"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Manejando o lazer em areas de potencial ecoturistico : o caso do Colegio Agricola de Jundiai/RN

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Elevated blood lead levels in a riverside population in the Brazilian Amazon

Lead (Pb) is recognized as one of the most toxic metals. Sources of Pb exposure have been widely documented in North America, and the removal of Pb additives from gasoline was reflected in a dramatic lowering of blood Pb concentration. In Latin America, the removal of Pb from gasoline resulted in decreased exposure, but Pb levels in many areas remain high due to occupational and environmental sources of exposure. While many of the Pb sources have been identified (mining, industries, battery recycling, lead-based paint, ceramics), new ones occasionally crop up. Here we report on blood Pb (B-Pb) levels in remote riverside communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Blood Pb (B-Pb) levels were determined in 448 persons from 12 villages of the Lower Tapajos River Basin, Par, Brazil. Socio-demographic and dietary information, as well as occupational, residential and medical history was collected using an interview-administered questionnaire. B-Pb, measured by ICP-MS, showed elevated concentrations. Mean B-Pb was 13.1 mu g/dL +/- 8.5, median B-Pb was 11.2 mu g/dL and ranged from 0.59 to 48.3 mu g/dL. Men had higher B-Pb compared to women (median: 15.3 mu g/dL vs 7.9 mu g/dL respectively). B-Pb increased with age for women, while it decreased for men. For both genders, B-Pb decreased with education. There were significant differences between villages. Exploratory analyses, using linear partition models, showed that for men B-Pb was lower among those who were involved in cattle-raising, and higher among those who hunted, farmed and fished. The distribution profile of B-Pb directed us towards artisanal transformation of manioc to flour (farinha), which requires heating in a large metal pan, with stirring primarily done by young men. In the village with the highest B-Pb, analysis of Pb concentrations (dry weight) of manioc (prior to transformation) and farinha (following transformation) from 6 houses showed a tenfold increase in Pb concentration (mean: 0.017 +/- 0.016 to 0.19 +/- 0.10 mu g/g). This was confirmed in one of these villages where we sampled manioc paste Oust before roasting) and the roasted farinha (0.05 mu g/g vs 0.20 mu g/g). While there may be other sources (ammunition, sinkers for fishing nets), the high concentrations in farinha, a dietary staple, assuredly makes an important contribution. Further action needs to reduce Pb sources in this region. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marca institucional: a gestão da marca no contexto de uma IPSS

Relatório de Estágio apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Assessoria de Administração Orientadora: Doutora Isabel Ardions

Implementação das medidas de autoproteção em edifícios escolares

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no Trabalho

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Disseny d’un sistema d’entrenament per l’escalada

El projecte proposa un sistema d’entrenament per l’escalada, donant noves solucions adaptades a les noves tendències socials i de mercat. La millora en la comunicació usuari-producte i el seguiment del progrés en l’entrenament són les bases d’aquest projecte, entorn a les quals giren totes les solucions plantejades. Donat l’increment exponencial dels usuaris de sales d’entrenament i aficionats a l’escalada en els últims deu anys, on m’incloc, aquest projecte pretén donar una nova visió més real de l’entrenament, plantejant un producte versàtil i canviant, el qual s’adequa a les necessitats concretes de cada usuari, a l’hora que proposa diferents muntatges segons les possibilitats de l’espai d’instal·lació. L’interès personal per l’escalada i l’experiència durants els últims anys en sales d’entrenament m’han fet plantejar-me la funció de diferents elements dins d’aquests espais. L’ús de noves tecnologies i de sistemes de programació específics donen a l’usuari l’oportunitat d’endinsar-se en tota una experiència diferent d’entrenament, on pot dissenyar el seu propi pla, tenir un seguiment estadístic de la seva evolució i ser partícip d’una xarxa social de contactes, recomanacions, actualitzacions d’exercicis i plantejament de nous reptes. Naixent les sales d’entrenament a la dècada dels seixanta, avui dia són més de 40 les empreses dedicades a la producció i fabricació de material per elles. Només un 11% inverteixen en innovació i disseny i, tot i així, els resultats, en la majoria dels casos, no es desmarquen gaire d’allò que ja existeix. Amb aquest projecte es vol obrir un nou paradigma en el sector, donar la volta a allò existent i mostrar que fent un bon estudi de necessitats es poden plantejar solucions molt més reals, adaptables i personalitzables.

Holter implantable: reveal [The implantable loop recorder]

The implantable loop recorder developed by Medtronic (Reveal plus) is a small device inserted subcutaneously under local anesthesia in patients with syncope of unexplained origin. This device enables a single lead-ECG recording and has autonomy of two years. Memories are activated during episodes of bradycardia or tachycardia, either automatically or manually. Several studies have shown a high diagnostic rate reaching 50% and demonstrated its cost-effectiveness. There is also a significant reduction in syncopal episodes and a higher quality of life score in patients with syncope of unexplained origin.

POST-MIDDENISM: DEPOSITIONAL HISTORIES ON LATER BRONZE AGE SETTLEMENTS AT BROOM, BEDFORDSHIRE

This paper considers recent discussions of 'deliberate', 'formal', 'placed', 'special', 'structured', or 'token' deposits on later prehistoric settlements in Britain. It argues that while these concepts have certainly been very important in raising and forefronting the interpretative possibilities that depositional practices might offer, the idea of structured deposition has, at times, been adopted and applied somewhat simplistically. In such instances, exploration of the potential complexity and interpretative scope of depositional histories on later prehistoric settlements has been substantially curtailed. Current understandings of depositional practices involving pottery and burnt human bone are examined, and alternative interpretations offered, through a case study of the evidence recovered from a series of later Bronze Age settlements at Broom Quarry, Bedfordshire.

Meios de comunicação de massa e aparato policial: a ação da mídia em questões de segurança pública

O presente estudo foi concebido com o intuito de levantar e compilar informações, do ponto de vista conceitual, para a fundamentação da crítica quanto à influência e interferência dos meios de comunicação de massa nos assuntos de segurança pública, uma dupla temática real, mas não problematizada. Abordam-se os aspectos relativos ao histórico da instituição policial e sua estrutura permanente em contextos diferenciados, bem como a premência por um modelo que melhor se adapte ao sistema democrático, ao Estado de Direito. Enfocam-se questões referentes à visão dos meios de comunicação enquanto agentes econômicos e políticos, à liberdade de imprensa, às responsabilidades da mídia e à ética na comunicação. Constata-se, na pesquisa, que a conjunção dos temas 'meios de comunicação e aparato policial' carece de tratamento sistematizado, no meio literário, acadêmico. Busca-se, portanto, trazê-la à discussão, considerando o poder adquirido pela mídia nos últimos tempos e sua penetração na dinâmica social e no próprio aparato policial. Evidencia-se, ainda, a resultante dessa relação para o trato dos assuntos de segurança pública, relegados ao plano comercial da notícia e tratados sob a ótica de mercadoria com potencial gerador de altos índices de audiência.

Securitização de recebíveis da agroenergia: um estudo de caso baseado em títulos do agronegócio

Desde o final da década de 90, a securitização de ativos vem se firmando no mercado brasileiro como uma importante alternativa de captação de recursos. Essa inovação financeira permite às empresa o acesso direto ao mercado de capitais, para a venda de títulos lastreados em suas carteiras de recebíveis, eliminando a intermediação bancária e permitindo reduções no custo de capital, inclusive em comparação com títulos convencionais de dívida corporativa. Os títulos de securitização são em regra emitidos por um veículo de propósito específico (FIDC ou companhia securitizadora), com o objetivo de segregar os riscos do originador/tomador em relação aos créditos securitizados (lastro da emissão). Em 2004, a Lei 11.076 criou os novos títulos do agronegócio (CDA-WA, CDCA, LCA e CRA), inspirada na legislação da securitização imobiliária (SFI - Lei 9.514/97), buscando disponibilizar ao agronegócio uma nova fonte de recursos, via emissão de títulos no mercado de capitais. Desde então, um número crescente de operações estruturadas com esses papéis pôde ser observada, demonstrando sua funcionalidade e potencial. No entanto, o volume de captações públicas mais sofisticadas fundadas na emissão de cotas de FIDCs e de CRAs ainda se apresenta muito reduzida em relação à demanda do agronegócio por financiamento, sobretudo levando-se em conta a representatividade desse setor no Brasil. O setor sucro-energético é provavelmente o segmento do agronegócio que está em melhor posição para o desenvolvimento de operações de securitização, por apresentar características como: escala, padronização dos produtos, grau de consolidação dos grupos empresariais e perspectivas de crescimento, além do forte apelo ambiental. Os papéis associados a esse segmento possuem, dessa forma, um potencial singular para superar a resistência natural de investidores às aplicações financeiras na área agrícola. Este trabalho dedica-se a investigar como o conceito de securitização pode ser aplicado em operações ligadas ao agronegócio, particularmente ao setor sucro-alcooleiro. A partir de um estudo de caso, serão analisados aspectos operacionais de uma emissão pública de CRAs, ressaltando os mecanismos e procedimentos adotados para lidar com as particularidades dos títulos oriundos do agronegócio. O estudo mostra que a estruturação desse tipo de operação apresenta algumas características e desafios diferentes das operações fundadas em outros papéis, porém a priori administráveis a partir das técnicas tradicionais de securitização e da incorporação de mecanismos suplementares de gestão de riscos.

Degradação ambiental da bacia hidrográfica do rio Uberaba: uma abordagem metodológica

O presente estudo trata da avaliação da degradação ambiental da bacia do Rio Uberaba, situada no triângulo mineiro, com área de 241.904,30 ha, abrangendo os municípios de Uberaba, Veríssimo, Conceição das Alagoas e pequena porção de Planura. Neste estudo, foi produzido o mapa de degradação ambiental contendo quatro níveis: baixo, moderado, acentuado e severo. Os parâmetros utilizados nesta avaliação foram: vegetação, topografia, solo/geologia, potencial natural de erosão, mecanização, área agrícola, densidade populacional, pecuarização e área de conflito, aos quais foram atribuídos pesos. Para o nível de degradação “baixo”, foram definidos valores ≤ 13 pontos. Para o nível “moderado”, valores situados no intervalo de 14 a 16. Entre 17 e 19 pontos para o nível “acentuado”, e o nível “severo” com valores ≥ 20 pontos. Este estudo consolida as consequências do uso inadequado das terras, não respeitando a sua aptidão natural. As áreas com nível moderado de degradação representam 47%, áreas de nível acentuado (48%), e severo (4%) representam 52%, o que revela indício muito forte no avanço da destruição dos recursos naturais. As áreas classificadas com nível baixo representam apenas 1%, bastante inexpressiva, destacando o descaso na preservação dos recursos naturais.

Experiências de inverno no seridó potiguar

The knowledge known as "winter experiences" has been developed for centuries among country people in the Brazilian Northeast hinterlands. It consists in the systematic observation of the nature to forecast and protect people against the effects of droughts. This knowledge is transmitted orally through generations. These experiences are guided by the observation of the behavior of fauna, flora, stars, the weather in the holy days and other very specific aspects of the lives of country people. Almost all country people living in the rural area know at least one experience, but the Prophets of Rain are known as the communicators of winter prophecies formulated from the observation of the experiences. The country person is identified as a Prophet of Rain because of his close relationship with nature and his ability to forecast. No matter if the prophecies are always right, he possesses a vital social role, as his practices contribute to prevent, ease and encourage other people. The main aim of this work is to analyze the role of the winter experiences for the country people in the Seridó Potiguar. In this sense, we sought to understand to what extent this knowledge still orients the productive practices of farmers living in this region and identify which factors instigate the observation of winter experiences nowadays. 241 questionnaires were applied to farmers in the rural cities of Acari, Caicó, Parelhas and Lagoa Nova and interviews were conducted with 15 Prophets in the Seridó. The methodological framework of this work is the analysis of content proposed by Bardin (2010). In this study area, the experiences exert influence and relevance to the country people in the Seridó, because they consider them as a way to ease their anguishes face the possible drought in the region. The major role of the Prophet is to feed the hope of country people for better days, rather than contribute for the organization of the productive activities. Among the interviewed people, the forecast from the observation of winter experiences have greater credibility than the meteorological and disseminated by media. The Prophets of Rain base their prophecies on the set of natural elements present in the environment. Many factors stimulate the winter experiences by the Prophets nowadays, as cultural transmission, age, relationship with nature, level of education, faith, among others, but specially the productive activities (agriculture and cattle raising) and the droughts. The winter means abundance and happiness in this region and the experience is one of the ways that people find to minimize the anxiety and, according to their possibilities, to prepare for a year of droughts or for winter

Análise ambiental da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Marreco – Oeste do Estado do Paraná

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo agroambiental de uma microbacia hidrográfica, visando sua sustentabilidade

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA