How Is Credit Risk Estimated? Discussion and Evidence based on Cross-Industry Sample Utilizing the KMV Model

The purpose of this thesis is to focus on credit risk estimation. Different credit risk estimation methods and characteristics of credit risk are discussed. The study is twofold, including an interview of a credit risk specialist and a quantitative section. Quantitative section applies the KMV model to estimate credit risk of 12 sample companies from three different industries: automobile, banking and financial sector and technology. Timeframe of the estimation is one year. On the basis of the KMV model and the interview, implications for analysis of credit risk are discussed. The KMV model yields consistent results with the existing credit ratings. However, banking and financial sector requires calibration of the model due to high leverage of the industry. Credit risk is considerably driven by leverage, value and volatility of assets. Credit risk models produce useful information on credit worthiness of a business. Yet, quantitative models often require qualitative support in the decision-making situation.

An analysis of the determinants of cross-border real estate development flows

This paper investigates the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in western and central and eastern Europe (CEE). Drawing upon existing literature on the integration of international real estate markets, we make some inferences on expected patterns of cross-border real estate development from this literature review. The paper draws upon a transactions database in order to assess the penetration of national markets by international real estate developers. The determinants of cross-border transaction flows are modeled as a function the range of economic and real estate variables. Whilst western European markets tend to be dominated by local developers, much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of central and eastern Europe. Empirical modelling based on gravity model specifications reveal the importance of size of the economies, distance between countries, extent of globalization and EU membership as significant determinants of cross-border real estate development flow.

The effects of cross-border and cross-industry mergers and acquisitions on home-region and global multinational enterprises

We examine the effects of international and product diversification through mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the firm's risk–return profile. We identify the rewards from different types of M&As and investigate whether becoming a global firm is a value-enhancing strategy. Drawing on the theoretical work of Vachani (Journal of International Business Studies, 22 (1991), pp. 307−222) and on Rugman and Verbeke's (Journal of International Business Studies, 35 (2004), pp. 3−18) metrics, we classify firms according to their degree of international and product diversification. To account for the endogeneity of M&As, we develop a panel vector autoregression. We find that global and host-region multinational enterprises benefit from cross-border M&As that reinforce their geographical footprint. Cross-industry M&As enhance the risk–return profile of home-region firms. This effect depends on the degree of product diversification. Hence there is no value-enhancing M&A strategy for home-region and bi-regional firms to become ‘truly global’.

Equipping Simulation Model (BIOSIM)’s Actors With Multi-agent Intelligence on Cross platforms

Thesis is to Introduce an Intelligent cross platform architecture with Multi-agent system in order to equip the simulation Models with agents, having intelligent behavior, reactive and pro-active nature and rational in decision making.

Insolvenza transfrontaliera e giurisdizione: l'esperienza del regolamento (CE) n. 1346 del 2000

L’elaborato è strutturato in quattro parti: la prima è dedicata all’inquadramento del background normativo. L’autrice affronta, con un approccio ricostruttivo, i precedenti alla redazione del regolamento e le difficoltà incontrate a causa delle resistenze degli Stati membri. Si sofferma altresì sulle norme UNCITRAL, anch’esse oggetto nel recente periodo, di numerose implementazioni. La seconda parte fotografa il ruolo della Corte di Giustizia nell’interpretazione del regolamento n. 1346/2000 ed individua i concetti fondamentali del regolamento: l’universalità attenuata, il campo di applicazione soggettivo del regolamento, la legge applicabile, il principio dell’automatico riconoscimento delle decisioni e la correlata tematica dell’ordine pubblico, nonché la figura del curatore. Si approfondisce l’attività degli Stati membri nel dotarsi di norme di coordinamento ( esemplare il caso della Spagna e della Germania) sottolineando il silenzio del legislatore italiano che, nonostante le numerose riforme in materia, a tutt’oggi non ha ideato un sistema in grado di coordinare la normativa nazionale con la struttura del regolamento europeo. Nella terza parte l'autrice approfondisce la giurisdizione nel regolamento n. 1346/2000. Si individuano le parole chiave: Comi e dipendenza, i cui significati sono sfumati seguendo le posizioni della Corte di Giustizia, (Leading Case Eurofood sino a Interedil) e si mette in discussione, nel panorama attuale, la tenuta di tali criteri giurisdizionali. Sempre intorno al concetto di Comi, si analizzano: la giurisdizione verso gruppi di imprese disciplina assente nel regolamento, i rapporti tra procedura principale e secondaria , la giurisdizione in materia di azioni connesse e/o correlate (Gourdain vs Nadler/Seagon vs Deko Marty). Il capitolo conclusivo offre una panoramica delle proposte finalizzate ad un’implementazione della struttura del regolamento sull’insolvenza. Numerose, infatti, sono le proposte a livello dottrinale e da parte degli organi comunitari in vista della scadenza del Report della Commissione Europea sulla applicazione del regolamento 1346 del 2000 (art. 46).

Answering the Call of the European Court of Justice in Eurofoods a Proposed Package of Due Process Rights with a View Toward the 2012 Revision of the European Insolvency Regulation. IES WORKING PAPER 3/2011

This paper anticipates the 2012 revision of the European Insolvency Regulation, which is the sole Union legislation on the subject of cross border insolvency proceedings. The paper first describes the historical background of the Regulation. The salient point of the historical discussion is that the Regulation is the product of forty years of negotiation and arises from a historical context that is no longer applicable to current economic realities, i.e. it provides for liquidation, not reorganization, it doesn’t deal with cross border groups of companies, and it lacks an effective mechanism for transparency and creditor participation. The paper then reviews the unique hybrid jurisdictional system of concurrent universal and territorial proceedings that the Regulation imposes. It looks at this scheme from a practical viewpoint, i.e. what issues arise with concurrent proceedings in two states, involving the same assets, the same creditors, and the same company. The paper then focuses on a significant issue raised by the European Court of Justice in the Eurofoods case, i.e. the need to comply with fundamental due process principles that, while not articulated in the Regulation, lie at the core of Union law. Specifically, the paper considers the ramifications of the Court’s holding that “a Member State may refuse to recognize insolvency proceedings opened in another Member State where the decision to open the proceedings was taken in flagrant breach of the fundamental right to be heard.” In response to the Court’s direction, this paper proposes a package of due process rights, consisting principally of an accessible, efficient and useful insolvency database, the infrastructure of which already exists, but the content and use of which has not yet been developed. As part of a cohesive three part due process package, the paper also proposes the formation of cross border creditors' committees and the establishment of a European Insolvency Administrator. Finally, on the institutional level, this paper proposes that the revision of the Regulation and the development of the insolvency database not only need to be coordinated, but need to be conceptualized, managed and undertaken, not as the separate efforts of diverse institutions, but as a single, unified endeavor.