On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

Can a Newly Proposed Mechanism for Allocating Contracts in U.S. Electricity Wholesale Markets Lead to Lower Prices? A Game Theoretic Analysis

This study of the wholesale electricity market compares the cost-minimizing performance of the auction mechanism currently in place in U.S. markets with the performance of a proposed replacement. The current mechanism chooses an allocation of contracts that minimizes a fictional cost calculated using pay-as-offer pricing. Then suppliers are paid the market clearing price. The proposed mechanism uses the market clearing price in the allocation phase as well as in the payment phase. In concentrated markets, the proposed mechanism outperforms the current mechanism even when strategic behavior by suppliers is taken into account. The advantage of the proposed mechanism increases with increased price competition.

Environmental scan report on artificial intelligence : strategy considerations for the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

"December 1983."

A report on international markets for U.S. consumer goods : consumer goods research.

Mode of access: Internet.

Tuna : competitive conditions affecting the U.S. and European tuna industries in domestic and foreign markets : report to the Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, and the Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, investigation no. 332-291 under section 332 of the Tariff Act of 1930

Mode of access: Internet.

U.S. solar and conservation technologies in international markets [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Energy Development and Applications and the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, June 3, 17, 21, 1982.

"No. 132."

U.S. Commercial Center, São Paulo : your ticket to Brazil, one of the world's fastest-growing markets.

Mode of access: Internet.

Credit flows and capital availabilty in U.S. markets : hearing before the Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-eighth Congress, first session, March 22, 1983.

Item 1013-A, 1013-B (microfiche)

U.S. Commercial Center, Shanghai : your ticket to China, one of the world's fastest-growing markets.

Mode of access: Internet.

U.S. commercial centers : your ticket to the world's fastest-growing markets.

Mode of access: Internet.

Remarks of Mr. Buchanan of Pennsylvania, in reply to Mr. Davis, of Massachusetts, against the Independent treasury bill. Senate U. S. March 3, 1840.

Caption: Mr. Buchanan and Mr. Davis.

New markets for U.S. agricultural commodities : a pictorial report of foreign market development.

Cover title.

Telecommunications : development of competition in local telephone markets : report to the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Business Rights, and Competition, Committee on the Judiciary, U.S. Senate /

"B-283167"--P. 3.

Is there timing ability in currency markets? Evidence from ADR issuances

Is there timing ability in the exchange rate markets? We address this question by examining foreign firms' decisions to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Specifically, we test whether foreign firms consider currency market conditions in their ADR issuance decisions and, in doing so, display some ability to time their local exchange rate market. We study ADR issuances in the U.S. stock market between 1976 and 2003. We find that foreign firms tend to issue ADRs after their local currency has been abnormally strong against the U.S. dollar and before their local currency becomes abnormally weak. This evidence is statistically significant even after controlling for local and U.S. past and future stock market performance and predicable exchange rate movements. Currency market timing is especially significant i) for value companies, relatively small (yet absolutely large) companies issuing relatively large amounts of ADRs, companies with higher currency exposure, manufacturing companies, and emerging market companies, ii) during currency crises (when mispricings are rife) and after the integration of the issuer's local financial market with the world capital markets, iii) when the ADR issue raises capital for the issuing firm (Level III ADR), and iv) regardless of the identity of the underwriting investment bank. Currency market timing is also economically significant since it translates into total savings for the issuing firms of about $646 million (or 1.86% of the total capital-raising ADR issue volume). In contrast, we find no evidence of currency timing ability in a control sample made of non-capital raising ADRs (Level II ADRs). These findings suggest that some companies may have, at least occasionally, private information about foreign exchange.