Assessing the sensitivity and specificity of fish community indicators to management action

We assessed ten trophodynamic indicators of ecosystem status for their sensitivity and specificity to fishing management using a size-resolved multispecies fish community model. The responses of indicators to fishing depended on effort and the size selectivity (sigmoid or Gaussian) of fishing mortality. The highest specificity against sigmoid (trawl-like) size selection was seen from inverse fishing pressure and the large fish indicator, but for Gaussian size selection, the large species indicator was most specific. Biomass, mean trophic level of the community and of the catch, and fishing in balance had the lowest specificity against both size selectivities. Length-based indicators weighted by biomass, rather than abundance, were more sensitive and specific to fishing pressure. Most indicators showed a greater response to sigmoid than Gaussian size selection. Indicators were generally more sensitive at low levels of effort because of nonlinear sensitivity in trophic cascades to fishing mortality. No single indicator emerged as superior in all respects, so given available data, multiple complementary indicators are recommended for community monitoring in the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

A population-based study of adverse physical effects following prostate cancer treatments: Results from the PiCTure (Prostate cancer treatment – your experience) study

Background:

Men and clinicians need reliable population based information when making decisions about investigation and treatment of prostate cancer. In the absence of clearly preferred treatments, differences in outcomes become more important.

Aim:

To investigate rates of adverse physical effects among prostate cancer survivors 2-15 years post diagnosis by treatment, and estimate population burden.

Methods:

A cross sectional, postal survey to 6,559 survivors (all ages) diagnosed with primary, invasive prostate cancer (ICD10-C61), identified in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland via cancer registries. Questions included symptoms at diagnosis, treatments received and adverse physical effects (impotence, urinary incontinence, bowel problems, breast changes, libido loss, hot flashes, fatigue) experienced ‘ever’ and ‘current’ i.e. at questionnaire completion. Physical effect levels were weighted by age, country and time since diagnosis for all prostate cancer survivors. Bonferroni corrections were applied to account for multiple comparisons.

Results:

Adjusted response rate 54%, (n=3,348). 75% reported at least one current physical effect (90% ever), with 29% reporting at least three. These varied by treatment. Current impotence was reported by 76% post-prostatectomy, 64% post-external beam radiotherapy with hormone therapy, with average for all survivors of 57%. Urinary incontinence (overall current level: 16%) was highest post-prostatectomy (current 28%, ever 70%). 42% of brachytherapy patients reported no current adverse physical effects; however 43% reported current impotence and 8% current incontinence. Current hot flashes (41%), breast changes (18%) and fatigue (28%) were reported more commonly by patients on hormone therapy.

Conclusions:

This study provides evidence that adverse physical effects following prostate cancer represent a significant public health burden; an estimated 1.6% of men over 45 is a prostate cancer survivor with a current adverse physical effect. This information should facilitate investigation and treatment decision-making and follow-up care of patients.

Patient-reported 'ever had' and 'current' long term physical symptoms following prostate cancer treatments

OBJECTIVE: To document prostate cancer patient reported 'ever experienced' and 'current' prevalence of disease specific physical symptoms stratified by primary treatment received.
PATIENTS: 3,348 prostate cancer survivors 2-15 years post diagnosis.
METHODS: Cross-sectional, postal survey of 6,559 survivors diagnosed 2-15 years ago with primary, invasive PCa (ICD10-C61) identified via national, population based cancer registries in Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Questions included symptoms at diagnosis, primary treatments and physical symptoms (impotence/urinary incontinence/bowel problems/breast changes/loss of libido/hot flashes/fatigue) experienced 'ever' and at questionnaire completion ("current"). Symptom proportions were weighted by age, country and time since diagnosis. Bonferroni corrections were applied for multiple comparisons.
RESULTS: Adjusted response rate 54%; 75% reported at least one 'current' physical symptom ('ever':90%), with 29% reporting at least three. Prevalence varied by treatment; overall 57% reported current impotence; this was highest following radical prostatectomy (RP)76% followed by external beam radiotherapy with concurrent hormone therapy (HT); 64%. Urinary incontinence (overall 'current' 16%) was highest following RP ('current'28%, 'ever'70%). While 42% of brachytherapy patients reported no 'current' symptoms; 43% reported 'current' impotence and 8% 'current' incontinence. 'Current' hot flashes (41%), breast changes (18%) and fatigue (28%) were reported more often by patients on HT.
CONCLUSION: Symptoms following prostate cancer are common, often multiple, persist long-term and vary by treatment. They represent a significant health burden. An estimated 1.6% of men over 45 is a prostate cancer survivor currently experiencing an adverse physical symptom. Recognition and treatment of physical symptoms should be prioritised in patient follow-up. This information should facilitate men and clinicians when deciding about treatment as differences in survival between radical treatments is minimal.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Effect on renal function of tenofovir co-administered with either efavirenz or boosted lopinavir or boosted atazanavir: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Reduced re'nal function has been reported with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). It is not clear whether TDF co-administered with a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) leads to a greater decline in renal function than TDF co-administered with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI).Methods: We selected ail antiretroviral therapy-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with calibrated or corrected serum creatinine measurements starting antiretroviral therapy with TDF and either efavirenz (EFV) or the ritonavir-boosted PIs, lopinavir (LPV/r) or atazanavir (ATV/r). As a measure of renal function, we used the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We calculated the difference in eGFR over time between two therapies using a marginal model for repeated measures. In weighted analyses, observations were weighted by the product of their point of treatment and censoring weights to adjust for differences both in the sort of patients starting each therapy and in the sort of patients remaining on each therapy over time.Results: By March 2011, 940 patients with at least one creatinine measurement on a first therapy with either TDF and EFV (n=484), TDF and LPVlr (n=269) or TDF and ATV/r (n=187) had been followed for a median of 1. 7, 1.2 and 1.3 years, respectively. Table 1 shows the difference in average estimated GFR (eGFR) over time since starting cART for two marginal models. The first model was not adjusted for potential confounders; the second mode! used weights to adjust for confounders. The results suggest a greater decline in renal function during the first 6 months if TDF is used with a PI rather than with an NNRTI, but no further difference between these therapies after the first 6 months. TDF and ATV/r may lead to a greater decline in the first 6 months than TDF and LPVlr.Conclusions: TDF co-administered with a boosted PI leads to a greater de cline in renal function over the first 6 months of therapy than TDF co-administered with an NNRTI; this decline may be worse with ATV/r than with LPV/r.

Analyse des tendances et configurations de la criminalité au Québec à l’aide d’un indice de gravité de la criminalité

La mesure traditionnelle de la criminalité (taux pour 100 000 habitants) pose problème dans l'analyse des variations de la criminalité dans le temps ou l'espace. Le problème est dû au fait que le taux de criminalité est essentiellement déterminé par des infractions moins graves et très fréquentes. La présente étude a permis de tester l’utilité du nouvel outil développé par Statistique Canada qui procure un index de « gravité de la criminalité » dans lequel chaque crime est pondéré par son score de gravité (basé sur les décisions sentencielles moyennes au Canada de 2002 à 2007 pour chaque forme de crime). Appliquées aux statistiques officielles du Québec de 1977 à 2008, nos analyses montrent que l’indice de gravité s’avère une mesure utile pour dresser un portrait plus juste des tendances des crimes violents d’une année à l’autre. Plus exactement, l’indice de gravité montre que le taux de crimes violents est demeuré stable de 1977 à 1992 contrairement à l'image fournie par le taux traditionnel qui montre plutôt une montée fulgurante durant cette période. L’indice de gravité peut également être utile à l’égard des crimes violents pour comparer plus adéquatement les territoires entre eux afin d’établir ceux qui présentent une criminalité plus grave. Cependant, à l’égard de la criminalité globale et des crimes sans violence, l’indice de gravité n’est d’aucune utilité et présente la même lecture de la criminalité que la mesure traditionnelle. Cela s’explique par le fait que ce sont toujours les mêmes infractions (les vols, les méfaits et les introductions par effraction) qui contribuent majoritairement à chacune des deux mesures de la criminalité.

Validation des modèles statistiques tenant compte des variables dépendantes du temps en prévention primaire des maladies cérébrovasculaires

L’intérêt principal de cette recherche porte sur la validation d’une méthode statistique en pharmaco-épidémiologie. Plus précisément, nous allons comparer les résultats d’une étude précédente réalisée avec un devis cas-témoins niché dans la cohorte utilisé pour tenir compte de l’exposition moyenne au traitement : – aux résultats obtenus dans un devis cohorte, en utilisant la variable exposition variant dans le temps, sans faire d’ajustement pour le temps passé depuis l’exposition ; – aux résultats obtenus en utilisant l’exposition cumulative pondérée par le passé récent ; – aux résultats obtenus selon la méthode bayésienne. Les covariables seront estimées par l’approche classique ainsi qu’en utilisant l’approche non paramétrique bayésienne. Pour la deuxième le moyennage bayésien des modèles sera utilisé pour modéliser l’incertitude face au choix des modèles. La technique utilisée dans l’approche bayésienne a été proposée en 1997 mais selon notre connaissance elle n’a pas été utilisée avec une variable dépendante du temps. Afin de modéliser l’effet cumulatif de l’exposition variant dans le temps, dans l’approche classique la fonction assignant les poids selon le passé récent sera estimée en utilisant des splines de régression. Afin de pouvoir comparer les résultats avec une étude précédemment réalisée, une cohorte de personnes ayant un diagnostique d’hypertension sera construite en utilisant les bases des données de la RAMQ et de Med-Echo. Le modèle de Cox incluant deux variables qui varient dans le temps sera utilisé. Les variables qui varient dans le temps considérées dans ce mémoire sont iv la variable dépendante (premier évènement cérébrovasculaire) et une des variables indépendantes, notamment l’exposition

Rapport M/L de disques de galaxies issus de modèles CSPE et contrôle des contraintes mécaniques dans la conception de revêtements optiques

La thèse qui suit est organisée en deux volets: un premier volet portant sur les modèles de masse de galaxies et un second volet sur la conception de revêtements optiques et le contrôle de leurs propriétés mécaniques. Les modèles de masse présentés dans cette thèse ont été réalisés sur un sous-échantillon de dix galaxies de l'étude SINGS comprenant neuf galaxies normales et une galaxie naine. Ce travail visait à fixer le rapport masse-luminosité du disque à tout rayon en utilisant les résultats de modèles d'évolution galactique chimio-spectrophotométriques ajustés spécifiquement à chaque galaxie grâce à son profil de photométrie multi-bandes. Les résultats montrent que les disques stellaires tels que normalisés par les rapports masse-luminosité issus des modèles ont des masses cohérentes dans toutes les bandes étudiées de l'ultra-violet, du visible ainsi que du proche infrarouge (bandes FUV à IRAC2). Ces disques peuvent être considérés comme maximaux par rapport aux données cinématiques des galaxies étudiées. Ceci est dû au fait que le rapport M/L est plus élevé au centre que sur les bords. Les disques étant maximaux et physiquement justifiés, on ne peut dès lors ignorer les effets de composants tels que les bulbes ou les barres et les corrections nécessaires doivent être apportées aux profils de luminosité et de vitesses de rotation de la galaxie. Dans les travaux de la seconde partie, le logiciel en développement libre OpenFilters a été modifié afin de tenir compte des contraintes mécaniques dans la conception numérique de revêtements optiques. Les contraintes mécaniques dans les couches minces ont un effet délétère sur leurs performances optiques. Un revêtement destiné à rendre réflectives les lames d'un étalon Fabry-Perot utilisé en astronomie a été conçu et fabriqué afin d'évaluer les performances réelles de la méthode. Ce cas a été choisi à cause de la diminution de la finesse d'un étalon Fabry-Perot apporté par la courbure des lames sous l'effet des contraintes. Les résultats montrent que les mesures concordent avec les modèles numériques et qu'il est donc possible à l'aide de ce logiciel d'optimiser les revêtements pour leur comportement mécanique autant que pour leurs propriétés optiques.

Automatic mass segmentation in mammographic images

Aquesta tesi està emmarcada dins la detecció precoç de masses, un dels símptomes més clars del càncer de mama, en imatges mamogràfiques. Primerament, s'ha fet un anàlisi extensiu dels diferents mètodes de la literatura, concloent que aquests mètodes són dependents de diferent paràmetres: el tamany i la forma de la massa i la densitat de la mama. Així, l'objectiu de la tesi és analitzar, dissenyar i implementar un mètode de detecció robust i independent d'aquests tres paràmetres. Per a tal fi, s'ha construït un patró deformable de la massa a partir de l'anàlisi de masses reals i, a continuació, aquest model és buscat en les imatges seguint un esquema probabilístic, obtenint una sèrie de regions sospitoses. Fent servir l'anàlisi 2DPCA, s'ha construït un algorisme capaç de discernir aquestes regions són realment una massa o no. La densitat de la mama és un paràmetre que s'introdueix de forma natural dins l'algorisme.

Sentencia de constitucionalidad condicionada. Caso sobre despenalización del aborto en Colombia (Jurisprudencia)

Este artículo se trata de un buen ejemplo de una sentencia de constitucionalidad condicionada, donde la Corte Constitucional de Colombia hizo una gran labor jurídica de explicar, una a una, las razones de su cambio de precedente en cuanto al aborto. Pues, por primera vez en cien años, se da la posibilidad a las mujeres colombianas que decidan qué hacer frente a un embarazo. Este artículo pretende un análisis sobre el tipo de sentencia que produjo la Corte Constitucional, sobre valores o principios que entraron en juego, la clase de interpretación que se realizó, para finalmente hacer una reflexión crítica del caso.

A method of weighting indicators in building energy efficiency assessment

This paper identifies the indicators of energy efficiency assessment in residential building in China through a wide literature review. Indicators are derived from three main sources: 1) The existing building assessment methods; 2)The existing Chinese standards and technology codes in building energy efficiency; 3)Academia research. As a result, we proposed an indicator list by refining the indicators in the above sources. Identified indicators are weighted by the group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Group AHP method is implemented following key steps: Step 1: Experienced experts are selected to form a group; Step 2: A survey is implemented to collect the individual judgments on the importance of indicators in the group; Step 3: Members’ judgments are synthesized to the group judgments; Step 4: Indicators are weighted by AHP on the group judgments; Step 5: Investigation of consistency estimation shows that the consistency of the judgment matrix is accepted. We believe that the weighted indicators in this paper will provide important references to building energy efficiency assessment.

Comparação entre métodos de mensuração da importância de atributos em produtos e serviços

Pesquisas de opinião freqüentemente utilizam questionários com muitos itens para avaliar um serviço ou produto. Nestas pesquisas, cada respondente, além de avaliar os itens segundo seu grau de satisfação ou concordância, deve também atribuir um grau de importância ao item. Com estas duas informações disponíveis para cada item, é possível criar uma medida resumo, na forma de um escore total, composto pela avaliação dos itens ponderada pela sua importância. O objetivo desta pesquisa é comparar os métodos de obtenção de importância mais utilizados na literatura, sob vários aspectos. A comparação dos métodos mostra que, quando se utiliza escalas comparativas, há maior discriminação dos itens em relação às importâncias obtidas, mas os questionários que aplicam estes métodos são mais confusos e cansativos para o respondente. A escala de diferencial semântico, por outro lado, é a de melhor entendimento por parte dos entrevistados mas o resultado é pouco discriminatório.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

THE CASSAVA (MANIHOT-ESCULENTA, C) CV PIONEIRA .3. COOKING CHARACTERISTICS

The edible parts of cassava cultivar Pioneira roots after 12 and 24 months of cultivation were analysed for human consum. The yield was 63% when the roots were harvested at the right time (12 months), and lower (58%) for older roots, with 24 months. Total cyanide contents were 62,0 - 61,8 and 58,0 - 63,4 ppm, respectively. Cooking time was 13,5 min and 19,5 min, respectively, although the cooked mass quality was similar good. The edible part of the roots was processed in french fries or tholes, submited to two treatment: blanching for three minutes and boiling for ten minutes. Treated and in natura tholes were fried in vegetable oil at 190-degrees-C. The effect of freezing (-20-degrees-C for 60 days) on the cooking quality was also evaluated. The frozen storage reduced the total cyanid content in all treatment. The rate of cyanid decrease were 45%, 84% and 88% with frying, blanching and frying, and boiling and frying, respectively. Blanching followed by frying assured a safe cyanid level for human consum as well as a good acceptance in sensorial analysis. The influence of the age of the roots in cooking quality was a decrease in softness. Frozen storage softened the 24 month old roots and worsened the flavor of 12 month old root. For table purposes cassava roots should be processed in french fries and blanching, what would allow frozen storage of edible part.

On-line redox speciation analysis of antimony using L-proline immobilized on controlled pore glass and hydride generation inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry for detection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)