilers in the selection of the site for the European Extremely Large Telescope(E-ELT). During the campaigns the properties of the turbulence at different heights at Paranal and in the sites located in northern Chile and Argentina have been studied. This given the possibility to characterize the surface layer turbulence at Paranal and its connection with local meteorological conditions.

Messungen von salpetriger Säure und Eispartikeln im Nachlauf von Flugzeugen

Ziel dieser Arbeit war der Aufbau und Einsatz des Atmosphärischen chemischen Ionisations-Massenspektrometers AIMS für boden- und flugzeuggetragene Messungen von salpetriger Säure (HONO). Für das Massenspektrometer wurden eine mit Gleichspannung betriebene Gasentladungsionenquelle und ein spezielles Druckregelventil entwickelt. Während der Instrumentenvergleichskampagne FIONA (Formal Intercomparisons of Observations of Nitrous Acid) an einer Atmosphären-Simulationskammer in Valencia (Spanien) wurde AIMS für HONO kalibriert und erstmals eingesetzt. In verschiedenen Experimenten wurden HONO-Mischungsverhältnisse zwischen 100 pmol/mol und 25 nmol/mol erzeugt und mit AIMS interferenzfrei gemessen. Innerhalb der Messunsicherheit von ±20% stimmen die massenspektrometrischen Messungen gut mit den Methoden der Differenziellen Optischen Absorptions-Spektrometrie und der Long Path Absorption Photometrie überein. Die Massenspektrometrie kann somit zum schnellen und sensitiven Nachweis von HONO in verschmutzter Stadtluft und in Abgasfahnen genutzt werden.rnErste flugzeuggetragene Messungen von HONO mit AIMS wurden 2011 bei der Messkampagne CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) auf dem DLR Forschungsflugzeug Falcon durchgeführt. Hierbei konnte eine Nachweisgrenze von < 10 pmol/mol (3σ, 1s) erreicht werden. Bei Verfolgungsflügen wurden im jungen Abgasstrahl von Passagierflugzeugen molare HONO zu Stickoxid-Verhältnisse (HONO/NO) von 2.0 bis 2.5% gemessen. HONO wird im Triebwerk durch die Reaktion von NO mit OH gebildet. Ein gemessener abnehmender Trend der HONO/NO Verhältnisse mit zunehmendem Stickoxid-Emissionsindex wurde bestätigt und weist auf eine OH Limitierung im jungen Abgasstrahl hin.rnNeben den massenspektrometrischen Messungen wurden Flugzeugmessungen der Partikelsonde Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe FSSP-300 in jungen Kondensstreifen ausgewertet und analysiert. Aus den gemessenen Partikelgrößenverteilungen wurden Extinktions- und optische Tiefe-Verteilungen abgeleitet und für die Untersuchung verschiedener wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen, z.B. bezüglich der Partikelform in jungen Kondensstreifen und ihrer Klimawirkung, zur Verfügung gestellt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde der Einfluss des Flugzeug- und Triebwerktyps auf mikrophysikalische und optische Eigenschaften von Kondensstreifen untersucht. Unter ähnlichen meteorologischen Bedingungen bezüglich Feuchte, Temperatur und stabiler thermischer Schichtung wurden 2 Minuten alte Kondensstreifen der Passagierflugzeuge vom Typ A319-111, A340-311 und A380-841 verglichen. Im Rahmen der Messunsicherheit wurde keine Änderung des Effektivdurchmessers der Partikelgrößenverteilungen gefunden. Hingegen nehmen mit zunehmendem Flugzeuggewicht die Partikelanzahldichte (162 bis 235 cm-3), die Extinktion (2.1 bis 3.2 km-1), die Absinktiefe des Kondensstreifens (120 bis 290 m) und somit die optische Tiefe der Kondensstreifen (0.25 bis 0.94) zu. Der gemessene Trend wurde durch Vergleich mit zwei unabhängigen Kondensstreifen-Modellen bestätigt. Mit den Messungen wurde eine lineare Abhängigkeit der totalen Extinktion (Extinktion mal Querschnittsfläche des Kondensstreifens) vom Treibstoffverbrauch pro Flugstrecke gefunden und bestätigt.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.