STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

International journalism and democracy : civic engagement models from around the world

"International Journalism and Democracy" explores a new form of journalism that has been dubbed ‘deliberative journalism’. As the name suggests, these forms of journalism support deliberation — the processes in which citizens recognize and discuss the issues that affect their communities, appraise the potential responses to those issues, and make decisions about whether and how to take action. Authors from across the globe identify the types of journalism that assist deliberative politics in different cultural and political contexts. Case studies from 15 nations spotlight different approaches to deliberative journalism, including strategies that have been sometimes been labeled as public or civic journalism, peace journalism, development journalism, citizen journalism, the street press, community journalism, social entrepreneurism, or other names. Countries that are studied in-depth include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Nigeria, Brazil, Colombia and Puerto Rico. Each of the approaches that are described offers a distinctive potential to support deliberative democracy. However, the book does not present any of these models or case studies as examples of categorical success. Instead, it explores different elements of the nature, strengths, limitations and challenges of each approach, as well as issues affecting their longer-term sustainability and effectiveness. The book also describes the underlying principles of deliberation, the media’s potential role in deliberation from a theoretical and practical perspective, and ongoing issues for deliberative media practitioners.

Australian universities and the challenges of internationalization

In a little over twenty years, Australia has succeeded in developing an industry in international education worth $15.5 billion Australian dollars. Most universities engaged in this industry see themselves as integrating an international, intercultural or global dimension into teaching, research and service. We examine the internationalization challenges faced by Australia's universities, and explore how curriculum and mobility are understood by academics interviewed at two case study universities.

Evaluation of an inactivated Ross River virus vaccine in active and passive mouse immunization models and establishment of a correlate of protection

Ross River Virus has caused reported outbreaks of epidemic polyarthritis, a chronic debilitating disease associated with significant long-term morbidity in Australia and the Pacific region since the 1920s. To address this public health concern, a formalin- and UV-inactivated whole virus vaccine grown in animal protein-free cell culture was developed and tested in preclinical studies to evaluate immunogenicity and efficacy in animal models. After active immunizations, the vaccine dose-dependently induced antibodies and protected adult mice from viremia and interferon α/β receptor knock-out (IFN-α/βR(-/-)) mice from death and disease. In passive transfer studies, administration of human vaccinee sera followed by RRV challenge protected adult mice from viremia and young mice from development of arthritic signs similar to human RRV-induced disease. Based on the good correlation between antibody titers in human sera and protection of animals, a correlate of protection was defined. This is of particular importance for the evaluation of the vaccine because of the comparatively low annual incidence of RRV disease, which renders a classical efficacy trial impractical. Antibody-dependent enhancement of infection, did not occur in mice even at low to undetectable concentrations of vaccine-induced antibodies. Also, RRV vaccine-induced antibodies were partially cross-protective against infection with a related alphavirus, Chikungunya virus, and did not enhance infection. Based on these findings, the inactivated RRV vaccine is expected to be efficacious and protect humans from RRV disease

How can partnerships between the universities and schools exploit new opportunities for pedagogies at the intersection of the arts/design and the sciences?

Driven by information accessibility-on-demand provided by the internet, education modes are changing from a teacher-led approach focused on content delivery and assessible outcomes, to a learner-based approach encouraging self-directed, peer-tutored, and cooperative learning. New pedagogies are required to extend learning beyond the classroom and traditional subject areas such as contemporary arts, in alignment with the cross disciplinary priorities of the Australian Curriculum and values of the International Baccalaureate Organisation. This research explores how partnerships with universities and cultural organisations are implicated in the generation of these new forms of pedagogy and contribute to the field of educational research within the context of Education Queensland’s Framework For Gifted Education. In particular, this paper explores a new pedagogical framework for highly capable year five to nine Queensland state school students at the intersection of arts, design and the sciences, which has arisen from an explicit secondary/ tertiary partnership between the Queensland University of Technology Creative Industries Faculty and Precincts and the Queensland Academies Young Scholars Program. The Young Scholars Program offers experiences in the International Baccalaureate and Australian Curriculum contexts to enhance outcomes via global understanding, unique industry partnerships and 21st century pedagogical innovation based not on 'content' but tacit/experiential learning concepts including immersive, creative, intellectual and social strategies. These strategies for highly capable students are centred around authentic opportunities, primary resources, transdisciplinary learning and relationships with likeminded peers including tertiary arts, design and STEM educators and students, professionals and researchers. The presentation details case studies which are hands-on real time workshops involving inquiry based challenges in the arts, design and sciences, mathematics, history, creative writing and other disciplines, with content drawn from collections from public institutions, academic research and tertiary pedagogy. Both programs implicate student collaboration and creative production as methodology/data capture for ongoing action research, in alignment with the Framework For Gifted Education’s emphasis on evidence-based practices. They also challenge gifted students “to continue their development through curricular activities that require depth of study, complexity of thinking, fast pace of learning, high-level skills development and/or creative and critical thinking (e.g. through independent investigations, tiered tasks, diverse real-world applications, mentors)”(Education Queensland, 2011:3). This presentation highlights the strengths of the ongoing collaboration between QUT Creative industries Faculty and Queensland Academies, which not only provides successful extra curricular activities for gifted students towards a place in the International Baccalaureate Program, but also provides mentoring opportunities for tertiary students in their field of endeavor to assist with their own learning, and unique research opportunities for the Faculty as it focuses on excellence in arts, design and creative education and research. Education Queensland.(2011). Framework For Gifted Education Revised Edition 2011 (accessed Nov 19 2011)

Connections not boundaries: Future learning and physical spaces

In the developed world, we feel the effects of "digital disruption" in our experiences of the spaces of retail, hospitality, entertainment, finance, arts and culture, and even healthcare. This disruption can take many forms: augmentation of physical experience with a digital complement such as the use of a bespoke mobile application to navigate an art museum, ordering food on digital tablets in a restaurant, recording our health data to share with a doctor. We also rate and review our experiences of a wide range of services and share these opinions with diverse others via the social web.

Memoirs of an immigrant and his ashtray

The memoirs were written in 1999. Childhood memories in a small town in Lower Austria. Passion for playing football (soccer). Recollections of daily life with rituals of coffeehouse visits and family dinners in the countryside. First experiences of antisemitism in the mid 1930s. Rising Nazi movement and illegal meetings in the local community. Annexation of Austria in 1938. First encounters with anti-Jewish regulations and discrimination by neighbors and acquaintances. Walter experienced severe difficulties at school and was frequently insulted and beaten up. Decision to leave school. The family was forced to leave Eggenburg soon thereafter, and the town declared itself "Judenfrei" (free of Jews). Move to Vienna, where they stayed with relatives. Walter, who had been brought up as a Catholic, suddenly saw himself confronted with orthodox Jewish people of different customs. Increasing restrictions for Jews. Walter was enrolled in a program at the Vienna Jewish community to learn carpentry. Recollections of the terror of Kristallnacht. Walter and his brother Ludwig were signed up for a children transport to England by the Quaker organization and left Vienna in December 1938. Difficult feeling to depart from their parents. Arrival in Harwige. They were taken to a camp in Lowestoft. Cultural differences. Walter and his brother were sent to a training farm in Parbold. Simple living conditions and difficult circumstances. Farm work and school lessons. Outbreak of the war. Scarce news of their parents, who tried to leave for Argentina. Walter's older brother Ludwig was sent to an internment camp in Adelaide, Australia. After two years he volunteered in the Pioneer Corps and returned to England. In 1941 their parents finally managed to emigrate to Argentina. Walter decided to join them, and in 1943 he left for Buenos Aires. During the passage on the Atlantic the ship was sunk by a German submarine. Rescue by the US Army. Continuation of his trip via New York.

How can evaluative thinking and practice inform performance models for organizations and personnel

In the world today there are many ways in which we measure, count and determine whether something is worth the effort or not. In Australia and many other countries, new government legislation is requiring government-funded entities to become more transparent in their practice and to develop a more cohesive narrative about the worth, or impact, for the betterment of society. This places the executives of such entities in a position of needing evaluative thinking and practice to guide how they may build the narrative that documents and demonstrates this type of impact. In thinking about where to start, executives, project and program managers may consider this workshop as a professional development opportunity to explore both the intended and unintended consequences of performance models as tools of evaluation. This workshop will offer participants an opportunity to unpack the place of performance models as an evaluative tool through the following: · What shape does an ethical, sound and valid performance measure for an organization or personnel take? · What role does cultural specificity play in the design and development of a performance model for an organization or for personnel? · How are stakeholders able to identify risk during the design and development of such models? · When and where will dissemination strategies be required? · And so what? How can you determine that your performance model implementation has made a difference now or in the future?

Rarefied gas dynamics: fundamentals, simulations and micro flows

Late Holocene sea-level fall and turn-off of reef flat carbonate production: Rethinking bucket fill and coral reef growth models

Relative sea-level rise has been a major factor driving the evolution of reef systems during the Holocene. Most models of reef evolution suggest that reefs preferentially grow vertically during rising sea level then laterally from windward to leeward, once the reef flat reaches sea level. Continuous lagoonal sedimentation ("bucket fill") and sand apron progradation eventually lead to reef systems with totally filled lagoons. Lagoonal infilling of One Tree Reef (southern Great Barrier Reef) through sand apron accretion was examined in the context of late Holocene relative sea-level change. This analysis was conducted using sedimentological and digital terrain data supported by 50 radiocarbon ages from fossil microatolls, buried patch reefs, foraminifera and shells in sediment cores, and recalibrated previously published radiocarbon ages. This data set challenges the conceptual model of geologically continuous sediment infill during the Holocene through sand apron accretion. Rapid sand apron accretion occurred between 6000 and 3000 calibrated yr before present B.P. (cal. yr B.P.); followed by only small amounts of sedimentation between 3000 cal. yr B.P. and present, with no significant sand apron accretion in the past 2 k.y. This hiatus in sediment infill coincides with a sea-level fall of similar to 1-1.3 m during the late Holocene (ca. 2000 cal. yr B.P.), which would have caused the turn-off of highly productive live coral growth on the reef flats currently dominated by less productive rubble and algal flats, resulting in a reduced sediment input to back-reef environments and the cessation in sand apron accretion. Given that relative sea-level variations of similar to 1 m were common throughout the Holocene, we suggest that this mode of sand apron development and carbonate production is applicable to most reef systems.

International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Budgeting and resource allocation in universities, a public choice approach

The calls urging colleges and universities to improve their productivity are coming thick and fast in Brazil. Many studies are suggesting evaluation systems and external criteria to control universities production in qualitative terms. Since universities and colleges are not profit-oriented organizations (considering just the fair and serious researching and teaching organizations, of course) the traditional microeconomics and administrative variables used to measure efficiency do not have any direct function. In this sense, It could be created a as if market control system to evaluate universities and colleges production. The budget and the allocation resources mechanism inside it can be used as an incentive instrument to improve quality and productivity. It will be the main issue of this paper.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Handbook of courses open to women in British, continental, and Canadian universities /

Mode of access: Internet.

The colleges and the courts : recent judicial decisions regarding higher education in the United States /

Vol.[3] published by Columbia University Press.