The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Model round-trip engineering

In the quest for shorter time-to-market, higher quality and reduced cost, model-driven software development has emerged as a promising approach to software engineering. The central idea is to promote models to first-class citizens in the development process. Starting from a set of very abstract models in the early stage of the development, they are refined into more concrete models and finally, as a last step, into code. As early phases of development focus on different concepts compared to later stages, various modelling languages are employed to most accurately capture the concepts and relations under discussion. In light of this refinement process, translating between modelling languages becomes a time-consuming and error-prone necessity. This is remedied by model transformations providing support for reusing and automating recurring translation efforts. These transformations typically can only be used to translate a source model into a target model, but not vice versa. This poses a problem if the target model is subject to change. In this case the models get out of sync and therefore do not constitute a coherent description of the software system anymore, leading to erroneous results in later stages. This is a serious threat to the promised benefits of quality, cost-saving, and time-to-market. Therefore, providing a means to restore synchronisation after changes to models is crucial if the model-driven vision is to be realised. This process of reflecting changes made to a target model back to the source model is commonly known as Round-Trip Engineering (RTE). While there are a number of approaches to this problem, they impose restrictions on the nature of the model transformation. Typically, in order for a transformation to be reversed, for every change to the target model there must be exactly one change to the source model. While this makes synchronisation relatively “easy”, it is ill-suited for many practically relevant transformations as they do not have this one-to-one character. To overcome these issues and to provide a more general approach to RTE, this thesis puts forward an approach in two stages. First, a formal understanding of model synchronisation on the basis of non-injective transformations (where a number of different source models can correspond to the same target model) is established. Second, detailed techniques are devised that allow the implementation of this understanding of synchronisation. A formal underpinning for these techniques is drawn from abductive logic reasoning, which allows the inference of explanations from an observation in the context of a background theory. As non-injective transformations are the subject of this research, there might be a number of changes to the source model that all equally reflect a certain target model change. To help guide the procedure in finding “good” source changes, model metrics and heuristics are investigated. Combining abductive reasoning with best-first search and a “suitable” heuristic enables efficient computation of a number of “good” source changes. With this procedure Round-Trip Engineering of non-injective transformations can be supported.

The Machine Vision Toolbox : A MATLAB Toolbox for vision and vision-based control

The article described an open-source toolbox for machine vision called Machine Vision Toolbox (MVT). MVT includes more than 60 functions including image file reading and writing, acquisition, display, filtering, blob, point and line feature extraction, mathematical morphology, homographies, visual Jacobians, camera calibration, and color space conversion. MVT can be used for research into machine vision but is also versatile enough to be usable for real-time work and even control. MVT, combined with MATLAB and a model workstation computer, is a useful and convenient environment for the investigation of machine vision algorithms. The article illustrated the use of a subset of toolbox functions for some typical problems and described MVT operations including the simulation of a complete image-based visual servo system.

A ‘cost-per-wear’ model based on contact lens replacement frequency

Purpose: The aim was to construct and advise on the use of a cost-per-wear model based on contact lens replacement frequency, to form an equitable basis for cost comparison. ---------- Methods: The annual cost of professional fees, contact lenses and solutions when wearing daily, two-weekly and monthly replacement contact lenses is determined in the context of the Australian market for spherical, toric and multifocal prescription types. This annual cost is divided by the number of times lenses are worn per year, resulting in a ‘cost-per-wear’. The model is presented graphically as the cost-per-wear versus the number of times lenses are worn each week for daily replacement and reusable (two-weekly and monthly replacement) lenses.---------- Results: The cost-per-wear for two-weekly and monthly replacement spherical lenses is almost identical but decreases with increasing frequency of wear. The cost-per-wear of daily replacement spherical lenses is lower than for reusable spherical lenses, when worn from one to four days per week but higher when worn six or seven days per week. The point at which the cost-per-wear is virtually the same for all three spherical lens replacement frequencies (approximately AUD$3.00) is five days of lens wear per week. A similar but upwardly displaced (higher cost) pattern is observed for toric lenses, with the cross-over point occurring between three and four days of wear per week (AUD$4.80). Multifocal lenses have the highest price, with cross-over points for daily versus two-weekly replacement lenses at between four and five days of wear per week (AUD$5.00) and for daily versus monthly replacement lenses at three days per week (AUD$5.50).---------- Conclusions: This cost-per-wear model can be used to assist practitioners and patients in making an informed decision in relation to the cost of contact lens wear as one of many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding on the most suitable lens replacement modality.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Model-order selection in Zernike polynomial expansion of corneal surfaces using the efficient detection criterion

Corneal-height data are typically measured with videokeratoscopes and modeled using a set of orthogonal Zernike polynomials. We address the estimation of the number of Zernike polynomials, which is formalized as a model-order selection problem in linear regression. Classical information-theoretic criteria tend to overestimate the corneal surface due to the weakness of their penalty functions, while bootstrap-based techniques tend to underestimate the surface or require extensive processing. In this paper, we propose to use the efficient detection criterion (EDC), which has the same general form of information-theoretic-based criteria, as an alternative to estimating the optimal number of Zernike polynomials. We first show, via simulations, that the EDC outperforms a large number of information-theoretic criteria and resampling-based techniques. We then illustrate that using the EDC for real corneas results in models that are in closer agreement with clinical expectations and provides means for distinguishing normal corneal surfaces from astigmatic and keratoconic surfaces.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Detection versus false alarm characterisation of a vision-based airborne dim-target collision detection system

This paper presents a preliminary flight test based detection range versus false alarm performance characterisation of a morphological-hidden Markov model filtering approach to vision-based airborne dim-target collision detection. On the basis of compelling in-flight collision scenario data, we calculate system operating characteristic (SOC) curves that concisely illustrate the detection range versus false alarm rate performance design trade-offs. These preliminary SOC curves provide a more complete dim-target detection performance description than previous studies (due to the experimental difficulties involved, previous studies have been limited to very short flight data sample sets and hence have not been able to quantify false alarm behaviour). The preliminary investigation here is based on data collected from 4 controlled collision encounters and supporting non-target flight data. This study suggests head-on detection ranges of approximately 2.22 km under blue sky background conditions (1.26 km in cluttered background conditions), whilst experiencing false alarms at a rate less than 1.7 false alarms/hour (ie. less than once every 36 minutes). Further data collection is currently in progress.

Fat and thin adaptive HMM filters for vision based detection of moving targets

Computer vision is an attractive solution for uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) collision avoidance, due to the low weight, size and power requirements of hardware. A two-stage paradigm has emerged in the literature for detection and tracking of dim targets in images, comprising of spatial preprocessing, followed by temporal filtering. In this paper, we investigate a hidden Markov model (HMM) based temporal filtering approach. Specifically, we propose an adaptive HMM filter, in which the variance of model parameters is refined as the quality of the target estimate improves. Filters with high variance (fat filters) are used for target acquisition, and filters with low variance (thin filters) are used for target tracking. The adaptive filter is tested in simulation and with real data (video of a collision-course aircraft). Our test results demonstrate that our adaptive filtering approach has improved tracking performance, and provides an estimate of target heading not present in previous HMM filtering approaches.

The role of cognitive and visual abilities as predictors in the Multifactorial Model of Driving Safety

Objective The current study evaluated part of the Multifactorial Model of Driving Safety to elucidate the relative importance of cognitive function and a limited range of standard measures of visual function in relation to the Capacity to Drive Safely. Capacity to Drive Safely was operationalized using three validated screening measures for older drivers. These included an adaptation of the well validated Useful Field of View (UFOV) and two newer measures, namely a Hazard Perception Test (HPT), and a Hazard Change Detection Task (HCDT). Method Community dwelling drivers (n = 297) aged 65–96 were assessed using a battery of measures of cognitive and visual function. Results Factor analysis of these predictor variables yielded factors including Executive/Speed, Vision (measured by visual acuity and contrast sensitivity), Spatial, Visual Closure, and Working Memory. Cognitive and Vision factors explained 83–95% of age-related variance in the Capacity to Drive Safely. Spatial and Working Memory were associated with UFOV, HPT and HCDT, Executive/Speed was associated with UFOV and HCDT and Vision was associated with HPT. Conclusion The Capacity to Drive Safely declines with chronological age, and this decline is associated with age-related declines in several higher order cognitive abilities involving manipulation and storage of visuospatial information under speeded conditions. There are also age-independent effects of cognitive function and vision that determine driving safety.

A suspicious behaviour detection using a context space model for smart surveillance systems

Video surveillance systems using Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras, is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of security technologies. However, the existing video surveillance systems are still not at a stage where they can be used for crime prevention. The systems rely heavily on human observers and are therefore limited by factors such as fatigue and monitoring capabilities over long periods of time. This work attempts to address these problems by proposing an automatic suspicious behaviour detection which utilises contextual information. The utilisation of contextual information is done via three main components: a context space model, a data stream clustering algorithm, and an inference algorithm. The utilisation of contextual information is still limited in the domain of suspicious behaviour detection. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to correctly understand human behaviour without considering the context where it is observed. This work presents experiments using video feeds taken from CAVIAR dataset and a camera mounted on one of the buildings Z-Block) at the Queensland University of Technology, Australia. From these experiments, it is shown that by exploiting contextual information, the proposed system is able to make more accurate detections, especially of those behaviours which are only suspicious in some contexts while being normal in the others. Moreover, this information gives critical feedback to the system designers to refine the system.

A conceptual model to link deep customer insights to both growth opportunities and organisational strategy in SME’s as part of a design led transformation journey

Although Design Led Innovation activities aim to raise the value of design within the business, knowledge about which tools are available to support companies and how to apply them to make the connection between design for new product development and design as a strategic driver of growth is needed. This paper presents a conceptual method to supplement existing process and tools to assist companies to grow through design. The model extends the authors’ previous work to explore how through storytelling, customer observation can be captured and translated into new meaning, then creating new design propositions shaped into product needs, which can drive internal business activities, brand and the strategic vision. The paper contributes to a gap in the theoretical frameworks and literature by highlighting the need to align and scale design processes which match the needs of SME’s as they transition along a trajectory to become design led businesses.

Statistical eye model for normal eyes

Purpose. To create a binocular statistical eye model based on previously measured ocular biometric data. Methods. Thirty-nine parameters were determined for a group of 127 healthy subjects (37 male, 90 female; 96.8% Caucasian) with an average age of 39.9 ± 12.2 years and spherical equivalent refraction of −0.98 ± 1.77 D. These parameters described the biometry of both eyes and the subjects' age. Missing parameters were complemented by data from a previously published study. After confirmation of the Gaussian shape of their distributions, these parameters were used to calculate their mean and covariance matrices. These matrices were then used to calculate a multivariate Gaussian distribution. From this, an amount of random biometric data could be generated, which were then randomly selected to create a realistic population of random eyes. Results. All parameters had Gaussian distributions, with the exception of the parameters that describe total refraction (i.e., three parameters per eye). After these non-Gaussian parameters were omitted from the model, the generated data were found to be statistically indistinguishable from the original data for the remaining 33 parameters (TOST [two one-sided t tests]; P < 0.01). Parameters derived from the generated data were also significantly indistinguishable from those calculated with the original data (P > 0.05). The only exception to this was the lens refractive index, for which the generated data had a significantly larger SD. Conclusions. A statistical eye model can describe the biometric variations found in a population and is a useful addition to the classic eye models.