Boosting the margin: A new explanation for the effectiveness of voting methods

One of the surprising recurring phenomena observed in experiments with boosting is that the test error of the generated classifier usually does not increase as its size becomes very large, and often is observed to decrease even after the training error reaches zero. In this paper, we show that this phenomenon is related to the distribution of margins of the training examples with respect to the generated voting classification rule, where the margin of an example is simply the difference between the number of correct votes and the maximum number of votes received by any incorrect label. We show that techniques used in the analysis of Vapnik's support vector classifiers and of neural networks with small weights can be applied to voting methods to relate the margin distribution to the test error. We also show theoretically and experimentally that boosting is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training examples. Finally, we compare our explanation to those based on the bias-variance decomposition.

Principles for use of ball projection machines in elite and developmental sport programmes

Use of ball projection machines in the acquisition of interceptive skill has recently been questioned. The use of projection machines in developmental and elite fast ball sports programmes is not a trivial issue, since they play a crucial role in reducing injury incidence in players and coaches. A compelling challenge for sports science is to provide theoretical principles to guide how and when projection machines might be used for acquisition of ball skills and preparation for competition in developmental and elite sport performance programmes. Here, we propose how principles from an ecological dynamics theoretical framework could be adopted by sports scientists, pedagogues and coaches to underpin the design of interventions, practice and training tasks, including the use of hybrid video-projection technologies. The assessment of representative learning design during practice may provide ways to optimize developmental programmes in fast ball sports and inform the principled use of ball projection machines.

A voting mechanism for named entity translation in English-Chinese question answering

In this paper, we describe a voting mechanism for accurate named entity (NE) translation in English–Chinese question answering (QA). This mechanism involves translations from three different sources: machine translation,online encyclopaedia, and web documents. The translation with the highest number of votes is selected. We evaluated this approach using test collection, topics and assessment results from the NTCIR-8 evaluation forum. This mechanism achieved 95% accuracy in NEs translation and 0.3756 MAP in English–Chinese cross-lingual information retrieval of QA.

Disclosure of proxy voting information by Australian managed investment schemes

The US Securities and Exchange Comission requires registered management investment companies to disclose how they vote proxies relating to portfolio securities they hold. The primary purpose of this rule is to enable fund investors to monitor the role of institutional shareholders in the corporate governance practices of public companies. In Australia, despite reform proposals, there are no regulations requiring institutional investors to report proxy voting procedures and practises. There is little evidence of voluntary disclosure of proxy voting by Australian managed investment schemes in equities, indicating that there are costs involved in such disclosure.

Interactive conference voting

We describe and analyze opinion polling results from interactive voting procedures undertaken before and after presentations during the Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials Conference (OMERACT II) in Ottawa, Canada, June 30-July 2, 1994. The scoring procedure was a matched voting design; when a participant used the same keypad at the beginning and end of voting, change within a participant could be estimated. Participants, experienced in the rheumatic diseases included clinicians, researchers, methodologists, regulators, and representatives of the pharmaceutical industry. Patients under consideration were those with any rheumatic diseases. Questions were constructed to evaluate the change in voting behavior expected from the content of the presentation. Statistically significant and substantively important changes were evident in most questions.

Engineering based problem solving in the middle school : design and construction with simple machines

Incorporating engineering concepts into middle school curriculum is seen as an effective way to improve students’ problem-solving skills. A selection of findings is reported from a science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)-based unit in which students in the second year (grade 8) of a three-year longitudinal study explored engineering concepts and principles pertaining to the functioning of simple machines. The culminating activity, the focus of this paper, required the students to design, construct, test, and evaluate a trebuchet catapult. We consider findings from one of the schools, a co-educational school, where we traced the design process developments of four student groups from two classes. The students’ descriptions and explanations of the simple machines used in their catapult design are examined, together with how they rated various aspects of their engineering designs. Included in the findings are students’ understanding of how their simple machines were simulated by the resources supplied and how the machines interacted in forming a complex machine. An ability to link physical materials with abstract concepts and an awareness of design constraints on their constructions were apparent, although a desire to create a ‘‘perfect’’ catapult despite limitations in the physical materials rather than a prototype for testing concepts was evident. Feedback from teacher interviews added further insights into the students’ developments as well as the teachers’ professional learning. An evolving framework for introducing engineering education in the pre-secondary years is proposed.

Gambling revenues as a public administration issue : electronic gaming machines in Victoria

Gambling activities and the revenues derived have been seen as a way to increase economic development in deprived areas. There are also, however, concerns about the effects of gambling in general and electronic gaming machines (EGMs) in particular, on the resources available to the localities in which they are situated. This paper focuses on the factors that determine the extent and spending of community benefit-related EGM-generated resources within Victoria, Australia, focusing in particular on the relationships between EGM activity and socio-economic and social capital indicators, and how this relates to the community benefit resources generated by gaming.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Bounded rationality and voting decisions over 160 years : voter behavior and increasing complexity in decision-making

Using a quasi-natural voting experiment encompassing a 160-year period (1848–2009) in Switzerland, we investigate whether a higher level of complexity leads to increased reliance on trusted parliamentary representatives. We find that when more referenda are held on the same day, constituents are more likely to refer to parliamentary recommendations when making their decisions. This finding holds true even when we narrow our focus to referenda with a relatively lower voter turnout on days on which more than one referendum is held. We also demonstrate that when constituents face a higher level of complexity, they follow the parliamentary recommendations rather than those of interest groups. "Viewed as a geometric figure, the ant’s path is irregular, complex, hard to describe. But its complexity is really a complexity in the surface of the beach, not a complexity in the ant." ([1] p. 51)

Dying feet in ICU : why might extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines cause necrotic feet?

Background Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is used for severe lung and/or heart failure in intensive care units (ICU). The Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) has one of the largest ECMO units in Australia. Its use rapidly increased during the H1N1 (“swine flu”) pandemic and an increase in pedal complications resulted. The relationship between ECMO and pedal complications has been described, particularly in children, though no strong data exists. This paper presents a case series of foot complications in patients having received ECMO treatment. Methods We present nine cases of severe foot complications resulting from patients receiving ECMO treatment at TPCH in 2009–2012. Results Case ages ranged from 16 - 58 years and three were male. Six cases had an unremarkable medical history prior to H1N1 or H1N2 infection, one had Cardiomyopathy, one had received a lung transplant, and one had multi-organ failure post-sepsis. Common medications prescribed included vasopressors, antibiotics, and sedatives. All cases showed signs of markedly impaired peripheral perfusion whilst on ECMO and seven developed increasing areas of foot necrosis. Outcomes include two bilateral below knee amputations, two multiple digital amputations, one Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy Syndrome, three pressure injuries, and three deaths. Conclusion Necrosis of the feet appears to occur more readily in younger people requiring ECMO treatment than others in ICU. The authors are conducting further studies to investigate associations between particular infections, medical history, medications, or machine techniques and severe foot complications. Some of these early results will also be presented at this conference.

Performance-driven live migration of multiple virtual machines in datacenters

Live migration of multiple Virtual Machines (VMs) has become an indispensible management activity in datacenters for application performance, load balancing, server consolidation. While state-of-the-art live VM migration strategies focus on the improvement of the migration performance of a single VM, little attention has been given to the case of multiple VMs migration. Moreover, existing works on live VM migration ignore the inter-VM dependencies, and underlying network topology and its bandwidth. Different sequences of migration and different allocations of bandwidth result in different total migration times and total migration downtimes. This paper concentrates on developing a multiple VMs migration scheduling algorithm such that the performance of migration is maximized. We evaluate our proposed algorithm through simulation. The simulation results show that our proposed algorithm can migrate multiple VMs on any datacenter with minimum total migration time and total migration downtime.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.

A random key genetic algorithm for live migration of multiple virtual machines in data centers

Live migration of multiple Virtual Machines (VMs) has become an integral management activity in data centers for power saving, load balancing and system maintenance. While state-of-the-art live migration techniques focus on the improvement of migration performance of an independent single VM, only a little has been investigated to the case of live migration of multiple interacting VMs. Live migration is mostly influenced by the network bandwidth and arbitrarily migrating a VM which has data inter-dependencies with other VMs may increase the bandwidth consumption and adversely affect the performances of subsequent migrations. In this paper, we propose a Random Key Genetic Algorithm (RKGA) that efficiently schedules the migration of a given set of VMs accounting both inter-VM dependency and data center communication network. The experimental results show that the RKGA can schedule the migration of multiple VMs with significantly shorter total migration time and total downtime compared to a heuristic algorithm.