Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

The cup anemometer, a fundamental meteorological instrument for the wind energy industry

The cup anemometer has been used widely by the wind energy industry since its early beginning, covering two fundamental aspects: wind mill performance control and wind energy production forecast. Furthermore, despite modern technological advances such as LIDAR and SODAR, the cup anemometer remains clearly the most used instrument by the wind energy industry. Together with the major advantages of this instrument (precision, robustness), some issues must be taken into account by scientists and researchers when using it. Overspeeding, interaction with stream wakes due to allocation on masts and wind- mills, loss of performance due to wear and tear, change of performance due to different climatic conditions, checking of the maintenance status and recalibration, etc. In the present work a review of the research campaigns carried out at the IDR/UPM Institute to analyze cup anemometer performance is included. Several aspects of this instrument are examined: the calibration process, the loss of performances due to aging and wear and tear, the effect of changes of air density, the rotor aerodynamics, and the harmonic terms contained in the anemometer output signal and their possible relation to the anemometer performances.

Bayesian retrieval of scatterometer wind fields

The retrieval of wind fields from scatterometer observations has traditionally been separated into two phases; local wind vector retrieval and ambiguity removal. Operationally, a forward model relating wind vector to backscatter is inverted, typically using look up tables, to retrieve up to four local wind vector solutions. A heuristic procedure, using numerical weather prediction forecast wind vectors and, often, some neighbourhood comparison is then used to select the correct solution. In this paper we develop a Bayesian method for wind field retrieval, and show how a direct local inverse model, relating backscatter to wind vector, improves the wind vector retrieval accuracy. We compare these results with the operational U.K. Meteorological Office retrievals, our own CMOD4 retrievals and a neural network based local forward model retrieval. We suggest that the neural network based inverse model, which is extremely fast to use, improves upon current forward models when used in a variational data assimilation scheme.

Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Short-Term Trading for a Wind-PV Power Producer in an Electricity Market

This paper deals with the problem of coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic systems in order to find the optimal bid to submit in a pool-based electricity market. The coordination of wind and photovoltaic systems presents uncertainties not only due to electricity market prices, but also with wind and photovoltaic power forecast. Electricity markets are characterized by financial penalties in case of deficit or excess of generation. So, the aim o this work is to reduce these financial penalties and maximize the expected profit of the power producer. The problem is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The proposed approach is validated with real data of pool-based electricity market of Iberian Peninsula.

Crowbar System in Doubly Fed Induction Wind Generators

In the last 15 years, the use of doubly fed induction machines in modern variable-speed wind turbines has increased rapidly. This development has been driven by the cost reduction as well as the low-loss generation of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT). According to new grid code requirements, wind turbines must remain connected to the grid during grid disturbances. Moreover, they must also contribute to voltage support during and after grid faults. The crowbar system is essential to avoid the disconnection of the doubly fed induction wind generators from the network during faults. The insertion of the crowbar in the rotor circuits for a short period of time enables a more efficient terminal voltage control. As a general rule, the activation and the deactivation of the crowbar system is based only on the DC-link voltage level of the back-to-back converters. In this context, the authors discuss the critical rotor speed to analyze the instability of doubly fed induction generators during grid faults.

Methodology to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches

Introduction. This method is used to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches from as early as the plant shooting stage. It facilitates the harvest of bunches with the same physiological age. The principle, key advantages, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. Details of the four steps of the method ( installation of the temperature sensor, tagging bunches at the flowering stage, temperature sum calculation and estimation of bunch harvest date) are described. Possible problems are discussed. Results. The application of the method allows drawing a curve of the temperature sum accumulated by the bunches which have to be harvested at exactly 900 degree-days physiological age.

The qWR star HD 45166 - II. Fundamental stellar parameters and evidence of a latitude-dependent wind

Context. The enigmatic object HD 45166 is a qWR star in a binary system with an orbital period of 1.596 day, and presents a rich emission-line spectrum in addition to absorption lines from the companion star (B7 V). As the system inclination is very small (i = 0.77 degrees +/- 0.09 degrees), HD 45166 is an ideal laboratory for wind-structure studies. Aims. The goal of the present paper is to determine the fundamental stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star. Methods. A radiative transfer model for the wind and photosphere of the qWR star was calculated using the non-LTE code CMFGEN. The wind asymmetry was also analyzed using a recently-developed version of CMFGEN to compute the emerging spectrum in two-dimensional geometry. The temporal-variance spectrum (TVS) was calculated to study the line-profile variations. Results. Abundances and stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star were obtained. The qWR star has an effective temperature of T(eff) = 50 000 +/- 2000 K, a luminosity of log(L/L(circle dot)) = 3.75 +/- 0.08, and a corresponding photospheric radius of R(phot) = 1.00 R(circle dot). The star is helium-rich (N(H)/N(He) = 2.0), while the CNO abundances are anomalous when compared either to solar values, to planetary nebulae, or to WR stars. The mass-loss rate is. M = 2.2 x 10(-7) M(circle dot) yr(-1), and the wind terminal velocity is v(infinity) = 425 km s(-1). The comparison between the observed line profiles and models computed under different latitude-dependent wind densities strongly suggests the presence of an oblate wind density enhancement, with a density contrast of at least 8: 1 from equator to pole. If a high velocity polar wind is present (similar to 1200 km s(-1)), the minimum density contrast is reduced to 4:1. Conclusions. The wind parameters determined are unusual when compared to O-type stars or to typical WR stars. While for WR stars v(infinity)/v(esc) > 1.5, in the case of HD 45166 it is much smaller (v(infinity)/v(esc) = 0.32). In addition, the efficiency of momentum transfer is eta = 0.74, which is at least 4 times smaller than in a typical WR. We find evidence for the presence of a wind compression zone, since the equatorial wind density is significantly higher than the polar wind. The TVS supports the presence of such a latitude-dependent wind and a variable absorption/scattering gas near the equator.

Detection of high-velocity material from the wind-wind collision zone of Eta Carinae across the 2009.0 periastron passage

We report near-infrared spectroscopic observations of the Eta Carinae massive binary system during 2008-2009 using the CRIRES spectrograph mounted on the 8m UT 1 Very Large Telescope (VLT Antu). We detect a strong, broad absorption wing in He I lambda 10833 extending up to -1900 km s(-1) across the 2009.0 spectroscopic event. Analysis of archival Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph ultraviolet and optical data identifies a similar high-velocity absorption (up to -2100 km s(-1)) in the ultraviolet resonance lines of Si IV lambda lambda 1394, 1403 across the 2003.5 event. Ultraviolet resonance lines from low-ionization species, such as Si II lambda lambda 1527, 1533 and CII lambda lambda 1334, 1335, show absorption only up to -1200 km s(-1), indicating that the absorption with velocities -1200 to -2100 km s(-1) originates in a region markedly more rapidly moving and more ionized than the nominal wind of the primary star. Seeing-limited observations obtained at the 1.6m OPD/LNA telescope during the last four spectroscopic cycles of Eta Carinae (1989-2009) also show high-velocity absorption in He I lambda 10833 during periastron. Based on the large OPD/LNA dataset, we determine that material with velocities more negative than -900 km s(-1) is present in the phase range 0.976 <= phi <= 1.023 of the spectroscopic cycle, but absent in spectra taken at phi <= 0.947 and phi >= 1.049. Therefore, we constrain the duration of the high-velocity absorption to be 95 to 206 days (or 0.047 to 0.102 in phase). We propose that the high-velocity absorption component originates in shocked gas in the wind-wind collision zone, at distances of 15 to 45 AU in the line-of-sight to the primary star. With the aid of three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the wind-wind collision zone, we find that the dense high-velocity gas is along the line-of-sight to the primary star only if the binary system is oriented in the sky such that the companion is behind the primary star during periastron, corresponding to a longitude of periastron of omega similar to 240 degrees-270 degrees. We study a possible tilt of the orbital plane relative to the Homunculus equatorial plane and conclude that our data are broadly consistent with orbital inclinations in the range i = 40 degrees-60 degrees.

Robust STATCOM control for the stabilisation of fixed-speed wind turbines during low voltages

This paper presents a robust voltage control scheme for fixed-speed wind generators using a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) controller. To enable a linear and robust control framework with structured uncertainty, the overall system is represented by a linear part plus a nonlinear part that covers an operating range of interest required to ensure stability during severe low voltages. The proposed methodology is flexible and readily applicable to larger wind farms of different configurations. The performance of the control strategy is demonstrated on a two area test system. Large disturbance simulations demonstrate that the proposed controller enhances voltage stability as well as transient stability of induction generators during low voltage ride through (LVRT) transients and thus enhances the LVRT capability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Justified Fault-Ride-Through Requirements for Wind Turbines in Power Systems

In this paper, a novel adaptive strategy to obtain technically justified fault-ride-through requirements for wind turbines (WTs) is proposed. The main objective is to promote an effective integration of wind turbines into power systems with still low penetration levels of wind power based on technical and economical considerations. The level of requirement imposed by the strategy is increased stepwise over time, depending on system characteristics and on wind power penetration level. The idea behind is to introduce stringent requirements only when they are technically needed for a reliable and secure power system operation. Voltage stability support and fault-ride-through requirements are considered in the strategy. Simulations are based on the Chilean transmission network, a midsize isolated power system with still low penetration levels of wind power. Simulations include fixed speed induction generators and doubly fed induction generators. The effects on power system stability of the wind power injections, integrated into the network by adopting the adaptive strategy, are compared with the effects that have the same installed capacity of wind power but only considering WTs able to fulfill stringent requirements (fault-ride-through capability and support voltage stability). Based on simulations and international experience, technically justified requirements for the Chilean case are proposed.

Digital control and integration of a 192 MW wind farm with doubly fed induction generator into the Brazilian power system

This paper reports on design of digital control for wind turbines and its relation to the quality of power fed into the Brazilian grid on connecting to it a 192 MW wind farm equipped with doubly fed induction generators. PWM converters are deployed as vector controlled regulated current voltage sources for their rotors, for independent control of both active and reactive power of those generators. Both speed control and active power control strategies are analyzed, in the search for maximum efficiency of conversion of wind kinetic energy into electric power and enhanced quality of delivered power. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Desalination of water by reverse osmosis using gravitational potential energy and wind energy

This paper proposes ail alternative configuration to conventional reverse osmosis (RO) desalination systems by incorporating the use of gravitational potential energy. The proposal suggests a model that can be viewed as the energy station of a RO desalination plant. Conventionally, RO plants use a high-pressure pump, powered by electricity or fossil fuel. The function of the pump is to send a flux of saline water to a group of semi-permeable membrane modules, capable of ""filtering"" the dissolved salts. In this proposed model, we intend to achieve a flux at the inlet of the membrane modules with a pressure high enough for the desalination process, without using, either electricity or fossil fuels. To do this we divised a hybrid system that uses both gravitational potential energy and wind energy. The technical viability of the alternative was theoretically proven by deductions based on physics and mathematics.