Comportamento do arsênio em perfis de solos do Sítio Ilha de Terra de Caxiuanã-Pará

Concentrações de arsênio em perfis de solos com terra preta arqueológica (TPA) e solos de área adjacente (AD) do Sítio Ilha de Terra, Caxiuanã, no Estado do Pará, região Amazônica, podem dar informações sobre as atividades antropogênicas dos habitantes dessa região. Análises químicas e mineralógicas foram realizadas nas amostras desses perfis. Os dados obtidos mostram que as concentrações do Fe e As aumentam com a profundidade dos perfis de solos, enquanto que as concentrações de matéria orgânica (MO) decrescem; as concentrações mais elevadas de Fe e As são observadas no perfil AD. Esses resultados indicam interações entre Fe e As e sugerem que a MO nos solos promove a dissolução da goethita e lixiviação do Fe e As no perfil TPA.

Efeito da incorporação de macrófitas aquáticas sobre características químicas de solo degradado

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

Análise espacial e quimiométrica da distribuição de espécies metálicas em solos alagáveis e não alagáveis da Bacia do Médio Rio Negro, Amazônia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aircraft-based in-situ aerosol mass spectrometry: Chemical characterization and source identification of submicron particulate matter in the free and upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The composition of the atmosphere is frequently perturbed by the emission of gaseous and particulate matter from natural as well as anthropogenic sources. While the impact of trace gases on the radiative forcing of the climate is relatively well understood the role of aerosol is far more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the vertical distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere and its chemical composition contribute valuable information to bridge this gap of knowledge. The chemical composition of aerosol reveals information on properties such as radiative behavior and hygroscopicity and therefore cloud condensation or ice nucleus potential. rnThis thesis focuses on aerosol pollution plumes observed in 2008 during the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) campaign over Greenland in June/July and CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) campaign over Central and Western Europe in October/November. Measurements were performed with an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) capable of online size-resolved chemical characterization of non-refractory submicron particles. In addition, the origins of pollution plumes were determined by means of modeling tools. The characterized pollution episodes originated from a large variety of sources and were encountered at distinct altitudes. They included pure natural emissions from two volcanic eruptions in 2008. By the time of detection over Western Europe between 10 and 12 km altitude the plume was about 3 months old and composed to 71 % of particulate sulfate and 21 % of carbonaceous compounds. Also, biomass burning (BB) plumes were observed over Greenland between 4 and 7 km altitude (free troposphere) originating from Canada and East Siberia. The long-range transport took roughly one and two weeks, respectively. The aerosol was composed of 78 % organic matter and 22 % particulate sulfate. Some Canadian and all Siberian BB plumes were mixed with anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF) in North America and East Asia. It was found that the contribution of particulate sulfate increased with growing influences from anthropogenic activity and Asia reaching up to 37 % after more than two weeks of transport time. The most exclusively anthropogenic emission source probed in the upper troposphere was engine exhaust from commercial aircraft liners over Germany. However, in-situ characterization of this aerosol type during aircraft chasing was not possible. All long-range transport aerosol was found to have an O:C ratio close to or greater than 1 implying that low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol was present in each case despite the variety of origins and the large range in age from 3 to 100 days. This leads to the conclusion that organic particulate matter reaches a final and uniform state of oxygenation after at least 3 days in the free troposphere. rnExcept for aircraft exhaust all emission sources mentioned above are surface-bound and thus rely on different types of vertical transport mechanisms, such as direct high altitude injection in the case of a volcanic eruption, or severe BB, or uplift by convection, to reach higher altitudes where particles can travel long distances before removal mainly caused by cloud scavenging. A lifetime for North American mixed BB and FF aerosol of 7 to 11 days was derived. This in consequence means that emission from surface point sources, e.g. volcanoes, or regions, e.g. East Asia, do not only have a relevant impact on the immediate surroundings but rather on a hemispheric scale including such climate sensitive zones as the tropopause or the Arctic.

Invasion patterns of emerald ash borer and European earthworms in forested ecosystems

Invasive and exotic species present a serious threat to the health and sustainability of natural ecosystems. These species often benefit from anthropogenic activities that aid their introduction and dispersal. This dissertation focuses on invasion dynamics of the emerald ash borer, native to Asia, and European earthworms. These species have shown detrimental impacts in invaded forest ecosystems across the Great Lakes region, and continue to spread via human-assisted long distance dispersal and by natural modes of dispersal into interior forests from areas of introduction. Successful forest management requires that the impact and effect of invasive species be considered and incorporated into management plans. Understanding patterns and constraints of introduction, establishment, and spread will aid in this effort. To assist in efforts to locate introduction points of emerald ash borer, a multicriteria risk model was developed to predict the highest risk areas. Important parameters in the model were road proximity, land cover type, and campground proximity. The model correctly predicted 85% of known emerald ash borer invasion sites to be at high risk. The model’s predictions across northern Michigan can be used to focus and guide future monitoring efforts. Similar modeling efforts were applied to the prediction of European earthworm invasion in northern Michigan forests. Field sampling provided a means to improve upon modeling efforts for earthworms to create current and future predictions of earthworm invasion. Those sites with high soil pH and high basal area of earthworm preferred overstory species (such as basswood and maples) had the highest likelihood of European earthworm invasion. Expanding beyond Michigan into the Upper Great Lakes region, earthworm populations were sampled across six National Wildlife Refuges to identify potential correlates and deduce specific drivers and constraints of earthworm invasion. Earthworm communities across all refuges were influenced by patterns of anthropogenic activity both within refuges and in surrounding ecoregions of study. Forest composition, soil pH, soil organic matter, anthropogenic cover, and agriculture proximity also proved to be important drivers of earthworm abundance and community composition. While there are few management options to remove either emerald ash borer or European earthworms from forests after they have become well established, prevention and early detection are important and can be beneficial. An improved understanding the factors controlling the distribution and invasion patterns of exotic species across the landscape will aid efforts to determine their consequences and generate appropriate forest management solutions to sustain ecosystem health in the presence of these invaders.

A 2600-year record of past polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) deposition at Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany)

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a proxy for climate- and human-related historical fire activity which has rarely been used beyond 1800 AD. We explored the concentration and composition patterns of PAHs together with other proxies (charcoal, C, N, S, δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S) in a sediment core of Holzmaar as indicators of variations in climate and anthropogenic activity over the past 2600 years. The concentrations of pyrogenic PAHs remained low (< 500 ng g− 1) from the pre-Roman Iron Age (600 BC) until the first significant increases to ca. 1000–1800 ng g− 1 between 1700 and 1750 AD related to regional iron production. The highest increases in pyrogenic PAH concentrations occurred with industrialization peaking in the 1960s. PAH concentrations in most recent sediments decreased to pre-industrial levels because of emission control measures and the switch from coal to oil and gas as major fuel sources. Fluxes of PAHs (mg km− 2 yr− 1) increased in the order Migration Period and Early Middle Ages < pre-Roman Iron Ages < Roman era < High Middle Ages and Renaissance < pre-industrial modern period < industrial modern period. The changes of PAHs fluxes in pre-industrial times parallel known changes in local, regional and continental anthropogenic activity and climatic variations or their interactions across these historical periods. Perylene, a mainly biologically produced compound, was the dominant PAH in pre-industrial times. The Migration Period and the Early Middle Ages witnessed the most profound and simultaneous changes to the sedimentary organic matter properties in the past 2600 years including the lowest PAH fluxes because of reduced human activity and more negative δ13C and δ15N values probably in response to colder and wetter conditions.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and physiological and mechanical properties of the starfish Asterias rubens in a laboratory experiment

The increase in atmospheric CO2 due to anthropogenic activity results in an acidification of the surface waters of the oceans. Its impact will depend on the considered organisms and ecosystems. The intertidal may harbor organisms pre-adapted to the upcoming changes as they face tidal pH and temperature fluctuations. However, these environments will be more affected as shallow waters will face the highest decrease in seawater pH. In this context, the effects of reduced environmental pH on the physiology and tube feet mechanical properties of the intertidal starfish Asterias rubens, a top predator, were investigated during 15 and 27 days. A. rubens showed a respiratory acidosis with its coelomic fluid pH always lower than that of seawater. This acidosis was most pronounced at pH 7.4. Notwithstanding, the starfish showed no significant variations in RNA/DNA ratio of different tissues and in tube feet strength. However, respiration rates were significantly lower for individuals maintained at reduced seawater pH. Within the ocean acidification context, the present results suggest that A. rubens withstands the effects of reduced seawater pH, at least for medium term exposures.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and buffer capacity of the coelomic fluid in echinoderms in a laboratory experiment

The increase in atmospheric CO2 due to anthropogenic activity results in an acidification of the surface waters of the oceans. The impact of these chemical changes depends on the considered organisms. In particular, it depends on the ability of the organism to control the pH of its inner fluids. Among echinoderms, this ability seems to differ significantly according to species or taxa. In the present paper, we investigated the buffer capacity of the coelomic fluid in different echinoderm taxa as well as factors modifying this capacity. Euechinoidea (sea urchins except Cidaroidea) present a very high buffer capacity of the coelomic fluid (from 0.8 to 1.8 mmol/kg SW above that of seawater), while Cidaroidea (other sea urchins), starfish and holothurians have a significantly lower one (from -0.1 to 0.4 mmol/kg SW compared to seawater). We hypothesize that this is linked to the more efficient gas exchange structures present in the three last taxa, whereas Euechinoidea evolved specific buffer systems to compensate lower gas exchange abilities. The constituents of the buffer capacity and the factors influencing it were investigated in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the starfish Asterias rubens. Buffer capacity is primarily due to the bicarbonate buffer system of seawater (representing about 63% for sea urchins and 92% for starfish). It is also partly due to coelomocytes present in the coelomic fluid (around 8% for both) and, in P. lividus only, a compound of an apparent size larger than 3 kDa is involved (about 15%). Feeding increased the buffer capacity in P. lividus (to a difference with seawater of about 2.3 mmol/kg SW compared to unfed ones who showed a difference of about 0.5 mmol/kg SW) but not in A. rubens (difference with seawater of about 0.2 for both conditions). In P. lividus, decreased seawater pH induced an increase of the buffer capacity of individuals maintained at pH 7.7 to about twice that of the control individuals and, for those at pH 7.4, about three times. This allowed a partial compensation of the coelomic fluid pH for individuals maintained at pH 7.7 but not for those at pH 7.4.

Geochemical composition and ages of sediment core BELQ300 obtained from Lake Belau, north Germany

Geochemical and palynological data from an annually laminated core sequence (Lake Belau, Schleswig-Holstein) are interpreted with respect to vegetation and settlement history on the basis of a chronostratigraphical model and archaeological evidence. Most settlement periods indicated by pollen and archaeological data can be geochemically identified in the sediment sequence using tracer elements such as K, Rb, Zr and the K/Zr ratio. Whilst air-borne pollen carry a more regional signal, the sedimentary flux of these trace elements is determined by the allogenic input from the catchment area of the lake and, therefore, provides information about the local history of settlement and agricultural land use in the lake's vicinity. This is exemplified for the period of the middle Neolithic Funnel Beaker Culture ('Iversen landnam'), where a time offset of 250 years between both signals has been detected. In contrast, both geochemical and pollen signals are highly synchronous during the Early Migration Period and the High Medieval Period. Additionally, the Fe/Ca and/or U/Fe ratio may serve as a sensitive tracer for human impact on the trophic state of the lake. The suggested impact of the Romans and the High Medieval civilization can clearly be seen (and quantified) from elevated lead input into Lake Belau sediments at this time. Effects of secular climatic changes on the sedimentary chemistry have not been detected and, if present, seem to have been obliterated by anthropogenic activity.

La geoquímica de los sedimentos de llanuras de inundación como guía para la valoración ambiental en España

En la presente tesis se estudian los contenidos geoquímicos de los sedimentos de llanura de inundación en diversas cuencas fluviales seleccionadas con el objetivo de contribuir a un mejor conocimiento de sus condiciones medioambientales. En cada cuenca, se ha muestreado un perfil vertical de llanura de inundación, dividiéndolo en tramos que generalmente corresponden a diferentes episodios de inundación. Estos sedimentos se depositan durante los episodios de crecidas una vez que la corriente sobrepasa los límites del canal. Se caracterizan normalmente por tener un tamaño de grano fino y una estructura en capas horizontales que corresponden a los sucesivos episodios de inundación. Muestran dos ventajas principales con respecto a otros medios de muestreo en geoquímica como suelos o sedimentos de corriente: • Pueden almacenar sedimento antiguo así como actual, con lo que se puede estudiar la historia geoquímica de una zona específica en un mismo punto de muestreo (perfil vertical). • Los sedimentos de llanuras de inundación son capaces de caracterizar grandes áreas de drenaje. El origen de los sedimentos es más diverso que en el sedimento de corriente, debido a las mayores áreas de donde proceden las aguas de las avenidas. Las cuencas han sido seleccionadas según las actividades antropogénicas que en ellas se llevan a cabo, en concreto, actividades urbanas e industriales, minería y agricultura. Así mismo, se han estudiado, como referencia, dos cuencas donde no se espera encontrar ningún tipo de actividad contaminante. Una vez hecha la selección, los sedimentos aluviales de las cuencas se han estudiado cuidadosamente para asegurar que no existen depósitos de acreción lateral en el punto seleccionado. Posteriormente se ha procedido al muestreo del perfil vertical. Las muestras han sido analizadas mediante ICP-MS (ataque total) e INAA para conocer los contenidos totales de los elementos traza y mayoritarios. Los análisis de la fracción extraíble se han llevado a cabo mediante ICP-MS (ataque con agua regia). Así mismo, algunas muestras seleccionadas han sido sometidas a una extracción secuencial para un estudio más detallado. La presencia de materia orgánica ha sido estimada mediante el análisis de Carbono Orgánico Total (TOC). Finalmente, se ha llevado a cabo un análisis de isótopos de Pb en muestras escogidas en los perfiles, con el objetivo de hacer una evaluación ambiental. Los contenidos metálicos aumentan hacia la superficie en algunos de los perfiles, mientras en otros muestran una distribución muy constante exceptuando algún nivel específico con un aumento de los contenidos de la mayoría de los metales. Ha sido posible determinar la influencia de las actividades antropogénicas en algunos de los perfiles. Aquellos que pertenecen a cuencas mineras, urbanas o industrializadas muestran generalmente altos contenidos en elementos metálicos. Es el caso de los perfiles muestreados en los ríos Odiel y Tinto, Besaya, Besós y Manzanares. Algunos de estos perfiles pueden incluso correlacionarse con periodos de tiempo en los que ha tenido lugar una actividad antropogénica más intensa. Los perfiles que mejor se correlacionan con la actividad antropogénica de la cuenca son el perfil de Rivas en el río Manzanares (Madrid), que refleja un crecimiento de la contaminación producida por las actividades urbana e industrial en las últimas décadas, y el río Tinto, que muestra un crecimiento llamativo de los contenidos en su mayoría metálicos que puede estar relacionado con el incremento de la actividad minera que tuvo lugar hace aproximadamente 125 años. El análisis de los isótopos de Pb ha resultado ser una herramienta útil en la evaluación ambiental de estos sedimentos. Con este estudio y mediante la comparación con fuentes naturales y antropogénicas, ha sido posible diferenciar las muestras afectadas por diferentes fuentes de plomo, así como detectar las más afectadas antropogénicamente. ABSTRACT The geochemical composition of overbank sediments of some selected river basins is studied in this thesis in order to contribute to a better knowledge of the environmental conditions surrounding them. In each basin a vertical overbank profile has been sampled, dividing it into stretches that usually correspond to different flood events. The overbank sediments are those deposited during a flood event once the flow spills over the channel banks. They are usually characterized by a very fine grain size and a structure of horizontal layers, which correspond to successive flood events. These sediments show two main advantages regarding other sampling media in geochemistry, like soils or stream sediments: • They can store sediment deposited in the past as well as in current times, so that the history of a specific location can be studied at the very same point (vertical profile). • The overbank sediments are able to characterize a large drainage area. The origin of the sediment is wider than in the stream sediments due to the larger areas where the flood water comes from. The basins have been selected depending on the anthropogenic activities developed in them, namely, urban and industrial activities, mining activities and agricultural activities. As well, two pristine basins have been studied as a reference. Afterwards, the alluvial sediments in the basins have been carefully studied in order to sample a vertical profile and make sure that lateral accretion materials are not present in the profile. The samples have been analysed by ICP-MS (total digestion) and INAA to know the total contents of trace and major elements. Analysis of the mobile fraction has been carried out by ICP-MS (aqua regia); as well some of the samples have been subjected to sequential extraction for a more detailed study. The presence of organic matter has been estimated by the analysis of the Total Organic Carbon (TOC). Finally, a lead isotope analysis of some of the samples in the profiles was carried out in order to make an environmental assessment. Metal contents grow towards the surface in some of the profiles, while others show a very steady distribution, except for some of them with a growth of most of the metals in a specific level. XI It has been possible to determine the influence of the anthropogenic activities in some of the profiles. The ones that belong to mining and urban or industrialized basins show generally high contents of metal elements. This is the case of the profiles sampled in the Odiel and Tinto Rivers, the Besaya River, the Besós River and the Manzanares River. Some of these profiles can even correlate with the periods of time when a more intense activity in their respective basins has taken place. The profiles which best correlate with the anthropogenic activity are the Rivas profile in the Manzanares River, which reflects a growth of the pollution produced by urban and industrial activities in the city of Madrid in the last decades and the Tinto profile, which shows a very dramatic growth of the elemental contents (mostly metals) which can be related to the increase of the mining activities that took place in the last 125 years. The analysis of lead isotopes has turned out to be a powerful tool in the environmental assessment in this type of sediments. With this study and through the comparison with natural and anthropogenic sources, it has been possible to determine samples affected by different sources of lead and to detect the most anthropogenicaly affected ones.

Historia holocena de los pinares montanos de los sistemas Central y Cantábrico: Un objetivo con dos enfoques, biogeográfico y dendroecológico

Los estudios paleoecológicos holocenos basados en macro- y megafósiles encierran un gran valor debido a que su información tiene generalmente carácter local, su origen es conocido, pueden ser datados directamente mediante el método radiocarbónico, y pueden identificarse a un nivel taxonómicamente preciso. Sin embargo son pocas las áreas del Sur de Europa en las que sea conocida una alta densidad de yacimientos con restos leñosos de gran tamaño. En esta tesis, se presentan datos de 53 yacimientos de la sierra de Gredos y de la cordillera Cantábrica (Península Ibérica). Los restos fueron hallados en ambientes variados, como zonas higroturbosas, turberas erosionadas o lagos, y fueron identificadas mediante el estudio de la anatomía de la madera o mediante rasgos morfológicos. En la sierra de Gredos, la evidencia paleobotánica indica la existencia de un panorama relativamente estable a lo largo del Holoceno medio y principio del Holoceno final y sugiere la persistencia, a lo largo de milenios, de un piso de pinares ampliamente distribuído en cotas altas de la sierra. La información obtenida de piñas y frutos mejoran la información taxonómica disponible y revelan la existencia tanto de Pinus sylvestris como de Pinus nigra en estas sierras durante el Holoceno. La datación radiocarbónica, medición de anillos de crecimiento y sincronización preliminar de 26 secciones de troncos de subfósiles demuestran el potencial de este material de las montañas de Iberia central en la obtención de cronologías holocenas de pino. En la cordillera Cantábrica, los datos aportan información espacialmente precisa de distribuciones de ciertas especies arbóreas durante el Holoceno. En las zonas centrales de la cordillera, han sido hallados fundamentalmente restos de pino, mientras que en las zonas más occidentales los pinos estás ausentes y los restos encontrados corresponden a otras especies de caducifolios (Betula, Salix, Quercus) y arbustos (Erica, Fabaceae) Esta información paleobiogeográfica constrasta con la distribución natural actual de Pinus sylvestris y Pinus nigra en el área de estudio. En la sierra de Gredos, la naturalidad de las escasos rodales de pinos que aún persisten ha sido discutida, mientras que en la cordillera Cantábrica, la única especie del grupo que persiste es P. sylvestris y está localizada en unos pocos relictos. El clima pudo haber jugado un papel importante en una primera fase de declive de los pinares durante el Holoceno inicial, mostrado en numerosos registros polínicos de manera casi sincrónica y asociada a una expansión de frondosas. Sin embargo la información histórica disponible y la comparación entre las áreas de distribución de los pinares en el presente, modelizada y en momentos anteriores a la la generalización de la presión antrópica sugiere que durante los últimos dos milenios, la actividad humana ha sido responsable de la desaparición de estas especies como árboles naturales en áreas extensas. ABSTRACTMacro- and megafossil studies provide information of great value in palaeoecology because such evidence is spatially precise, directly radiocarbon dated and usually taxon-specific. However, few areas of southern Europe have a high density of sites with Holocene woody remains. Here, local data from 53 sites in the Gredos Mountains and the Cantabrian Range (Iberian Peninsula) is presented. Woody remains were recovered from mires, eroded peat bogs and lakes and were identified by their wood anatomy or morphological traits. In the Gredos Mountains, palaeobotanical evidence portrays a relatively stable picture of tree distribution over the mid- and beggining of the late-Holocene, and suggests the persistence of a widespread belt of pinewoods. Cones and fruits enlarge the taxonomic information available and reveal that both Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra were present locally during the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating, tree ring measurement and preliminary cross-dating of 26 pine sub-fossil logs demonstrate the potential of obtaining a long pine chronology from subfossil wood from the mountains of Central Iberia. In the Cantabrian Range the data provide spatially precise evidence of tree distribution in the region during the Holocene. Pines were mostly identified in the central areas, whereas at the western edge no pine evidence was detected and deciduous trees (Betula, Salix, Quercus) and shrubs (Erica, Fabaceae) were identified. This palaeoecological information contrasts with the current natural distribution ranges of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the study area. In the Gredos Mountains, the naturality of the few pine stands currently growing has been heavily debated. In the Cantabrian Range P. sylvestris is the only pine species that is today present, and its natural presence is now limited to a few enclaves. Climate may have played a key role in the early-Holocene, as pollen archives document a pine demise that is synchronous with the spread of broadleaved taxa. However, available historical data and the comparison of the reconstructed distribution of pinewoods before extensive human forest disturbance with both present and modelled distributions suggests that during the last two millennia, anthropogenic activity may have removed these species as native trees from a large territory.

Toward a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission & deposition.

Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land–atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission–deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28–67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45–85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89–179) Tg by 2100.

Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming.